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| FTSE climbs as oil price stabilises - business live | FTSE climbs as oil price stabilises - business live |
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| 1.23pm GMT13:23 | |
| More pressure on Britain’s big supermarkets | |
| The focus will be firmly on retailers’ shares in coming days as the trading updates from the crucial Christmas season roll in. | |
| We already know Britain’s supermarkets have been struggling as shopping habits change and as discounters like Lidl and Aldi take market share and intensify a fierce price war. Now Amazon is preparing to crank up the pressure on grocers by dramatically expanding the range of food products it sells. | |
| My colleague Graham Ruddick has been talking to Christopher North, UK boss of the online retailer. North says Amazon plans to expand its Pantry service rapidly in the new year. | |
| Here’s the full story: | |
| Related: Amazon UK to expand grocery range as supermarkets look on warily | |
| 12.56pm GMT12:56 | 12.56pm GMT12:56 |
| Markets edge up, Wall St looks to open higher | Markets edge up, Wall St looks to open higher |
| On Wall Street the US futures market is pointing to a higher open, helped by a modest rise in oil prices, traders say. | On Wall Street the US futures market is pointing to a higher open, helped by a modest rise in oil prices, traders say. |
| In the UK, the FTSE 100 is up 0.4%, or 24 points, at 6278. Housebuilders are among the biggest risers while the miners again feature among the biggest fallers as aluminium and copper prices head lower. | In the UK, the FTSE 100 is up 0.4%, or 24 points, at 6278. Housebuilders are among the biggest risers while the miners again feature among the biggest fallers as aluminium and copper prices head lower. |
| Connor Campbell, analyst at spread betting company Spreadex highlights that the FTSE is underperforming its European peers: | Connor Campbell, analyst at spread betting company Spreadex highlights that the FTSE is underperforming its European peers: |
| “Whilst thin(ish) trading volumes appear to be enhancing whatever nascent positive sentiment there is in the eurozone, allowing the DAX and CAC to stretch out their legs to hit fresh 20-day highs, the FTSE hasn’t been so lucky this Tuesday morning. | “Whilst thin(ish) trading volumes appear to be enhancing whatever nascent positive sentiment there is in the eurozone, allowing the DAX and CAC to stretch out their legs to hit fresh 20-day highs, the FTSE hasn’t been so lucky this Tuesday morning. |
| “Despite a strong set of housing stocks (Persimmon and Berkeley Group leading the charge), lifted by both news of record high UK prices and the potential windfall from the cost of rebuilding and repairing the numerous homes damaged in the northern floods, and a stable oil price, the UK index is struggling to match its Eurozone peers, hampered by a still grumpy mining sector. There are no real signs that the latter issue could turn around this afternoon... As ever those same commodity stocks that have plagued the FTSE throughout 2015 are trying to ensure it ends the year not with a bang but a whimper.” | “Despite a strong set of housing stocks (Persimmon and Berkeley Group leading the charge), lifted by both news of record high UK prices and the potential windfall from the cost of rebuilding and repairing the numerous homes damaged in the northern floods, and a stable oil price, the UK index is struggling to match its Eurozone peers, hampered by a still grumpy mining sector. There are no real signs that the latter issue could turn around this afternoon... As ever those same commodity stocks that have plagued the FTSE throughout 2015 are trying to ensure it ends the year not with a bang but a whimper.” |
| 12.20pm GMT12:20 | 12.20pm GMT12:20 |
| Saudi stocks hit after oil plunge swells deficit | Saudi stocks hit after oil plunge swells deficit |
| The plunge in oil prices this year has taken its toll on Saudi Arabia’s state coffers and today the fallout is being fell in its stock market. | The plunge in oil prices this year has taken its toll on Saudi Arabia’s state coffers and today the fallout is being fell in its stock market. |
| Late on Monday, Saudi Arabia announced plans to cut government spending and reform its finances after the drop in oil prices resulted in a record annual budget deficit of nearly $98bn (£66bn). | Late on Monday, Saudi Arabia announced plans to cut government spending and reform its finances after the drop in oil prices resulted in a record annual budget deficit of nearly $98bn (£66bn). |
| The the world’s top crude exporter ran a deficit of 367bn riyals ($97.9bn) in 2015, or 15% of gross domestic product, officials said. | The the world’s top crude exporter ran a deficit of 367bn riyals ($97.9bn) in 2015, or 15% of gross domestic product, officials said. |
