'Spending review 2015: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts and freezes police budget - as it happened' diff viewer (8/9)

This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on November 25, 2015 08:42 (UTC). It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/nov/25/spending-review-george-osborne-autumn-statement-

The article has changed 16 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Previous version 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Next version

Version 8	Version 9
Spending review 2015: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts - live	Spending review 2015: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts - live
2015-11-25 13:25:04 UTC	2015-11-25 14:00:07 UTC (35 minutes later)
	1.58pm GMT13:58
	John McDonnell's response to Osborne
	John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, is responding to George Osborne now. Having to respond to statements of this kind is the hardest task any parliamentarian ever has to undertake (because the opposition gets no advance warning of what is in these statements) and no one ever really triumphs in this role.
	McDonnell started by taunting Osborne for the fact that he failed completely to cut the deficit in one parliament as he promised in 2010. McDonnell’s argument was sound, although his attempt to lecture the Tories on deficit reduction and economic credibility prompted laughing from the government benches.
	McDonnell is going through cuts in the announcement now. He says that he Department for Business is almost being closed down, and that the solar energy industry is being killed off.
	He says he never expected to be outdone in nationalisation by Osborne. He says he, McDonnell, wants to nationalise rail. But Osborne wants to sell British assets to Chinese state companies.
	McDonnell brandishes a copy of Mao’s Little Red Book, and he quotes from it: “We must learn to do economic work from all, no matter who they are.” He thought this advice would come in handy for Osborne, McDonnell says.
	He says this is not an economic plan but a political fix.
	1.57pm GMT13:57
	The Office for Budget Responsibility’s new Economic and fiscal outlook is online too. Now we can see the details of today’s figures....
	Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2015
	1.49pm GMT13:49
	The Spending Review and Autumn Statement are online here.
	1.49pm GMT13:49
	Political snap summary - Real surprises, a deft U-turn and two leaps into Labour territory
	Andrew Sparrow
	John McDonnell has just stood up to respond to George Osborne. He has got quite a task, because there were some genuine political surprises there, as well as at least two leaps into Labourish territory. Quite how Osborne will fund his “good news announcements” is a total mystery, on the basis of what Osborne said, but after a few hours with the red book we should find out. But Osborne does probably deserve some credit for abandoning his tax credits completely, instead for opting for a fudge. If you are going to do a U-turn, you may well do one properly, and Osborne pulled this off with some aplomb. His announcement on police funding was a real surprise too (although we need to see the small print). More interesting were the apprenticeship levy - a £3bn tax on big business, not unlike Gordon Brown’s 1997 windfall tax, and more ambitious than anything Labour proposed at the election - and the punitive 3% stamp duty for buy to let landlords, another move that sounds Jeremy Corbyn than Ed Balls.
	1.48pm GMT13:48
	1.43pm GMT13:43
	Here’s Heather Stewart on today’s Autumn Statement:
	George Osborne has executed a complete U-turn on his controversial cuts to tax credits, as he delivered what he called, “a big spending review from a government that does big things”.
	Osborne had promised to modify the plans, which would have seen 3m low-income families lose an average of £1,000 a year, after they were rejected by the House of Lords, and criticised by Conservative backbenchers.
	Delivering his combined autumn statement and spending review, the chancellor said higher than expected tax revenues and lower interest payments on government debt had opened up an extra £27bn of fiscal wriggle-room, which would allow him to cancel the £4.4bn cuts altogether.....
	Related: George Osborne scraps tax credit cuts in welfare U-turn
	Updated at 1.46pm GMT
	1.40pm GMT13:40
	Economic snap summary: Better than feared
	Graeme Wearden
	You always expect a few white rabbits from George Osborne.
	But this time, the Office for Budget Responsibility handed the chancellor a plump bunny, with better growth forecasts despite recent signs of weakness in the global economy.
	And that means the chancellor has wrong footed City economists who expected slightly worse deficit figures today.
	Low global interest rates have probably cut the bill for servicing the national debt. The OBR must also be more optimistic about tax receipts - despite the surprise fall in October. That adds up to an unexpected windfall for the chancellor, allowing him to stick to that surplus target in this parliament and also avoid cuts to the police. But the axe has still swung elsewhere.
	Big news: no police cuts. #AS2015
	The OBR are releasing its latest economic and fiscal forecasts now, so we’ll soon be able to see the details [it’s also complicated by reclassifications to the national debt]. Past history shows that the statement may look less rosy under closer examination....
	The spending cuts outlined today mean the chancellor is persevering with a Thatcher-style reshaping of the UK economy, cutting the state:
	Thatcher left office with spending/GDP 6.4% lower than when she arrived. Osborne will hit 6% in 2015.#spendingreview pic.twitter.com/J6VlnxtH5K
	And while the the tax credit u-turn will be welcomed by poorer workers, let’s not forget that pensioners can also look forward to more money - thanks to the ‘triple-lock’.
	Updated at 1.50pm GMT
	1.38pm GMT13:38
	Osborne says the Tories were elected as one nation government. And they are governing as such, he says, as “the mainstream representatives of the working people of Britain”.
	1.37pm GMT13:37
	Police budgets to be protected
	Osborne says the counter-terrorism budget is going up 30%.
	Osborne says some people have said police budgets should be cut by 10%. (This is a reference to Andy Burnham, the shadow home secretary, who said the police could live with cuts of 10%.)
	But he disagrees, he says.
	Osborne says the police protect us, so we will protect them.
	1.37pm GMT13:37
	Is the party over for buy-to-let landlords? Newsnight’s Duncan Weldon suggests so:
	That seems like a big hit to the buy to let sector. #spendingreview
	Updated at 1.37pm GMT
	1.36pm GMT13:36
	Conservative backbencher David Davis (former shadow home secretary) has also given Osborne the thumbs-up:
	David Davis on tax credits U-turn: brilliant news, chancellor to be congratulated for listening to concerns of b'benchers and voters
	1.35pm GMT13:35
	Osborne turns to security.
	It is in the national interest to spend on aid, he says.
	1.34pm GMT13:34
	Osborne turns to house building. Some details of his plans emerged overnight.
	He says he wants to do much more than in the past.
	We are the builders, Osborne says, using the slogan he used in his party conference speech.
	1.29pm GMT13:29
	Osborne says under-used courts will be closed. The £700m saved will be used to introduce new technology into the court service.
	Nine new prisons to be built.
	Holloway prison, the biggest women’s prison in Western Europe, will close, he says. The women will serve their time in more modern prisons.
	1.28pm GMT13:28
	Apprenticeship levy to raise £3bn a year
	Osborne turns to apprenticeships.
	1.26pm GMT13:26
	1.25pm GMT13:25
	Osborne says the arbitrary schools funding system will be replaced.
	He commends MPs from all parties who have campaign for this.
1.24pm GMT13:24	1.24pm GMT13:24
Osborne says sixth form colleges will be able to become academies, so they do not have to pay VAT.	Osborne says sixth form colleges will be able to become academies, so they do not have to pay VAT.
Councils running schools will become a thing of the past.	Councils running schools will become a thing of the past.
Schools funding will increase by £10bn.	Schools funding will increase by £10bn.
1.23pm GMT13:23	1.23pm GMT13:23
Osborne says free school meals and the pupil premium will be maintained.	Osborne says free school meals and the pupil premium will be maintained.
He says the national citizen service will be expanded. By the end of the decade, there will be places for 300,000 students.	He says the national citizen service will be expanded. By the end of the decade, there will be places for 300,000 students.
1.22pm GMT13:22	1.22pm GMT13:22
Osborne says the government is making the largest ever investment in free childcare. It will be available from 2017. But it will only be available to families working a certain number of hours per week.	Osborne says the government is making the largest ever investment in free childcare. It will be available from 2017. But it will only be available to families working a certain number of hours per week.
1.22pm GMT13:22	1.22pm GMT13:22
The Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Owen Smith, warns that low-income households on Universal Credit are still vulnerable:	The Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Owen Smith, warns that low-income households on Universal Credit are still vulnerable:
Let's be clear: the tax credit reverse is a victory - but the 140k families already on UC will still suffer the full cut 1/2	Let's be clear: the tax credit reverse is a victory - but the 140k families already on UC will still suffer the full cut 1/2
And all families that would newly qualify for Tax Creds in 2018 will suffer the full cut under UC - so this is not the full & fair reversal	And all families that would newly qualify for Tax Creds in 2018 will suffer the full cut under UC - so this is not the full & fair reversal
1.21pm GMT13:21	1.21pm GMT13:21
Osborne says sound public finances can help the most disadvantaged.	Osborne says sound public finances can help the most disadvantaged.
Inequality is down, and child poverty is down, he says.	Inequality is down, and child poverty is down, he says.
The other side talks of social justice; the Conservatives deliver it, he says.	The other side talks of social justice; the Conservatives deliver it, he says.
1.21pm GMT13:21	1.21pm GMT13:21
Osborne says this is similar to the way Libor fines are used to help service charities. He names various ones that will benefit from Libor money, including the Winston Churchill Memorial Trust.	Osborne says this is similar to the way Libor fines are used to help service charities. He names various ones that will benefit from Libor money, including the Winston Churchill Memorial Trust.
And there will be a memorial for the victims of 7/7.	And there will be a memorial for the victims of 7/7.
1.20pm GMT13:20	1.20pm GMT13:20
Osborne says there are many charities that support vulnerable women.	Osborne says there are many charities that support vulnerable women.
Some 300,000 people have signed a petition calling for the removal of the tampon tax.	Some 300,000 people have signed a petition calling for the removal of the tampon tax.
The government wants to change EU law so it can abolish that altogether.	The government wants to change EU law so it can abolish that altogether.
But, until then, the £15m raised from the tax will go to women’s charities, he says.	But, until then, the £15m raised from the tax will go to women’s charities, he says.
1.18pm GMT13:18	1.18pm GMT13:18
Osborne says cuts in arts funding are a false economy.	Osborne says cuts in arts funding are a false economy.
The DCMS’s administrative budget will be cut by 20%.	The DCMS’s administrative budget will be cut by 20%.
But the Arts Council’s budget will be protected, and free museum entry will be maintained.	But the Arts Council’s budget will be protected, and free museum entry will be maintained.
