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| Spanish election: Conservatives win but fall short of majority, exit polls show – live updates | Spanish election: Conservatives win but fall short of majority, exit polls show – live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.14pm GMT22:14 | |
| Pablo Iglesias of Podemos has just been speaking and hailing the birth of “a new Spain” and the death of two-party politics. | |
| Podemos and the forces of change … have won more than 20% of the vote. We are the primary power in Catalonia and the Basque country … Once again, we’ve seen the forces of change gain ground … We have 69 seats from which to defend social justice and fight corruption. | |
| 9.57pm GMT21:57 | |
| Lol. The first (PP) has lost, the third (Podemos) has won, and the second (PSOE) could be president https://t.co/4aeEnwYOY7 | |
| Updated at 9.58pm GMT | |
| 9.56pm GMT21:56 | |
| Let’s not forget about the senate, says Giles Tremlett, where 208 of 266 seats are up for grabs. | |
| Spain is used to a rubber-stamp Senado. That may be about to change. More mess. | |
| Watch out for Senado. PP absolute majority. So constitutional reform impossible without it. Also battles between two houses if left rules | |
| 9.48pm GMT21:48 | |
| 9.47pm GMT21:47 | |
| Questions, questions, questions ... | |
| Waiting for Pablo Iglesias in Teatro Goya in Madrid. A remarkable result for Podemos. But does it solve anything? Or do we get a big mess? | |
| 9.46pm GMT21:46 | |
| Constitutional reform needs at least 60% of Spanish parliament. PP and Ciudadanos can block that. So Catalan deals tough, or impossible | |
| 9.43pm GMT21:43 | |
| We’re still a little way from the end of the count, but here’s a first take on the results fo far from my colleague Ashifa Kassam in Madrid: | |
| The conservative People’s party won Spain’s general election on Sunday but fell short of an absolute majority, as Spaniards fed up with corruption, austerity measures and double-digit unemployment voted to do away with the two-party dominance that has characterised modern Spanish politics. | |
| With 84% of the votes counted, the PP was on track to receive 122 seats, leaving them shy of a majority in the 350-seat legislature. Led by Mariano Rajoy, the current prime minister, the party earned some 28% of the vote, leaving them with a third less seats than they received in the 2011 election. | |
| The Socialists, who asserted throughout the campaign that they were best placed to rival the PP came in second, with preliminary results suggesting they could earn 93 seats and 22% of the vote. | |
| Podemos was next with 69 seats and 20.5% of the vote while Ciudadanos was on track to win 38 seats and 14% of the vote. The results suggest Podemos capitalised on the campaign to gain votes, and that pollsters underestimated the anti-austerity party’s appeal while overestimating that of centre-right Ciudadanos. | |
| With many in Spain still suffering the lingering effects of an economic crisis that sent unemployment rates soaring and triggered painful austerity measures, millions of voters turned away from the PP and Socialists, who have alternated in power for decades, and instead backed emerging parties. The PP and Socialists earned a combined vote share of around 50, as compared to the 70-80% in combined votes in past general elections.”The two-party political system is over and we are entering a new era in our country,” Podemos’ Iñigo Errejón said on Sunday as results began rolling in. | |
| Podemos did notably well in Catalonia, suggesting widespread approval for its campaign promise to hold a referendum on independence for the northeastern region. Preliminary results suggested a coalition backed by Podemos and Barcelona en Comú was poised to take first place in the region. | |
| The results could make Rajoy the first leader in Europe to be re-elected after imposing harsh austerity measures on his electorate. Rajoy’s success is an anomaly to many in Spain, given that he has been dogged by dismal popularity ratings -- in early December Rajoy ranked last among the leaders of six national parties with an average rating of 3.31 out of 10 -- as well as been implicated in a slush fund scandal that allegedly involved envelopes stuffed with cash handed over to senior figures in the PP. | |
| Rajoy ran a careful campaign, opting to skip out on two televised debates and instead make appearances on lifestyle programs. In contrast to his rivals’ message of political and institutional transformation, Rajoy sought to position his party has the best-placed to keep the fragile economic recovery on track. Pointing to the 1 million jobs created in the past two years and Spain’s position as one of the fastest growing economies of the eurozone, Rajoy warned that change could risk derailing the tepid economic recovery. “Playing around with experiments and novelties is something that a country like this one ... cannot allow in any way,” Rajoy, 60, told supporters as the campaign drew a close on Friday. “To take a step backwards now, to return to the old, tired, boring policies ... would be an error that we can’t allow as a nation.” | |
| In order to be able to govern for the next four years, the PP will have to rely on other parties, suggesting a protracted process of negotiations lie ahead for political leaders. | |
| Several scenarios are possible. The PP could form a minority government, particularly since Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera said last week his party would abstain from a vote of confidence in order to allow the party with the most seats to govern. The scenario is a risky one for the PP, as a minority government could fall easily, triggering new elections. | |
