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Polls showing EU referendum vote on knife-edge strengthen Cameron's hand Polls showing EU referendum vote on knife-edge strengthen Cameron's hand
(35 minutes later)
David Cameron will hope to persuade EU leaders of the urgent need for change this week after two polls suggested the referendum vote on Britain leaving the EU is on a knife-edge.David Cameron will hope to persuade EU leaders of the urgent need for change this week after two polls suggested the referendum vote on Britain leaving the EU is on a knife-edge.
An ICM poll for the Vote Leave campaign found 50% of voters were in favour of leaving, if undecideds were excluded. Overall, the result was that 41% wanted to leave while 42% wanted to stay, and the rest did not know.An ICM poll for the Vote Leave campaign found 50% of voters were in favour of leaving, if undecideds were excluded. Overall, the result was that 41% wanted to leave while 42% wanted to stay, and the rest did not know.
The poll, published in the Daily Telegraph, found the numbers were different if Cameron won no concessions on freedom of movement and curbing migration. In that case, 45% would vote for “Brexit” and 40% would back staying in the EU – or 53% to leave and 47% to remain excluding undecideds.The poll, published in the Daily Telegraph, found the numbers were different if Cameron won no concessions on freedom of movement and curbing migration. In that case, 45% would vote for “Brexit” and 40% would back staying in the EU – or 53% to leave and 47% to remain excluding undecideds.
A separate poll by Survation in the Express found 42% would vote to leave compared with 40% who would vote to stay.A separate poll by Survation in the Express found 42% would vote to leave compared with 40% who would vote to stay.
Although politicians are more wary of polling after it failed to predict the election result, the numbers are still likely to worry the campaign to stay in the EU, which has been consistently ahead.Although politicians are more wary of polling after it failed to predict the election result, the numbers are still likely to worry the campaign to stay in the EU, which has been consistently ahead.
However, the figures will also give Cameron new ammunition to warn EU leaders that British people are seriously considering the prospect of leaving if he is not allowed some flexibility to curb migration. However, the figures will also give Cameron new ammunition to warn EU leaders that British people are seriously considering the prospect of leaving if he is not allowed some flexibility to curb immigration.
In initial discussions, the prime minister has received a frosty response from fellow leaders about his proposal to ban migrants from claiming benefits for four years. He has indicated he is ready to compromise but will need some concessions to show the UK public that he is addressing concerns about migration. In initial discussions, the prime minister has received a frosty response from fellow leaders about his proposal to ban immigrants from claiming benefits for four years. He has indicated he is ready to compromise but will need some concessions to show the UK public that he is addressing concerns about immigration.
Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, has said no counter-proposals are on the table but there has been speculation these could include a so-called emergency brake on migration or a residency test before benefits can be awarded that also applies to British people. Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, has said no counter-proposals are on the table but there has been speculation these could include a so-called emergency brake on immigration or a residency test before benefits can be awarded that also applies to British people.
Cameron is hoping Thursday’s EU talks over dinner will pave the way for a deal by February, allowing him to have a referendum next year.Cameron is hoping Thursday’s EU talks over dinner will pave the way for a deal by February, allowing him to have a referendum next year.
But the cross-party European scrutiny committee of MPs warned on Monday that whatever the prime minister manages to negotiate is not good enough unless it is written into EU treaties.But the cross-party European scrutiny committee of MPs warned on Monday that whatever the prime minister manages to negotiate is not good enough unless it is written into EU treaties.
The committee, led by veteran eurosceptic Bill Cash, said Cameron’s proposals “will not deliver the legally binding and irreversible agreement leading to reform of the EU nor a fundamental change in the UK’s relationship”, which the prime minister had promised. The committee, led by veteran Eurosceptic Bill Cash, said Cameron’s proposals “will not deliver the legally binding and irreversible agreement leading to reform of the EU nor a fundamental change in the UK’s relationship”, which the prime minister had promised.
It also criticised the “reactive and opaque” renegotiation process in which Downing Street only recently revealed its demands in a public letter to the European council president, Donald Tusk.It also criticised the “reactive and opaque” renegotiation process in which Downing Street only recently revealed its demands in a public letter to the European council president, Donald Tusk.