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The Guardian view on the downed Russian jet: stay cool, Ankara and Moscow The Guardian view on the downed Russian jet: stay cool, Ankara and Moscow
(35 minutes later)
Tuesday’s downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey on the Syrian border was a nerve-jangling event. It raised the spectre of a direct confrontation between two large powers: one a Nato member, the other nuclear-armed. The already complex Syrian war suddenly threatened to spill over into something even wider. Turkey said the plane was shot down after repeated warnings that it had violated its national airspace, which Russia denies. Russia’s Vladimir Putin fired back that it was “a stab in the back carried out by the accomplices of terrorists”.Tuesday’s downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey on the Syrian border was a nerve-jangling event. It raised the spectre of a direct confrontation between two large powers: one a Nato member, the other nuclear-armed. The already complex Syrian war suddenly threatened to spill over into something even wider. Turkey said the plane was shot down after repeated warnings that it had violated its national airspace, which Russia denies. Russia’s Vladimir Putin fired back that it was “a stab in the back carried out by the accomplices of terrorists”.
Yet at the same time both sides have also been keen to avoid an uncontrollable escalation. Mr Putin said the incident would be “analysed” – suggesting a cooler tone – and although Turkey convened a Nato meeting, it chose not to activate the alliance’s collective defence clause. The harsh rhetoric on both sides speaks to domestic audiences, but the strategic risks are also obvious.Yet at the same time both sides have also been keen to avoid an uncontrollable escalation. Mr Putin said the incident would be “analysed” – suggesting a cooler tone – and although Turkey convened a Nato meeting, it chose not to activate the alliance’s collective defence clause. The harsh rhetoric on both sides speaks to domestic audiences, but the strategic risks are also obvious.
It is crucial that cool heads should prevail in Moscow, Ankara and in Nato. Yet there are also lessons to be drawn. One of these is the urgent need for restraint and better information-sharing among all those who are carrying out airstrikes over Syria. Related: Five tests for action in Syria that fail the challenge of beating Isis | Letters
It is crucial that cool heads should prevail in Moscow, Ankara and in Nato. Yet there are also lessons to be drawn. One of these is the urgent need for restraint and better information-sharing among all those who are carrying out airstrikes over Syria.
A deeper conclusion is that, despite all the official talk of a common effort, irreconcilable strategic interests continue to clash. Turkey and the western powers are still in very different places to Russia over the fate of the Assad regime. Russia’s military involvement in Syria has overwhelmingly focused on targeting western-supported anti-Assad rebels – not Isis. It is still unclear how much of that has changed since the Paris attacks, or since Moscow acknowledged that Isis had blown up a Russian civilian plane over Sinai.A deeper conclusion is that, despite all the official talk of a common effort, irreconcilable strategic interests continue to clash. Turkey and the western powers are still in very different places to Russia over the fate of the Assad regime. Russia’s military involvement in Syria has overwhelmingly focused on targeting western-supported anti-Assad rebels – not Isis. It is still unclear how much of that has changed since the Paris attacks, or since Moscow acknowledged that Isis had blown up a Russian civilian plane over Sinai.
Russia still describes all those who oppose Assad as terrorists. Turkey may have wanted to mark a red line, after Russian military activity had increased in regions close to its border. Building up a unified international coalition against Isis may be a good slogan. But, as this incident has shown, it is a slogan that involves a large helping of illusion.Russia still describes all those who oppose Assad as terrorists. Turkey may have wanted to mark a red line, after Russian military activity had increased in regions close to its border. Building up a unified international coalition against Isis may be a good slogan. But, as this incident has shown, it is a slogan that involves a large helping of illusion.