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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| All-in on Kirk Cousins: QB already keeping good company | All-in on Kirk Cousins: QB already keeping good company |
| (about 13 hours later) | |
| Have you heard of Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts or Phil Simms? | Have you heard of Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts or Phil Simms? |
| All of their careers bear an uncanny resemblance to Kirk Cousins’s at the same stage of their NFL lives. In some cases, it took these more celebrated passers much longer to find their footing and become star quarterbacks. | All of their careers bear an uncanny resemblance to Kirk Cousins’s at the same stage of their NFL lives. In some cases, it took these more celebrated passers much longer to find their footing and become star quarterbacks. |
| At points when they had all started more NFL games than Cousins, they all had awful ratios of touchdowns-to-interceptions as well as miserable quarterback ratings and lousy winning percentages. | At points when they had all started more NFL games than Cousins, they all had awful ratios of touchdowns-to-interceptions as well as miserable quarterback ratings and lousy winning percentages. |
| Cousins, 27, has started only 24 NFL games, yet he’s on the verge of passing for 4,000 yards this season and, by most measuring sticks, ranks in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks. | Cousins, 27, has started only 24 NFL games, yet he’s on the verge of passing for 4,000 yards this season and, by most measuring sticks, ranks in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks. |
| What about those six standouts mentioned above? They were still “projects” or “unfinished” or confused by the speed or complexity of the NFL after they had started 27, 29, 26, 45, 26 and 34 games. Their TD-interception ratios at that point in their careers: 29-31, 37-39, 20-36, 40-59, 16-36 and 39-43. | What about those six standouts mentioned above? They were still “projects” or “unfinished” or confused by the speed or complexity of the NFL after they had started 27, 29, 26, 45, 26 and 34 games. Their TD-interception ratios at that point in their careers: 29-31, 37-39, 20-36, 40-59, 16-36 and 39-43. |
| Until recently, that’s the very ratio that has been used to beat up Cousins. Now, after 24 starts: 44-30. | Until recently, that’s the very ratio that has been used to beat up Cousins. Now, after 24 starts: 44-30. |
| [Scot McCloughan’s team-building effort pays off] | [Scot McCloughan’s team-building effort pays off] |
| When you watch TV commentators who were once star quarterbacks, several have one thing in common. Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Ron Jaworski and Joe Theismann also had careers that are almost duplicates of Cousins’s so far, except for those, like Theismann, who took much longer to click. | When you watch TV commentators who were once star quarterbacks, several have one thing in common. Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Ron Jaworski and Joe Theismann also had careers that are almost duplicates of Cousins’s so far, except for those, like Theismann, who took much longer to click. |
| If you watch Cousins, listed at 202 pounds, and think he’s worrisomely smaller than the prototype passer of this era by 20 to 40 pounds, consider two passers whose builds were similar within their eras and whose careers both looked less promising than Cousins’s after they had each had 32 career starts. But Bart Starr and Bob Griese both ended up in Canton. | If you watch Cousins, listed at 202 pounds, and think he’s worrisomely smaller than the prototype passer of this era by 20 to 40 pounds, consider two passers whose builds were similar within their eras and whose careers both looked less promising than Cousins’s after they had each had 32 career starts. But Bart Starr and Bob Griese both ended up in Canton. |
| To create these comparisons — and I’ve studied the careers of the top 75 passers in NFL history — I’ve gone out of my way to be unfair to Cousins. Before this season, he had started only nine NFL games. If I had used that small sample for finding comparable career progressions, I could have added some more interesting names to this column’s first sentence: Peyton and Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and John Elway. But that data just seemed too skimpy. | To create these comparisons — and I’ve studied the careers of the top 75 passers in NFL history — I’ve gone out of my way to be unfair to Cousins. Before this season, he had started only nine NFL games. If I had used that small sample for finding comparable career progressions, I could have added some more interesting names to this column’s first sentence: Peyton and Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and John Elway. But that data just seemed too skimpy. |
| So I also included Cousins’s first six games of this season, when he had six touchdown passes, eight interceptions, some fumbles and millions of Washington fans muttering that he would never be more than mediocre or, more likely, just a place holder until the team found a real starting quarterback. | So I also included Cousins’s first six games of this season, when he had six touchdown passes, eight interceptions, some fumbles and millions of Washington fans muttering that he would never be more than mediocre or, more likely, just a place holder until the team found a real starting quarterback. |
