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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/21/police-cuts-tories-community-peril-terrorism-isis
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| The Tories’ planned cuts to community policing will leave us at the mercy of Isis | The Tories’ planned cuts to community policing will leave us at the mercy of Isis |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| The threat is palpable. And the chatter is bad, very bad, among the counter-terrorists. It seems conceivable that our best defences against a Paris-style attack in Britain are in jeopardy because of arguments between the Home Office and the Treasury. | The threat is palpable. And the chatter is bad, very bad, among the counter-terrorists. It seems conceivable that our best defences against a Paris-style attack in Britain are in jeopardy because of arguments between the Home Office and the Treasury. |
| At the turn of the millennium, MI5 and UK policing, particularly the RUC and the Met, had fought the Provisional IRA and its opponents for more than 30 years. They were among the most experienced counter-terrorist organisations in the world. As the Good Friday agreement held and peace in Northern Ireland spluttered into life, there was a strong sense of a job well done. | At the turn of the millennium, MI5 and UK policing, particularly the RUC and the Met, had fought the Provisional IRA and its opponents for more than 30 years. They were among the most experienced counter-terrorist organisations in the world. As the Good Friday agreement held and peace in Northern Ireland spluttered into life, there was a strong sense of a job well done. |
| But within 18 months al-Qaida and its affiliates –across the worldand now Isis, its dreadful child – embroiled the UK in a singularity in terrorism. Police and security services have responded well, introducing effective techniques and capabilities. | But within 18 months al-Qaida and its affiliates –across the worldand now Isis, its dreadful child – embroiled the UK in a singularity in terrorism. Police and security services have responded well, introducing effective techniques and capabilities. |
| The comparisons between the threat the Provos posed and what is now being faced are stark. Isis is of an entirely different magnitude. | The comparisons between the threat the Provos posed and what is now being faced are stark. Isis is of an entirely different magnitude. |
| Except occasionally, the Provos did not seek mass casualties and, except in a hunger strike, did not seek to die themselves, both hallmarks of Isis. They usually gave warnings. They were limited to the British Isles, whereas Isis reaches across continents. They were largely made up of a small group of hardened and streetwise men, not indiscriminately targeting the disaffected and the lonely anywhere to be their recruits.They had no access to the internet or social media and could not project their deeds through a competitive 24-hour media, at which Isis is expert. They were bombing their way to a negotiating table, not merely attacking and torturing without a negotiating position of any kind. Above all, by the end the Provos were irredeemably penetrated by the intelligence agencies. Isis is not, as the past week has so clearly demonstrated. | Except occasionally, the Provos did not seek mass casualties and, except in a hunger strike, did not seek to die themselves, both hallmarks of Isis. They usually gave warnings. They were limited to the British Isles, whereas Isis reaches across continents. They were largely made up of a small group of hardened and streetwise men, not indiscriminately targeting the disaffected and the lonely anywhere to be their recruits.They had no access to the internet or social media and could not project their deeds through a competitive 24-hour media, at which Isis is expert. They were bombing their way to a negotiating table, not merely attacking and torturing without a negotiating position of any kind. Above all, by the end the Provos were irredeemably penetrated by the intelligence agencies. Isis is not, as the past week has so clearly demonstrated. |
| The magnitude of the change is well summarised by Audrey Cronin, in her 2009 book How Terrorism Ends: “No previous terrorist organisation has exhibited quite the elasticity, agility and global reach of AQ [al-Qaida], with its fluid operational style based increasingly on a common mission statement and brilliant media campaign, rather than on standard operating procedures and a pervasive operational culture.” | The magnitude of the change is well summarised by Audrey Cronin, in her 2009 book How Terrorism Ends: “No previous terrorist organisation has exhibited quite the elasticity, agility and global reach of AQ [al-Qaida], with its fluid operational style based increasingly on a common mission statement and brilliant media campaign, rather than on standard operating procedures and a pervasive operational culture.” |
| In the past weeks Isis has caused deaths by suicide bombings in Turkey, a bomb on a plane in Egypt and a massive attack in Paris. The impact of Paris in particular has highlighted the question to the UK government of what measures are necessary and feasible to protect British citizens, particularly inside the UK. | In the past weeks Isis has caused deaths by suicide bombings in Turkey, a bomb on a plane in Egypt and a massive attack in Paris. The impact of Paris in particular has highlighted the question to the UK government of what measures are necessary and feasible to protect British citizens, particularly inside the UK. |
| The measures are caught up in two separate arguments and two separate urgencies, first concerning surveillance and intrusion and the second the defence against mass attack, particularly in relation to budget cuts. Things need sorting, PDQ. | The measures are caught up in two separate arguments and two separate urgencies, first concerning surveillance and intrusion and the second the defence against mass attack, particularly in relation to budget cuts. Things need sorting, PDQ. |
