In New Hampshire, liberals and independents fuel Sanders’s strength
|
Version 0 of 1. HAMPTON, N.H. — David Gandt, 40, is known for being a pragmatic voter. But this time, he is torn. As he settled into his seat inside a packed high school auditorium waiting for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to appear, Gandt, a registered independent, summed up the choice between Sanders and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton this way, “My heart says Bernie, but my head says Hillary.” Polls show that likely Democratic primary voters think Clinton has the best shot of winning in a general election. Clinton is also expanding her leads nationally and in Iowa, another early voting state. She has devoted time to campaigning in states well beyond the early contests — a sign that her team is already eyeing the general election. But about seven weeks before voters head to the polls, Sanders looks like he has a real shot of winning in New Hampshire, where the Democratic field will gather for its third presidential debate Saturday. The most recent survey gave him a 10-point lead over Clinton. Perhaps it is the state’s penchant for cutting against the grain, or perhaps it is the Vermont lawmaker’s home-court advantage in a neighboring state. Sanders appears to have accomplished something few thought would be possible for a self-described democratic socialist seeking the nation’s highest office: He is appealing to a broad cross-section of voters. In the Granite State, Sanders’s candidacy has been buoyed by the support of committed progressives who want their party to move farther left. But he is also beginning to chip away at a coveted constituency — independents. In the New Hampshire primaries, registered independents can vote either on the Democratic or Republican side, making them notoriously unpredictable. In the past, they have been known to, for example, lean Democratic in the general election but vote in the Republican primary to influence the results on the other side — a factor that might have contributed to Barack Obama’s narrow loss here to Clinton in 2008. Clinton’s supporters agree that the race will probably be close again, and they are grinding out a campaign here at the grass-roots level. “You never know with New Hampshire,” said Cathy Battistelli, 59, a Concord-based volunteer for Clinton. “ ‘Live free or die’ kind of says it all. “You have a lot of independent-thinking people here. And people do make up their minds at the last minute,” she added. But among the hurdles facing Clinton is paradoxically her familiarity with these voters, some of whom harbor deep-seated concerns about her character and her ability to overcome entrenched Republican opposition. One of them is Jo-Jo Nadeau, an independent voter, who sat waiting for Sanders to speak in the Winnacunnet High School auditorium Tuesday. His wife of 35 years, who attended this school and is registered as an independent, is a “die-hard Bernie supporter,” he said. Nadeau is not so sure. “I definitely don’t want Hillary to advance,” Nadeau said. “She’s a thief and a crook.” But how did Sanders expect to pay for his political wish list? “I paid for my way through college,” the retired engineer said, noting that he grew up in a conservative Republican household that values fiscal responsibility. His mind wandered back to his college days in the 1970s at the University of New Hampshire. In the summers, he could land a good construction job and make the $3,000 he needed to pay his tuition. These days, tuition runs closer to $17,000. “Where does a kid get that kind of money?” Nadeau said. “You can’t get that in a summer job. Something has to happen when it comes to a college education because it’s going to be like it was in the ’20s. College is only going to be for the chosen few.” The appeal of Sanders’ candidacy has a lot to do with those kinds of concerns about economic security for the middle class and those seeking to rise into it. Nearly two hours later, after Sanders wrapped up his remarks in the auditorium, Nadeau said that he was satisfied with Sanders’s answers to his questions. “My interest has improved,” he said. “The cost of education: That has to be fixed.” It isn’t that voters believe Clinton is unwilling or incapable of addressing bread and butter issues important to Democrats if she were elected president — but many worry that she will be beset by visceral opposition from Republicans that would make governance virtually impossible. Gandt said that he feared that the conservative media would have a “field day” trying to halt Clinton’s initiatives. “There’s a deep-seated hatred of Hillary among those people,” he said. Among progressives, that fear, combined with a sense that Clinton is already trying to appease Republicans by shifting to the center, has them bolting for Sanders. “We don’t need any more Blue Dog Democrats,” said Virginia T. Tower, 57, who supported Clinton in the 2008 primary but now supports Sanders. Some Sanders supporters see the enthusiasm and grass-roots support for his candidacy as similar to the forces that carried Obama to the White House. Sanders has galvanized young and first-time voters, and an enthusiasm rooted in progressive idealism reminiscent of Obama. But like Obama’s 2008 run, the interparty divisions in this race — this time between Sanders and Clinton — center largely around questions about Sanders’ electability, and Clinton’s ability and willingness, to bring about real change. “I remind my friends now: In 2007, when you were barely talking to me because I was supporting Barack and you were not and you were saying, ‘You’re a proud feminist. Why are you supporting Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton?’ ” said Sylvia Gale, 66, a Sanders supporter. “I said then what I say now: He brought a genuine affect and inspiration. . . . He brought a promise of a new regime, a new hope, a new eye on to the things that our country should be paying attention.” “Was it all it could be? Was it all that we had hoped for? Absolutely not,” she said. “But is the promise still there? And is Bernie Sanders the one to bring it just two steps further, three steps further? I believe he is.” Sanders has long acknowledged that winning in New Hampshire is not enough. He needs to win in Iowa and also perform well in the states that come after both of those contests. “I’m better known in New Hampshire than in other states, and that’s I think why we’re doing so well here,” Sanders said in Dover on Tuesday. Clinton’s predicament here could be similar to one that her husband faced 24 years ago running in the Democratic primary against former senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts, another neighboring New England state. Bill Clinton lost that race by nearly 10 points but went on to win the Democratic nomination in a slog that required dominating super Tuesday states. “It will be a factor,” said New Hampshire state Rep. Peter Schmidt, who is uncommitted in the race but leaning toward Sanders. “But name recognition is not enough to do it when he’s running against the most well-known person in the Democratic field.” Ultimately, electability may be the trump card for many voters. And on that front, several hurdles stand in Sanders’s way. “People don’t know what a democratic socialist stands for,” said Eileen Ehlers, 67, a Sanders supporter. “They think socialism and they jump to communism and whatever ‘ism’ they can think of.” Clinton’s supporters said they respect Sanders, but they do not believe he is prepared to be president. Sanders has notably struggled to adapt his message of reducing income inequality to a broader set of concerns for voters, including national security issues. In recent weeks, seeking to neutralize the issue, he has incorporated national security issues into his stump speech — linking the rise of terrorism to income inequality and climate change. But another factor that buoyed Clinton’s candidacy in 2008 could help her again in New Hampshire in 2016 — the lure of her potentially historic presidency. Clinton supporter Dan Chartrand, 56, voted for former senator John Edwards (N.C.) in the 2008 primary. “I completely missed the boat,” Chartrand said. “But I’m not missing the boat in 2016.” “I want young women to look to secretary Clinton and then hopefully President Clinton and see that there is a woman in the oval office,” he said. |