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Venezuela: What will change after the opposition win? Venezuela: What changes will the new Congress bring?
(30 days later)
An opposition coalition has won an overwhelming victory in Venezuela's legislative election. For the first time in 16 years, it will control Congress. What changes are likely to be brought about by this result? An opposition coalition won an overwhelming victory in Venezuela's legislative election on 6 December. For the first time in more than 16 years, it will control Congress. The newly elected lawmakers take up their seats on 5 January. What changes are likely to be brought about by this new National Assembly?
Who is in control?Who is in control?
Venezuela has a presidential political system. The president is the head of the executive.Venezuela has a presidential political system. The president is the head of the executive.
The National Assembly is the legislative branch. It consists of just one chamber with 167 members.The National Assembly is the legislative branch. It consists of just one chamber with 167 members.
President Nicolas Maduro was elected in April 2013 to a six-year term.President Nicolas Maduro was elected in April 2013 to a six-year term.
Up until now, his party, the socialist PSUV, had a majority in the National Assembly, allowing him to pass laws smoothly and even allowing him to govern temporarily by executive decree. Up until 5 January 2016, his party, the socialist PSUV, had a majority in the National Assembly, allowing him to pass laws smoothly and even allowing him to govern temporarily by executive decree.
President Maduro will now face a National Assembly in which the opposition is in the majority. President Maduro will now face a National Assembly in which the opposition MUD coalition is in the majority.
Venezuelan politics have hitherto been highly polarised and the opposition could hold up much of President Maduro's legislation.Venezuelan politics have hitherto been highly polarised and the opposition could hold up much of President Maduro's legislation.
The likely result is going to be a power struggle between the executive and the legislative.The likely result is going to be a power struggle between the executive and the legislative.
Under Venezuela's constitution, the president only has a limited veto power. How much power does the National Assembly have?
The president can send laws back to the National Assembly, but the latter can override the veto with an absolute majority. The National Assembly can pass most laws with a simple majority (50% of the lawmakers plus one).
Will President Maduro remain in power? Under Venezuela's constitution, the president only has limited powers to veto laws.
President Maduro's term runs until April 2019. The president can send laws back to the National Assembly, but the latter can override the veto with an absolute majority (half of those present at the time of the vote plus one).
However, once he is halfway into his term, from April 2016 onwards, a recall referendum could be held. With a three-fifths majority, lawmakers can give the president the power to rule by decree, sack the vice-president and ministers and hire and fire members of the country's National Electoral Council.
Four million signatures are needed to trigger it and some opposition members have already threatened to seek such a referendum. With a two-thirds majority, the National Assembly can remove judges from the Supreme Court and create a constituent assembly with a view to rewriting the constitution.
President Maduro's predecessor in office, Hugo Chavez, won a recall referendum in 2004, but Mr Maduro's popularity has never been as high as that of his mentor. How strong is the opposition?
If the opposition wins two-thirds of the vote it will have a supermajority. The opposition MUD coalition won 112 seats in the elections on 6 December.
It could then create a constituent assembly with a view to rewriting the constitution. That gives them a two-thirds majority, also called supermajority.
A new constitution could weaken presidential powers and thereby President Maduro's position. However, since the election, the Supreme Court has suspended the inauguration of four lawmakers while it investigates allegations of electoral irregularities.
The opposition has also promised to pass an amnesty law to release opposition politicians jailed under President Maduro's government. Three of them are members of the MUD opposition coalition, the fourth is a member of President Maduro's PSUV party.
Out of jail and able to take part freely in politics, they could pose an added political threat to President Maduro's leadership. The opposition MUD coalition says its 112 elected lawmakers will attend the swearing-in ceremony on Tuesday.
What does this mean for Venezuela's 'Bolivarian Revolution'? It is not clear what will happen at the ceremony and whether the four suspended lawmakers will be able to take up their posts.
Over the past 16 years, the governing PSUV party, first under the leadership of the late Mr Chavez and more recently under Mr Maduro, has been working on changing Venezuela according to its socialist vision. What changes does the opposition want to make?
It ploughed large parts of its oil revenues into generous social programmes such as housing and poverty reduction. Opposition lawmakers said they would seek the release of dozens of politicians and activists jailed under President Maduro.