| In the lead up to the election, many analysts had predicted that the new government would be made up of the PP in alliance with Ciudadanos. But the two parties together would still fall short of a majority. Any alliance between the two would require a third partner, a scenario that shifts some of the balance of power to regional parties from Catalonia and the Basque country and will be complicated by Ciudadanos vehement opposition to Catalan independence and insistence on eradicating longstanding Basque tax benefits. | |
| A third option, echoing developments in Portugal, would be a coalition of the Socialists, Podemos and Ciudadanos. While Ciudadanos’ leader Rivera has said his party will not support what he called a “grouping of losers,” some analysts saw the possibility of a Socialist government emerging from Sunday’s vote. “Reaching a deal between the Socialists, Ciudadanos and Podemos is not going to be straightforward...but if the alternative is leaving the country’s without a government, the pressure will be on the parties,” Federico Santi, a London-based analyst with the Eurasia Group told the Associated Press. | |
| Some of Sunday’s results can be explained by Spain’s electoral system, which gives more weight to votes from rural areas than urban ones. In Madrid, for example, where Podemos and Ciudadanos enjoy high levels of support, a candidate needs more than 128,000 votes to be elected, while in rural areas where the PP and Socialists traditionally dominate, a candidate could need as little as 38,685 votes, such as the province of Soria in Castilla y León. | |
| The results were likely also influenced by a generational gap. As the clamour for change began in Spain, the median age of the country’s political leaders dropped drastically. The Socialists elected 43-year-old Pedro Sánchez as leader, while Ciudadanos’s turned to Albert Rivera, 36, and Podemos to 37-year-old Pablo Iglesias. | |
| But Rajoy, 60, remains the most popular option with Spaniards over the age of 55, buoyed in part by his party’s consistent support for pensions. Even as his government was slashing spending for public wages, education and research, pensions were raised. Not only is this the demographic that is most likely to vote, it has also grown by more than a million people since the 2011 election, while those under the age of 34 years have dropped by almost a million. | |
| 9.37pm GMT21:37 | 9.37pm GMT21:37 |
| Catalonia is the key. If PSOE/PODEMOS/ERC/CONVERGENCIA find common ground, all is possible. 1st step will be to scapegoat Rajoy for standoff | Catalonia is the key. If PSOE/PODEMOS/ERC/CONVERGENCIA find common ground, all is possible. 1st step will be to scapegoat Rajoy for standoff |
| 9.36pm GMT21:36 | 9.36pm GMT21:36 |
| As alluded to before, while Ciudadanos’ showing may not have lived up to some predictions, its seat count is still impressive. | As alluded to before, while Ciudadanos’ showing may not have lived up to some predictions, its seat count is still impressive. |
| Cs didn't meet pre-vote expectations, but for a party that until recently didn't field candidates nationally, 14% (38 seats) extraordinary | Cs didn't meet pre-vote expectations, but for a party that until recently didn't field candidates nationally, 14% (38 seats) extraordinary |
| 9.33pm GMT21:33 | 9.33pm GMT21:33 |
| Rajoy can’t really govern without socialist support. But a socialist government backed by Podemos and separatists would be unstable. | Rajoy can’t really govern without socialist support. But a socialist government backed by Podemos and separatists would be unstable. |
| 9.33pm GMT21:33 | 9.33pm GMT21:33 |
| A grand pact between Rajoy’s PP and socialists in Spain would likely be suicide for the latter. | A grand pact between Rajoy’s PP and socialists in Spain would likely be suicide for the latter. |
| 9.32pm GMT21:32 | 9.32pm GMT21:32 |
| Can Sanchez (PSOE) and Iglesias (Podemos) hold a government together with various others? If not, early elections likely. | Can Sanchez (PSOE) and Iglesias (Podemos) hold a government together with various others? If not, early elections likely. |
| 9.31pm GMT21:31 | 9.31pm GMT21:31 |
| This tweet from the writer Maxim Huerta sums up a lot of the confusion the results have created: | This tweet from the writer Maxim Huerta sums up a lot of the confusion the results have created: |
| So now we’ve got the longed-for plurality. And now we’re saying it’s complicated. Which one are we going for? | So now we’ve got the longed-for plurality. And now we’re saying it’s complicated. Which one are we going for? |
| Ya tenemos aquí la deseada pluralidad. Y ahora diciendo que es complicada. En qué quedamos. | Ya tenemos aquí la deseada pluralidad. Y ahora diciendo que es complicada. En qué quedamos. |
| 9.27pm GMT21:27 | 9.27pm GMT21:27 |
| Podemos has 69 seats so far; Unidad Popular two. Could things have worked out differently, wonders Giles Tremlett. | Podemos has 69 seats so far; Unidad Popular two. Could things have worked out differently, wonders Giles Tremlett. |
| How many more seats would Podemos and Unidad Popular have won if they had joined forces? My guess is several. The old story of a split left. | How many more seats would Podemos and Unidad Popular have won if they had joined forces? My guess is several. The old story of a split left. |
| 9.16pm GMT21:16 | 9.16pm GMT21:16 |