| Today, the Saudi stock index dropped 3% in early trading and is currently down around 1.5% as traders digest the prospect of spending cuts and tax rises in the biggest shake-up to economic policy there for more than a decade. The finance ministry is also changing subsidies for water, electricity and petroleum products over the next five years. | Today, the Saudi stock index dropped 3% in early trading and is currently down around 1.5% as traders digest the prospect of spending cuts and tax rises in the biggest shake-up to economic policy there for more than a decade. The finance ministry is also changing subsidies for water, electricity and petroleum products over the next five years. |
| Saudi Arabia’s stock index: | Saudi Arabia’s stock index: |
| Brent crude is still just about eking out some gains today after Monday’s sell-off. It is currently up around 0.3% or 0.1 cents to $36.7 per barrel. It is not far off an 11-year low of $35.98 hit last week. | Brent crude is still just about eking out some gains today after Monday’s sell-off. It is currently up around 0.3% or 0.1 cents to $36.7 per barrel. It is not far off an 11-year low of $35.98 hit last week. |
| There are signs that the global glut of oil will deepen in 2016 as a market already awash with oil from the two biggest suppliers – Saudi Arabia and Russia – receives additional supply from the lifting of sanctions against Iran and the ending of a 40-year US export ban. | There are signs that the global glut of oil will deepen in 2016 as a market already awash with oil from the two biggest suppliers – Saudi Arabia and Russia – receives additional supply from the lifting of sanctions against Iran and the ending of a 40-year US export ban. |
| 11.41am GMT11:41 | 11.41am GMT11:41 |
| Time for a quiz? | Time for a quiz? |
| Trading volumes are particularly thin on European markets today and it seems many (sensible) people have taken a few days off between Christmas and the New Year. For those who are in the office today, dare we suggest the holiday lull might offer a chance to take an end of year quiz or two while you tuck into your turkey sandwiches. | Trading volumes are particularly thin on European markets today and it seems many (sensible) people have taken a few days off between Christmas and the New Year. For those who are in the office today, dare we suggest the holiday lull might offer a chance to take an end of year quiz or two while you tuck into your turkey sandwiches. |
| We’ll keep it strictly business-related: | We’ll keep it strictly business-related: |
| There is, of course, our own very broad business quiz covering (almost) everything from Cadbury’s Fruit and Nut bars to Libor-rigging and Greece’s brush with Grexit: | There is, of course, our own very broad business quiz covering (almost) everything from Cadbury’s Fruit and Nut bars to Libor-rigging and Greece’s brush with Grexit: |
| Related: The bumper business Christmas Quiz 2015 | Related: The bumper business Christmas Quiz 2015 |
| If central banks are your thing, this is from Bank Underground, a blog for Bank of England staff: | If central banks are your thing, this is from Bank Underground, a blog for Bank of England staff: |
| As #BankUnderground closes for the festive season, try our Christmas Quiz! https://t.co/oJAEiXi1wx | As #BankUnderground closes for the festive season, try our Christmas Quiz! https://t.co/oJAEiXi1wx |
| Deloitte’s chief economist, Ian Stewart, set the quiz for newspaper City AM. The questions are notably offbeat, including one on the world’s “most sleep-friendly airport”: | Deloitte’s chief economist, Ian Stewart, set the quiz for newspaper City AM. The questions are notably offbeat, including one on the world’s “most sleep-friendly airport”: |
| Quiz of the Year: How well do you remember 2015? https://t.co/W4rhDJSJZS pic.twitter.com/94pnYFrVJa | Quiz of the Year: How well do you remember 2015? https://t.co/W4rhDJSJZS pic.twitter.com/94pnYFrVJa |
| The BBC’s business team has put together these 10 questions, including some typically flowery Yanis Varoufakis quotes: | The BBC’s business team has put together these 10 questions, including some typically flowery Yanis Varoufakis quotes: |
| Business quiz of the year https://t.co/SFG9lKS8SH | Business quiz of the year https://t.co/SFG9lKS8SH |
| 11.09am GMT11:09 | 11.09am GMT11:09 |
| New floods threaten the UK with Storm Frank on the way and as we reported earlier, estimates of the costs so far are already in the billions. | New floods threaten the UK with Storm Frank on the way and as we reported earlier, estimates of the costs so far are already in the billions. |
| For live coverage of the flooding and its fallout, you can follow our blog here: | For live coverage of the flooding and its fallout, you can follow our blog here: |
