What to expect from George Osborne's 2015 autumn statement

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/25/george-osborne-autumn-statement-what-to-expect

Version 0 of 1.

Economic outlook

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility will announce its latest forecasts for economic growth and a range of other indicators, including inflation and unemployment. In July, it was expecting GDP growth of 2.4% this year and 2.3% in 2016.

Tax credits climbdown

George Osborne will be forced to explain how he will mitigate the £4.4bn worth of cuts to tax credits that were a centrepiece of his July budget, but which were subsequently rejected by the House of Lords. He has repeatedly made clear that he has listened to concerns about the policy, including from his own backbenchers – but alternative cuts, including raiding the housing benefit budget, could prove controversial.

Departmental spending

The chancellor is due to announce five-year spending plans across Whitehall departments to show how he will deliver the £20bn of cuts or tax increases required to deliver his promise of eliminating the public sector deficit by 2020-21.

Several departmental settlements, including health and defence, have already been outlined. Monday’s strategic defence and security review promised to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP; while the health deal, reached after fraught negotiations with the NHS chief executive, Simon Stevens, will deliver an extra £3.8bn next year as a downpayment on the £8bn in annual funding he has said will be needed by 2020.

Related: Autumn statement: As reality bites, revulsion could yet sink Osborne and Cameron | Polly Toynbee

A smaller surplus

In the July budget, the chancellor was aiming to run a £10bn surplus by 2020-21. He has hinted strongly that he may target a more modest total, after tax revenues have disappointed in recent months.

Housing

Osborne has promised a series of measures which he says will turn “generation rent” into “generation buy”, including 200,000 new starter homes, which will be offered to first-time buyers at a 20% discount.

Tax avoidance

The chancellor announced £5bn of anti-tax avoidance measures in his summer budget in July, but he is expected to identify new revenue-raising measures in the autumn statement.

Pensions uprating

Osborne is expected to confirm that the state pension will be uprated to £119.30 a week from next April, in line with the government’s “triple lock” promise to increase it by whichever is the highest of wage growth, inflation or 2.5%. With wage growth running at 2.9%, the latest rise will take the state pension to its highest share of average earnings for 25 years.