Only strong policies can deliver a world free of fossil fuels
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Version 0 of 1. Oil tankers take a long time to turn around. The skyscraper-length ships carry so much weight and momentum that turning one 180 degrees takes at least 40 minutes even in calm seas. It is a fitting metaphor for the challenge our leaders face at the climate summit in Paris as they try to steer a new direction away from fossil fuels. Decades of dirty energy investment, the dead-weight of vested interests, shifting political tides and – let’s be honest – cheap fossil fuel prices, mean that changing the world’s entire energy system to remove the carbon causing climate change will also be a slow turnaround. Thankfully the world seems poised to chart a course for a cleaner energy future. This is not a moment too soon. If the international energy system continues on its present course, world temperatures could rise almost 3C by 2100. To avoid the consequences such a rapid climatic change could bring, global emissions need to peak and start to fall within the next few years. Campaigners will rightly point out this week that the commitments agreed in Paris do not add up to enough to avoid the dangerous 2C threshold. A legally binding agreement to rapidly and fairly reduce emissions – reflecting what the science tells us we need to do to avoid disaster – would be the perfect outcome. But that is simply not politically possible at the moment and we must not let the best, become the enemy of the good. We should not give up on the goal of a legal cap on global emissions that keeps us below 2C. But right now we just need to get things moving in the right direction. The UN has done a good job of getting countries on board with the looser idea of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and I am hopeful that the deal reached next week will be a reasonably good one. But Paris is only the beginning of a slow transition from a fossil-fuelled world to one powered by clean technology. Implementing the pledges made in Paris will be crucial. To get that tanker turning we need a clear steer from governments. Our own included. That means strong and consistent policy. Governments in the UK have had a good record on climate leadership. The UK introduced the world’s first legally binding carbon budgets, the Scottish government set a target to go 100% renewable, and the present government’s recent ‘energy policy reset’ set a date to close the last of our polluting coal plants. The ‘reset’, however, does not provide the clear steer we need beyond Paris. The energy secretary, Amber Rudd envisages a new fleet of gas power stations to replace coal. Gas pumps out half the emissions of coal, at roughly 450 g CO2 per kilowatt hour (KWh), so this will deliver some savings in the short term. But these new power stations will last for decades and can only be consistent with our climate change targets if their emissions can be brought down to under 100g CO2 per KWh by the 2030s. That can only be achieved if technology is developed to capture and store the carbon pollution they produce. However, the energy department has pulled the plug on funding for a £1bn government competition to develop carbon capture and storage (CCS) pilot projects. It was 10 years in the making, with companies only weeks away from submitting final entries. This latest policy reversal comes at a time when the energy industry’s trust in the government was already sinking. Since coming to power the government has also scrapped subsidies for renewables and ended the green deal for energy efficiency and planned regulation on zero carbon homes. This is extraordinarily short-sighted. Onshore wind farms and solar power are rapidly approaching cost parity with other forms of power, but they still need support. And the best way to cut carbon, while also reducing bills and enhancing our energy security, is to build energy efficient homes and businesses. This would save us all money and reduce the need for new gas power stations. Getting a good deal in the next two weeks is essential, but it represents only the first turn of the tanker’s wheel. A clear and consistent steer from government is crucial to instil the confidence needed for the big investment decisions before the end of this decade to meet our carbon budgets. If the government locks us into 20th century fossil fuel technology now, we may be forced to make a more expensive emergency turnaround later. The Kyoto protocol sank after it was agreed because governments did not commit to it, we must not let the same fate befall Paris. The move towards a sustainable energy system shouldn’t be seen as a cost to be avoided, but as an opportunity to innovate, create jobs and enrich our economy. We should join the rest of the world in charting a course for a clean energy future. |