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| Heathrow decision delay will provoke fury but little surprise | Heathrow decision delay will provoke fury but little surprise |
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| Even by the government’s standards of inaction on the airports debate, six months to simply blandly agree with the Airports Commission’s superseded shortlist from 2013 is quite a feat. | Even by the government’s standards of inaction on the airports debate, six months to simply blandly agree with the Airports Commission’s superseded shortlist from 2013 is quite a feat. |
| Air quality remains a real issue, and government sources were keen to point out that there is still time to make a decision in six months and meet the 2030 deadline before runway capacity becomes a crisis. And the official statement does affirm that it now definitely believes a runway somewhere is needed. But this further delay until next summer will prompt resigned fury, yet little surprise, in a sector that has seen this all too often before. | |
| The current stalling over Heathrow had been widely ascribed to the government’s desire to pass the next bit of turbulence, the London mayoral election, as smoothly as possible. But the Airports Commission’s work could hardly have been more exhaustive, nor its verdict clearer. That commission was, of course, mandated in 2012 to scrutinise the issue until June 2015, handily deflecting the fire that the prime minister was then under for scrapping the planned runway in 2010, but deferring any further unpleasantness until after the general election. That was regarded by many as an intolerable delay. Now, it looks like it may simply be the start. | The current stalling over Heathrow had been widely ascribed to the government’s desire to pass the next bit of turbulence, the London mayoral election, as smoothly as possible. But the Airports Commission’s work could hardly have been more exhaustive, nor its verdict clearer. That commission was, of course, mandated in 2012 to scrutinise the issue until June 2015, handily deflecting the fire that the prime minister was then under for scrapping the planned runway in 2010, but deferring any further unpleasantness until after the general election. That was regarded by many as an intolerable delay. Now, it looks like it may simply be the start. |
| Why, though, should this commission have been any different? Even its chair, Sir Howard Davies, whose levity in public appearances may have been informed by the potential futility of his endeavours, admitted it had every chance of being ignored. It is easy to forget that Heathrow’s last false start was only just preceded by the shelving of a second runway at Stansted, which a previous inquiry had deemed necessary. And further back, commissions had pronounced for a Cublington airport, and governments had even set out to build on Maplin Sands – the ancestor of Boris Johnson’s widely derided Thames estuary dream. | Why, though, should this commission have been any different? Even its chair, Sir Howard Davies, whose levity in public appearances may have been informed by the potential futility of his endeavours, admitted it had every chance of being ignored. It is easy to forget that Heathrow’s last false start was only just preceded by the shelving of a second runway at Stansted, which a previous inquiry had deemed necessary. And further back, commissions had pronounced for a Cublington airport, and governments had even set out to build on Maplin Sands – the ancestor of Boris Johnson’s widely derided Thames estuary dream. |
| So after three years, submissions from every interested party, and the wisdom of the great and good, the political debate appears to have moved little from where it left off before Cameron launched this political diversion in 2012. Depressing for those who say expansion is needed: businesses and unions as well as the aviation industry. But some opponents will be buoyant. Indecision spells further blight and uncertainty for Heathrow’s neighbours, but the sight of the government still delaying at this point in the election cycle, with a clear mandate to build, underlines how politically toxic and potentially undeliverable a third runway would be. | So after three years, submissions from every interested party, and the wisdom of the great and good, the political debate appears to have moved little from where it left off before Cameron launched this political diversion in 2012. Depressing for those who say expansion is needed: businesses and unions as well as the aviation industry. But some opponents will be buoyant. Indecision spells further blight and uncertainty for Heathrow’s neighbours, but the sight of the government still delaying at this point in the election cycle, with a clear mandate to build, underlines how politically toxic and potentially undeliverable a third runway would be. |
| That is a line Gatwick has spun, but its own manoeuvres to get a second runway could yet backfire, with the arguments it has laid out against Heathrow in terms of aircraft pollution and noise still applicable in Sussex, even if to a smaller degree. Picking holes in the Davies report, which remains the most heavyweight work endorsing a new runway in the south-east, may not look too clever if Gatwick ends up being the sole contender. | That is a line Gatwick has spun, but its own manoeuvres to get a second runway could yet backfire, with the arguments it has laid out against Heathrow in terms of aircraft pollution and noise still applicable in Sussex, even if to a smaller degree. Picking holes in the Davies report, which remains the most heavyweight work endorsing a new runway in the south-east, may not look too clever if Gatwick ends up being the sole contender. |
| For now, Heathrow is still the scheme nearest takeoff, albeit without the immediate thrust of the state endorsement it hoped for by now. Resolving the environmental concerns, and others around airspace, can make that runway possible still. But even fewer observers may now be holding their breath for government action in six months’ time. |