| OK. With more than 75% of the vote counted, this is the picture: | OK. With more than 75% of the vote counted, this is the picture: |
| Partido Popular: 123 | Partido Popular: 123 |
| PSOE (Socialists): 93 | PSOE (Socialists): 93 |
| Podemos: 68 | Podemos: 68 |
| Ciudadanos: 37 | Ciudadanos: 37 |
| Once again, the overall majority threshold is 176. A bit of mental arithmetic shows just how unpredictable this all could be ... | Once again, the overall majority threshold is 176. A bit of mental arithmetic shows just how unpredictable this all could be ... |
| 9.02pm GMT21:02 | 9.02pm GMT21:02 |
| The journalist Jordi Evolé is wondering what’s been going on with all the talk of the rise of Ciudadanos: | The journalist Jordi Evolé is wondering what’s been going on with all the talk of the rise of Ciudadanos: |
| Why did they big up Ciudadanos so much? Why? They’ve managed to make a good result look really bad. | Why did they big up Ciudadanos so much? Why? They’ve managed to make a good result look really bad. |
| ¿Por qué inflaron tanto a Ciudadanos? ¿Por qué? Han conseguido que sacando un buen resultado parezca muy malo. | ¿Por qué inflaron tanto a Ciudadanos? ¿Por qué? Han conseguido que sacando un buen resultado parezca muy malo. |
| 8.55pm GMT20:55 | 8.55pm GMT20:55 |
| Thanks to all who’ve pointed out the failure to count all the Podemos seats across its different names. With more than 60% of the votes counted, here’s how it’s looking: | Thanks to all who’ve pointed out the failure to count all the Podemos seats across its different names. With more than 60% of the votes counted, here’s how it’s looking: |
| Partido Popular: 124 | Partido Popular: 124 |
| PSOE (Socialists): 95 | PSOE (Socialists): 95 |
| Podemos: 69 | Podemos: 69 |
| Ciudadanos: 33 | Ciudadanos: 33 |
| 8.48pm GMT20:48 | 8.48pm GMT20:48 |
| Updated at 8.50pm GMT | Updated at 8.50pm GMT |
| 8.46pm GMT20:46 | 8.46pm GMT20:46 |
| Spain elections: with 43% of the vote counted, PSOE+Podemos (168) ahead of PP+C’s (153) but both short of a majority (176) #20D | Spain elections: with 43% of the vote counted, PSOE+Podemos (168) ahead of PP+C’s (153) but both short of a majority (176) #20D |
| 8.44pm GMT20:44 | 8.44pm GMT20:44 |
| We’re still a little way of the final count, but some are already picking up a whiff of horse-trading. This from AP: | We’re still a little way of the final count, but some are already picking up a whiff of horse-trading. This from AP: |
| If the projections are confirmed, analysts said it could make it extremely difficult for the Popular Party to form a government because it wouldn’t get a majority of seats in parliament by allying with Ciudadanos, its most natural partner. | If the projections are confirmed, analysts said it could make it extremely difficult for the Popular Party to form a government because it wouldn’t get a majority of seats in parliament by allying with Ciudadanos, its most natural partner. |
| The country’s lower house of parliament has 350 seats and with 28 percent of the vote counted Sunday night, the Popular Party was on track to get 124 seats. The Socialists were headed toward winning 94 seats while the number for Podemos and allies was predicted at 61, with 31 for Ciudadanos. | The country’s lower house of parliament has 350 seats and with 28 percent of the vote counted Sunday night, the Popular Party was on track to get 124 seats. The Socialists were headed toward winning 94 seats while the number for Podemos and allies was predicted at 61, with 31 for Ciudadanos. |
| But the centre-left Socialists could team up with Podemos and Ciudadanos in a three-way “coalition of losers” similar to an outcome that happened in Portugal last month. | But the centre-left Socialists could team up with Podemos and Ciudadanos in a three-way “coalition of losers” similar to an outcome that happened in Portugal last month. |
| “If the current poll predictions are confirmed, then it looks like a Socialist government,” said Federico Santi, a London-based analyst with the Eurasia Group political risk consulting group. | “If the current poll predictions are confirmed, then it looks like a Socialist government,” said Federico Santi, a London-based analyst with the Eurasia Group political risk consulting group. |
| “Reaching a deal between the Socialists, Ciudadanos and Podemos is not going to be straightforward ... but if the alternative is leaving the country without a government, the pressure will be on the parties.” | “Reaching a deal between the Socialists, Ciudadanos and Podemos is not going to be straightforward ... but if the alternative is leaving the country without a government, the pressure will be on the parties.” |
| The Socialists could get more seats in Parliament than Podemos with fewer votes because Spanish election law gives extra weight to rural voters. | The Socialists could get more seats in Parliament than Podemos with fewer votes because Spanish election law gives extra weight to rural voters. |
| 8.37pm GMT20:37 | 8.37pm GMT20:37 |
| Right. Just over 40% of the vote counted and this is how things are looking seat-wise: | Right. Just over 40% of the vote counted and this is how things are looking seat-wise: |
| Partido Popular: 118 | Partido Popular: 118 |
| PSOE (Socialists): 96 | PSOE (Socialists): 96 |
| Podemos: 43 | Podemos: 43 |
| Ciudadanos: 31 | Ciudadanos: 31 |
| (Remember: the threshold for a majority is 176 seats.) | (Remember: the threshold for a majority is 176 seats.) |
| 8.29pm GMT20:29 | 8.29pm GMT20:29 |
