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Donald Trump's polling lead means little at this stage, past data shows Donald Trump's polling lead means little at this stage, past data shows
(35 minutes later)
Donald Trump has decisively led nationwide Republican primary polls largely uninterrupted since mid-July. He is the clear frontrunner and a growing number of commentators view him as a favourite to clinch the Republican nomination. This belief is based almost entirely on polling, so we took a look at what the polls were saying at this stage of the contest in past election cycles.Donald Trump has decisively led nationwide Republican primary polls largely uninterrupted since mid-July. He is the clear frontrunner and a growing number of commentators view him as a favourite to clinch the Republican nomination. This belief is based almost entirely on polling, so we took a look at what the polls were saying at this stage of the contest in past election cycles.
Related: Donald Trump's troll army may be targeting other Republican politiciansRelated: Donald Trump's troll army may be targeting other Republican politicians
At this point in the 2004 Democratic race, Howard Dean was leading in the polls. Four years later, Hillary Clinton had a 20-point lead over Barack Obama, while in the GOP field, Rudolph Giuliani was the frontrunner. In the last presidential election in 2012, Newt Gingrich was leading in the polls at this point of the contest.At this point in the 2004 Democratic race, Howard Dean was leading in the polls. Four years later, Hillary Clinton had a 20-point lead over Barack Obama, while in the GOP field, Rudolph Giuliani was the frontrunner. In the last presidential election in 2012, Newt Gingrich was leading in the polls at this point of the contest.
They all had strong leads.They all had strong leads.
At this point in -- 2004: Dean +8 2008 (D): H. Clinton +19.6 (R): Giuliani +8.2 2012: Gingrich +13 https://t.co/8pTnsrwBv0At this point in -- 2004: Dean +8 2008 (D): H. Clinton +19.6 (R): Giuliani +8.2 2012: Gingrich +13 https://t.co/8pTnsrwBv0
But in the end, none of the above clinched the nomination. Their leads eventually faded, albeit at varying speeds: Gingrich and Giuliani’s in four weeks, Dean and Clinton’s over eight and nine weeks respectively.But in the end, none of the above clinched the nomination. Their leads eventually faded, albeit at varying speeds: Gingrich and Giuliani’s in four weeks, Dean and Clinton’s over eight and nine weeks respectively.
John Kerry won the Democratic nomination in 2004, but in December 2003 he was rarely hitting 10% in the polls, while Barack Obama trailed Clinton by nearly 20 points at the end of 2007.John Kerry won the Democratic nomination in 2004, but in December 2003 he was rarely hitting 10% in the polls, while Barack Obama trailed Clinton by nearly 20 points at the end of 2007.
John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee, was behind both Giuliani and Mike Huckabee in December 2007, and in several polls was in the fifth spot, behind Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee, was behind both Giuliani and Mike Huckabee in December 2007, and in several polls was in the fifth spot, behind Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.
Four years ago the GOP candidate was Romney. He was 10 to 15 points behind Gingrich at this stage of the election.Four years ago the GOP candidate was Romney. He was 10 to 15 points behind Gingrich at this stage of the election.
There are other examples in earlier primary races too: in late 1991, Bill Clinton was polling at about 8%.There are other examples in earlier primary races too: in late 1991, Bill Clinton was polling at about 8%.
There are, of course, other elections in which the Democratic or the Republican candidate that was leading at this stage did go on to win the nomination. They included, among others, Ronald Reagan (1980), George HW Bush (1988), George W Bush (2000) and Walter Mondale (1984).There are, of course, other elections in which the Democratic or the Republican candidate that was leading at this stage did go on to win the nomination. They included, among others, Ronald Reagan (1980), George HW Bush (1988), George W Bush (2000) and Walter Mondale (1984).
The point is this: the person who leads in the polls at this stage of the election may or may not win the nomination. Polling is one predictor in an election – and any definitive argument based on polls alone is inconclusive based on the evidence available.The point is this: the person who leads in the polls at this stage of the election may or may not win the nomination. Polling is one predictor in an election – and any definitive argument based on polls alone is inconclusive based on the evidence available.
In addition to historical precedent, there are other factors to consider when interpreting polls at this point in an election cycle.In addition to historical precedent, there are other factors to consider when interpreting polls at this point in an election cycle.
First, a limited number of people are paying attention to the election at this stage.First, a limited number of people are paying attention to the election at this stage.
On average, only one in three Democratic and Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire had come to a final decision before the final month of the campaign in the last two election cycles.On average, only one in three Democratic and Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire had come to a final decision before the final month of the campaign in the last two election cycles.
Assuming the same is valid today – and there is no evidence to suggest that it isn’t – this means that the vast majority of Republicans who will eventually cast a ballot have yet to decide how they will vote.Assuming the same is valid today – and there is no evidence to suggest that it isn’t – this means that the vast majority of Republicans who will eventually cast a ballot have yet to decide how they will vote.
Secondly, polling this far out is influenced by a candidate’s name recognition. This tends to favour Trump due to his pre-existing public and media profile: more voters will be aware of Trump compared with other candidates – and will already have a clear opinion of him. Conversely, for example, about 30% still say they haven’t heard enough to make up their minds about Marco Rubio.Secondly, polling this far out is influenced by a candidate’s name recognition. This tends to favour Trump due to his pre-existing public and media profile: more voters will be aware of Trump compared with other candidates – and will already have a clear opinion of him. Conversely, for example, about 30% still say they haven’t heard enough to make up their minds about Marco Rubio.
This could imply that Trump could struggle to substantially increase his support in the months to come. He will not only need the 30-odd per cent of Republicans that currently support him to actually turn out – he will need far more voters than his current level of support suggests if he is to win the nomination. This could imply that Trump could struggle to substantially increase his support in the months to come. He will not only need the 30-odd percent of Republicans that currently support him to actually turn out – he will need far more voters than his current level of support suggests if he is to win the nomination.
Trump is likely to have less room for growth compared with other candidates – which will begin to matter in the thick of the primary contests, once the Republican field slims down.Trump is likely to have less room for growth compared with other candidates – which will begin to matter in the thick of the primary contests, once the Republican field slims down.
Of course, Trump’s popularity could continue to increase and he may may well win the Republican nomination. But the truth is, based on polling alone, we simply do not know.Of course, Trump’s popularity could continue to increase and he may may well win the Republican nomination. But the truth is, based on polling alone, we simply do not know.