He says Alan Johnson has lobbied him for money for Hull’s year of culture. He will oblige, he says. He says Johnson has contributed to arts, while his front bench has contributed to comedy.	He says Alan Johnson has lobbied him for money for Hull’s year of culture. He will oblige, he says. He says Johnson has contributed to arts, while his front bench has contributed to comedy.
1.17pm GMT13:17	1.17pm GMT13:17
Osborne says the Department for Business budget is being cut by 17%.	Osborne says the Department for Business budget is being cut by 17%.
In the last parliament the budget for science was protected in cash terms. In this parliament it will be protected in real terms, he says.	In the last parliament the budget for science was protected in cash terms. In this parliament it will be protected in real terms, he says.
The Cavendish laboratories in Cambridge will be transformed.	The Cavendish laboratories in Cambridge will be transformed.
Paul Nurse, a Nobel laureate, has just published a report into research laboratories. Its recommendations will be published.	Paul Nurse, a Nobel laureate, has just published a report into research laboratories. Its recommendations will be published.
1.16pm GMT13:16	1.16pm GMT13:16
Professor Geraint Johnes, Professor of Economics at Lancaster University, tells us:	Professor Geraint Johnes, Professor of Economics at Lancaster University, tells us:
“New freedoms have been given to councils to realise income generated through sales of property. Useful, but can only be done once.”	“New freedoms have been given to councils to realise income generated through sales of property. Useful, but can only be done once.”
1.15pm GMT13:15	1.15pm GMT13:15
Osborne says the small business rate relief scheme is being extended for another year.	Osborne says the small business rate relief scheme is being extended for another year.
1.14pm GMT13:14	1.14pm GMT13:14
Osborne says support for climate finance is being increased.	Osborne says support for climate finance is being increased.
A new energy scheme will save £30 a year from the energy bills of 30m households, he says.	A new energy scheme will save £30 a year from the energy bills of 30m households, he says.
The rules affecting the compensation culture around minor motor industries are changing. That should cut car insurance, he says.	The rules affecting the compensation culture around minor motor industries are changing. That should cut car insurance, he says.
1.12pm GMT13:12	1.12pm GMT13:12
Osborne says Defra’s budget is falling by 15%.	Osborne says Defra’s budget is falling by 15%.
But there will be £2bn for flood defences.	But there will be £2bn for flood defences.
Mentioning forestry, he says the government will not be making them mistake of trying to privatise them again.	Mentioning forestry, he says the government will not be making them mistake of trying to privatise them again.
And the government will carry on with the scheme that cuts South West Water bills by £50.	And the government will carry on with the scheme that cuts South West Water bills by £50.
1.11pm GMT13:11	1.11pm GMT13:11
Osborne says Britain topped the league table of best places in the world to invest in infrastructure spending in a survey last week.	Osborne says Britain topped the league table of best places in the world to invest in infrastructure spending in a survey last week.
Department for Transport spending will be cut by 37%, he says. But its capital spending will go up by around 50%.	Department for Transport spending will be cut by 37%, he says. But its capital spending will go up by around 50%.
And London will get an £11bn investment in transport infrastructure.	And London will get an £11bn investment in transport infrastructure.
Kent will also get £250m to deal with the problems associated with Operation Stack.	Kent will also get £250m to deal with the problems associated with Operation Stack.
1.11pm GMT13:11	1.11pm GMT13:11
Mary Ann Seighart, who chairs the Social Market Foundation, isn’t impressed by Osborne’s plan to allow local councils to sell off surplus properties to fund day-to-day spending:	Mary Ann Seighart, who chairs the Social Market Foundation, isn’t impressed by Osborne’s plan to allow local councils to sell off surplus properties to fund day-to-day spending:
So will councils be allowed to spend capital receipts on current spending? Not very sustainable, that. #spendingreview	So will councils be allowed to spend capital receipts on current spending? Not very sustainable, that. #spendingreview
1.09pm GMT13:09	1.09pm GMT13:09
Osborne says he wants a deal for Scotland that is fair and fit to last.	Osborne says he wants a deal for Scotland that is fair and fit to last.
If Scotland had voted for independence, it would have its own spending review this autumn. With oil revenues down by around 90%, there would have been catastrophic cuts. But luckily that was avoided, he says.	If Scotland had voted for independence, it would have its own spending review this autumn. With oil revenues down by around 90%, there would have been catastrophic cuts. But luckily that was avoided, he says.
1.08pm GMT13:08	1.08pm GMT13:08
Osborne says Northern Ireland’s block grant will be over £11bn by the end of this parliament.	Osborne says Northern Ireland’s block grant will be over £11bn by the end of this parliament.
And he says he is giving a funding floor to Wales, set at 115%. And the government will legislate so the Welsh assembly can get powers over income tax without a referendum.	And he says he is giving a funding floor to Wales, set at 115%. And the government will legislate so the Welsh assembly can get powers over income tax without a referendum.
1.06pm GMT13:06	1.06pm GMT13:06
Osborne says local government is sitting on property worth £250bn.	Osborne says local government is sitting on property worth £250bn.
So councils will be able to keep 100% of the receipts from the assets they sell, he says.	So councils will be able to keep 100% of the receipts from the assets they sell, he says.
By the end of this parliament local government will be spending the same in cash terms as it does today.	By the end of this parliament local government will be spending the same in cash terms as it does today.
1.05pm GMT13:05	1.05pm GMT13:05
Osborne turns to his northern powerhouse vision, and his plans to devolve power to local authorities.	Osborne turns to his northern powerhouse vision, and his plans to devolve power to local authorities.
Some 26 new or extended enterprise zones are being created, he says.	Some 26 new or extended enterprise zones are being created, he says.
As he said at the Tory conference, he is abolishing the uniform national business rates. Power over business rates will be devolved.	As he said at the Tory conference, he is abolishing the uniform national business rates. Power over business rates will be devolved.
1.03pm GMT13:03	1.03pm GMT13:03
Osborne says the new rate for the basic state pension will be £155.65.	Osborne says the new rate for the basic state pension will be £155.65.
1.02pm GMT13:02	1.02pm GMT13:02
Osborne says the basic state pension will increase by £3.35 a week next year, to £119.30 a week.	Osborne says the basic state pension will increase by £3.35 a week next year, to £119.30 a week.
Updated at 1.03pm GMT	Updated at 1.03pm GMT
1.02pm GMT13:02	1.02pm GMT13:02
On Twitter Rupert Harrison, Osborne’s former chief of staff, has explained why Osborne abandoned the tax credit cuts.	On Twitter Rupert Harrison, Osborne’s former chief of staff, has explained why Osborne abandoned the tax credit cuts.
After Lords defeat, today's tax credit changes a tribute to GO's favourite rule of politics: you have to know how to count (hat tip LBJ)	After Lords defeat, today's tax credit changes a tribute to GO's favourite rule of politics: you have to know how to count (hat tip LBJ)
Or in other words - if you have a problem, fix it properly... Made possible by growing economy and better public finance forecasts	Or in other words - if you have a problem, fix it properly... Made possible by growing economy and better public finance forecasts
1.01pm GMT13:01	1.01pm GMT13:01
Labour MP Alison McGovern, of Wirral South, credits tax credit campaigners:	Labour MP Alison McGovern, of Wirral South, credits tax credit campaigners:
Need detail but hopefully massive #taxcredits u-turn means bit better Christmas for some of my constituents. Thanks to all who campaigned x	Need detail but hopefully massive #taxcredits u-turn means bit better Christmas for some of my constituents. Thanks to all who campaigned x
1.01pm GMT13:01	1.01pm GMT13:01
Osborne turns to social care.	Osborne turns to social care.
He says he is increasing the better care fund, to help the integration of health and social care.	He says he is increasing the better care fund, to help the integration of health and social care.
By the end of this parliament health and social care spending will have risen, he says.	By the end of this parliament health and social care spending will have risen, he says.
1.00pm GMT13:00	1.00pm GMT13:00
Osborne turns to mental health, and he praises Andrew Mitchell, Norman Lamb and Alastair Campbell for their campaigning on this.	Osborne turns to mental health, and he praises Andrew Mitchell, Norman Lamb and Alastair Campbell for their campaigning on this.
12.59pm GMT12:59	12.59pm GMT12:59
Osborne says Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, says the NHS is being funded appropriately.	Osborne says Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, says the NHS is being funded appropriately.
12.59pm GMT12:59	12.59pm GMT12:59
One of the Conservative rebels over tax credits, Stephen McPartland of Stevenage, has welcomed the decision to abandon the cuts	One of the Conservative rebels over tax credits, Stephen McPartland of Stevenage, has welcomed the decision to abandon the cuts
Delighted Chancellor has listened and abolished the changes to Tax Credits. The victory is his and I can now return to the fold!!!!!!	Delighted Chancellor has listened and abolished the changes to Tax Credits. The victory is his and I can now return to the fold!!!!!!
12.58pm GMT12:58	12.58pm GMT12:58
Osborne says the NHS is the first priority of the government, and the British people.	Osborne says the NHS is the first priority of the government, and the British people.
Health spending was cut by the Labour administration in Wales. But under the Tories it is rising in England, he says.	Health spending was cut by the Labour administration in Wales. But under the Tories it is rising in England, he says.
Osborne says there is currently a cap on the number of student nurses. That cap will be abolished, and student nurses will have to apply for loans.	Osborne says there is currently a cap on the number of student nurses. That cap will be abolished, and student nurses will have to apply for loans.
12.56pm GMT12:56	12.56pm GMT12:56
Osborne says day to day spending in government departments is set to fall by an average of 0.8% a year in real terms.	Osborne says day to day spending in government departments is set to fall by an average of 0.8% a year in real terms.
The government is still spending £4 trillion over the next five years, he says.	The government is still spending £4 trillion over the next five years, he says.
12.55pm GMT12:55	12.55pm GMT12:55
Osborne says the cuts are half what they were in the last parliament.	Osborne says the cuts are half what they were in the last parliament.
12.55pm GMT12:55	12.55pm GMT12:55
Osborne says total managed expenditure - the government’s total spending - will be £756bn this year, rising to £773bn next year, £787bn the year after, £801bn in 2018-19 and £821bn in 2019-20.	Osborne says total managed expenditure - the government’s total spending - will be £756bn this year, rising to £773bn next year, £787bn the year after, £801bn in 2018-19 and £821bn in 2019-20.
12.53pm GMT12:53	12.53pm GMT12:53
Osborne says government spending was 45% of GDP in 2010.	Osborne says government spending was 45% of GDP in 2010.
