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Syria war: Report claims 'third of rebels share IS aims' Syria war: Third of rebels share IS aims, report claims
(about 4 hours later)
At least 15 rebel forces in Syria are ready to succeed so-called Islamic State (IS) if it is defeated by the US-led coalition, new research suggests. About a third of rebel groups in Syria - some 100,000 fighters - share the ideology of so-called Islamic State (IS), new research suggests.
The Centre on Religion and Geopolitics, linked to former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, also says that 60% of the rebels could be classified as Islamists. The Centre on Religion and Geopolitics, linked to former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, said defeating IS militarily "would not end global jihadism".
It argues that attempts by world powers to distinguish between moderate and extremist factions are flawed. That would require an "intellectual and theological defeat" of its ideology.
Western countries have stepped up air strikes against IS in Syria and Iraq. The Syrian conflict has killed more than 250,000 people. Millions more have been displaced.
But the Centre on Religion and Geopolitics said the greatest danger to the international community was groups who share the IS ideology but are currently being ignored. A Western coalition has been carrying out air strikes against IS in Syria and Iraq for more than a year.
They number about 100,000 fighters, the centre said. In September, Russian forces began air strikes against rebels in Syria, targeting "all terrorists", including IS. However, Western-backed groups are also reported to have been hit.
"The West risks making a strategic failure by focusing only on IS," the centre said. "Defeating it militarily will not end global jihadism. We cannot bomb an ideology, but our war is ideological." UN resolution
If IS is defeated, dispersed fighters and other extremists could attack targets outside Syria under a rallying cry that "the West destroyed the Caliphate", the centre warned. The Centre on Religion and Geopolitics, an initiative of the Tony Blair Faith Foundation, says that Syria now hosts the largest gathering of jihadi groups in modern times.
Such new groups could compete for the spotlight to ensure allegiance from the global fighters and financing that IS currently attracts. The report, due to be published on Monday, says the greatest danger to the international community are groups who share the IS ideology but are currently being ignored - they number about 100,000 fighters.
By contrast, fewer than a quarter of the rebels surveyed were not ideological, the centre said. Current Western efforts to define "moderate" and "extremist" rebels are bound to fail, because the groups themselves rarely make the distinction, the centre says.
But many of those were willing to fight alongside extremists and would probably accept an Islamist political settlement to the civil war, it claimed. Some 60% of Syria's major rebel groups are Islamist extremists, and many of the groups share the same aims, the study finds.
In response, the military campaign against IS must be accompanied by an "intellectual and theological defeat of the pernicious ideology that drives it", the centre said. Fewer than a quarter of the rebels surveyed were not ideological, and many were willing to fight alongside extremists and would probably accept an Islamist political settlement to the civil war.
It also said that unless Syrian President Bashar al-Assad leaves or is removed from office, the war in the country is likely to spread further. And even if IS is defeated, dispersed fighters and other extremists could attack targets outside Syria under a rallying cry that "the West destroyed the Caliphate", the centre warns.
The UN Security Council on Friday unanimously endorsed a peace plan for the Syria, including calls for a ceasefire.
The resolution sets out a timetable for formal talks and a unity government within six months. However, the resolution makes no mention of the future role of President Assad.
The centre says that unless Syrian President Bashar al-Assad leaves or is removed from office, the war in the country is likely to spread further.
Western countries have called for his departure, but Russia and China say he should not be required to leave power as a precondition for peace talks.