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| Argentina's presidential run-off vote could bring political shift to Latin America | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Argentina is gearing up for its first-ever presidential run-off on Sunday, a vote with regional ramifications for the progressive, leftwing movements that have dominated Latin American politics for the past decade. | Argentina is gearing up for its first-ever presidential run-off on Sunday, a vote with regional ramifications for the progressive, leftwing movements that have dominated Latin American politics for the past decade. |
| Polls indicate centre-right opposition candidate Mauricio Macri leads the ruling camp candidate Daniel Scioli, suggesting the political tide could be about to turn in the region’s fourth most populous nation. | Polls indicate centre-right opposition candidate Mauricio Macri leads the ruling camp candidate Daniel Scioli, suggesting the political tide could be about to turn in the region’s fourth most populous nation. |
| Opinion surveys have often proved misleading, but after a disappointing result in the first round, the ruling Victory Front know they have an uphill task to maintain control of the Casa Rosada. | Opinion surveys have often proved misleading, but after a disappointing result in the first round, the ruling Victory Front know they have an uphill task to maintain control of the Casa Rosada. |
| “Macri is ahead by between five and eight points according to some polls, while others put the difference as high as 16,” says Sergio Berensztein, a professor of political science at Di Tella University in Buenos Aires. The opposition candidate also appears to be dominating social networks, with 1.8m Twitter followers compared to Scioli’s 1m, and 2.8m Facebook friends against Scioli’s 1.5m. | “Macri is ahead by between five and eight points according to some polls, while others put the difference as high as 16,” says Sergio Berensztein, a professor of political science at Di Tella University in Buenos Aires. The opposition candidate also appears to be dominating social networks, with 1.8m Twitter followers compared to Scioli’s 1m, and 2.8m Facebook friends against Scioli’s 1.5m. |
| Regardless of who wins, the election will mark at least a temporary end to rule by the Kirchners, which started with former president Néstor Kirchner in 2003. His widow and successor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who took over in 2007, has been a vocal critic of capitalism, globalisation and neoliberalism. When she steps down on 10 December, like-minded leaders in Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia will lose a prominent ally. | Regardless of who wins, the election will mark at least a temporary end to rule by the Kirchners, which started with former president Néstor Kirchner in 2003. His widow and successor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who took over in 2007, has been a vocal critic of capitalism, globalisation and neoliberalism. When she steps down on 10 December, like-minded leaders in Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia will lose a prominent ally. |
| Scioli belongs to the same party, but he is closer to the political centre and more inclined to build ties with wealthy nations – a middling stance that is part of the reason why he has struggled to inherit the popularity of Fernández despite her endorsement. | Scioli belongs to the same party, but he is closer to the political centre and more inclined to build ties with wealthy nations – a middling stance that is part of the reason why he has struggled to inherit the popularity of Fernández despite her endorsement. |
| Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, would take Argentina in a different direction. He has promised to make the country more appealing to foreign investors by curbing inflation and mending ties with hold-out creditors – referred to as “vulture funds” by Kirchner – who have rejected the country’s previous efforts to restructure its debt. Critics say he is a rightwing, free-market advocate who will erode welfare programs and government support for social movements. | Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, would take Argentina in a different direction. He has promised to make the country more appealing to foreign investors by curbing inflation and mending ties with hold-out creditors – referred to as “vulture funds” by Kirchner – who have rejected the country’s previous efforts to restructure its debt. Critics say he is a rightwing, free-market advocate who will erode welfare programs and government support for social movements. |
| In an escalation of the rhetoric on Thursday, Scioli accused Macri of being a “stuck-up” candidate from a rich neighbourhood who had made “a pact with the IMF and the vulture funds”. | In an escalation of the rhetoric on Thursday, Scioli accused Macri of being a “stuck-up” candidate from a rich neighbourhood who had made “a pact with the IMF and the vulture funds”. |
| His supporters have tried to take that message to the streets and social networks. Hostile graffiti – such as “Macri = Hunger” – is increasingly evident on the walls of Buenos Aires. | His supporters have tried to take that message to the streets and social networks. Hostile graffiti – such as “Macri = Hunger” – is increasingly evident on the walls of Buenos Aires. |
| But Scioli’s efforts to play the class card have been undermined by his own personal wealth and longstanding association with the more market-friendly wing of his party. | But Scioli’s efforts to play the class card have been undermined by his own personal wealth and longstanding association with the more market-friendly wing of his party. |
| Related: Shadow of Perón looms large over Argentina's presidential election | Related: Shadow of Perón looms large over Argentina's presidential election |
| Macri meanwhile, has shied away from the “conservative” label. Eschewing class rhetoric, he has preferred to attack his opponent personally, most recently describing Macri as “a real disappointment.” By contrast, the frontrunner has presented himself as a moderate who can appeal to supporters of Peronism – the populist movement that has dominated the nation’s politics for most of the past 70 years. | Macri meanwhile, has shied away from the “conservative” label. Eschewing class rhetoric, he has preferred to attack his opponent personally, most recently describing Macri as “a real disappointment.” By contrast, the frontrunner has presented himself as a moderate who can appeal to supporters of Peronism – the populist movement that has dominated the nation’s politics for most of the past 70 years. |