Now it is just under 40%. But the end of the spending review period it will be down to 36.5%.	Now it is just under 40%. But the end of the spending review period it will be down to 36.5%.
At that level it is affordable, he says.	At that level it is affordable, he says.
12.52pm GMT12:52	12.52pm GMT12:52
Osborne turns to tax avoidance measures. The government will build one of the most digitally advanced tax systems in the world.	Osborne turns to tax avoidance measures. The government will build one of the most digitally advanced tax systems in the world.
Everyone will have digital tax accounts by the end of this parliament, he says.	Everyone will have digital tax accounts by the end of this parliament, he says.
And that means capital gains tax will have to be paid quickly.	And that means capital gains tax will have to be paid quickly.
The cost of Whitehall administration will be cut by £1.9bn, he says.	The cost of Whitehall administration will be cut by £1.9bn, he says.
12.50pm GMT12:50	12.50pm GMT12:50
Osborne turns to the deficit forecast.	Osborne turns to the deficit forecast.
12.50pm GMT12:50	12.50pm GMT12:50
#taxcredit taper rate and thresholds to remain unchanged #SpendingReview	#taxcredit taper rate and thresholds to remain unchanged #SpendingReview
12.48pm GMT12:48	12.48pm GMT12:48
Osborne abandons tax credit cuts	Osborne abandons tax credit cuts
Osborne says he can help with tax credits.	Osborne says he can help with tax credits.
People have argued the cuts should be phased in.	People have argued the cuts should be phased in.
But the simplest thing is to avoid them altogether.	But the simplest thing is to avoid them altogether.
Updated at 1.21pm GMT	Updated at 1.21pm GMT
12.46pm GMT12:46	12.46pm GMT12:46
Osborne says he has cut his borrowing plans by £8bn.	Osborne says he has cut his borrowing plans by £8bn.
And he will be able to achieve a surplus by cutting less, he says.	And he will be able to achieve a surplus by cutting less, he says.
12.45pm GMT12:45	12.45pm GMT12:45
12.44pm GMT12:44	12.44pm GMT12:44
OBR growth forecast: basically no big change, UK grows at trend for next 5 years.	OBR growth forecast: basically no big change, UK grows at trend for next 5 years.
12.43pm GMT12:43	12.43pm GMT12:43
Osborne says housing associations have been brought onto the public balance sheet.	Osborne says housing associations have been brought onto the public balance sheet.
That statistical change will be backdated to 2008.	That statistical change will be backdated to 2008.
The OBR has produced new forecasts.	The OBR has produced new forecasts.
Debt was meant to be 83.6% this year, he says. On the new measure, it is 82.5%, he says.	Debt was meant to be 83.6% this year, he says. On the new measure, it is 82.5%, he says.
12.43pm GMT12:43	12.43pm GMT12:43
Those growth forecasts mean the UK should grow a little faster than expected in the next two years, before slowing towards the end of the decade:	Those growth forecasts mean the UK should grow a little faster than expected in the next two years, before slowing towards the end of the decade:
12.42pm GMT12:42	12.42pm GMT12:42
Osborne says he is still committed to delivering a surplus in 2019-20. The OBR has approved the forecast.	Osborne says he is still committed to delivering a surplus in 2019-20. The OBR has approved the forecast.
12.42pm GMT12:42	12.42pm GMT12:42
Osborne says Labour claims about the government plans have been proved wrong.	Osborne says Labour claims about the government plans have been proved wrong.
The OBR says the economy will grow robustly every year, and living standards will rise every year.	The OBR says the economy will grow robustly every year, and living standards will rise every year.
12.41pm GMT12:41	12.41pm GMT12:41
Osborne reads out the growth forecast.	Osborne reads out the growth forecast.
12.39pm GMT12:39	12.39pm GMT12:39
Osborne says the OBR says debts are too high, and the deficit remains.	Osborne says the OBR says debts are too high, and the deficit remains.
Expectations for world growth and world trade have been revised down.	Expectations for world growth and world trade have been revised down.
That is why it is important to protect economic security.	That is why it is important to protect economic security.
12.38pm GMT12:38	12.38pm GMT12:38
Osborne is turning to the new OBR forecasts.	Osborne is turning to the new OBR forecasts.
Since 2010, no economy in the G10 has grown faster than Britain.	Since 2010, no economy in the G10 has grown faster than Britain.
That growth has not been fuelled by an irresponsible banking boom, he says.	That growth has not been fuelled by an irresponsible banking boom, he says.
The north has grown faster than the south. This will be a recovery for all, he says.	The north has grown faster than the south. This will be a recovery for all, he says.
The strongest job growth is not just in the capital, but in the Midlands, which is creating jobs three times faster than London and the south east.	The strongest job growth is not just in the capital, but in the Midlands, which is creating jobs three times faster than London and the south east.
12.38pm GMT12:38	12.38pm GMT12:38
Updated at 12.41pm GMT	Updated at 12.41pm GMT
12.37pm GMT12:37	12.37pm GMT12:37
Osborne says he will extend opportunities for all.	Osborne says he will extend opportunities for all.
This is a big spending review, by a government that does “big things”, he says.	This is a big spending review, by a government that does “big things”, he says.
12.36pm GMT12:36	12.36pm GMT12:36
Osborne says the £12bn of welfare savings will be delivered in full, “and delivered in a way that helps families as we make the progression to a national living wage”.	Osborne says the £12bn of welfare savings will be delivered in full, “and delivered in a way that helps families as we make the progression to a national living wage”.
12.36pm GMT12:36	12.36pm GMT12:36
Osborne says he is committed to a surplus.	Osborne says he is committed to a surplus.
His plans will deliver that, he says.	His plans will deliver that, he says.
And he will bring debt down.	And he will bring debt down.
This year debt will fall, and it will keep falling in every year, he says.	This year debt will fall, and it will keep falling in every year, he says.
Updated at 12.58pm GMT	Updated at 12.58pm GMT
12.35pm GMT12:35	12.35pm GMT12:35
Osborne says five years ago the economy was in crisis. As Labour’s letter said, there was no money left.	Osborne says five years ago the economy was in crisis. As Labour’s letter said, there was no money left.
Then the job was to rescue Britain. Now it is to rebuild Britain.	Then the job was to rescue Britain. Now it is to rebuild Britain.
12.34pm GMT12:34	12.34pm GMT12:34
Osborne says the spending review (SR) will put security first.	Osborne says the spending review (SR) will put security first.
Economic and national security provide the foundations for everthing the government wants to support, he says.	Economic and national security provide the foundations for everthing the government wants to support, he says.
12.34pm GMT12:34	12.34pm GMT12:34
We are tracking all the key points from the chancellor’s statement here:	We are tracking all the key points from the chancellor’s statement here:
Related: Autumn statement and spending review key points - live	Related: Autumn statement and spending review key points - live
12.31pm GMT12:31	12.31pm GMT12:31
George Osborne delivers his autumn statement	George Osborne delivers his autumn statement
George Osborne, the chancellor, is just about to start his statement.	George Osborne, the chancellor, is just about to start his statement.
It should last for almost an hour.	It should last for almost an hour.
12.28pm GMT12:28	12.28pm GMT12:28
This is what Cameron said at the start of PMQs about Chris Martin.	This is what Cameron said at the start of PMQs about Chris Martin.
Everyone in this House and many people watching at home know from Yes Prime Minister the central role that Bernard, the Prime Minister’s Principal PPS plays in the life of the Prime Minister and of Number 10 Downing Street.	Everyone in this House and many people watching at home know from Yes Prime Minister the central role that Bernard, the Prime Minister’s Principal PPS plays in the life of the Prime Minister and of Number 10 Downing Street.
Well this morning my Bernard, my Principal Private Secretary died of cancer, Chris Martin was only 42. He was one of the most loyal, hardworking, dedicated public servants that I’ve ever come across. I’ve no idea what his politics were but he would go to the ends of the earth and back again for his Prime Minister, for Number 10, and for the team he worked for.	Well this morning my Bernard, my Principal Private Secretary died of cancer, Chris Martin was only 42. He was one of the most loyal, hardworking, dedicated public servants that I’ve ever come across. I’ve no idea what his politics were but he would go to the ends of the earth and back again for his Prime Minister, for Number 10, and for the team he worked for.
Today we’re leaving the seat in the Officials’ Box where he used to sit empty as a mark of respect to him. We think of his wife Zoe, his family, the wider Number 10 family because it is a bit like a family and we feel we’ve lost someone between a father and a brother to all of us, and whatever happens we will never forget him.	Today we’re leaving the seat in the Officials’ Box where he used to sit empty as a mark of respect to him. We think of his wife Zoe, his family, the wider Number 10 family because it is a bit like a family and we feel we’ve lost someone between a father and a brother to all of us, and whatever happens we will never forget him.
12.26pm GMT12:26	12.26pm GMT12:26
Cameron says we will be hearing more about the infrastructure plan soon.	Cameron says we will be hearing more about the infrastructure plan soon.
In a Guardian article, my colleague Juliette Jowit explains why people should be sceptical about government infrastructure plan announcements. Here’s an extract.	In a Guardian article, my colleague Juliette Jowit explains why people should be sceptical about government infrastructure plan announcements. Here’s an extract.
Chancellor George Osborne has promised to put people such as Dave at the heart of his spending review on Wednesday, when he will unveil plans to spend £100bn in this parliament on new infrastructure: roads, railways, power stations and smart meters, flood defences and broadband.	Chancellor George Osborne has promised to put people such as Dave at the heart of his spending review on Wednesday, when he will unveil plans to spend £100bn in this parliament on new infrastructure: roads, railways, power stations and smart meters, flood defences and broadband.
But there should be widespread suspicion of the pledge. Osborne has published national infrastructure plans every year since 2010. These and the latest plan underpin the chancellor’s central themes: that he is investing to create jobs and wealth, giving his party the right to be trusted by voters with the economy.	But there should be widespread suspicion of the pledge. Osborne has published national infrastructure plans every year since 2010. These and the latest plan underpin the chancellor’s central themes: that he is investing to create jobs and wealth, giving his party the right to be trusted by voters with the economy.
Analysis of these plans by the Guardian, however, shows these promises are artificially inflated by rising prices, changes to the rules and a host of expensive but still uncertain schemes. In reality, government spending on infrastructure fell in the last parliament.	Analysis of these plans by the Guardian, however, shows these promises are artificially inflated by rising prices, changes to the rules and a host of expensive but still uncertain schemes. In reality, government spending on infrastructure fell in the last parliament.
