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| Oil price rebounds in pre-Christmas rally - business live | Oil price rebounds in pre-Christmas rally - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.17am GMT10:17 | |
| And lo, there appeared some economic news.... | |
| The number of UK mortgages approved in November has jumped by a fifth year-on-year, to 44,960. | |
| That’s a slight slowdown on October’s 45,463, but suggests demand for housing remains robust. | |
| Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says there’s no sign of the mortgage market slowing down: | |
| It’s been a busy year for many brokers as borrowers take advantage of exceptionally low mortgage rates and seek guidance through the more complicated application process created by the Mortgage Market Review. | |
| ‘Remortgaging numbers in particular are rising, as borrowers wonder whether 2016 will finally bring that first interest rate rise for several years. While we are not convinced it will, those who would struggle to pay their mortgage if rates rise should consider a fixed rate. There are still some excellent deals to tempt borrowers although we may have seen the back of the very cheapest products. | |
| 10.05am GMT10:05 | |
| Despite today’s rally, Brent crude is still almost 50% lower than in May when it traded hands at $69 per barrel. | |
| For all the talk of an oil price bounce Brent Crude Oil is still only US $37.50! Who thought that a year ago? #DISINFLATION | |
| 9.45am GMT09:45 | 9.45am GMT09:45 |
| This chart, via CMC’s Jasper Lawler, shows how the amount of oil in storage climbed this year, forcing producers to cut the number of rigs in use: | This chart, via CMC’s Jasper Lawler, shows how the amount of oil in storage climbed this year, forcing producers to cut the number of rigs in use: |
| It all started 13 months ago, when the Opec cartel decided to leave production levels unchanged in an apparent attempt to drive rivals out of business. | It all started 13 months ago, when the Opec cartel decided to leave production levels unchanged in an apparent attempt to drive rivals out of business. |
| As Jasper points out, this cunning wheeze hasn’t really worked yet: | As Jasper points out, this cunning wheeze hasn’t really worked yet: |
| OPEC’s wily plan to keep supplying the market with oil, drive prices to a level that will bankrupt the competition, which will in turn reduce output and lead to price recovery is taking a little longer than first imagined. | OPEC’s wily plan to keep supplying the market with oil, drive prices to a level that will bankrupt the competition, which will in turn reduce output and lead to price recovery is taking a little longer than first imagined. |
| Just like its meeting over a year ago, the latest meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Counties (OPEC) in December sent the oil price to new multi-year lows. This time OPEC failed to even agree on a quota. An apparent row between Saudi Arabia and Iran has led to the removal of any kind of production ceiling, which previously stood at 30m bpd. | Just like its meeting over a year ago, the latest meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Counties (OPEC) in December sent the oil price to new multi-year lows. This time OPEC failed to even agree on a quota. An apparent row between Saudi Arabia and Iran has led to the removal of any kind of production ceiling, which previously stood at 30m bpd. |
| So at least until the next OPEC meeting in the summer, oil prices must reflect no production ceiling. Oil plummeted 40% after OPEC’s decision in November 2014; an equivalent percentage plunge from the time of the December 2015 meeting would take it to around $25 per barrel. | So at least until the next OPEC meeting in the summer, oil prices must reflect no production ceiling. Oil plummeted 40% after OPEC’s decision in November 2014; an equivalent percentage plunge from the time of the December 2015 meeting would take it to around $25 per barrel. |
| 9.36am GMT09:36 | 9.36am GMT09:36 |
| The Russian government will be pleased to see the oil price rallying this morning, given its reliance on crude exports. | The Russian government will be pleased to see the oil price rallying this morning, given its reliance on crude exports. |
| The Russian currency has now dipped below 70 rubles to the US dollar, having hit a record low of 71.17 earlier this week. | The Russian currency has now dipped below 70 rubles to the US dollar, having hit a record low of 71.17 earlier this week. |
| As this chart shows, the ruble has been through a torrid year, matching the slumping in the oil price: | As this chart shows, the ruble has been through a torrid year, matching the slumping in the oil price: |
| Russia’s latest budget is based on an oil price of $50 per barrel, which looks rather optimistic given the current prices. | Russia’s latest budget is based on an oil price of $50 per barrel, which looks rather optimistic given the current prices. |
| Analysts believe Moscow can cope, unless the rouble weakens by another third or so.... | Analysts believe Moscow can cope, unless the rouble weakens by another third or so.... |
| Sergey Narkevich, an analyst at Promsvyazbank PJSC in Moscow, told Bloomberg that: | Sergey Narkevich, an analyst at Promsvyazbank PJSC in Moscow, told Bloomberg that: |
| “It would take more than 90 rubles per dollar to provoke significant repercussions.” | “It would take more than 90 rubles per dollar to provoke significant repercussions.” |
