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| Spanish pollsters cautious as election campaign opens | |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| It has dominated Spain’s national conversation for months. But Friday marks the official start of the country’s general election campaign, with parties seeking to woo voters in one of the most unpredictable elections since the country’s transition to democracy. | It has dominated Spain’s national conversation for months. But Friday marks the official start of the country’s general election campaign, with parties seeking to woo voters in one of the most unpredictable elections since the country’s transition to democracy. |
| “These are the most volatile elections of recent years,” said Manuel Mostaza Barrios of polling group Sigma Dos. “For the first time in general elections in Spain we have four parties polling above 15% when it comes to voter intention.” | “These are the most volatile elections of recent years,” said Manuel Mostaza Barrios of polling group Sigma Dos. “For the first time in general elections in Spain we have four parties polling above 15% when it comes to voter intention.” |
| Since the death of General Francisco Franco in 1975 the country’s politics have been dominated by two parties, with a smattering of representation from regions such as Catalonia and the Basque country. | Since the death of General Francisco Franco in 1975 the country’s politics have been dominated by two parties, with a smattering of representation from regions such as Catalonia and the Basque country. |
| Related: Environmentalists appeal to Spanish parties ahead of December elections | Related: Environmentalists appeal to Spanish parties ahead of December elections |
| But the political panorama changed when anti-austerity party Podemos won five seats in the 2014 European elections, signalling that many Spaniards were seeking alternatives to a political class tainted by double-digit unemployment, austerity measures and an endless barrage of corruption scandals. “Everything started to change at that moment,” said Mostaza Barrios. | But the political panorama changed when anti-austerity party Podemos won five seats in the 2014 European elections, signalling that many Spaniards were seeking alternatives to a political class tainted by double-digit unemployment, austerity measures and an endless barrage of corruption scandals. “Everything started to change at that moment,” said Mostaza Barrios. |
| May’s municipal and regional elections drove the first stake through the country’s bipartisan system, yielding leftist mayors in half a dozen cities and turning centre-right Ciudadanos and Podemos into kingmakers in many regions. Now, as Spaniards gear up to cast their ballots on 20 December, the country’s general elections are being billed as the final test of how deep the desire for change runs in Spanish society. | May’s municipal and regional elections drove the first stake through the country’s bipartisan system, yielding leftist mayors in half a dozen cities and turning centre-right Ciudadanos and Podemos into kingmakers in many regions. Now, as Spaniards gear up to cast their ballots on 20 December, the country’s general elections are being billed as the final test of how deep the desire for change runs in Spanish society. |
| The Socialist Workers’ party, Ciudadanos and Podemos have made reform a central plank of their platforms, vowing to overhaul the constitution, crack down on corruption and redefine the relationship between the central government in Madrid and the country’s autonomous regions. | The Socialist Workers’ party, Ciudadanos and Podemos have made reform a central plank of their platforms, vowing to overhaul the constitution, crack down on corruption and redefine the relationship between the central government in Madrid and the country’s autonomous regions. |
| Their push for change has been counteracted by the ruling People’s party, whose leader, Mariano Rajoy – the current prime minister – says change could risk derailing the country’s tepid economic recovery and even lead to the country’s breakup. | Their push for change has been counteracted by the ruling People’s party, whose leader, Mariano Rajoy – the current prime minister – says change could risk derailing the country’s tepid economic recovery and even lead to the country’s breakup. |
| “In these times of international upheaval, better to limit experiments to gases and eyedroppers,” PP spokesman Pablo Casado recently told reporters, reinforcing its campaign slogan of “España, en serio” (“Spain, seriously”). | “In these times of international upheaval, better to limit experiments to gases and eyedroppers,” PP spokesman Pablo Casado recently told reporters, reinforcing its campaign slogan of “España, en serio” (“Spain, seriously”). |
| Related: Almodóvar urges Spanish left to unite for change after victories for citizen platforms | Related: Almodóvar urges Spanish left to unite for change after victories for citizen platforms |
| The lengths that the PP is willing to go to in order to mark the distance between Rajoy and his challengers was laid bare this week, as Rajoy skipped the first leaders’ debate of the election, instead giving a one-on-one television interview in the same time slot, urging voters to spurn change in favour of continuity. | The lengths that the PP is willing to go to in order to mark the distance between Rajoy and his challengers was laid bare this week, as Rajoy skipped the first leaders’ debate of the election, instead giving a one-on-one television interview in the same time slot, urging voters to spurn change in favour of continuity. |