Updated at 12.27pm GMT	Updated at 12.27pm GMT
12.23pm GMT12:23	12.23pm GMT12:23
Cameron pays tribute to Chris Martin	Cameron pays tribute to Chris Martin
David Cameron began PMQs with the very sad news that his principal private secretary, Chris Martin, died of cancer today. He was just 42.	David Cameron began PMQs with the very sad news that his principal private secretary, Chris Martin, died of cancer today. He was just 42.
In a moving tribute, the PM compared Chris Martin to ‘Bernard” of Yes Prime Minister, saying he was:	In a moving tribute, the PM compared Chris Martin to ‘Bernard” of Yes Prime Minister, saying he was:
One of the most loyal, hard working, dedicated public servants I have ever come across.	One of the most loyal, hard working, dedicated public servants I have ever come across.
He would go to “the ends of the earth and back again” for his team, and he’ll never be forgotten, Cameron added.	He would go to “the ends of the earth and back again” for his team, and he’ll never be forgotten, Cameron added.
Jeremy Corbyn also paid tribute, saying Chris Martin has played a valuable role when Labour was in power too (he served as Press Secretary to both Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling.)	Jeremy Corbyn also paid tribute, saying Chris Martin has played a valuable role when Labour was in power too (he served as Press Secretary to both Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling.)
More tributes are coming in:	More tributes are coming in:
Really glad PM gave moving tribute to Chris Martin. Lovely man and brilliant civil servant. Will be badly missed	Really glad PM gave moving tribute to Chris Martin. Lovely man and brilliant civil servant. Will be badly missed
Chris Martin was a model modern mandarin - served us in Labour Treasury with same full commitment as PM said in No10 https://t.co/v06eFI8cqG	Chris Martin was a model modern mandarin - served us in Labour Treasury with same full commitment as PM said in No10 https://t.co/v06eFI8cqG
Touching tribute by the Prime Minister to his PPS Chris Martin who died of cancer this morning aged 42, condolences to his friends & family.	Touching tribute by the Prime Minister to his PPS Chris Martin who died of cancer this morning aged 42, condolences to his friends & family.
So sad to hear Chris Martin has died. He was possibly the best official I ever came across in government. He will be much missed	So sad to hear Chris Martin has died. He was possibly the best official I ever came across in government. He will be much missed
Updated at 12.27pm GMT	Updated at 12.27pm GMT
12.20pm GMT12:20	12.20pm GMT12:20
David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn both paid tribute earlier to Chris Martin, Cameron’s principle private secretary, who died this morning at the age of 42. The news has prompted Ed Balls, the former shadow chancellor, to post on Twitter.	David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn both paid tribute earlier to Chris Martin, Cameron’s principle private secretary, who died this morning at the age of 42. The news has prompted Ed Balls, the former shadow chancellor, to post on Twitter.
Chris Martin was a brilliant civil servant. Quality and integrity shone brightly through all he did. Such a loss. https://t.co/57ynzUnYEH	Chris Martin was a brilliant civil servant. Quality and integrity shone brightly through all he did. Such a loss. https://t.co/57ynzUnYEH
Updated at 12.27pm GMT	Updated at 12.27pm GMT
12.16pm GMT12:16	12.16pm GMT12:16
PMQs - Snap verdict	PMQs - Snap verdict
Andrew Sparrow	Andrew Sparrow
PMQs - Snap verdict: A relatively low key exchange, but Corbyn chose two subjects where Cameron was vulnerable and he scored some modest hits (although he could probably have pushed Cameron harder about the Rudd leak). Cameron clearly felt a little frustrated about not being able to say more about the domestic violence announcement coming in the autumn statement, but he and Corbyn both know that what they said will be soon forgotten in the light of the big announcements coming shortly.	PMQs - Snap verdict: A relatively low key exchange, but Corbyn chose two subjects where Cameron was vulnerable and he scored some modest hits (although he could probably have pushed Cameron harder about the Rudd leak). Cameron clearly felt a little frustrated about not being able to say more about the domestic violence announcement coming in the autumn statement, but he and Corbyn both know that what they said will be soon forgotten in the light of the big announcements coming shortly.
Updated at 12.16pm GMT	Updated at 12.16pm GMT
12.11pm GMT12:11	12.11pm GMT12:11
Corbyn says today is the international day for the elimination of violence against women. Why are one third of those referred to English refuges being turned away?	Corbyn says today is the international day for the elimination of violence against women. Why are one third of those referred to English refuges being turned away?
Cameron says the government has put more money into refuges, and that Osborne will say more about that in his statement.	Cameron says the government has put more money into refuges, and that Osborne will say more about that in his statement.
Corbyn quotes a domestic charity worker saying domestic violence victims have a right to the best treatment. The government signed the Istanbul convention making the right to women’s services statutory. When will the government ratify that?	Corbyn quotes a domestic charity worker saying domestic violence victims have a right to the best treatment. The government signed the Istanbul convention making the right to women’s services statutory. When will the government ratify that?
Cameron says the government is going further. He says Osborne will address this in his statement. No government before this one has a stronger record, he says.	Cameron says the government is going further. He says Osborne will address this in his statement. No government before this one has a stronger record, he says.
12.08pm GMT12:08	12.08pm GMT12:08
Corbyn says a UN chief scientist has said Britain has gone backwards on renewable energy.	Corbyn says a UN chief scientist has said Britain has gone backwards on renewable energy.
Cameron says he does not accept that. When the cost of renewable energy falls, subsidies should fall too. Otherwise the cost of energy to taxpayers rises. He also says he his building the first nuclear power station for a long time.	Cameron says he does not accept that. When the cost of renewable energy falls, subsidies should fall too. Otherwise the cost of energy to taxpayers rises. He also says he his building the first nuclear power station for a long time.
Corbyn says 1,000 jobs have gone from solar panel firms. He reads out a question from a solar panel apprentice asking why Cameron is throwing away the progress made in this area.	Corbyn says 1,000 jobs have gone from solar panel firms. He reads out a question from a solar panel apprentice asking why Cameron is throwing away the progress made in this area.
Cameron says more than 1m homes were fitted with solar panels in the last parliament. But the cost has fallen, so the subsidies should fall too, he says.	Cameron says more than 1m homes were fitted with solar panels in the last parliament. But the cost has fallen, so the subsidies should fall too, he says.
12.06pm GMT12:06	12.06pm GMT12:06
Jeremy Corbyn says 55 Labour councils have made a commitment to run their areas on green energy by 2050. Will Cameron commend them, and urge Conservative councils to do the same.	Jeremy Corbyn says 55 Labour councils have made a commitment to run their areas on green energy by 2050. Will Cameron commend them, and urge Conservative councils to do the same.
Cameron says he wants to promote green energy. He will be taking part in the Paris climate talks. But action must be taken locally as well, he says. In the last parliament there was a trebling of the introducing of renewable energy.	Cameron says he wants to promote green energy. He will be taking part in the Paris climate talks. But action must be taken locally as well, he says. In the last parliament there was a trebling of the introducing of renewable energy.
Corbyn says Cameron used to say his was the greenest government ever. Does Cameron agree with Amber Rudd that the government will miss its renewable energy target for 2020?	Corbyn says Cameron used to say his was the greenest government ever. Does Cameron agree with Amber Rudd that the government will miss its renewable energy target for 2020?
Cameron says his last government was the greenest government ever. It also helped other countries go green.	Cameron says his last government was the greenest government ever. It also helped other countries go green.
He ignores the point about Amber Rudd completely.	He ignores the point about Amber Rudd completely.
12.03pm GMT12:03	12.03pm GMT12:03
Fiona Bruce, a Conservative, asks if the announcements in today’s autumn statement will pass Cameron’s “family test” (ie, that they should support families). Cameron says George Osborne will have something to say about families later.	Fiona Bruce, a Conservative, asks if the announcements in today’s autumn statement will pass Cameron’s “family test” (ie, that they should support families). Cameron says George Osborne will have something to say about families later.
12.02pm GMT12:02	12.02pm GMT12:02
PMQs	PMQs
David Cameron is now taking prime minister’s questions. I will just be focusing on the exchanges with Jeremy Corbyn, and any autumn statement-related material.	David Cameron is now taking prime minister’s questions. I will just be focusing on the exchanges with Jeremy Corbyn, and any autumn statement-related material.
11.59am GMT11:59	11.59am GMT11:59
Hannah Maundrell, editor in chief of money.co.uk, says we could hear pension tax relief changes for top earners, and a potential increase in fuel duty:	Hannah Maundrell, editor in chief of money.co.uk, says we could hear pension tax relief changes for top earners, and a potential increase in fuel duty:
Rumours are rife with news that Osborne will be stopping higher earners from cashing in on pension tax relief before he reforms the way this works next Spring. Hopefully he’ll step up to the plate and sort out the pension exit fees that are punishing over 55’s that take advantage of his new pension freedoms rise too. While he’s likely to back peddle on his tax credit reforms, he could end up hitting the same households if he targets housing benefit instead.	Rumours are rife with news that Osborne will be stopping higher earners from cashing in on pension tax relief before he reforms the way this works next Spring. Hopefully he’ll step up to the plate and sort out the pension exit fees that are punishing over 55’s that take advantage of his new pension freedoms rise too. While he’s likely to back peddle on his tax credit reforms, he could end up hitting the same households if he targets housing benefit instead.
A trip to the pump this morning could be worth your while as a fuel duty hike seems inevitable. Petrol and diesel prices are the lowest we’ve seen for a long time so drivers should expect a second shock after already swallowing the £13 av. increase in insurance premium tax.	A trip to the pump this morning could be worth your while as a fuel duty hike seems inevitable. Petrol and diesel prices are the lowest we’ve seen for a long time so drivers should expect a second shock after already swallowing the £13 av. increase in insurance premium tax.
11.55am GMT11:55	11.55am GMT11:55
Evgeny Lebedev, who owns the Evening Standard, looks as if he has just tweeted an autumn statement announcement.	Evgeny Lebedev, who owns the Evening Standard, looks as if he has just tweeted an autumn statement announcement.