| Iñigo Errejón of Podemos is adamant that the results - still coming in - mark a decisive shift in Spanish politics after decades of predictable pendulum swings. | Iñigo Errejón of Podemos is adamant that the results - still coming in - mark a decisive shift in Spanish politics after decades of predictable pendulum swings. |
| Spain has already changed: we’ve done away with two-party politics. | Spain has already changed: we’ve done away with two-party politics. |
| Errejón: "España ya es otra: hemos acabado con el turnismo" #eleccionesA3 https://t.co/rF6nxXvfu1 pic.twitter.com/IXg1D5U2no | Errejón: "España ya es otra: hemos acabado con el turnismo" #eleccionesA3 https://t.co/rF6nxXvfu1 pic.twitter.com/IXg1D5U2no |
| Updated at 9.11pm GMT | Updated at 9.11pm GMT |
| 8.24pm GMT20:24 | 8.24pm GMT20:24 |
| Discuss: | Discuss: |
| No news channel leading with Spanish election. Some times you despair of our myopia. | No news channel leading with Spanish election. Some times you despair of our myopia. |
| 8.22pm GMT20:22 | 8.22pm GMT20:22 |
| With almost 25% of votes counted, the Partido Popular has 125 seats, the Socialists 95, Podemos 39, and Ciudadanos 30 … | With almost 25% of votes counted, the Partido Popular has 125 seats, the Socialists 95, Podemos 39, and Ciudadanos 30 … |
| 8.15pm GMT20:15 | 8.15pm GMT20:15 |
| Let the voxpops commence! | Let the voxpops commence! |
| I asked this man what drove him to come to PP HQ and he said: "I sell flags" pic.twitter.com/2DYh1Wfth6 | I asked this man what drove him to come to PP HQ and he said: "I sell flags" pic.twitter.com/2DYh1Wfth6 |
| 8.13pm GMT20:13 | 8.13pm GMT20:13 |
| The digital news site El Español has a nice graphic of Spain’s political colours tonight. | The digital news site El Español has a nice graphic of Spain’s political colours tonight. |
| Sigue el recuento de votos en nuestra app. Por @martgnz y @lukas_appelhans #MiVotoCuenta https://t.co/iwjugnpXBc pic.twitter.com/97KJ4J9iW5 | Sigue el recuento de votos en nuestra app. Por @martgnz y @lukas_appelhans #MiVotoCuenta https://t.co/iwjugnpXBc pic.twitter.com/97KJ4J9iW5 |
| 8.09pm GMT20:09 | 8.09pm GMT20:09 |
| The results are coming in here on the official election website. So far, about 10% of the vote has been counted. | The results are coming in here on the official election website. So far, about 10% of the vote has been counted. |
| 8.06pm GMT20:06 | 8.06pm GMT20:06 |
| Podemos supporters gathering in Madrid are very happy - not surprising as the exit polls have the new party winning the second largest share of the vote ... | Podemos supporters gathering in Madrid are very happy - not surprising as the exit polls have the new party winning the second largest share of the vote ... |
| Huge cheers among gathering crowd in Madrid that Podemos could be "the 2nd biggest political force in the country" pic.twitter.com/ficaOp4DSu | Huge cheers among gathering crowd in Madrid that Podemos could be "the 2nd biggest political force in the country" pic.twitter.com/ficaOp4DSu |
| 7.59pm GMT19:59 | 7.59pm GMT19:59 |
| TV3 exit poll has Podemos and allies winning in Catalonia (https://t.co/zx5vmrzado): pic.twitter.com/Gq7q2cGhn9 | TV3 exit poll has Podemos and allies winning in Catalonia (https://t.co/zx5vmrzado): pic.twitter.com/Gq7q2cGhn9 |
| 7.51pm GMT19:51 | 7.51pm GMT19:51 |
| More from Alberto Nardelli, our data editor. He says that if the exit polls are correct, the combined share of the vote won by the PP and PSOE result would be at its lowest ever. | More from Alberto Nardelli, our data editor. He says that if the exit polls are correct, the combined share of the vote won by the PP and PSOE result would be at its lowest ever. |
| Spain elections - PP + PSOE: 1989: 65.4% 1993: 73.6% 1996: 76.4% 2000: 78.7% 2004: 80.3% 2008: 83.8% 2011: 73.4% 2015: <50% #20D | Spain elections - PP + PSOE: 1989: 65.4% 1993: 73.6% 1996: 76.4% 2000: 78.7% 2004: 80.3% 2008: 83.8% 2011: 73.4% 2015: <50% #20D |
| Albert adds: | Albert adds: |
| If the results confirm the exit polls, today’s elections will see an end to Spain’s two-party system. The People’s Party and the socialist PSOE historically win a combined 70-80% of the vote. Tonight they’re projected to win less than 50% of the vote share. | If the results confirm the exit polls, today’s elections will see an end to Spain’s two-party system. The People’s Party and the socialist PSOE historically win a combined 70-80% of the vote. Tonight they’re projected to win less than 50% of the vote share. |
| Updated at 7.58pm GMT | Updated at 7.58pm GMT |
| 7.49pm GMT19:49 | 7.49pm GMT19:49 |
| A quick update on the outcry over the interior ministry’s tweet earlier today. | A quick update on the outcry over the interior ministry’s tweet earlier today. |
| The Association for the Recuperation of Historical Memory (ARMH) says it will be complaining to the ministry as it feels the tweet suggested that Franco did not rebel against a democratically elected government - which, of course, he did. | The Association for the Recuperation of Historical Memory (ARMH) says it will be complaining to the ministry as it feels the tweet suggested that Franco did not rebel against a democratically elected government - which, of course, he did. |
| In [the tweet], it was claimed that the first democratic elections in Spain took place in 1977. This is an indirect way of asserting that Franco did not rise up against a democratic government. The first democratic elections were held on 19 November 1933, during which, for the first time, men and women voted according to universal suffrage. The ARMH will be seeking a correction. | In [the tweet], it was claimed that the first democratic elections in Spain took place in 1977. This is an indirect way of asserting that Franco did not rise up against a democratic government. The first democratic elections were held on 19 November 1933, during which, for the first time, men and women voted according to universal suffrage. The ARMH will be seeking a correction. |