| Related: Storm Frank: more gales and downpours forecast as new floods threaten - live coverage | Related: Storm Frank: more gales and downpours forecast as new floods threaten - live coverage |
| While accountants have sought to put a figure on the cost of damage so far, economists note that counting up the economic impact overall is a very tricky task. | While accountants have sought to put a figure on the cost of damage so far, economists note that counting up the economic impact overall is a very tricky task. |
| Howard Archer, economist at the consultancy IHS Global Insight, sends through these comments explaining that damage from extreme weather can dent some spending in the short term but then boost other areas of spending, notably repair work, further out: | Howard Archer, economist at the consultancy IHS Global Insight, sends through these comments explaining that damage from extreme weather can dent some spending in the short term but then boost other areas of spending, notably repair work, further out: |
| https://twitter.com/HowardArcherUK/status/681082677676621824 | https://twitter.com/HowardArcherUK/status/681082677676621824 |
| “In purely economic/GDP costs, the net overall impact of the floods will be limited. There will be some near-term hit to the economy (but even this will be relatively limited given the overall size of the economy) but this will be offset by some gains further out). But this will not tell the whole story by a long way – especially for the poor individual people and businesses that are affected. | “In purely economic/GDP costs, the net overall impact of the floods will be limited. There will be some near-term hit to the economy (but even this will be relatively limited given the overall size of the economy) but this will be offset by some gains further out). But this will not tell the whole story by a long way – especially for the poor individual people and businesses that are affected. |
| “Looking at the extent of the flooding, it could well shave 0.2-0.25 percentage point off GDP growth in the near term. As the flooding is occurring late on in the fourth quarter, some of this negative impact is likely to occur in the first quarter of 2016. | “Looking at the extent of the flooding, it could well shave 0.2-0.25 percentage point off GDP growth in the near term. As the flooding is occurring late on in the fourth quarter, some of this negative impact is likely to occur in the first quarter of 2016. |
| “This is the consequence of businesses not being able to open, loss of agricultural output, people not being able to get to the shops, travel etc. There is also the cost to insurance companies. There is also the loss of work from those people not actually able to get to work. | “This is the consequence of businesses not being able to open, loss of agricultural output, people not being able to get to the shops, travel etc. There is also the cost to insurance companies. There is also the loss of work from those people not actually able to get to work. |
| “However, damage to personal property does not affect GDP growth, although it is obviously a disaster for the poor people involved. And GDP measures do not capture the stress that the people/businesses affected incur. | “However, damage to personal property does not affect GDP growth, although it is obviously a disaster for the poor people involved. And GDP measures do not capture the stress that the people/businesses affected incur. |
| “Further out there will be some boost to GDP growth through the construction work that will be generated by major repair work to buildings and infrastructure and replacement buildings. There will also be a positive impact to growth coming from the replacement purchases of furnishings, household goods etc lost or damaged during the flooding. | “Further out there will be some boost to GDP growth through the construction work that will be generated by major repair work to buildings and infrastructure and replacement buildings. There will also be a positive impact to growth coming from the replacement purchases of furnishings, household goods etc lost or damaged during the flooding. |
| “The boost to growth from the construction work and replacement purchases will be spread out, but some will likely start occurring in the first quarter of 2016 which will at least partly offset the hit to activity at the start of the quarter.” | “The boost to growth from the construction work and replacement purchases will be spread out, but some will likely start occurring in the first quarter of 2016 which will at least partly offset the hit to activity at the start of the quarter.” |
| Flooding impact has to be incoporated into UK GDP forecasts but this belittles real impact in terms of the suffering/stress of the affected | Flooding impact has to be incoporated into UK GDP forecasts but this belittles real impact in terms of the suffering/stress of the affected |