Fantastic news! The Treasury to double every pound raised by our #GivetoGOSH campaign https://t.co/2saxaqZ57H	Fantastic news! The Treasury to double every pound raised by our #GivetoGOSH campaign https://t.co/2saxaqZ57H
11.50am GMT11:50	11.50am GMT11:50
And George Osborne has been tweeting ahead of his statement too.	And George Osborne has been tweeting ahead of his statement too.
Today's Spending Review will deliver economic and national security - the foundations for everything we do #SR15 pic.twitter.com/Fgstmgfm48	Today's Spending Review will deliver economic and national security - the foundations for everything we do #SR15 pic.twitter.com/Fgstmgfm48
11.48am GMT11:48	11.48am GMT11:48
Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has tweeted about the autumn statement.	Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has tweeted about the autumn statement.
Important day - #PMQs at 12pm & #CSR15 after. We hope Tories have listened & u-turn on drastic cuts to police, tax credits & public services	Important day - #PMQs at 12pm & #CSR15 after. We hope Tories have listened & u-turn on drastic cuts to police, tax credits & public services
11.42am GMT11:42	11.42am GMT11:42
Torsten Bell, a former Treasury civil servant and Labour adviser who now runs the Resolution Foundation, has this take on the importance of autumn statements.	Torsten Bell, a former Treasury civil servant and Labour adviser who now runs the Resolution Foundation, has this take on the importance of autumn statements.
Lasting impact of Budgets often over-done in immediate analysis. Opposite true of spending reviews, which set direction for the parliament	Lasting impact of Budgets often over-done in immediate analysis. Opposite true of spending reviews, which set direction for the parliament
11.38am GMT11:38	11.38am GMT11:38
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is surprisingly sceptical about the plans that George Osborne is due to announce for 400,000 new homes. This is from Jeremy Blackburn, the RICS head of policy.	The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors is surprisingly sceptical about the plans that George Osborne is due to announce for 400,000 new homes. This is from Jeremy Blackburn, the RICS head of policy.
A push towards affordable home ownership should not come at the expense of affordable homes for rent. If cities such as London are to thrive, we need to ensure that housing can be provided for all of its workforce - home ownership can only go so far and even shared ownership may prove too expensive for some. We would like to see the chancellor incentivise affordable homes for rent in both public and private sectors.	A push towards affordable home ownership should not come at the expense of affordable homes for rent. If cities such as London are to thrive, we need to ensure that housing can be provided for all of its workforce - home ownership can only go so far and even shared ownership may prove too expensive for some. We would like to see the chancellor incentivise affordable homes for rent in both public and private sectors.
George Osborne is essentially subsidising one sector of the housing market over all others, in an area that already benefits from significant Government funding. Although the announcement is on the face of it encouraging for certain sectors, the devil will be in the detail.	George Osborne is essentially subsidising one sector of the housing market over all others, in an area that already benefits from significant Government funding. Although the announcement is on the face of it encouraging for certain sectors, the devil will be in the detail.
11.37am GMT11:37	11.37am GMT11:37
Anyone got any spare metallic paint?	Anyone got any spare metallic paint?
Downing Street Car Crash! Well ... a small prang between Prime Ministerial vehicles ahead of #PMQs pic.twitter.com/gQvhiEY4Y9	Downing Street Car Crash! Well ... a small prang between Prime Ministerial vehicles ahead of #PMQs pic.twitter.com/gQvhiEY4Y9
Has PM had a car crash? No10 reveals Cameron car "momentarily touched another car" but "no damage was done to either vehicle"	Has PM had a car crash? No10 reveals Cameron car "momentarily touched another car" but "no damage was done to either vehicle"
11.27am GMT11:27	11.27am GMT11:27
George Osborne has just left the Treasury (no, not permanently), and hopped into his limo for the short journey to parliament:	George Osborne has just left the Treasury (no, not permanently), and hopped into his limo for the short journey to parliament:
Fingers crossed that we avoid a second prang.	Fingers crossed that we avoid a second prang.
Updated at 11.27am GMT	Updated at 11.27am GMT
11.13am GMT11:13	11.13am GMT11:13
Lord Porter, the Conservative chair of the Local Government Association, has told the Guardian in an interview that some councils could effectively go bust if the cuts in the spending review are as deep as expected.	Lord Porter, the Conservative chair of the Local Government Association, has told the Guardian in an interview that some councils could effectively go bust if the cuts in the spending review are as deep as expected.
11.09am GMT11:09	11.09am GMT11:09
Britain’s barristers are worried that the justice system could be imperilled if the chancellor swings the axe in its direction today.	Britain’s barristers are worried that the justice system could be imperilled if the chancellor swings the axe in its direction today.
Chairman of the Bar Council, Alistair MacDonald QC says:	Chairman of the Bar Council, Alistair MacDonald QC says:
“It is because citizens have access to justice that big businesses pay their small firm suppliers in good time, that parents can get the right pay and leave from their employers, and that elderly people get the care to which they are entitled.	“It is because citizens have access to justice that big businesses pay their small firm suppliers in good time, that parents can get the right pay and leave from their employers, and that elderly people get the care to which they are entitled.
“The idea that people who need to use the courts are being subsidised by the tax-payer is completely wrong. When people use the courts and other legal avenues to enforce the law, it helps to ensure that we all play by the rules. Without access to justice, everyone will suffer because the rules will cease to matter.”	“The idea that people who need to use the courts are being subsidised by the tax-payer is completely wrong. When people use the courts and other legal avenues to enforce the law, it helps to ensure that we all play by the rules. Without access to justice, everyone will suffer because the rules will cease to matter.”
Updated at 11.10am GMT	Updated at 11.10am GMT
11.08am GMT11:08	11.08am GMT11:08
Martin Kettle	Martin Kettle
Our colleague Martin Kettle has written a piece this morning saying we would be better off just abolishing autumn statements and spending reviews. Here’s an extract.	Our colleague Martin Kettle has written a piece this morning saying we would be better off just abolishing autumn statements and spending reviews. Here’s an extract.
There is a very strong case for saying that both rituals are largely unnecessary and that, in particular, they allow the Treasury and the chancellor to get far too tough a grip on the government’s strategy and approach. While accepting that today’s speech and announcements are indisputably important as framing exercises, it is also important to stress that they don’t need to be treated as respectfully as they are. In short, we might be better off without either of them.	There is a very strong case for saying that both rituals are largely unnecessary and that, in particular, they allow the Treasury and the chancellor to get far too tough a grip on the government’s strategy and approach. While accepting that today’s speech and announcements are indisputably important as framing exercises, it is also important to stress that they don’t need to be treated as respectfully as they are. In short, we might be better off without either of them.
But surely we have to have them? No we don’t. Unlike the annual budget, the autumn statement and the spending review are recent inventions: the autumn statement dates from 1976; the spending review only from 1998. Neither of them is an ordained or ancient part of the way UK government works. The autumn statement is a purely political confection. It has no economic purpose. It exists primarily to allow the chancellor to command a second big parliamentary event of the year (indeed this is the third of 2015, in which Osborne has already delivered two budgets, one of them only four months ago).	But surely we have to have them? No we don’t. Unlike the annual budget, the autumn statement and the spending review are recent inventions: the autumn statement dates from 1976; the spending review only from 1998. Neither of them is an ordained or ancient part of the way UK government works. The autumn statement is a purely political confection. It has no economic purpose. It exists primarily to allow the chancellor to command a second big parliamentary event of the year (indeed this is the third of 2015, in which Osborne has already delivered two budgets, one of them only four months ago).
In essence the same applies to the spending review, which was invented by Gordon Brown ostensibly to give the appearance of having a sensible long-term economic strategy. It succeeded in that political aim, though the strategy didn’t turn out as cleverly as Brown claimed and most observers accepted at the time. In reality, the spending review was conjured up to enable Brown to bind all his rival departmental ministers into decisions from which they could not escape. The spending review is about the assertion of political power — the chancellor’s power — not economic strategy.	In essence the same applies to the spending review, which was invented by Gordon Brown ostensibly to give the appearance of having a sensible long-term economic strategy. It succeeded in that political aim, though the strategy didn’t turn out as cleverly as Brown claimed and most observers accepted at the time. In reality, the spending review was conjured up to enable Brown to bind all his rival departmental ministers into decisions from which they could not escape. The spending review is about the assertion of political power — the chancellor’s power — not economic strategy.
11.03am GMT11:03	11.03am GMT11:03
Here is Patrick Wintour’s full story on how the government is planning to breach its welfare cap.	Here is Patrick Wintour’s full story on how the government is planning to breach its welfare cap.
10.55am GMT10:55	10.55am GMT10:55
There was a slight prang in Downing Street earlier. Bad omen?	There was a slight prang in Downing Street earlier. Bad omen?
Augur for today? slight prang between two cars of the prime ministerial motorcade in Downing St a few moments ago	Augur for today? slight prang between two cars of the prime ministerial motorcade in Downing St a few moments ago
10.53am GMT10:53	10.53am GMT10:53
If George Osborne does breach the welfare cap it will be all the more remarkable because even Jeremy Corbyn said he accepted it; he said so in an interview to the New Statesman in September.	If George Osborne does breach the welfare cap it will be all the more remarkable because even Jeremy Corbyn said he accepted it; he said so in an interview to the New Statesman in September.
10.49am GMT10:49	10.49am GMT10:49
Here are some pictures of ministers arriving and leaving Number 10 for today’s autumn statement cabinet meeting.	Here are some pictures of ministers arriving and leaving Number 10 for today’s autumn statement cabinet meeting.
Theresa May, the home secretary, is braced for cuts - and did not look overly cheerful.	Theresa May, the home secretary, is braced for cuts - and did not look overly cheerful.
Health is getting more money, which may be why Jeremy Hunt looked more upbeat.	Health is getting more money, which may be why Jeremy Hunt looked more upbeat.
The Department for Business is expecting cuts. Here’s Sajid Javid, the business secretary, and Priti Patel, the employment minister.	The Department for Business is expecting cuts. Here’s Sajid Javid, the business secretary, and Priti Patel, the employment minister.
God knows what’s happening to the small business budget, but Anna Soubry, the small business minister, looks like she’s had a shock.	God knows what’s happening to the small business budget, but Anna Soubry, the small business minister, looks like she’s had a shock.
Unlike David Cameron who looks, well, as smug as ever ...	Unlike David Cameron who looks, well, as smug as ever ...
