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| How Isis attack in Paris changed the landscape of militancy | How Isis attack in Paris changed the landscape of militancy |
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| The headline is brutally uncompromising. The letters, in red over an image of French firefighters treating a casualty, spell two words: “Just Horror”. | |
| On the next page is a phrase attributed to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian street thug turned militant who a decade ago in Iraq founded the group that was eventually to evolve into Islamic State. “The spark has been lit … and its heat will continue to intensify … until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq,” it reads. | |
| Dabiq is a village in northern Syria, currently under Isis control, where Islamic apocalyptic prophesies site the final battle between good and evil, belief and unbelief, the west and Islam. It is also the name of the Isis magazine, the 12th edition of which was published three days ago. | Dabiq is a village in northern Syria, currently under Isis control, where Islamic apocalyptic prophesies site the final battle between good and evil, belief and unbelief, the west and Islam. It is also the name of the Isis magazine, the 12th edition of which was published three days ago. |
| A week after the killings in Paris, analysts, officials and even rival militants are struggling to grasp the changed landscape of international militancy. | |
| “What Isis have done is up the attack portfolio to a new level … We are in the middle of a new wave of international terrorism after seeing it decline for a few years,” said Seth Jones, an analyst at the Rand Corporation, Washington. | “What Isis have done is up the attack portfolio to a new level … We are in the middle of a new wave of international terrorism after seeing it decline for a few years,” said Seth Jones, an analyst at the Rand Corporation, Washington. |
| The 65 pages of the new issue of Dabiq magazine give an overview of the ambitions and aims of Isis, showing how its strategy of international terrorism, complements a strategy of territorial expansion. Articles cover the group’s campaign in Yemen, Somalia and Bangladesh, countries where the group is working hard to establish a greater presence. | |
| Responsibility for terrorist operations spanning an even greater swath of land is claimed too: in Sinai, where Isis brought down a plane full of Russian tourists last month, as well as in Israel, Australia and the US. | Responsibility for terrorist operations spanning an even greater swath of land is claimed too: in Sinai, where Isis brought down a plane full of Russian tourists last month, as well as in Israel, Australia and the US. |
| Pages are devoted to a bitter critique of al-Qaida, the veteran jihadi organisation whose leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is dismissed as a “figurehead” and whose footsoldiers are described as hypocrites. This is an important reminder of the deep rivalry between Isis and al-Qaida, founded by Osama bin Laden in the late 1980s. | |
| Isis, under its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, broke away from the older group and says it is the only true heir to Bin Laden’s legacy. This claim to be the sole legitimate jihadi organisation active today is integral to the Isis project, particularly the consolidation of the caliphate declared by Baghdadi last year. Isis affiliates around the world, known as wilayat, or provinces, are not just fighting local authorities, but also, often, al-Qaida-linked factions or other Islamic militant movements, such as the Taliban in Afghanistan. | |
| Richard Barrett, an analyst and former head of counter-terrorism at MI6, said the Paris attacks would boost these campaigns. “They will really hearten and encourage the external provinces. They will get more recruits etc, but more than anything will be more motivated. Some have had setbacks but this tells them that this is not a failing enterprise,” he said. | |
| In Dabiq, Isis makes its claim to overall leadership of all militants very clear, echoing Bin Laden’s own invectives against the fitna, or division and sedition within the Muslim community, which the Saudi-born extremist believed was the main reason for the problems of the Islamic world. | |
| “How many times has a leader been disobeyed in some of the lands and arenas of jihad, and the price paid as a result was calamity and tribulation,” an editorial in the magazine argues. | “How many times has a leader been disobeyed in some of the lands and arenas of jihad, and the price paid as a result was calamity and tribulation,” an editorial in the magazine argues. |
| But Isis is not having everything its own way. The group is expanding in Egypt, in Libya, and has built support among young people along the north African coastline. But relations with the unpredictable and brutal Boko Haram in Nigeria remain unclear, an attempt to expand into Algeria met with disaster and so far the Somalia-based al-Shabaab, nominally an a-Qaida affiliate, has refused the calls of the Isis central command to pledge allegiance and thus establish a new province of the caliphate in the horn of Africa. Two minor factions swore a bayat, or oath of loyalty, to al-Baghdadi but now face reprisals from the rest of the group. | But Isis is not having everything its own way. The group is expanding in Egypt, in Libya, and has built support among young people along the north African coastline. But relations with the unpredictable and brutal Boko Haram in Nigeria remain unclear, an attempt to expand into Algeria met with disaster and so far the Somalia-based al-Shabaab, nominally an a-Qaida affiliate, has refused the calls of the Isis central command to pledge allegiance and thus establish a new province of the caliphate in the horn of Africa. Two minor factions swore a bayat, or oath of loyalty, to al-Baghdadi but now face reprisals from the rest of the group. |
| It is in Afghanistan that Isis is having one of its toughest battles. “In Afghanistan there is an opportunity to attack al-Qaida dominance as well as exploit chaos,” said Barrett. | |
| Established in small pockets of the east, north and central south of the country, the local recruits of Isis have shocked Afghan officials with their sheer brutality in recent months. Many are former fighters of the Taliban and believe the 20-year-old movement, which has been involved in peace negotiations, is becoming too moderate. “Isis offers something very radical. They are building up their infrastructure in some areas. There’s a particular concern over central Asia now,” said one senior Afghan official this week. | |
| However the Taliban’s recent brief capture of Kunduz, the major northern city, has underlined the disparity between the two organisations. The Taliban, under their new leader Mansour Akhtar, was able to distract and displace Afghan military forces over months across the entire country before finally launching its temporary takeover. “That gave the new emir moral courage and absolute power,” the official said. | |
| In the new Dabiq, another lengthy article is devoted to the “jihad” in Bangladesh, the unstable south Asian nation. Both Isis, which claims to be behind the deaths of two westerners and several policemen in the overwhelmingly Muslim country of 160 million, and al-Qaida, which has taken responsibility, via an affiliate, for a series of lethal machete attacks on secular bloggers and a publisher, are exploiting local political and social problems to build networks there. | In the new Dabiq, another lengthy article is devoted to the “jihad” in Bangladesh, the unstable south Asian nation. Both Isis, which claims to be behind the deaths of two westerners and several policemen in the overwhelmingly Muslim country of 160 million, and al-Qaida, which has taken responsibility, via an affiliate, for a series of lethal machete attacks on secular bloggers and a publisher, are exploiting local political and social problems to build networks there. |
| What appears clear is that the Paris attacks have intensified and accelerated a chaotic, dynamic reordering of alliances and capabilities, meaning that the hugely complex threat is increasingly difficult for security services to gauge. | What appears clear is that the Paris attacks have intensified and accelerated a chaotic, dynamic reordering of alliances and capabilities, meaning that the hugely complex threat is increasingly difficult for security services to gauge. |
| Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, long considered the most active and direct threat to the west, has moved to “a second tier”, according to Seth Jones, as the group “certainly does not have the momentum or the operatives or the equipment in place”. Isis clearly does, however. | |
| “When you look from 2001 on, you see a series of waves [of terrorism], and a threat that has increased and decresed. We are now on one of the upswings … This wave is going up rather than going down,” Jones said. | “When you look from 2001 on, you see a series of waves [of terrorism], and a threat that has increased and decresed. We are now on one of the upswings … This wave is going up rather than going down,” Jones said. |