| The latest poll, released on Thursday by the Sociological Research Centre (CIS), suggests that the strategy might be working for the PP. The survey, based on more than 17,000 interviews, showed the PP could win 28.6% of the vote, giving the party as many as 128 seats but leaving them short of a majority in the 350-seat parliament. The Socialists would come second with 20.8% of the vote, earning up to 89 seats. | The latest poll, released on Thursday by the Sociological Research Centre (CIS), suggests that the strategy might be working for the PP. The survey, based on more than 17,000 interviews, showed the PP could win 28.6% of the vote, giving the party as many as 128 seats but leaving them short of a majority in the 350-seat parliament. The Socialists would come second with 20.8% of the vote, earning up to 89 seats. |
| Ciudadanos, buoyed by its strong showing at the Catalan elections in September, continues its upward climb, moving to within spitting distance of the Socialists with 19% of the vote and up to 66 seats, while Podemos and its associated regional parties would earn 15.7% of the vote and as many as 49 seats. A third of those polled said they were still undecided, planning to abstain, or refused to state their preference. | Ciudadanos, buoyed by its strong showing at the Catalan elections in September, continues its upward climb, moving to within spitting distance of the Socialists with 19% of the vote and up to 66 seats, while Podemos and its associated regional parties would earn 15.7% of the vote and as many as 49 seats. A third of those polled said they were still undecided, planning to abstain, or refused to state their preference. |
| As the country’s traditional and emerging parties battled for votes, the duel closely mirrored the country’s urban and rural divide, said José Pablo Ferrándiz of polling group Metroscopia. “There are two Spains when it comes to the elections. There is the urban Spain that votes for emerging parties,” he said. “Then there is the rural Spain where PP and the Socialists dominate.” | As the country’s traditional and emerging parties battled for votes, the duel closely mirrored the country’s urban and rural divide, said José Pablo Ferrándiz of polling group Metroscopia. “There are two Spains when it comes to the elections. There is the urban Spain that votes for emerging parties,” he said. “Then there is the rural Spain where PP and the Socialists dominate.” |
| The territorial divide could provide a boost to Spain’s traditional parties, thanks to an electoral system that gives more weight to votes from rural areas than urban ones. “So you could see Ciudadanos overtaking the Socialists in terms of number of votes but not number of delegates in the legislature,” said Pablo Ferrándiz. | The territorial divide could provide a boost to Spain’s traditional parties, thanks to an electoral system that gives more weight to votes from rural areas than urban ones. “So you could see Ciudadanos overtaking the Socialists in terms of number of votes but not number of delegates in the legislature,” said Pablo Ferrándiz. |
| The splintered result is also influenced by a generational gap. As Spaniards began to push for change, the median age of the country’s political leaders dropped drastically. The Socialists today are led by 43-year-old Pedro Sánchez, while Ciudadanos’s Albert Rivera is 36 and Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias is 37. | The splintered result is also influenced by a generational gap. As Spaniards began to push for change, the median age of the country’s political leaders dropped drastically. The Socialists today are led by 43-year-old Pedro Sánchez, while Ciudadanos’s Albert Rivera is 36 and Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias is 37. |
| But Rajoy, 60, remains the most popular option with Spaniards over the age of 55. Not only is this the demographic that is most likely to vote, said Ferrándiz, it is also a group that’s grown in number. “Since 2011, the number of people in Spain under the age of 34 years has dropped by almost a million while those over 55 have increased by a million,” he said. | But Rajoy, 60, remains the most popular option with Spaniards over the age of 55. Not only is this the demographic that is most likely to vote, said Ferrándiz, it is also a group that’s grown in number. “Since 2011, the number of people in Spain under the age of 34 years has dropped by almost a million while those over 55 have increased by a million,” he said. |
| The result is a complex political panorama that has kept pollsters on their toes for much of the year. “Everything has changed so quickly, we’ve had to change how we analyse polls,” said Ferrándiz. “It’s very difficult to say today who might emerge as the winner.” | The result is a complex political panorama that has kept pollsters on their toes for much of the year. “Everything has changed so quickly, we’ve had to change how we analyse polls,” said Ferrándiz. “It’s very difficult to say today who might emerge as the winner.” |