10.45am GMT10:45	10.45am GMT10:45
Andrew Harrop, general secretary of the Fabians, has blogged about how breaching the welfare cap would ‘liberate’ the chancellor:	Andrew Harrop, general secretary of the Fabians, has blogged about how breaching the welfare cap would ‘liberate’ the chancellor:
it was Osborne’s pre-election promise of £12 billion of cuts to welfare that really did the damage and led inexorably to the tax credit reforms. First Osborne made the welfare pledge, then he protected pensioners and the severely disabled, and finally he realised that a Tory-only Treasury could not impose cash cuts on the very worst off who are not in work. There was no choice left but to hit the working poor.	it was Osborne’s pre-election promise of £12 billion of cuts to welfare that really did the damage and led inexorably to the tax credit reforms. First Osborne made the welfare pledge, then he protected pensioners and the severely disabled, and finally he realised that a Tory-only Treasury could not impose cash cuts on the very worst off who are not in work. There was no choice left but to hit the working poor.
It is sometimes said that George Osborne never expected to implement the £12bn promise. It was designed only as a negotiating position in advance of post-election coalition talks. Whatever the truth in that, now the chancellor must let it go and cancel the cuts planned for existing tax credit claimants. And that also means increasing the value of the ‘welfare cap’, Osborne’s self-imposed straightjacket which he tightened at the last Budget and he can now loosen again.	It is sometimes said that George Osborne never expected to implement the £12bn promise. It was designed only as a negotiating position in advance of post-election coalition talks. Whatever the truth in that, now the chancellor must let it go and cancel the cuts planned for existing tax credit claimants. And that also means increasing the value of the ‘welfare cap’, Osborne’s self-imposed straightjacket which he tightened at the last Budget and he can now loosen again.
Ditching the welfare pledge would be liberating, because if Osborne scraps that one promise he will suddenly have lots of options before him.	Ditching the welfare pledge would be liberating, because if Osborne scraps that one promise he will suddenly have lots of options before him.
More here:	More here:
The welfare pledge: Osborne is a prisoner of his own imagination	The welfare pledge: Osborne is a prisoner of his own imagination
Updated at 10.46am GMT	Updated at 10.46am GMT
10.38am GMT10:38	10.38am GMT10:38
Does every u-turn have a silver lining? Nick Clegg’s former special advisor, Polly Mackenzie, reckons it might:	Does every u-turn have a silver lining? Nick Clegg’s former special advisor, Polly Mackenzie, reckons it might:
Welfare cap only a political trick so breaching it works just as well as not. Vote on breach moves Osborne to the centre ground = victory.	Welfare cap only a political trick so breaching it works just as well as not. Vote on breach moves Osborne to the centre ground = victory.
.	.
10.35am GMT10:35	10.35am GMT10:35
Rupert Harrison used to be George Osborne’s chief of staff. He is working in the City now, and using Twitter to advise people not to be taken in by Treasury “expectation management” ahead of the autumn statement.	Rupert Harrison used to be George Osborne’s chief of staff. He is working in the City now, and using Twitter to advise people not to be taken in by Treasury “expectation management” ahead of the autumn statement.
Challenge on the morning of an SR or Budget is telling what is real and what is expectation management by HMT. Usually the latter...	Challenge on the morning of an SR or Budget is telling what is real and what is expectation management by HMT. Usually the latter...
10.22am GMT10:22	10.22am GMT10:22
Jonathan Portes also hopes that the welfare cap might be dropped altogether:	Jonathan Portes also hopes that the welfare cap might be dropped altogether:
Welfare cap, like surplus target, never had any economic rationale. Would be best to abandon it permanently. https://t.co/iVG4djlQhQ	Welfare cap, like surplus target, never had any economic rationale. Would be best to abandon it permanently. https://t.co/iVG4djlQhQ
"meaningless gesture" - here's how I described "welfare cap" when it was announced. Glad George Osborne now agrees. https://t.co/W3vntX4Obp	"meaningless gesture" - here's how I described "welfare cap" when it was announced. Glad George Osborne now agrees. https://t.co/W3vntX4Obp
10.15am GMT10:15	10.15am GMT10:15
The Welfare Cap shows the dangers of ‘soundbite’ driven fiscal policy, argues economist Jonathan Portes, of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research:	The Welfare Cap shows the dangers of ‘soundbite’ driven fiscal policy, argues economist Jonathan Portes, of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research:
Govt may breach own self-imposed, entirely unnecessary "welfare cap". Illustrates absurdity of soundbite budgeting https://t.co/eZ4Wwnk1tc	Govt may breach own self-imposed, entirely unnecessary "welfare cap". Illustrates absurdity of soundbite budgeting https://t.co/eZ4Wwnk1tc
Updated at 10.17am GMT	Updated at 10.17am GMT
10.11am GMT10:11	10.11am GMT10:11
Welfare cap analysis - How Osborne said breaching it would be 'a failure of public expenditure control'	Welfare cap analysis - How Osborne said breaching it would be 'a failure of public expenditure control'
Andrew Sparrow	Andrew Sparrow
One of the criticisms of George Osborne as chancellor is that he can be too clever by half, that some of his political schemes are so devious that they can backfire. For anyone advancing this theory, the welfare cap now looks like an ideal example.	One of the criticisms of George Osborne as chancellor is that he can be too clever by half, that some of his political schemes are so devious that they can backfire. For anyone advancing this theory, the welfare cap now looks like an ideal example.
Osborne announced a welfare cap, a cap on the overall amount the government can spend on certain welfare payments, in the budget of 2014. It is not the same as the benefits cap, the cap on the amount of benefits that an out-of-work family can receive (originally £26,000, but now being cut to £20,000 for families outside London.) The benefits cap proved remarkably popular with voters, and so Osborne decided to apply the same principle to overall welfare spending. At the time it was perceived primarily as a trap for Labour; Osborne was hoping that the opposition would vote against, thus allowing him to depict them as profligate with welfare spending. In the event this ploy failed, because Ed Miliband and Ed Balls decided their party should vote in favour of the welfare cap, and the issue quickly dropped out of the political headlines.	Osborne announced a welfare cap, a cap on the overall amount the government can spend on certain welfare payments, in the budget of 2014. It is not the same as the benefits cap, the cap on the amount of benefits that an out-of-work family can receive (originally £26,000, but now being cut to £20,000 for families outside London.) The benefits cap proved remarkably popular with voters, and so Osborne decided to apply the same principle to overall welfare spending. At the time it was perceived primarily as a trap for Labour; Osborne was hoping that the opposition would vote against, thus allowing him to depict them as profligate with welfare spending. In the event this ploy failed, because Ed Miliband and Ed Balls decided their party should vote in favour of the welfare cap, and the issue quickly dropped out of the political headlines.
As a restraint on government the welfare cap was always relatively ineffective because, under Osborne’s proposal, any government could break i and spend more if it wanted to. But it would have to go to the Commons to win approval in a vote. Osborne argued that this would prove embarrassing, and that the unappetising prospect of having to ask MPs to vote for extra welfare spending would act as a deterrent.	As a restraint on government the welfare cap was always relatively ineffective because, under Osborne’s proposal, any government could break i and spend more if it wanted to. But it would have to go to the Commons to win approval in a vote. Osborne argued that this would prove embarrassing, and that the unappetising prospect of having to ask MPs to vote for extra welfare spending would act as a deterrent.
In the debate on the welfare cap in March 2014 he said that breaching the welfare cap would be “a failure of public expenditure control”. Any chancellor taking this step would have to admit that what they really want is “higher welfare bills”, he said.	In the debate on the welfare cap in March 2014 he said that breaching the welfare cap would be “a failure of public expenditure control”. Any chancellor taking this step would have to admit that what they really want is “higher welfare bills”, he said.
The charter makes clear what will happen if the welfare cap is breached. The chancellor must come to parliament, account for the failure of public expenditure control, and set out the action that will be taken to address the breach ...	The charter makes clear what will happen if the welfare cap is breached. The chancellor must come to parliament, account for the failure of public expenditure control, and set out the action that will be taken to address the breach ...
The welfare cap brings responsibility, accountability and fairness. Those who want to undo our welfare reforms will now have to tell us about the other cuts that they will make, or else come clean and admit to the public that what they really want are higher welfare bills ..	The welfare cap brings responsibility, accountability and fairness. Those who want to undo our welfare reforms will now have to tell us about the other cuts that they will make, or else come clean and admit to the public that what they really want are higher welfare bills ..
From now on, any government who want to spend more on welfare will have to be honest with the public—honest about the costs—and secure the approval of parliament in order to breach the cap.	From now on, any government who want to spend more on welfare will have to be honest with the public—honest about the costs—and secure the approval of parliament in order to breach the cap.
Expect those words to be flung back at Osborne this afternoon. Now it seems that he is going to have to go to parliament himself and admit that he’s the one asking for “higher welfare bills” because he’s failed to meet his own spending targets.	Expect those words to be flung back at Osborne this afternoon. Now it seems that he is going to have to go to parliament himself and admit that he’s the one asking for “higher welfare bills” because he’s failed to meet his own spending targets.
Updated at 10.15am GMT	Updated at 10.15am GMT
10.04am GMT10:04	10.04am GMT10:04
The news that George Osborne is planning to breach his own welfare cap is causing a stir on Twitter:	The news that George Osborne is planning to breach his own welfare cap is causing a stir on Twitter:
Breaching own #welfare cap is incredibly embarrassing for @George_Osborne. Surely cutting more would be a better option? #spendingreview	Breaching own #welfare cap is incredibly embarrassing for @George_Osborne. Surely cutting more would be a better option? #spendingreview
If Chancellor is going to breach his own welfare cap, he'll need to pull a very big rabbit out of the hat to stop that being main story.	If Chancellor is going to breach his own welfare cap, he'll need to pull a very big rabbit out of the hat to stop that being main story.
@patrickwintour Tarnishes the whole exercise. Many Tory MPs will have difficulty explaining the whole point of the welfare cap to public	@patrickwintour Tarnishes the whole exercise. Many Tory MPs will have difficulty explaining the whole point of the welfare cap to public
Financial Times political correspondent John McDermott says Osborne still has a little ‘wiggle room’, though:	Financial Times political correspondent John McDermott says Osborne still has a little ‘wiggle room’, though:
Not sure why I put +/- there ... it's a cap so only applies to 2 per cent above that level. Means Osborne has about £2bn in wiggle room.	Not sure why I put +/- there ... it's a cap so only applies to 2 per cent above that level. Means Osborne has about £2bn in wiggle room.