| When it comes to foreign affairs, however, Macri is unequivocally opposed to Kirchner’s policies. As well as taking a less confrontational position on the Falkland Islands dispute with the United Kingdom and a less friendly stance towards Iran, he has been openly critical of the support Argentina has given in recent years to Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and Cuba’s Raúl Castro. | When it comes to foreign affairs, however, Macri is unequivocally opposed to Kirchner’s policies. As well as taking a less confrontational position on the Falkland Islands dispute with the United Kingdom and a less friendly stance towards Iran, he has been openly critical of the support Argentina has given in recent years to Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro and Cuba’s Raúl Castro. |
| In the final presidential debate this week, Macri threatened to propose the expulsion of Venezuela from the Mercosur regional trading bloc, over alleged human rights abuses. In a later press conference, he declared himself the antithesis of Venezuelan-style “21st century socialism”, saying he represented “21st century development”. | In the final presidential debate this week, Macri threatened to propose the expulsion of Venezuela from the Mercosur regional trading bloc, over alleged human rights abuses. In a later press conference, he declared himself the antithesis of Venezuelan-style “21st century socialism”, saying he represented “21st century development”. |
| Macri has also demand the release of opposition Venezuelan politician Leopóldo López, who was imprisoned last year for inciting violence – charges that many consider politically motivated. | Macri has also demand the release of opposition Venezuelan politician Leopóldo López, who was imprisoned last year for inciting violence – charges that many consider politically motivated. |
| Venezuela’s leaders – who face a tough electoral test of their own in parliamentary polls early next month – have bristled at Macri’s comments. “Don’t get involved in our internal affairs and we won’t get involved in yours,” said Jorge Rodríguez, the campaign chief for Maduro’s party. | Venezuela’s leaders – who face a tough electoral test of their own in parliamentary polls early next month – have bristled at Macri’s comments. “Don’t get involved in our internal affairs and we won’t get involved in yours,” said Jorge Rodríguez, the campaign chief for Maduro’s party. |
| The aftershocks of a Macri victory would be felt across the region, said Raúl Bernal-Meza, a professor of international relations at the University of Buenos Aires. | The aftershocks of a Macri victory would be felt across the region, said Raúl Bernal-Meza, a professor of international relations at the University of Buenos Aires. |
| “In Latin America, particularly South America, there would be a realignment,” he predicted. “Venezuela and Ecuador in particular, would be subject to questioning regarding policies that do not defend or protect human rights and the democratic system.” By contrast, he said Argentina would build closer ties to Chile, Colombia and Mexico. | “In Latin America, particularly South America, there would be a realignment,” he predicted. “Venezuela and Ecuador in particular, would be subject to questioning regarding policies that do not defend or protect human rights and the democratic system.” By contrast, he said Argentina would build closer ties to Chile, Colombia and Mexico. |
| In broader terms, a shift this Sunday would herald closer bilateral trade relations with the United States and less of a focus on regional alliances with ideologically sympathetic neighbours. | In broader terms, a shift this Sunday would herald closer bilateral trade relations with the United States and less of a focus on regional alliances with ideologically sympathetic neighbours. |
| “A Macri victory would signal a political change in the region,” said Rafael Duarte Villa, a political scientist at the University of São Paulo. “The left-wing governments that have been in power for the last 10 to 12 years could be substituted by more liberal governments.” | “A Macri victory would signal a political change in the region,” said Rafael Duarte Villa, a political scientist at the University of São Paulo. “The left-wing governments that have been in power for the last 10 to 12 years could be substituted by more liberal governments.” |
| Ties with Brazil are unlikely to feel much of a direct impact because of the close commercial relationship between the two neighbours and the relatively moderate centre-left politics of president Dilma Rousseff. But Brazilian newspapers have predicted their country could be dragged into regional disputes if Argentina proposes the ejection of Venezuela from Mercusor. | Ties with Brazil are unlikely to feel much of a direct impact because of the close commercial relationship between the two neighbours and the relatively moderate centre-left politics of president Dilma Rousseff. But Brazilian newspapers have predicted their country could be dragged into regional disputes if Argentina proposes the ejection of Venezuela from Mercusor. |
| Officials in Brazil’s ruling Workers Party also fear a change in government in Argentina could have a knock-on effect, adding to public pressure on Rousseff, whose popularity is down to single digits due to recession and corruption scandals. | Officials in Brazil’s ruling Workers Party also fear a change in government in Argentina could have a knock-on effect, adding to public pressure on Rousseff, whose popularity is down to single digits due to recession and corruption scandals. |
| The left is on the defensive. Its supporters are hoping that the polls will be wrong once again, but many are anxious. Ahead of the results on Sunday night, this side of the political spectrum appears the most uneasy - and not just in Argentina. | The left is on the defensive. Its supporters are hoping that the polls will be wrong once again, but many are anxious. Ahead of the results on Sunday night, this side of the political spectrum appears the most uneasy - and not just in Argentina. |