| 7.38pm GMT19:38 | 7.38pm GMT19:38 |
| A note of caution - and some rapid analysis - from our Madrid-based contributing editor Giles Tremlett: | A note of caution - and some rapid analysis - from our Madrid-based contributing editor Giles Tremlett: |
| Exit polls at Spanish elections are notoriously unreliable and are even more difficult to interpret when we have two new parties - Podemos and Ciudadanos - competing. That said, the eruption of these insurgents in such a short space of time is remarkable and highlights widespread disgust with the status quo. | Exit polls at Spanish elections are notoriously unreliable and are even more difficult to interpret when we have two new parties - Podemos and Ciudadanos - competing. That said, the eruption of these insurgents in such a short space of time is remarkable and highlights widespread disgust with the status quo. |
| The available polls point to the lack of a full parliamentary majority for either a right-to-centre bloc with Mariano Rajoy’s People’s party and Ciudadanos, or for a left-to-centre bloc with Podemos, Socialists and Popular Unity. | The available polls point to the lack of a full parliamentary majority for either a right-to-centre bloc with Mariano Rajoy’s People’s party and Ciudadanos, or for a left-to-centre bloc with Podemos, Socialists and Popular Unity. |
| Depending on the final arithmetic, the balance of power may end up in the hands of a separatist bloc bringing together up to 20 deputies from parties from Catalonia and the Basque country. That would be truly fascinating, but would make governing Spain even more difficult. Let’s see. | Depending on the final arithmetic, the balance of power may end up in the hands of a separatist bloc bringing together up to 20 deputies from parties from Catalonia and the Basque country. That would be truly fascinating, but would make governing Spain even more difficult. Let’s see. |
| 7.37pm GMT19:37 | 7.37pm GMT19:37 |
| Worth remembering that although Podemos seems to have won a greater share of the vote than the Socialists - 21.7% to 20.5% according to the RTE poll; 21.1% to 20.4% according to Antena 3 - it may not translate into the new party winning more seats because of the way Spanish electoral law works. | Worth remembering that although Podemos seems to have won a greater share of the vote than the Socialists - 21.7% to 20.5% according to the RTE poll; 21.1% to 20.4% according to Antena 3 - it may not translate into the new party winning more seats because of the way Spanish electoral law works. |
| Basically, Podemos appears to have attracted fewer preferences in little-populated areas, where the Socialists look to have done better. | Basically, Podemos appears to have attracted fewer preferences in little-populated areas, where the Socialists look to have done better. |
| 2/ Si hay un empate de votos, PSOE logra más escaños que Podemos por su voto en provincias pequeñas. pic.twitter.com/FMITSOKTa7 | 2/ Si hay un empate de votos, PSOE logra más escaños que Podemos por su voto en provincias pequeñas. pic.twitter.com/FMITSOKTa7 |
| 7.18pm GMT19:18 | 7.18pm GMT19:18 |
| My colleague Alberto Nardelli, the Guardian’s data editor, makes a good point: | My colleague Alberto Nardelli, the Guardian’s data editor, makes a good point: |
| Spain has basically had the election that Britain was expecting in May. #20D | Spain has basically had the election that Britain was expecting in May. #20D |
| 7.17pm GMT19:17 | 7.17pm GMT19:17 |
| Some are pointing out that - if the exit polls are correct - then the lure of Podemos appears to have been significantly underestimated in previous polls, while that of Ciudadanos has been overestimated: | Some are pointing out that - if the exit polls are correct - then the lure of Podemos appears to have been significantly underestimated in previous polls, while that of Ciudadanos has been overestimated: |
| Según sondeos a pie de urna, Podemos estaba infraestimado por las encuestas, Ciudadanos sobreestimado pic.twitter.com/7DBHuV0g6B | Según sondeos a pie de urna, Podemos estaba infraestimado por las encuestas, Ciudadanos sobreestimado pic.twitter.com/7DBHuV0g6B |
| 7.14pm GMT19:14 | 7.14pm GMT19:14 |
| The Spanish TV station Antena 3 is also predicting a win for the Popular party, but, again, without an absolute majority. | The Spanish TV station Antena 3 is also predicting a win for the Popular party, but, again, without an absolute majority. |
| El PP sería el más votado en porcentaje, seguido de Podemos, PSOE y C's https://t.co/VmldK6UiDi #eleccionesA3 pic.twitter.com/qFsuBul1F5 | El PP sería el más votado en porcentaje, seguido de Podemos, PSOE y C's https://t.co/VmldK6UiDi #eleccionesA3 pic.twitter.com/qFsuBul1F5 |
| 7.09pm GMT19:09 | 7.09pm GMT19:09 |
| A poll for RTVE, Spain’s public service broadcaster, gives the Popular party 26.8% of the vote and 114-188 seats, the Socialists 81-85 seats, Podemos 76-80 and Ciudadanos 47-50 seats. | A poll for RTVE, Spain’s public service broadcaster, gives the Popular party 26.8% of the vote and 114-188 seats, the Socialists 81-85 seats, Podemos 76-80 and Ciudadanos 47-50 seats. |
| 7.05pm GMT19:05 | 7.05pm GMT19:05 |
