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EU referendum: David Cameron hints vote could be held next summer EU referendum: David Cameron hints vote could be held next summer
(about 3 hours later)
David Cameron has signalled that the UK will stage its in/out referendum on the EU in 2016, while making clear that continued membership is vital for national and economic security. David Cameron has signalled that the UK will stage its referendum on membership of the European Union in 2016 and made clear his view that continued membership is vital not just to economic security but to the fight against international terrorism.
His remarks, at the close of a two-day summit in Brussels, suggest the prime minister knows he is not going to be successful in negotiating all his proposed reforms and has decided to proceed with the vote as soon as a final deal is struck at another summit in February. His remarks, at the close of a two-day EU summit in Brussels, suggest that the prime minister knows he is not going to achieve all his negotiating demands and has decided to press ahead with the vote as soon as a final deal is struck at another summit in February.
The referendum is most likely to be staged in July because there are fears in Downing Street that the migration crisis may have worsened by autumn. The referendum is most likely to be staged in July as there are fears in No 10 that the migration crisis may have worsened by next autumn.
Cameron knows he has a party management problem now to forestall any high-profile cabinet resignations by those convinced the package does not change the fundamental contours of the UK’s relationship with Europe. Cameron knows he has a party management problem now, with the possibility of high-profile cabinet resignations by those who are convinced the package does not change the fundamental contours of the UK relationship with Europe.
Related: David Cameron faces compromise over plans for EU migrants' welfare access But he was buoyed by the reception he received at a dinner in Brussels on Thursday when, uniquely for a British prime minister, he was given 45 minutes to persuade the other 27 heads of government of the merits of his case for a new deal for Britain in Europe.
At the summit the prime minister faced resistance from EU counterparts to his plans for changes to welfare rules for migrants, but he insisted good progress had been made towards reaching an agreement in February on reforms to the UK’s membership. Senior EU policymakers taking part in the closed dinner described the outcome as a breakthrough, the first in six months of negotiations, and added that Cameron had gone a long way to winning his argument, paving the way for a detailed compromise deal by February.
He has promised to hold the public vote before the end of 2017, but a deal at the summit in February would clear the way for the referendum within six months. Cameron is required to spend six weeks passing details of the legislation through parliament before four months are set aside for the campaign. But Cameron also faced strong resistance from his EU counterparts, particularly to his plans for changes to welfare rules for migrants.
Speaking at a press conference designed to generate a sense of momentum, the prime minister said: “We’ve made good progress, we are a step closer to agreement on the significant and far-reaching reforms I have proposed. The prime minister insisted that good progress had been made towards an agreement in February on reforms to the UK’s membership.
But three countries – Belgium, Portugal and Greece – staged a last-minute bid at midnight on Thursday to derail his campaign, demanding that the benefits curbs issue be dropped altogether from the negotiations.
They were overruled, but the incident highlighted European resistance to several of Cameron’s demands, problems certain to resurface over the next two months.
Cameron has promised to hold a public vote before the end of 2017, but a deal at the summit in February would clear the way for the referendum within six months. He is required to spend six weeks passing details of the legislation through parliament before four months are set aside for the campaign.
Related: David Cameron's savvy speech to EU leaders offers hope of referendum win
Speaking at a closing press conference designed to generate a sense of momentum, Cameron said: “We’ve made good progress. We are a step closer to agreement on the significant and far-reaching reforms I have proposed.
“It is going to be tough and there is a lot of hard work to do. But I believe 2016 will be the year we achieve something really vital, fundamentally changing the UK’s relationship with the EU and finally addressing the concerns of the British people about our membership.“It is going to be tough and there is a lot of hard work to do. But I believe 2016 will be the year we achieve something really vital, fundamentally changing the UK’s relationship with the EU and finally addressing the concerns of the British people about our membership.
“Then it will be for the British people to decide whether we remain or leave. It is a choice we will all need to think hard about.” “Then it will be for the British people to decide whether we remain or leave. It is a choice we will all need to think hard about.