It also provided many Caribbean and Central American nations with oil at preferential prices. Mr Maduro said he would veto any amnesty law, setting the scene for the first clash between the executive and the legislative branches.
But with global oil prices plummeting, these programmes have been hard to sustain. The opposition also said it would demand that the Central Bank release key data such as inflation figures but this move seems to have been thwarted by a last-minute change to the law made by President Maduro a day before his decree powers expired.
Even before Sunday's opposition victory, the PSUV struggled to finance its social welfare programmes. If it keeps its supermajority, it could replace prosecutors and judges, but this is likely to take time.
Opposition lawmakers, who are now in the majority, could block any new legislation aimed at widening Venezuela's socialist policies.
President Maduro on Sunday called on his followers to "re-evaluate many political aspects of the revolution" although he did not clarify what those aspects would be.
What can the opposition do?
Historically, the opposition MUD coalition has been wracked by in-fighting and internal power struggles.
But buoyed by his coalition's election win, MUD Secretary-General Jesus Torrealba struck a note of unity and co-operation.
"There's room for everyone in this project, this is one single project called Venezuela, a united Venezuela," he said.
He also assured his political rivals that "we're not going into the National Assembly to trample on the minority".
And he promised his supporters that "we know how to manage this triumph".
However, during its 16 years in power, the PSUV placed many of its supporters in key positions in state institutions.
The legislative could therefore face an uphill struggle getting any laws it passes implemented.
How much power the opposition will yield depends on the final result.
With a three-fifths majority, it will be able to replace the vice-president and ministers, as well as members of the electoral body.
If it wins a supermajority, it could also replace prosecutors and judges, but this is likely to take time.
What about the economy?What about the economy?
Venezuela's economy is in dire straits. Venezuela's economy is in dire straits, suffering from skyrocketing inflation, shortages of some basic goods and dwindling revenue from oil.
Skyrocketing inflation, shortages of some basic goods and dwindling revenue from oil are unlikely to be fixed quickly. Opposition lawmakers have promised reforms but without access to key economic data, depleted state coffers and an executive with an iron grip on the finances it is hard to see how it can make sweeping changes quickly.
One of Venezuela's main problems is its almost exclusive reliance on oil, the price of which has fallen sharply.One of Venezuela's main problems is its almost exclusive reliance on oil, the price of which has fallen sharply.
Diversifying its production would be key to its recovery as global oil prices remain low, however this would not be a speedy endeavour in a country which has focussed almost exclusively on its oil production for decades.Diversifying its production would be key to its recovery as global oil prices remain low, however this would not be a speedy endeavour in a country which has focussed almost exclusively on its oil production for decades.
The opposition says Venezuela's problems have been further exacerbated by government mismanagement.The opposition says Venezuela's problems have been further exacerbated by government mismanagement.
But replacing personnel in state-run companies such as oil giant PdVSA would take time and likely encounter opposition from the executive.But replacing personnel in state-run companies such as oil giant PdVSA would take time and likely encounter opposition from the executive.
Many Venezuelans said they were prompted to vote for the opposition because of the shortages and endless queues they have to brave to get some basic goods.Many Venezuelans said they were prompted to vote for the opposition because of the shortages and endless queues they have to brave to get some basic goods.
But lifting price controls, which many people say are to blame for the shortages, could turn poorer Venezuelans against their newly elected lawmakers.But lifting price controls, which many people say are to blame for the shortages, could turn poorer Venezuelans against their newly elected lawmakers.
A reform of its strict currency controls would also be unlikely to be immediate.A reform of its strict currency controls would also be unlikely to be immediate.
In the short term, the legislative could push for the publication of accurate economic indicators, which have not been published since last year, leaving many Venezuelans to wonder how bad the economic situation really is. Will President Maduro remain in power?
President Maduro's term runs until April 2019.
However, once he is halfway into his term, from April 2016 onwards, a recall referendum could be held.
Four million signatures are needed to trigger it and some opposition members have already threatened to seek such a referendum.
President Maduro's predecessor in office, Hugo Chavez, won a recall referendum in 2004, but Mr Maduro's popularity has never been as high as that of his mentor.