| According to the exit polls, the Popular party would win between 114 and 124 of the 176 seats it would need for an absolute majority. The Socialists would win 79-85 seats, Podemos 70-80 and Ciudadanos 46-40. | According to the exit polls, the Popular party would win between 114 and 124 of the 176 seats it would need for an absolute majority. The Socialists would win 79-85 seats, Podemos 70-80 and Ciudadanos 46-40. |
| 7.03pm GMT19:03 | 7.03pm GMT19:03 |
| Right, so the exit polls are calling a victory for the Popular party - albeit without an absolute majority. The Socialists are forecast to finish second, with Podemos third and Ciudadanos fourth. | Right, so the exit polls are calling a victory for the Popular party - albeit without an absolute majority. The Socialists are forecast to finish second, with Podemos third and Ciudadanos fourth. |
| 7.01pm GMT19:01 | 7.01pm GMT19:01 |
| BREAKING: SPAIN’S RULING CONSERVATIVES WIN GENERAL ELECTION, FALL SHORT OF ABSOLUTE MAJORITY - EXIT POLLS | BREAKING: SPAIN’S RULING CONSERVATIVES WIN GENERAL ELECTION, FALL SHORT OF ABSOLUTE MAJORITY - EXIT POLLS |
| 7.01pm GMT19:01 | 7.01pm GMT19:01 |
| And what of Pablo Iglesias, leader of Podemos (which means We Can)? | And what of Pablo Iglesias, leader of Podemos (which means We Can)? |
| Iglesias, who voted in a working class neighborhood of Madrid, said Spain was “going through a new transition” as Podemos and Ciudadanos seek to take votes away from the nation’s traditional Popular Party and Socialist Party, which have dominated Spanish politics for more than three decades. | Iglesias, who voted in a working class neighborhood of Madrid, said Spain was “going through a new transition” as Podemos and Ciudadanos seek to take votes away from the nation’s traditional Popular Party and Socialist Party, which have dominated Spanish politics for more than three decades. |
| Iglesias said: “After tonight, I am sure the history of our country will change.” | Iglesias said: “After tonight, I am sure the history of our country will change.” |
| 6.58pm GMT18:58 | 6.58pm GMT18:58 |
| The leader of Spain’s new business-friendly Ciudadanos party, Albert Rivera, has said his country is entering into a new era of democracy with a vote likely to end the nation’s decades of two-party political dominance. | The leader of Spain’s new business-friendly Ciudadanos party, Albert Rivera, has said his country is entering into a new era of democracy with a vote likely to end the nation’s decades of two-party political dominance. |
| Casting his vote in a working class suburb of Barcelona, Albert Rivera said he and other young Spaniards who weren’t alive during the nation’s 1939-1975 dictatorship “didn’t experience the first democratic transition [and] are experiencing a second one”. He added: “This is a new era.” | Casting his vote in a working class suburb of Barcelona, Albert Rivera said he and other young Spaniards who weren’t alive during the nation’s 1939-1975 dictatorship “didn’t experience the first democratic transition [and] are experiencing a second one”. He added: “This is a new era.” |
| At the age of 36, Rivera is the youngest candidate among the four main parties vying for power. But without heavy voter turnout, Rivera warned that Spain might not change the way he wants it to. | At the age of 36, Rivera is the youngest candidate among the four main parties vying for power. But without heavy voter turnout, Rivera warned that Spain might not change the way he wants it to. |
| “There have never been changes in Spanish politics when there has been low participation,” he said. (Via AP) | “There have never been changes in Spanish politics when there has been low participation,” he said. (Via AP) |
| Updated at 6.59pm GMT | Updated at 6.59pm GMT |
| 6.56pm GMT18:56 | 6.56pm GMT18:56 |
| The leader of Spain’s main opposition Socialist party expressed hope that his fellow citizens would turn out in droves for a landmark election as he cast his vote in a wealthy Madrid suburb. | The leader of Spain’s main opposition Socialist party expressed hope that his fellow citizens would turn out in droves for a landmark election as he cast his vote in a wealthy Madrid suburb. |
| Pedro Sánchez, who showed up at a polling station in Pozuelo de Alarcón with his wife, said the “best news we can hope for today is that we get a high turnout of voters. Spaniards know that today is a historic day.” | Pedro Sánchez, who showed up at a polling station in Pozuelo de Alarcón with his wife, said the “best news we can hope for today is that we get a high turnout of voters. Spaniards know that today is a historic day.” |
| He added: “The future is not set in stone and we can write it with our vote.” (Via AP) | He added: “The future is not set in stone and we can write it with our vote.” (Via AP) |
| 6.54pm GMT18:54 | 6.54pm GMT18:54 |
| How have the party leaders spent polling day? This from Associated Press (AP): | How have the party leaders spent polling day? This from Associated Press (AP): |
| The Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has voted in a well-heeled Madrid suburb and then headed off for a long lunch with his family. Rajoy said he was confident “people will choose what they think is best for their country” as they decide whether to vote for his right-of-centre Popular Party, the country’s main opposition Socialist Party or two new upstart parties aiming to shake up Spain’s traditional two-party dominance. | The Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has voted in a well-heeled Madrid suburb and then headed off for a long lunch with his family. Rajoy said he was confident “people will choose what they think is best for their country” as they decide whether to vote for his right-of-centre Popular Party, the country’s main opposition Socialist Party or two new upstart parties aiming to shake up Spain’s traditional two-party dominance. |