In one of the clearest statements yet of his support for continued membership, Cameron said that, in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, “I firmly believe that for our economic and increasingly our national security, the best future for Britain is in a reformed EU”. “If we can get these reforms right – and I believe that we can – I firmly believe that for our economic security and increasingly for our national security, the best future for Britain is in a reformed European Union.”
“This is is a massive decision for our country. If you think about the terrorist and security threats we face, and the situation brought about by what Russia has done in Ukraine, the terrorist threat generated by the instability in the Middle East, I think we are better off standing off together with our allies and partners in a reformed Europe and that is why, if anything, this negotiation has got more important.” He added: “If you think about the terrorist and security threats we face, and the situation brought about by what Russia has done in Ukraine, [and] the terrorist threat generated by the instability in the Middle East, I think we are better off standing together with our allies and partners in a reformed Europe and that is why, if anything, this negotiation has got more important.”
Pressed on whether he had enough time to secure a deal by February, Cameron said: “I have been working on this with a clear mandate for the British people since May and what matters is that these changes are legally binding and irreversible. Several EU leaders listening to Cameron’s argument were highly impressed, triggering a mood change about the prospects of striking a deal that could keep Downing Street and the other countries satisfied.
“I want a deal in February. But I have set myself the deadline of the end of 2017, because I wanted to give myself time to get this right; it’s about the substance rather than the timing.” There will now be intensive efforts after the new year holiday to find solutions that Cameron can package as a victory in the referendum campaign while not crossing “red lines” defined by the other Europeans and also reaching legal agreements in line with EU law.
He declined to go into further detail about the compromise on the issue of banning EU migrants from receiving in-work benefits until they have been in the UK for four years, saying simply that the issue remained on the table. Despite longstanding demands from No 10 that the EU’s Lisbon treaty would need to be renegotiated to meet Cameron’s terms, Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister, said Cameron had emphasised to the other leaders that he was no longer seeking treaty change.
But it is clear he is looking at an alternative, such as an emergency brake that could be applied to such benefits if public services were under severe strain. The trigger for such a brake remains to be decided and will be hard to agree on. Asked if he had time to secure a deal by February, Cameron said: “I have been working on this with a clear mandate from the British people since May. What matters is that these changes are legally binding and irreversible.
Cameron also tried to broaden the scope of the welfare package to highlight three other elements apart from in-work benefits. “I want a deal in February. But I have set myself the deadline of the end of 2017 because I wanted to give myself time to get this right – it’s about the substance rather than the timing.”
He said he was well on the way to ensuring, with the acceptance of the European commission, that immigrants would not have access to unemployment benefit for the first six months in the UK; that anyone unable to secure a job after six months would have to leave the UK; and that EU migrants in the UK would be banned from sending child benefit home. He refused to go into further detail about the nature of the compromise on the issue of banning EU immigrants from receiving in-work benefits until they have been in the UK for four years.
The prime minister knows that in terms of future party management, and threatened cabinet resignations, Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, is one of the ministers most likely to look at the welfare reforms with a Eurosceptic view. But it is clear that he is looking at an alternative, such as an emergency brake that could be applied to these benefits if public services were under severe strain.
Cameron stressed that the welfare issue was not the only item on which difficult negotiating hurdles lay ahead. One of the most important issues to be resolved was the relationship between those EU countries inside the eurozone and those outside. Cameron tried to broaden the scope of the welfare package to highlight three further elements. He knows that Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, is one of the cabinet ministers most likely to look at the welfare reforms with a forensic Eurosceptic view.
He said it was a statement of fact that the EU had different currencies and those inside the eurozone wanted to know that Britain would not try to block them from pressing ahead with the integration they needed. He said he was well on the way to ensuring that migrants would not have access to unemployment benefits for the first six months in the UK; anyone unable to secure a job after six months would have to leave; and EU migrants would not be allowed to send child benefit home.
“My whole point is I do not want to stand in the way to make it work well,” he said. “But likewise, it is important we have a set of principles that ensure Britain and other currencies outside the euro cannot be put at a disadvantage.”