| 10.49am GMT10:49 | 10.49am GMT10:49 |
| New record for UK house prices | New record for UK house prices |
| Its chief executive Paul Smith comments: | Its chief executive Paul Smith comments: |
| “UK house prices rose 13.4% annually and 3.7% on the month to break records again in November. This is the steepest monthly and annual increase on record and follows a surge in registrations from buy-to-let investors since the Autumn Statement in anticipation of the 3% stamp duty surcharge which is effective from the 1st of April 2016. This could mean the stamp duty payable on a property worth £275,000 could rise from £3,750 to £12,000. | “UK house prices rose 13.4% annually and 3.7% on the month to break records again in November. This is the steepest monthly and annual increase on record and follows a surge in registrations from buy-to-let investors since the Autumn Statement in anticipation of the 3% stamp duty surcharge which is effective from the 1st of April 2016. This could mean the stamp duty payable on a property worth £275,000 could rise from £3,750 to £12,000. |
| “Although first-time buyer house prices have remained relatively stable, up just 1.1% in the last month, I expect these to shoot up over the coming months as first-time buyers face fierce competition from buy-to-let investors. The pressure is already being felt by many with demand among first-time-buyers already down 7% in the last month alone. While first-time buyers may face a tough couple of months, once the stamp duty changes come into effect in April, demand from buy-to-let investors is likely to recede so we should see a recovery in prices at this level.” | “Although first-time buyer house prices have remained relatively stable, up just 1.1% in the last month, I expect these to shoot up over the coming months as first-time buyers face fierce competition from buy-to-let investors. The pressure is already being felt by many with demand among first-time-buyers already down 7% in the last month alone. While first-time buyers may face a tough couple of months, once the stamp duty changes come into effect in April, demand from buy-to-let investors is likely to recede so we should see a recovery in prices at this level.” |
| 10.16am GMT10:16 | 10.16am GMT10:16 |
| Deutsche Bank shares are up this morning after news it is selling its 20% stake in Beijing’s Hua Xia Bank, making it the latest Western business to pare back its links to China. | Deutsche Bank shares are up this morning after news it is selling its 20% stake in Beijing’s Hua Xia Bank, making it the latest Western business to pare back its links to China. |
| As Reuters reports, Deutsche is selling the stake to Chinese insurer PICC Property and Casualty Co in a deal worth up to $4bn (£2.69bn). | As Reuters reports, Deutsche is selling the stake to Chinese insurer PICC Property and Casualty Co in a deal worth up to $4bn (£2.69bn). |
| It is the latest move in the German bank’s drastic restructuring by new chief executive, John Cryan. | It is the latest move in the German bank’s drastic restructuring by new chief executive, John Cryan. |
| Shares in Deutsche are up 2.4% while the wider German Dax index is up 1.6%. | Shares in Deutsche are up 2.4% while the wider German Dax index is up 1.6%. |
| 9.48am GMT09:48 | 9.48am GMT09:48 |
| As Britain’s big banks carry on with long task of patching up their reputations, they have new report cards to pore over from the body set up to improve standards in the wake of the Libor-rigging crisis. | As Britain’s big banks carry on with long task of patching up their reputations, they have new report cards to pore over from the body set up to improve standards in the wake of the Libor-rigging crisis. |
| Dame Colette Bowe, chair of the Banking Standards Board (BSB), has likened the assessments of the behaviour and culture inside the major banks to the reports delivered by auditors, which are signed off by the partner at the accountancy firm which has assessed their books and is included in their annual reports. The BSB will publish its own annual report in the spring. | Dame Colette Bowe, chair of the Banking Standards Board (BSB), has likened the assessments of the behaviour and culture inside the major banks to the reports delivered by auditors, which are signed off by the partner at the accountancy firm which has assessed their books and is included in their annual reports. The BSB will publish its own annual report in the spring. |
| The first such set of report cards have been sent to the founder members: Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Royal Bank of Scotland, Santander and Standard Chartered and Nationwide Building Society. | The first such set of report cards have been sent to the founder members: Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Royal Bank of Scotland, Santander and Standard Chartered and Nationwide Building Society. |