| Rajoy told reporters who swarmed around him at his polling station in the suburb of Aravaca that he would head in the evening to the Popular Party’s downtown Madrid headquarters to watch the results start coming in. | Rajoy told reporters who swarmed around him at his polling station in the suburb of Aravaca that he would head in the evening to the Popular Party’s downtown Madrid headquarters to watch the results start coming in. |
| 6.51pm GMT18:51 | 6.51pm GMT18:51 |
| The Spanish consulate in London has been busy today. According to this tweet, UK-based Spaniards queued for five hours to vote. | The Spanish consulate in London has been busy today. According to this tweet, UK-based Spaniards queued for five hours to vote. |
| Cinco horas de cola en Consulado de Londres #FaltaMiVoto pic.twitter.com/1R33FisbG2 | Cinco horas de cola en Consulado de Londres #FaltaMiVoto pic.twitter.com/1R33FisbG2 |
| 6.48pm GMT18:48 | 6.48pm GMT18:48 |
| Hats off to the residents of the Riojan hamlet of Villarroya, which once again became the first municipality in the region to close its ballot box - at 9.01 this morning. The impressive feat probably had something to do with the fact that there are just six people on the electoral register. | Hats off to the residents of the Riojan hamlet of Villarroya, which once again became the first municipality in the region to close its ballot box - at 9.01 this morning. The impressive feat probably had something to do with the fact that there are just six people on the electoral register. |
| Still, as the mayor, Salvador Pérez, put it: | Still, as the mayor, Salvador Pérez, put it: |
| We were all down there first thing to exercise our right to vote. | We were all down there first thing to exercise our right to vote. |
| In 2011, Villarroya closed its ballot box at 9.07am. | In 2011, Villarroya closed its ballot box at 9.07am. |
| 6.48pm GMT18:48 | 6.48pm GMT18:48 |
| With the polls due to close in a few minutes, voter turnout looks to be slightly up compared with the last general election in 2011. | With the polls due to close in a few minutes, voter turnout looks to be slightly up compared with the last general election in 2011. |
| The government says turnout as of 6pm (1700 GMT) was 58.4 %; voter participation was 57.7% at the same point last time round. | The government says turnout as of 6pm (1700 GMT) was 58.4 %; voter participation was 57.7% at the same point last time round. |
| 6.48pm GMT18:48 | 6.48pm GMT18:48 |
| With so much at stake, people are being encouraged - on Twitter and elsewhere - to get out and vote. As this tweet says: “All those who are going to be complaining about the election results tomorrow: if you’re not going to vote today, don’t grumble.” | With so much at stake, people are being encouraged - on Twitter and elsewhere - to get out and vote. As this tweet says: “All those who are going to be complaining about the election results tomorrow: if you’re not going to vote today, don’t grumble.” |
| Aquellas personas que mañana tendrán quejas de los resultados de las elecciones, si no vais a votar hoy... No os quejéis #MiVotoCuenta | Aquellas personas que mañana tendrán quejas de los resultados de las elecciones, si no vais a votar hoy... No os quejéis #MiVotoCuenta |
| 6.48pm GMT18:48 | 6.48pm GMT18:48 |
| What exactly is at stake? Who are the parties and what’s on voters’ minds? Here’s a taste of our election guide, courtesy of my colleague Alberto Nardelli. | What exactly is at stake? Who are the parties and what’s on voters’ minds? Here’s a taste of our election guide, courtesy of my colleague Alberto Nardelli. |
| Spain is electing all 350 members of its lower house, the Congress of Deputies, and most of the Senate (208 of 266 seats). | Spain is electing all 350 members of its lower house, the Congress of Deputies, and most of the Senate (208 of 266 seats). |
| Since Spain’s transition to democracy at the end of the 1970s, general elections have been dominated by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE) or the centre-right People’s party (PP) and its earlier incarnations. | Since Spain’s transition to democracy at the end of the 1970s, general elections have been dominated by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE) or the centre-right People’s party (PP) and its earlier incarnations. |
| The only exceptions were the first two votes held after Francisco Franco’s death, in 1977 and 1979. Both saw the now-defunct Union of the Democratic Centre win minority administrations. At the last election, in 2011, the PP won 44.6% of the vote and an outright majority of 186 seats. The PSOE suffered the worst defeat for a sitting government in 30 years, losing nearly 4.5 million voters. | The only exceptions were the first two votes held after Francisco Franco’s death, in 1977 and 1979. Both saw the now-defunct Union of the Democratic Centre win minority administrations. At the last election, in 2011, the PP won 44.6% of the vote and an outright majority of 186 seats. The PSOE suffered the worst defeat for a sitting government in 30 years, losing nearly 4.5 million voters. |
| 6.48pm GMT18:48 | 6.48pm GMT18:48 |