| Russia "risks meltdown" if ruble weakens past 90 to the dollar https://t.co/MBeI06GHfm pic.twitter.com/pdfn6QrK0w | Russia "risks meltdown" if ruble weakens past 90 to the dollar https://t.co/MBeI06GHfm pic.twitter.com/pdfn6QrK0w |
| Updated at 9.57am GMT | Updated at 9.57am GMT |
| 9.13am GMT09:13 | 9.13am GMT09:13 |
| Shares in UK retailers are mainly down this morning, reflecting concerns that the festive period may not have been as merry as they’d like. | Shares in UK retailers are mainly down this morning, reflecting concerns that the festive period may not have been as merry as they’d like. |
| Kingfisher, the parent company of Argos and Homebase, was leading the FTSE 100 fallers in early trading, down 1.3%. Tesco has lost 1%. | Kingfisher, the parent company of Argos and Homebase, was leading the FTSE 100 fallers in early trading, down 1.3%. Tesco has lost 1%. |
| And in the FTSE 250 index of smaller companies, online retailer AO World are down 2%, followed by fashion chain Ted Baker (-1.4%) and cars-to-bikes firm Halfords (-1.4%). | And in the FTSE 250 index of smaller companies, online retailer AO World are down 2%, followed by fashion chain Ted Baker (-1.4%) and cars-to-bikes firm Halfords (-1.4%). |
| The retail sector was rocked by yesterday’s profits warning from Game Digital. Its shares are down 4% today, having slumped by 40% on Wednesday after it admitted that demand for new console games was disappointing. | The retail sector was rocked by yesterday’s profits warning from Game Digital. Its shares are down 4% today, having slumped by 40% on Wednesday after it admitted that demand for new console games was disappointing. |
| Retailers will now be hoping that the prospect of bargains will get people shopping. | Retailers will now be hoping that the prospect of bargains will get people shopping. |
| As analyst Nick Bubb says: | As analyst Nick Bubb says: |
| Apart from the wild-eyed men traditionally spotted in the perfume halls of the big department stores today, few people will need to pay full price for anything in the shops today and Online shoppers will be able to get stuck into the John Lewis Clearance Sale from 5pm onwards... | Apart from the wild-eyed men traditionally spotted in the perfume halls of the big department stores today, few people will need to pay full price for anything in the shops today and Online shoppers will be able to get stuck into the John Lewis Clearance Sale from 5pm onwards... |
| Updated at 9.14am GMT | Updated at 9.14am GMT |
| 8.40am GMT08:40 | 8.40am GMT08:40 |
| Oil shares rise in London | Oil shares rise in London |
| Europe’s stock markets have opened rather cautiously today. | Europe’s stock markets have opened rather cautiously today. |
| After surging by more than 150 points on Wednesday, Britain’s FTSE 100 has gained an extra 12 points at the open to 6253, a rise of 0.2% | After surging by more than 150 points on Wednesday, Britain’s FTSE 100 has gained an extra 12 points at the open to 6253, a rise of 0.2% |
| Oil companies are among the risers, with BP and Royal Dutch Shell both up around 1%. | Oil companies are among the risers, with BP and Royal Dutch Shell both up around 1%. |
| The French stock market has dipped by 0.2%, on what already feels like a quiet trading session. | The French stock market has dipped by 0.2%, on what already feels like a quiet trading session. |
| Tony Cross, market analyst at Trustnet Direct, reckons that “pre-Christmas party fatigue” is kicking in.... | Tony Cross, market analyst at Trustnet Direct, reckons that “pre-Christmas party fatigue” is kicking in.... |
| Volumes are expected to be thin over the next few hours, whilst data that might actually deliver any meaningful direction is also going to be hard to come by. | Volumes are expected to be thin over the next few hours, whilst data that might actually deliver any meaningful direction is also going to be hard to come by. |
| 8.34am GMT08:34 | 8.34am GMT08:34 |
| A mince pie for Augustin Eden of Accendo Markets, who says that traders are “getting into the petroleum spirit of Christmas” today as they push oil higher. | A mince pie for Augustin Eden of Accendo Markets, who says that traders are “getting into the petroleum spirit of Christmas” today as they push oil higher. |
| 8.26am GMT08:26 | 8.26am GMT08:26 |
| The rising oil price has helped push shares higher in Australia, where the stock market enjoyed a pre-Christmas bounce. | The rising oil price has helped push shares higher in Australia, where the stock market enjoyed a pre-Christmas bounce. |
| The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped by 1.2%, its seventh consecutive day of gains. | The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped by 1.2%, its seventh consecutive day of gains. |
| Energy shares led the rally, on relief that oil prices were bouncing back from their 11-year lows: | Energy shares led the rally, on relief that oil prices were bouncing back from their 11-year lows: |
| 8.18am GMT08:18 | 8.18am GMT08:18 |
| The oil price is also benefitting from the news that US oil drillers reined in production last week. | The oil price is also benefitting from the news that US oil drillers reined in production last week. |
| There were just 538 oil rigs in active service this week, three fewer than the previous week, according to the latest Baker Hughes rig count. | There were just 538 oil rigs in active service this week, three fewer than the previous week, according to the latest Baker Hughes rig count. |
| A year ago, there were 961 - before the slump in oil prices forced many producers to cut back. | A year ago, there were 961 - before the slump in oil prices forced many producers to cut back. |