Updated at 10.07am GMT	Updated at 10.07am GMT
9.43am GMT09:43	9.43am GMT09:43
Tom Blenkinsop, Labour MPs for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, predicts two u-turns from the chancellor, on the welfare cap and on the 2020 budget surplus.	Tom Blenkinsop, Labour MPs for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, predicts two u-turns from the chancellor, on the welfare cap and on the 2020 budget surplus.
Today #0sborne will announce that he'll break his own welfare cap, and slash his assumed budget surplus, all only 6 months after #GE2015	Today #0sborne will announce that he'll break his own welfare cap, and slash his assumed budget surplus, all only 6 months after #GE2015
9.34am GMT09:34	9.34am GMT09:34
Osborne planning to breach his own welfare cap	Osborne planning to breach his own welfare cap
Patrick Wintour	Patrick Wintour
George Osborne has set in train plans to breach the Treasury’s welfare cap after deciding it cannot find enough welfare savings to compensate for the decision to slow the pace of cuts to tax credits.	George Osborne has set in train plans to breach the Treasury’s welfare cap after deciding it cannot find enough welfare savings to compensate for the decision to slow the pace of cuts to tax credits.
The chancellor has held discussions with the Department of Work and Pensions to arrange a Commons vote that would give the government permission to breach the cap.	The chancellor has held discussions with the Department of Work and Pensions to arrange a Commons vote that would give the government permission to breach the cap.
The vote will be passed by MPs but the decision is likely to be seen as a political embarrassment for Osborne since he largely invented the self imposed cap in the last parliament as a trap to show Labour is lax on welfare spending. In the end the shadow chancellor Ed Balls embraced the cap.	The vote will be passed by MPs but the decision is likely to be seen as a political embarrassment for Osborne since he largely invented the self imposed cap in the last parliament as a trap to show Labour is lax on welfare spending. In the end the shadow chancellor Ed Balls embraced the cap.
The request to the DWP suggests that cuts to housing benefit likely to be found in Wednesday’s Autumn Statement will fall short of the £4.4 bn that would have been saved by changing the threshold of tax credit payments.	The request to the DWP suggests that cuts to housing benefit likely to be found in Wednesday’s Autumn Statement will fall short of the £4.4 bn that would have been saved by changing the threshold of tax credit payments.
Osborne has many options to mitigate the impact of the tax credits and some would not require him to bust his plan to have the budget in overall annual surplus by the end of the parliament, probably the single biggest target he has set himself.	Osborne has many options to mitigate the impact of the tax credits and some would not require him to bust his plan to have the budget in overall annual surplus by the end of the parliament, probably the single biggest target he has set himself.
Osborne, speaking on BBC1’s Andrew Marr programme on Sunday referred to the need to go back to parliament if we was to breach the welfare cap, but he was not pressed on whether he intended to do so.	Osborne, speaking on BBC1’s Andrew Marr programme on Sunday referred to the need to go back to parliament if we was to breach the welfare cap, but he was not pressed on whether he intended to do so.
Updated at 9.37am GMT	Updated at 9.37am GMT
9.33am GMT09:33	9.33am GMT09:33
Overnight it emerged that housing will be a big focus in the autumn statement. As the Guardian splash reveals, George Osborne will commit himself to “the biggest affordable housebuilding programme since the 1970s – with over 400,000 new homes built across England”.	Overnight it emerged that housing will be a big focus in the autumn statement. As the Guardian splash reveals, George Osborne will commit himself to “the biggest affordable housebuilding programme since the 1970s – with over 400,000 new homes built across England”.
Labour has dismissed this as hot air. This is from John Healey, the shadow housing minister.	Labour has dismissed this as hot air. This is from John Healey, the shadow housing minister.
If hot air built homes, then Conservative ministers would have our housing crisis sorted. A matter of weeks ago the housing minister promised a million more homes, now George Osborne is saying they’ll build 400,000 more.	If hot air built homes, then Conservative ministers would have our housing crisis sorted. A matter of weeks ago the housing minister promised a million more homes, now George Osborne is saying they’ll build 400,000 more.
George Osborne’s first act as chancellor in 2010 was to slash housing investment by 60%, and his plans today could still mean 40% less to build the homes we need compared to the investment programme he inherited from Labour.	George Osborne’s first act as chancellor in 2010 was to slash housing investment by 60%, and his plans today could still mean 40% less to build the homes we need compared to the investment programme he inherited from Labour.
The Tories’ housing record speaks for itself. The lowest peacetime level of housebuilding since David Lloyd George was prime minister in the 1920s, home ownership fallen year-on-year to the lowest level in a generation, and alongside the lowest number of genuinely affordable homes built in two decades, the number of affordable homes to buy halved since 2010.	The Tories’ housing record speaks for itself. The lowest peacetime level of housebuilding since David Lloyd George was prime minister in the 1920s, home ownership fallen year-on-year to the lowest level in a generation, and alongside the lowest number of genuinely affordable homes built in two decades, the number of affordable homes to buy halved since 2010.
9.31am GMT09:31	9.31am GMT09:31
CEBR: £30bn black hole looming	CEBR: £30bn black hole looming
The Centre for Economics and Business Research believes George Osborne could be facing a £30bn ‘black hole’ in his budget forecasts.	The Centre for Economics and Business Research believes George Osborne could be facing a £30bn ‘black hole’ in his budget forecasts.
Like many economists, the CEBR believes this year’s deficit will be higher than the £69.5bn forecast. But it also reckons that economic growth will be weaker than expected - leaving the UK with a deficit of almost £20bn in 2020, not the £10bn surplus currently pencilled in.	Like many economists, the CEBR believes this year’s deficit will be higher than the £69.5bn forecast. But it also reckons that economic growth will be weaker than expected - leaving the UK with a deficit of almost £20bn in 2020, not the £10bn surplus currently pencilled in.
The Cebr explains:	The Cebr explains:
“Because the Chancellor’s forecasts rely on an implausibly high rate of growth we think that the Government’s fiscal position is much less favourable than was set out in the July Budget.	“Because the Chancellor’s forecasts rely on an implausibly high rate of growth we think that the Government’s fiscal position is much less favourable than was set out in the July Budget.
“The deficit will not be eliminated in the current Parliament.”	“The deficit will not be eliminated in the current Parliament.”
That chimes with the IFS’s warning early this morning, although it doesn’t expect major revisions to growth forecasts today.	That chimes with the IFS’s warning early this morning, although it doesn’t expect major revisions to growth forecasts today.
Updated at 9.57am GMT	Updated at 9.57am GMT
9.18am GMT09:18	9.18am GMT09:18
Shares in Britain’s house builders are rallying this morning, on the back of reports that the chancellor will pledge an extra £7bn of fresh investment in housing.	Shares in Britain’s house builders are rallying this morning, on the back of reports that the chancellor will pledge an extra £7bn of fresh investment in housing.
Trader have pushed Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard:	Trader have pushed Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard:
Osborne is expected to promise 400,000 new homes, to “turn generation rent into generation buy”.	Osborne is expected to promise 400,000 new homes, to “turn generation rent into generation buy”.
Updated at 9.20am GMT	Updated at 9.20am GMT
9.03am GMT09:03	9.03am GMT09:03
The trick to successful trap-laying is to make damn sure that you lure your quarry, rather than falling into it.	The trick to successful trap-laying is to make damn sure that you lure your quarry, rather than falling into it.
But Sky’s Faisal Islam believes that George Osborne may have snared himself with his decision to cap Britain’s welfare bill. He’s doesn’t appear to have left himself any margin to change course on tax credits, without pushing up the bill.	But Sky’s Faisal Islam believes that George Osborne may have snared himself with his decision to cap Britain’s welfare bill. He’s doesn’t appear to have left himself any margin to change course on tax credits, without pushing up the bill.
Faisal explains:	Faisal explains:
The problem arises because Mr Osborne, in addition to making sharp welfare cuts, chose to push down the welfare cap to the levels of welfare spending forecast in July by the Office for Budget Responsibility - £115bn in the 2016/17 financial year.	The problem arises because Mr Osborne, in addition to making sharp welfare cuts, chose to push down the welfare cap to the levels of welfare spending forecast in July by the Office for Budget Responsibility - £115bn in the 2016/17 financial year.
This means there is no wriggle room for a significantly more generous phasing of tax credits in the coming year without busting the cap.	This means there is no wriggle room for a significantly more generous phasing of tax credits in the coming year without busting the cap.
The OBR assesses compliance with the welfare cap under the Charter for Budget Responsibility at every Autumn Statement.	The OBR assesses compliance with the welfare cap under the Charter for Budget Responsibility at every Autumn Statement.
The policy was designed as a trap for Labour, but the Chancellor would appear to have been caught in it himself.	The policy was designed as a trap for Labour, but the Chancellor would appear to have been caught in it himself.
“It’ll be breached ... he’s not going to get it for next year,” said one Westminster source.	“It’ll be breached ... he’s not going to get it for next year,” said one Westminster source.
£115bn Welfare Cap breach expected, as Commons vote prepared: my story - https://t.co/LYR9v43cB3	£115bn Welfare Cap breach expected, as Commons vote prepared: my story - https://t.co/LYR9v43cB3
Updated at 9.08am GMT	Updated at 9.08am GMT
8.54am GMT08:54	8.54am GMT08:54
Under Osborne’s original plans to cut tax credits by £4.4bn, the Resolution Foundation said that 3.3m families would lose on average £1,300 a year.	Under Osborne’s original plans to cut tax credits by £4.4bn, the Resolution Foundation said that 3.3m families would lose on average £1,300 a year.
According to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, under the revised plans families earning around £20,000 a year could now lose “only” around £300 a year.	According to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, under the revised plans families earning around £20,000 a year could now lose “only” around £300 a year.
Tory tax credit rebels expect big pulling back from cuts, MAYBE down to £8 a wk loss but details not at all clear or confirmed tonight	Tory tax credit rebels expect big pulling back from cuts, MAYBE down to £8 a wk loss but details not at all clear or confirmed tonight
The inverted commas around that “only” are important; the problem for Osborne is that the sums involved in the original cuts were so enormous that, even if he takes substantial steps to lessen their impact, they will probably still hammer the blue-collar, inwork “strivers” that the Tories claim to represent.	The inverted commas around that “only” are important; the problem for Osborne is that the sums involved in the original cuts were so enormous that, even if he takes substantial steps to lessen their impact, they will probably still hammer the blue-collar, inwork “strivers” that the Tories claim to represent.