| The big difference this time round, of course, has been the emergence of two new parties who are likely to draw votes from the People’s party and the Socialists. The economic upheaval of recent years has seen the rise of the anti-austerity party Podemos and the centre-right Ciudadanos. As our Madrid correspondent, Ashifa Kassam points out, a lot of political soul-searching is going on: | The big difference this time round, of course, has been the emergence of two new parties who are likely to draw votes from the People’s party and the Socialists. The economic upheaval of recent years has seen the rise of the anti-austerity party Podemos and the centre-right Ciudadanos. As our Madrid correspondent, Ashifa Kassam points out, a lot of political soul-searching is going on: |
| As Spaniards emerge from a debilitating economic crisis and grapple with issues such as double-digit unemployment, cuts to public services and the ongoing exodus of job-seekers from the country, much of the campaign has been focused on the need for political and institutional transformation. | As Spaniards emerge from a debilitating economic crisis and grapple with issues such as double-digit unemployment, cuts to public services and the ongoing exodus of job-seekers from the country, much of the campaign has been focused on the need for political and institutional transformation. |
| ‘I’m convinced that Spaniards will ask for change,’ Ciudadanos’ leader, Albert Rivera, 36, told supporters in Madrid on Friday as the election campaign drew to a close. ‘I’m convinced that these years of weariness, of corruption ... are coming to an end.’ | ‘I’m convinced that Spaniards will ask for change,’ Ciudadanos’ leader, Albert Rivera, 36, told supporters in Madrid on Friday as the election campaign drew to a close. ‘I’m convinced that these years of weariness, of corruption ... are coming to an end.’ |
| In Valencia, Podemos’ Pablo Iglesias urged supporters to channel the hardship of recent years into political change. ‘We’re ready to lead a new transition in this country,’ said the 37-year-old. ‘This is the moment that all the difficulties and obstacles they’ve put in our way start to make sense, because we’ve made it to the end of the campaign with the possibility of winning.’ | In Valencia, Podemos’ Pablo Iglesias urged supporters to channel the hardship of recent years into political change. ‘We’re ready to lead a new transition in this country,’ said the 37-year-old. ‘This is the moment that all the difficulties and obstacles they’ve put in our way start to make sense, because we’ve made it to the end of the campaign with the possibility of winning.’ |
| 6.45pm GMT18:45 | 6.45pm GMT18:45 |
| Spain’s interior ministry is taking a lot of heat for tweeting a picture of the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy of the PP, next to one of Adolfo Suárez, who, in 1977, became Spain’s first democratically elected prime minister following Franco’s death. | Spain’s interior ministry is taking a lot of heat for tweeting a picture of the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy of the PP, next to one of Adolfo Suárez, who, in 1977, became Spain’s first democratically elected prime minister following Franco’s death. |
| The accompanying caption reads: “Thirty-eight years of democratic history have passed between these two pictures.” | The accompanying caption reads: “Thirty-eight years of democratic history have passed between these two pictures.” |
| #EleccionesGenerales2015 Entre estas 2 imágenes han pasado 38 años de historia democrática en España pic.twitter.com/L00D4GCpvP | #EleccionesGenerales2015 Entre estas 2 imágenes han pasado 38 años de historia democrática en España pic.twitter.com/L00D4GCpvP |
| The apparent comparison between the two politicians has not gone unremarked. The tweet, which many are slamming as a piece of propaganda, is being attacked online. El País reports that the Socialists have complained to the central electoral council ... | The apparent comparison between the two politicians has not gone unremarked. The tweet, which many are slamming as a piece of propaganda, is being attacked online. El País reports that the Socialists have complained to the central electoral council ... |
| 6.36pm GMT18:36 | 6.36pm GMT18:36 |
| Good evening and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the Spanish general election. Today’s vote is the most hotly contested and unpredictable that the country has seen since its return to democracy following the Franco era, with the results likely to herald the end of the two-party dominance that has marked Spanish politics since the early 1980s. | Good evening and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the Spanish general election. Today’s vote is the most hotly contested and unpredictable that the country has seen since its return to democracy following the Franco era, with the results likely to herald the end of the two-party dominance that has marked Spanish politics since the early 1980s. |
| The conservative People’s party and the Socialists – both of whom have alternated in power for decades - are expected to lose seats to anti-austerity party Podemos and centre-right Ciudadanos. | The conservative People’s party and the Socialists – both of whom have alternated in power for decades - are expected to lose seats to anti-austerity party Podemos and centre-right Ciudadanos. |
| The polls close at 8pm Spanish time (1900 GMT) and we’re hoping for exit polls swiftly afterwards and a fairly complete picture by about 10.30pm (2130 GMT). Fingers crossed ... | The polls close at 8pm Spanish time (1900 GMT) and we’re hoping for exit polls swiftly afterwards and a fairly complete picture by about 10.30pm (2130 GMT). Fingers crossed ... |