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Innies, outies, unclears: where ministers stand on EU referendum | Innies, outies, unclears: where ministers stand on EU referendum |
(about 2 hours later) | |
Some cabinet ministers have a lot of thinking to do over the Christmas break about how they will campaign in the European Union referendum, which could come as early as this summer after renegotiations conclude in February. | Some cabinet ministers have a lot of thinking to do over the Christmas break about how they will campaign in the European Union referendum, which could come as early as this summer after renegotiations conclude in February. |
Their final decisions will depend on whether David Cameron forces them to back his campaign to remain in the EU, their chances of promotion if they stay loyal to No 10, how the opinion polls are looking and whether they could have a chance of leading the out campaign. | Their final decisions will depend on whether David Cameron forces them to back his campaign to remain in the EU, their chances of promotion if they stay loyal to No 10, how the opinion polls are looking and whether they could have a chance of leading the out campaign. |
Probable ins | Probable ins |
David Cameron The prime minister is all but certain to declare in February that he has won a victory in his attempts to reform the UK’s relationship with the EU and then begin campaigning with the in side after that. Although frustrated with the bureaucracy and inflexibility of Brussels, he is said to regard the EU as a necessary partner. | David Cameron The prime minister is all but certain to declare in February that he has won a victory in his attempts to reform the UK’s relationship with the EU and then begin campaigning with the in side after that. Although frustrated with the bureaucracy and inflexibility of Brussels, he is said to regard the EU as a necessary partner. |
Related: Liam Fox is right to say Cameron should let ministers push for Brexit | Related: Liam Fox is right to say Cameron should let ministers push for Brexit |
George Osborne The chancellor has taken a big personal role in the EU negotiations alongside Cameron and is ideologically as well as practically in the remain camp. | George Osborne The chancellor has taken a big personal role in the EU negotiations alongside Cameron and is ideologically as well as practically in the remain camp. |
Philip Hammond The foreign secretary had a reputation for Euroscepticism, having said he would vote to leave the EU as it stands because the status quo is “simply unacceptable”. But he is viewed by some as having become a pro-EU native in the Foreign Office and some now mischievously refer to him as Euro-Phil. | Philip Hammond The foreign secretary had a reputation for Euroscepticism, having said he would vote to leave the EU as it stands because the status quo is “simply unacceptable”. But he is viewed by some as having become a pro-EU native in the Foreign Office and some now mischievously refer to him as Euro-Phil. |
Jeremy Hunt The health secretary also said he would vote to leave the EU if Cameron did not negotiate to his satisfaction – but he seems a likely candidate to go with Downing Street consensus. | Jeremy Hunt The health secretary also said he would vote to leave the EU if Cameron did not negotiate to his satisfaction – but he seems a likely candidate to go with Downing Street consensus. |
Nicky Morgan The education secretary has said she finds it difficult to imagine voting for the UK to leave the EU. | Nicky Morgan The education secretary has said she finds it difficult to imagine voting for the UK to leave the EU. |
Greg Clark The communities secretary is a quiet loyalist and it is hard to imagine him breaking with the Downing Street line. | Greg Clark The communities secretary is a quiet loyalist and it is hard to imagine him breaking with the Downing Street line. |
Amber Rudd The energy secretary has not been asked in interviews how she would vote, but as an ally of Osborne it seems probable that she would stick to the Downing Street line on remaining in the EU. Her brother Roland, a City PR guru, is heavily involved in the remain camp. | Amber Rudd The energy secretary has not been asked in interviews how she would vote, but as an ally of Osborne it seems probable that she would stick to the Downing Street line on remaining in the EU. Her brother Roland, a City PR guru, is heavily involved in the remain camp. |
Patrick McLoughlin The transport secretary has said there are frustrations about Europe but it does not affect him too much in his job, which are not the words of a Eurosceptic. In October, he urged the government and media do more to make the positive case for EU membership rather than “always looking on the negative side”. | Patrick McLoughlin The transport secretary has said there are frustrations about Europe but it does not affect him too much in his job, which are not the words of a Eurosceptic. In October, he urged the government and media do more to make the positive case for EU membership rather than “always looking on the negative side”. |
David Mundell The Scottish secretary has argued that Scotland benefits from the terms of Britain’s EU membership, and will be aware of the dangers for the union if the UK votes to leave. | David Mundell The Scottish secretary has argued that Scotland benefits from the terms of Britain’s EU membership, and will be aware of the dangers for the union if the UK votes to leave. |
Stephen Crabb The Welsh secretary has said that Welsh businesses are “huge winners” from EU membership and seems likely to be on the side of staying in the EU after the renegotiation. | Stephen Crabb The Welsh secretary has said that Welsh businesses are “huge winners” from EU membership and seems likely to be on the side of staying in the EU after the renegotiation. |
Probable outs | Probable outs |
Iain Duncan Smith The work and pensions secretary is probably the most likely cabinet ministers to campaign for an exit and could end up resigning over the issue. A committed Eurosceptic, he was one of the original Maastricht rebels. | Iain Duncan Smith The work and pensions secretary is probably the most likely cabinet ministers to campaign for an exit and could end up resigning over the issue. A committed Eurosceptic, he was one of the original Maastricht rebels. |
Related: Cameron will be 'laughing stock' if he allows EU free vote, Heseltine warns | Related: Cameron will be 'laughing stock' if he allows EU free vote, Heseltine warns |