| There is also talk of making bankers swear an hippocratic oath in the way that doctors do but that seems to be some way off. | There is also talk of making bankers swear an hippocratic oath in the way that doctors do but that seems to be some way off. |
| My colleagues Jill Treanor and Larry Elliott have the full story: | My colleagues Jill Treanor and Larry Elliott have the full story: |
| Related: UK banks receive first report cards from Banking Standards Board | Related: UK banks receive first report cards from Banking Standards Board |
| 9.14am GMT09:14 | 9.14am GMT09:14 |
| It looks like it was a very merry Christmas for Fitbit, the US-listed maker of wearable health monitors. Reports that its app topped download charts on 25 December suggest plenty of people were unwrapping new gadgets from the firm on Christmas day and that helped lift its shares on Monday. They closed up 3.3%. | It looks like it was a very merry Christmas for Fitbit, the US-listed maker of wearable health monitors. Reports that its app topped download charts on 25 December suggest plenty of people were unwrapping new gadgets from the firm on Christmas day and that helped lift its shares on Monday. They closed up 3.3%. |
| Back in November, Fitbit reported a 168% surge in revenues in its third-quarter earnings report. | Back in November, Fitbit reported a 168% surge in revenues in its third-quarter earnings report. |
| In the UK, department store chain John Lewis recently highlighted Fitbits as it reported record Black Friday sales. Overall sales of wearable technology such as fitness monitors up 850%. Sales of Fitbit trackers were up 1,200%. | In the UK, department store chain John Lewis recently highlighted Fitbits as it reported record Black Friday sales. Overall sales of wearable technology such as fitness monitors up 850%. Sales of Fitbit trackers were up 1,200%. |
| Puts a whole new spin on new year’s healthy living resolutions when your wristband can tell you when you are cheating... | Puts a whole new spin on new year’s healthy living resolutions when your wristband can tell you when you are cheating... |
| 8.43am GMT08:43 | 8.43am GMT08:43 |
| Markets update: Oil steadies, FTSE bobs around unchanged mark | Markets update: Oil steadies, FTSE bobs around unchanged mark |
| After its little Christmas break the FTSE 100 has re-opened this morning and struggling to find some direction. The bluechip index of London-listed shares is up around 8 points, that’s just 0.1%, at 6263. | After its little Christmas break the FTSE 100 has re-opened this morning and struggling to find some direction. The bluechip index of London-listed shares is up around 8 points, that’s just 0.1%, at 6263. |
| That is down around 5% from where the index started 2015 at 6,566. With a sharp sell-off in global commodities, from copper to oil, providing much of the FTSE’s direction this year, it had climbed to a 2015 high of 7122.7 on 27 April but hit a low for 2015 of 5768.2 on 24 August. The index’s average level for the year is 6,592.6, according to Thomson Reuters. | That is down around 5% from where the index started 2015 at 6,566. With a sharp sell-off in global commodities, from copper to oil, providing much of the FTSE’s direction this year, it had climbed to a 2015 high of 7122.7 on 27 April but hit a low for 2015 of 5768.2 on 24 August. The index’s average level for the year is 6,592.6, according to Thomson Reuters. |
| Here’s how the FTSE looks for the year: | Here’s how the FTSE looks for the year: |
| Oil prices meanwhile look set for further falls after already plunging this year. Brent crude shed another 1.3% on Monday but this morning the price per barrel has edged back up 0.5% to $36.8 with traders citing colder temperatures in Europe as boosting demand prospects. | Oil prices meanwhile look set for further falls after already plunging this year. Brent crude shed another 1.3% on Monday but this morning the price per barrel has edged back up 0.5% to $36.8 with traders citing colder temperatures in Europe as boosting demand prospects. |
| Brent crude in 2015: | Brent crude in 2015: |
| Elsewhere, Asian stock markets edged up overnight on the steadier oil price, there is a small boost to European stock markets from firmer financial stocks this morning and copper prices are falling again. | Elsewhere, Asian stock markets edged up overnight on the steadier oil price, there is a small boost to European stock markets from firmer financial stocks this morning and copper prices are falling again. |
| 8.06am GMT08:06 | 8.06am GMT08:06 |
| Introduction: Floods impact, FTSE re-opens | Introduction: Floods impact, FTSE re-opens |