| Analysts at Goldman Sachs predicts that output will fall in 2016: | Analysts at Goldman Sachs predicts that output will fall in 2016: |
| The current rig count is... pointing to U.S. production declining sequentially between 2Q15 and 4Q15 by 320,000 barrels per day.” | The current rig count is... pointing to U.S. production declining sequentially between 2Q15 and 4Q15 by 320,000 barrels per day.” |
| Updated at 8.19am GMT | Updated at 8.19am GMT |
| 8.02am GMT08:02 | 8.02am GMT08:02 |
| Oil price jumps in pre-Christmas rally | Oil price jumps in pre-Christmas rally |
| After hitting eleven-year lows this week, the oil price is staging a rally this morning. | After hitting eleven-year lows this week, the oil price is staging a rally this morning. |
| Crude prices are up in early trading, after new data showed fewer barrels are sitting in storage than expected. | Crude prices are up in early trading, after new data showed fewer barrels are sitting in storage than expected. |
| Brent crude is leading the charge - a barrel of North Sea oil has jumped by 1.1%, or 44 cents, to $37.87. | Brent crude is leading the charge - a barrel of North Sea oil has jumped by 1.1%, or 44 cents, to $37.87. |
| US crude is up almost 1% at $37.83. | US crude is up almost 1% at $37.83. |
| Angus Nicholson of IG says: | Angus Nicholson of IG says: |
| Judging by the moves in oil overnight, one could be forgiven for thinking that Santa’s sleigh runs on Light-Sweet Cushing, Oklahoma Crude. | Judging by the moves in oil overnight, one could be forgiven for thinking that Santa’s sleigh runs on Light-Sweet Cushing, Oklahoma Crude. |
| But that’s not the real reason, kids. | But that’s not the real reason, kids. |
| Instead the rally has been sparked by America’s Energy Information Administration, which reported yesterday that oil inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels last week. | Instead the rally has been sparked by America’s Energy Information Administration, which reported yesterday that oil inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels last week. |
| The market had expected a rise of 1.1 million, so investors are revising their concerns about oversupply problems. | The market had expected a rise of 1.1 million, so investors are revising their concerns about oversupply problems. |
| But there are still 484.78 million barrels in storage, according to the EIA, which is nearly a record high.... | But there are still 484.78 million barrels in storage, according to the EIA, which is nearly a record high.... |
| Updated at 8.18am GMT | Updated at 8.18am GMT |
| 7.48am GMT07:48 | 7.48am GMT07:48 |
| Introduction: It's starting to look a lot like..... | Introduction: It's starting to look a lot like..... |
| Good morning, and a Merry Christmas to you. | Good morning, and a Merry Christmas to you. |
| After a dramatic year, we’ve finally reached the last trading day before the festive break. | After a dramatic year, we’ve finally reached the last trading day before the festive break. |
| Some hardy traders are heading to their desks in the City, where the stock market will shut down at lunchtime. | Some hardy traders are heading to their desks in the City, where the stock market will shut down at lunchtime. |
| But there may be more drama on the high streets, with retailers expecting plenty of shoppers ahead of tomorrow’s festivities. They’ll also be catching their breath after Wednesday -- which was the busiest shopping day of the year: | But there may be more drama on the high streets, with retailers expecting plenty of shoppers ahead of tomorrow’s festivities. They’ll also be catching their breath after Wednesday -- which was the busiest shopping day of the year: |
| Related: Elves and shelves: how Tesco copes on the year's busiest food shopping day | Related: Elves and shelves: how Tesco copes on the year's busiest food shopping day |
| Last night, European markets staged a strong rally - with the FTSE 100 surging by 2.6%. | Last night, European markets staged a strong rally - with the FTSE 100 surging by 2.6%. |
| Today will probably be quieter, with shares likely to be little changed in London, Paris and Madrid. It’s going to be particularly quiet in Frankfurt or Milan too; the German and Italian markets are closed. | Today will probably be quieter, with shares likely to be little changed in London, Paris and Madrid. It’s going to be particularly quiet in Frankfurt or Milan too; the German and Italian markets are closed. |
| Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6240 down 1 $DAX Closed $CAC 4678 up 3 $IBEX 9657 up 16 $MIB Closed | Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6240 down 1 $DAX Closed $CAC 4678 up 3 $IBEX 9657 up 16 $MIB Closed |
| CMC Markets’ Michael Hewson predicts.... | CMC Markets’ Michael Hewson predicts.... |
| ....a fairly lacklustre start to today’s holiday shortened European session, while on the data front it is expected to be a fairly light day. | ....a fairly lacklustre start to today’s holiday shortened European session, while on the data front it is expected to be a fairly light day. |
| But we can’t rule out some last minute ructions in the markets. | But we can’t rule out some last minute ructions in the markets. |
| I’ll be tracking all the main events through the morning (and trying not to fret about finding a last-minute gift for Mrs W....) | I’ll be tracking all the main events through the morning (and trying not to fret about finding a last-minute gift for Mrs W....) |
| Updated at 7.53am GMT | Updated at 7.53am GMT |