Chris Grayling The leader of the House is another long-term Eurosceptic who has said leaving the EU is not a frightening prospect. He has already been moved to a lesser cabinet role from his previous job as justice secretary, making it less damaging for Cameron to lose him if he has to resign to campaign for the out camp. | |
Theresa Villiers The Northern Ireland secretary is one of the most Eurosceptic members of the cabinet. Having represented London for six years as a Eurosceptic MEP, she is unlikely to want to pass up the chance to campaign for a British exit. | Theresa Villiers The Northern Ireland secretary is one of the most Eurosceptic members of the cabinet. Having represented London for six years as a Eurosceptic MEP, she is unlikely to want to pass up the chance to campaign for a British exit. |
Not clear | Not clear |
Theresa May The home secretary has sometimes struck a Eurosceptic tone, such as in her conference speech talking of the difficulties of reducing immigration from inside the EU. But she has also infuriated the out camp by arguing it is necessary to remain in the European arrest warrant scheme. While her views are unclear, she recently refused to rule out campaigning for an exit and could do so if she feels the wind blowing that way and that it could bolster any leadership ambitions. | Theresa May The home secretary has sometimes struck a Eurosceptic tone, such as in her conference speech talking of the difficulties of reducing immigration from inside the EU. But she has also infuriated the out camp by arguing it is necessary to remain in the European arrest warrant scheme. While her views are unclear, she recently refused to rule out campaigning for an exit and could do so if she feels the wind blowing that way and that it could bolster any leadership ambitions. |
Michael Gove The justice secretary has strong Eurosceptic tendencies, having said in 2013 that he would vote to leave if there were no fundamental changes to the EU. But he is probably likely to fall behind his allies Cameron and Osborne when it comes to it and could prove useful to the in campaigners as a reluctant, sceptical advocate for remaining. | Michael Gove The justice secretary has strong Eurosceptic tendencies, having said in 2013 that he would vote to leave if there were no fundamental changes to the EU. But he is probably likely to fall behind his allies Cameron and Osborne when it comes to it and could prove useful to the in campaigners as a reluctant, sceptical advocate for remaining. |
Oliver Letwin The chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has said he is prepared to vote to leave the EU, but there is probably an 80/20 chance that the renegotiations will succeed and satisfy him. He would like to see the UK take an “outer rim” position within the bloc. | Oliver Letwin The chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has said he is prepared to vote to leave the EU, but there is probably an 80/20 chance that the renegotiations will succeed and satisfy him. He would like to see the UK take an “outer rim” position within the bloc. |
John Whittingdale The culture secretary is an old-time Eurosceptic but it is yet to be seen whether he will give up his big cabinet job after being appointed just eight months ago. | John Whittingdale The culture secretary is an old-time Eurosceptic but it is yet to be seen whether he will give up his big cabinet job after being appointed just eight months ago. |
Michael Fallon The defence secretary said last year that the whole cabinet was Eurosceptic. But his reputation as a very trusted lieutenant of Cameron and possibly some ambitions for a bigger job could mean he keeps quiet and toes the party line. | Michael Fallon The defence secretary said last year that the whole cabinet was Eurosceptic. But his reputation as a very trusted lieutenant of Cameron and possibly some ambitions for a bigger job could mean he keeps quiet and toes the party line. |
Sajid Javid The business secretary has been striking a very Eurosceptic note of late, refusing to rule out campaigning to leave, berating the CBI for being too pro-EU, saying he would not shed a tear if the UK left and telling the in campaign that the costs of staying in the EU currently outweigh the benefits. However, it remains to be seen whether he would want to harm his chances of a big job under his mentor Osborne by throwing his towel in with the outters. | Sajid Javid The business secretary has been striking a very Eurosceptic note of late, refusing to rule out campaigning to leave, berating the CBI for being too pro-EU, saying he would not shed a tear if the UK left and telling the in campaign that the costs of staying in the EU currently outweigh the benefits. However, it remains to be seen whether he would want to harm his chances of a big job under his mentor Osborne by throwing his towel in with the outters. |
Liz Truss The environment secretary has described herself as a Eurosceptic and has been targeted by the out campaign as a possible supporter. She is considered a loyalist and very ambitious but it is not inconceivable she could seize the chance to become a prominent outter. | Liz Truss The environment secretary has described herself as a Eurosceptic and has been targeted by the out campaign as a possible supporter. She is considered a loyalist and very ambitious but it is not inconceivable she could seize the chance to become a prominent outter. |
Justine Greening The development secretary has been named as a definite or probable outter but has not spoken much about the issue in recent years. | Justine Greening The development secretary has been named as a definite or probable outter but has not spoken much about the issue in recent years. |
Boris Johnson The London mayor is not a minister but he sits in Cameron’s political cabinet. He is thought to be an instinctive in campaigner, but has flirted heavily with Euroscepticism in recent months and could make the leap to lead the out camp if he thought it had a chance of winning. To lead a victorious leave campaign would bolster his prime ministerial ambitions. | Boris Johnson The London mayor is not a minister but he sits in Cameron’s political cabinet. He is thought to be an instinctive in campaigner, but has flirted heavily with Euroscepticism in recent months and could make the leap to lead the out camp if he thought it had a chance of winning. To lead a victorious leave campaign would bolster his prime ministerial ambitions. |