8.54am GMT08:54	8.54am GMT08:54
You can also get up to speed on today’s events with our Q&A on the spending review, explaining which departments could be hit hardest:	You can also get up to speed on today’s events with our Q&A on the spending review, explaining which departments could be hit hardest:
Related: What is George Osborne's spending review?	Related: What is George Osborne's spending review?
8.51am GMT08:51	8.51am GMT08:51
Katie Allen has pulled together the most important charts to explain today’s autumn statement:	Katie Allen has pulled together the most important charts to explain today’s autumn statement:
Related: Autumn statement 2015: five key charts	Related: Autumn statement 2015: five key charts
It shows how Britain has rarely achieved a budget surplus. The last one was back in 2001:	It shows how Britain has rarely achieved a budget surplus. The last one was back in 2001:
8.43am GMT08:43	8.43am GMT08:43
IFS says hitting Osborne's budget surplus target will be 'close to impossible' to achieve if economy underperforms	IFS says hitting Osborne's budget surplus target will be 'close to impossible' to achieve if economy underperforms
The most influential commentator on the autumn statement, by a mile, is the director of the tax and spending thinktank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies. As all chancellors have discovered in recent years, if you can persuade the IFS that your numbers stack up, in the court of informed opinion you’ve won, regardless of what the opposition or anyone else has to say. But if the IFS is critical, you’re in trouble.	The most influential commentator on the autumn statement, by a mile, is the director of the tax and spending thinktank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies. As all chancellors have discovered in recent years, if you can persuade the IFS that your numbers stack up, in the court of informed opinion you’ve won, regardless of what the opposition or anyone else has to say. But if the IFS is critical, you’re in trouble.
The current head of the IFS is Paul Johnson and he was on the Today programme this morning. He made two key points.	The current head of the IFS is Paul Johnson and he was on the Today programme this morning. He made two key points.
[Osborne] set himself a really tough target to get to this surplus in 2019, and the problem with this target is it’s very much unlike the targets he set himself in the last parliament; it is fixed and inflexible. So if it turns out that the economy does even a little worse than he’s expecting over the next few years, I think it will be close to impossible to meet unless he’s going to put some tax increases in place.	[Osborne] set himself a really tough target to get to this surplus in 2019, and the problem with this target is it’s very much unlike the targets he set himself in the last parliament; it is fixed and inflexible. So if it turns out that the economy does even a little worse than he’s expecting over the next few years, I think it will be close to impossible to meet unless he’s going to put some tax increases in place.
If the economy pans out as he currently expects, and tax revenues come in as he expects, it might be just about reachable but only at the cost of really big cuts in things like the Home Office, local government and other departments.	If the economy pans out as he currently expects, and tax revenues come in as he expects, it might be just about reachable but only at the cost of really big cuts in things like the Home Office, local government and other departments.
There is a reasonable case to be made for getting into surplus at some point because that increases the rate at which we pay down the debt we have, which is currently around 80% of national income which is quite a high level. But whether he meets that target in 2019 or 2020 or 2021 doesn’t matter terribly much from an economic point of view.	There is a reasonable case to be made for getting into surplus at some point because that increases the rate at which we pay down the debt we have, which is currently around 80% of national income which is quite a high level. But whether he meets that target in 2019 or 2020 or 2021 doesn’t matter terribly much from an economic point of view.
From an economic point of view, even if you want to get into surplus and stay there, the speed in which you do it doesn’t matter that much, as much as getting there within some period.	From an economic point of view, even if you want to get into surplus and stay there, the speed in which you do it doesn’t matter that much, as much as getting there within some period.
8.36am GMT08:36	8.36am GMT08:36
Autumn statement: Borrowing target in doubt	Autumn statement: Borrowing target in doubt
Graeme Wearden	Graeme Wearden
The latest borrowing forecasts are unlikely to bring much cheer.	The latest borrowing forecasts are unlikely to bring much cheer.
The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise UP its forecast for the deficit this financial year, from £69.5bn to perhaps £74bn. That’s because last month’s public finance figures were alarmingly poor, with Britain borrowing more than at any time since 2009 to cover weak tax revenues.	The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise UP its forecast for the deficit this financial year, from £69.5bn to perhaps £74bn. That’s because last month’s public finance figures were alarmingly poor, with Britain borrowing more than at any time since 2009 to cover weak tax revenues.
So while this year’s deficit (the black line above) will still be lower than last year (the blue line), it might be several billion pounds higher than we were promised in the budget.	So while this year’s deficit (the black line above) will still be lower than last year (the blue line), it might be several billion pounds higher than we were promised in the budget.
That’s a blow to a chancellor who has welded his reputation to the cause of deficit reduction. It also gives George Osborne less wriggle room to soften austerity, if he remains committed to balancing the books his parliament.	That’s a blow to a chancellor who has welded his reputation to the cause of deficit reduction. It also gives George Osborne less wriggle room to soften austerity, if he remains committed to balancing the books his parliament.
And crucially, the OBR (Britain’s fiscal watchdog) might conclude that borrowing will be higher in future years too. That would put Osborne’s goal of a £10bn surplus in 2019-20 in doubt.	And crucially, the OBR (Britain’s fiscal watchdog) might conclude that borrowing will be higher in future years too. That would put Osborne’s goal of a £10bn surplus in 2019-20 in doubt.
Although tax credits could dominate the headlines, economists are looking for some other measures to stimulate growth.	Although tax credits could dominate the headlines, economists are looking for some other measures to stimulate growth.
We already know that the chancellor is planning to boost housebuilding, to address Britain’s affordable housing crisis.	We already know that the chancellor is planning to boost housebuilding, to address Britain’s affordable housing crisis.
Businesses will be crossing their fingers that the government shakes up business rates; many are paying rates based on property values before the 2008 crash.	Businesses will be crossing their fingers that the government shakes up business rates; many are paying rates based on property values before the 2008 crash.
Infrastructure spending - a perennial favourite. The chancellor will surely bang the drum for the Northern Powerhouse, while Labour’s John McDonnell will rebut that the UK is still spending less than the 3.5% of GDP which the OECD recommends	Infrastructure spending - a perennial favourite. The chancellor will surely bang the drum for the Northern Powerhouse, while Labour’s John McDonnell will rebut that the UK is still spending less than the 3.5% of GDP which the OECD recommends
Drivers have benefitted from a freeze on fuel duty. But prices at the pump are lower, now oil is trading below $50 per barrel, so Osborne might decide that the nation’s wallets and purses can handle a higher fuel levy.	Drivers have benefitted from a freeze on fuel duty. But prices at the pump are lower, now oil is trading below $50 per barrel, so Osborne might decide that the nation’s wallets and purses can handle a higher fuel levy.
Updated at 9.52am GMT	Updated at 9.52am GMT
8.26am GMT08:26	8.26am GMT08:26
Spending review - Political challenge	Spending review - Political challenge
Andrew Sparrow	Andrew Sparrow
Today’s autumn statement from George Osborne was supposed to be the big political event of last quarter of the year. In the event, because of the Paris attacks, it does not quite feel like that, but nonetheless this is one of the landmark political moments of the year - and of the parliament too. This is what we’re getting.	Today’s autumn statement from George Osborne was supposed to be the big political event of last quarter of the year. In the event, because of the Paris attacks, it does not quite feel like that, but nonetheless this is one of the landmark political moments of the year - and of the parliament too. This is what we’re getting.
1) An autumn statement - a mini budget in itself.	1) An autumn statement - a mini budget in itself.
2) A spending review, covering government spending until 2019-20. Osborne wants to eliminate the deficit by the end of the decade and so his spending review is going to involve very, very deep cuts to departments that are not protected. It will change the shape of the state, and alter long-term what it does.	2) A spending review, covering government spending until 2019-20. Osborne wants to eliminate the deficit by the end of the decade and so his spending review is going to involve very, very deep cuts to departments that are not protected. It will change the shape of the state, and alter long-term what it does.
3) A solution to the tax credits crisis. The House of Lords rejected Osborne’s plan to save £4.4bn by cutting tax credits, and today Osborne will offer an alternative approach. In some respects this will amount to a U-turn. But will the new welfare-saving measures he proposes as an alternative prove just as unpopular? Gordon Brown faced a similar problem when his abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax backfired, and that episode damaged his reputation almost beyond repair.	3) A solution to the tax credits crisis. The House of Lords rejected Osborne’s plan to save £4.4bn by cutting tax credits, and today Osborne will offer an alternative approach. In some respects this will amount to a U-turn. But will the new welfare-saving measures he proposes as an alternative prove just as unpopular? Gordon Brown faced a similar problem when his abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax backfired, and that episode damaged his reputation almost beyond repair.
4) A settlement for the police. The Home Office is an unprotected department, and the police have been braced for significant cuts. But, since Paris, this has become much more problematic and even Tory MPs have been lobbying Osborne to protect police forces. Today we will find out to what extend he has been listening.	4) A settlement for the police. The Home Office is an unprotected department, and the police have been braced for significant cuts. But, since Paris, this has become much more problematic and even Tory MPs have been lobbying Osborne to protect police forces. Today we will find out to what extend he has been listening.
I’m Andrew Sparrow and I will be covering the statement with my colleague Graeme Wearden, bringing you all the best reaction and analysis. We will particularly be focusing on “small print alerts” - the detail in the statement that Osborne might prefer you did not notice.	I’m Andrew Sparrow and I will be covering the statement with my colleague Graeme Wearden, bringing you all the best reaction and analysis. We will particularly be focusing on “small print alerts” - the detail in the statement that Osborne might prefer you did not notice.
The key timings are:	The key timings are:
12pm: PMQs. (We will cover David Cameron’s exchanges with Jeremy Corbyn, and anything autumn statement-related.	12pm: PMQs. (We will cover David Cameron’s exchanges with Jeremy Corbyn, and anything autumn statement-related.
12.30pm: Osborne delivers the autumn statement.	12.30pm: Osborne delivers the autumn statement.
If you want to follow us on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow and Graeme is on @graemewearden.	If you want to follow us on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow and Graeme is on @graemewearden.
Updated at 8.29am GMT	Updated at 8.29am GMT

Previous version 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Next version