| In coalition, the Conservatives could not upgrade the laws on surveillance, and even watered down existing measures by replacing control orders with much less effective, more costly and less used terrorism prevention and investigation measures. They have reintroduced a much-needed investigative powers bill, but have set a rather stately timetable for it to pass into law because of opponents in the Lords, particularly from an angry and over-large Lib Dem group. I imagine Theresa May, the home secretary, will do everything in her power to accelerate progress, dreading the outcry that would follow an attack as in France, as to who did not know what and in particular whose fault it was that they didn’t. | In coalition, the Conservatives could not upgrade the laws on surveillance, and even watered down existing measures by replacing control orders with much less effective, more costly and less used terrorism prevention and investigation measures. They have reintroduced a much-needed investigative powers bill, but have set a rather stately timetable for it to pass into law because of opponents in the Lords, particularly from an angry and over-large Lib Dem group. I imagine Theresa May, the home secretary, will do everything in her power to accelerate progress, dreading the outcry that would follow an attack as in France, as to who did not know what and in particular whose fault it was that they didn’t. |
| But it is arguments about money that are most perilous. Somewhere in government, someone powerful does not understand that intelligence does not only emerge from the supercomputers of GCHQ but also from quiet, patient police work in communities, from the work of neighbourhood police teams – one of the triumphs of UK policing in the past 10 years – building confidence in troubled areas. | But it is arguments about money that are most perilous. Somewhere in government, someone powerful does not understand that intelligence does not only emerge from the supercomputers of GCHQ but also from quiet, patient police work in communities, from the work of neighbourhood police teams – one of the triumphs of UK policing in the past 10 years – building confidence in troubled areas. |
| After the failed bombings of 21 July 2005, it emerged that local authority workers had not known where to report finding an unusual number of empty peroxide bottles in the bins under a block of flats in north London. It was the bomb factory. It could have been found before the attack. It was not found because the London-wide role of neighbourhood policing had not reached that area by then. | After the failed bombings of 21 July 2005, it emerged that local authority workers had not known where to report finding an unusual number of empty peroxide bottles in the bins under a block of flats in north London. It was the bomb factory. It could have been found before the attack. It was not found because the London-wide role of neighbourhood policing had not reached that area by then. |
| The teams are there now, though attenuated. Soon they will be gone. Police budgets, not helped by simply bizarre miscalculations around a funding formula by the Home Office, are reportedly to be cut in the autumn statement by something like 25%. Something has to give, and that will be the police community support officers because, unlike police officers, they can be made redundant. National security depends on neighbourhood security and the link between the local and the national is about to be badly damaged. | The teams are there now, though attenuated. Soon they will be gone. Police budgets, not helped by simply bizarre miscalculations around a funding formula by the Home Office, are reportedly to be cut in the autumn statement by something like 25%. Something has to give, and that will be the police community support officers because, unlike police officers, they can be made redundant. National security depends on neighbourhood security and the link between the local and the national is about to be badly damaged. |
| Ministers repeat that community policing has risen by 60% since 2009. Given that police forces have significantly diminished during that period, it is unclear, indeed opaque, as to whom they are counting in that figure. | Ministers repeat that community policing has risen by 60% since 2009. Given that police forces have significantly diminished during that period, it is unclear, indeed opaque, as to whom they are counting in that figure. |
| The response of the French police and army last weekend was fast, overwhelming and successful. British police, particularly in London, have a similar plan, in development since the 2008 Mumbai atrocities. On Thursday, a leaked document prepared for the government’s security committee made clear that the current plan for this kind of attack could not survive the cuts and UK capacity would be degraded. | The response of the French police and army last weekend was fast, overwhelming and successful. British police, particularly in London, have a similar plan, in development since the 2008 Mumbai atrocities. On Thursday, a leaked document prepared for the government’s security committee made clear that the current plan for this kind of attack could not survive the cuts and UK capacity would be degraded. |
| There is a dreadful lack of imagination here. This is the most perilous terrorist threat in our history. With their long successful track record in counter-terrorism, police have adapted well to the changing circumstances and, at the last moment, the very best defences they have built, the neighbourhood teams and the fast and accurate response to multi-site concurrent attacks, are being degraded. People die this way and governments fall. Remember Madrid in 2004 and think again. | |
| Lord Blair is a cross-bench peer and was Met police commissioner, 2005-08 | Lord Blair is a cross-bench peer and was Met police commissioner, 2005-08 |
| • Comments will be opened later today | • Comments will be opened later today |