| Good morning and welcome back to our live blog covering financial markets and business and economics news from around the UK and the world. | Good morning and welcome back to our live blog covering financial markets and business and economics news from around the UK and the world. |
| As the north of England and Scotland brace for the arrival of yet another storm later, towns, households and businesses are counting the cost of the flood damage so far. | As the north of England and Scotland brace for the arrival of yet another storm later, towns, households and businesses are counting the cost of the flood damage so far. |
| The morning newspapers put varying figures on the devastation, citing estimates from insurers, accountants and economists. | The morning newspapers put varying figures on the devastation, citing estimates from insurers, accountants and economists. |
| Here is our own main story overnight that the cost of the winter floods across the UK will breach £5bn, with about a fifth of the bill falling on those with inadequate or non-existent insurance policies. | Here is our own main story overnight that the cost of the winter floods across the UK will breach £5bn, with about a fifth of the bill falling on those with inadequate or non-existent insurance policies. |
| That’s according to accountants at KPMG, who warn the insurance policies of many of the worst hit would not cover the full losses. Here’s the full story: | That’s according to accountants at KPMG, who warn the insurance policies of many of the worst hit would not cover the full losses. Here’s the full story: |
| Related: PM defends government spending as cost of floods set to top £5bn | Related: PM defends government spending as cost of floods set to top £5bn |
| As pressure mounts on the UK government over its spending on flood defences, the Mirror condemns a “£6bn Floods Shambles”: | As pressure mounts on the UK government over its spending on flood defences, the Mirror condemns a “£6bn Floods Shambles”: |
| MIRROR: Dam you, Cam #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/h5XkjCveyA | MIRROR: Dam you, Cam #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/h5XkjCveyA |
| The i newspaper goes with the £5bn figure and like others, highlights pressure on prime minister David Cameron: | The i newspaper goes with the £5bn figure and like others, highlights pressure on prime minister David Cameron: |
| THE I PAPER: Flood victims facing ruin turn on the PM #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/vAFZhLr5s1 | THE I PAPER: Flood victims facing ruin turn on the PM #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/vAFZhLr5s1 |
| We’ll be following updates on the expected economic impact of the storms throughout the day. | We’ll be following updates on the expected economic impact of the storms throughout the day. |
| Also on the agenda, the FTSE 100 re-opens after the Christmas break and it is looking like the bluechip index will end the year pretty close to where it started it, after gains in the first half were wiped out by losses for heavyweight commodity-related stocks since the summer. The FTSE 100 has just opened up 0.1%. | Also on the agenda, the FTSE 100 re-opens after the Christmas break and it is looking like the bluechip index will end the year pretty close to where it started it, after gains in the first half were wiped out by losses for heavyweight commodity-related stocks since the summer. The FTSE 100 has just opened up 0.1%. |
| After some choppy trading sessions for global oil prices, Brent Crude is fairly flat this morning, at $36.7, and its movements today will again be providing some direction to stock markets. It’s worth keeping in mind that thin holiday trading could make for some volatile moves. | After some choppy trading sessions for global oil prices, Brent Crude is fairly flat this morning, at $36.7, and its movements today will again be providing some direction to stock markets. It’s worth keeping in mind that thin holiday trading could make for some volatile moves. |
| We will also be keeping an eye out for updates from retailers as they tot up takings from the all-important Christmas shopping and sales season. | We will also be keeping an eye out for updates from retailers as they tot up takings from the all-important Christmas shopping and sales season. |
| In the US later there are a handful economic releases: November’s trade balance (at 1.30pm GMT), October home prices from Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller (at 2pm GMT) and consumer confidence figures from the Conference Board (at 3pm GMT). | In the US later there are a handful economic releases: November’s trade balance (at 1.30pm GMT), October home prices from Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller (at 2pm GMT) and consumer confidence figures from the Conference Board (at 3pm GMT). |
| Updated at 9.38am GMT | Updated at 9.38am GMT |