| Comparing Cousins’s career to date to the early-career development of every top quarterback (ever) and every starting QB of the past 30 years, I’ve come to a conclusion. Bet on Cousins. He’s more likely to be a standout — present and future — than a guy having a career-year mirage. | Comparing Cousins’s career to date to the early-career development of every top quarterback (ever) and every starting QB of the past 30 years, I’ve come to a conclusion. Bet on Cousins. He’s more likely to be a standout — present and future — than a guy having a career-year mirage. |
| [Peter King praises Gruden’s decision to stick with Cousins] | [Peter King praises Gruden’s decision to stick with Cousins] |
| Of course, it’s not a lock. You can find quarterbacks at comparable career junctures who looked first-rate but would have ended up making you smack your forehead in dismay if you gave them a huge contract. Nick Foles, after leading the NFL in QB rating in 2013, is fading. Colin Kaepernick, ouch! Chad Pennington and Brian Griese were also once QB-rating leaders but got hurt or regressed quickly. Daunte Culpepper, after five fine years, including a 4,717-yard season, hurt his knee and was never the same. | Of course, it’s not a lock. You can find quarterbacks at comparable career junctures who looked first-rate but would have ended up making you smack your forehead in dismay if you gave them a huge contract. Nick Foles, after leading the NFL in QB rating in 2013, is fading. Colin Kaepernick, ouch! Chad Pennington and Brian Griese were also once QB-rating leaders but got hurt or regressed quickly. Daunte Culpepper, after five fine years, including a 4,717-yard season, hurt his knee and was never the same. |
| At 25, long-forgotten Don Majkowski of Green Bay led the league in passing yards in 1989 (4,318), then never surpassed 2,000 yards again . Marc Bulger had five excellent years, then evaporated. Even Washington’s Mark Rypien, who was a Super Bowl MVP, was only a fine quarterback for less than four years. | At 25, long-forgotten Don Majkowski of Green Bay led the league in passing yards in 1989 (4,318), then never surpassed 2,000 yards again . Marc Bulger had five excellent years, then evaporated. Even Washington’s Mark Rypien, who was a Super Bowl MVP, was only a fine quarterback for less than four years. |
| For those determined to get a migraine to match mine, look up Jeff Blake at age 25 and 26 in Cincinnati, Scott Mitchell for one amazing 4,338-yard, 32-touchdown season in 1995 in Detroit as well as brief periods in their mid-20s when prices were high for the stocks of Matt Cassel, David Garrard, Michael Vick, Jake Delhomme and Bernie Kosar. | For those determined to get a migraine to match mine, look up Jeff Blake at age 25 and 26 in Cincinnati, Scott Mitchell for one amazing 4,338-yard, 32-touchdown season in 1995 in Detroit as well as brief periods in their mid-20s when prices were high for the stocks of Matt Cassel, David Garrard, Michael Vick, Jake Delhomme and Bernie Kosar. |
| I’ve analyzed everybody to see how long, in years and games started, it takes an NFL quarterback to “figure it out.” For criteria, I’ve focused on QB rating, TD-interception ratio and ANY/A, which is an all-purpose QB stat that even includes proclivity for getting sacked. I’ve adjusted for passing-stat norms in different eras. | |
| Favre, Brees, Moon and Bob Griese were all staggering after three years in the NFL, even though all had more chances to play than Cousins. Fouts and Simms were still question marks after four seasons. | Favre, Brees, Moon and Bob Griese were all staggering after three years in the NFL, even though all had more chances to play than Cousins. Fouts and Simms were still question marks after four seasons. |
| After five years in the NFL, Theismann, at 30, had 30 touchdown passes, 40 interceptions and a hideous 60.4 career QB rating. Then he was a star the next six years (as he’ll tell you). | After five years in the NFL, Theismann, at 30, had 30 touchdown passes, 40 interceptions and a hideous 60.4 career QB rating. Then he was a star the next six years (as he’ll tell you). |
| Why all the skepticism about Cousins — until the past nine weeks? I was part of it, noting that he probably would be the 20th- to 30th-best quarterback, might get better but don’t count on it. Then I gradually inched upward as facts changed. One reason for doubt: He was a fourth-round draft pick, the 102nd overall selection. Respectable. Also, he was locked behind Robert Griffin III for most of three years. | Why all the skepticism about Cousins — until the past nine weeks? I was part of it, noting that he probably would be the 20th- to 30th-best quarterback, might get better but don’t count on it. Then I gradually inched upward as facts changed. One reason for doubt: He was a fourth-round draft pick, the 102nd overall selection. Respectable. Also, he was locked behind Robert Griffin III for most of three years. |
| Last, but maybe most important in this era of instant opinion, Cousins arrived in a period when a ton of the best quarterbacks were stars — or close to it — from Year 1. Nobody said “definition of a career backup” about them. The list: Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger (13-0 as a rookie). A strong trend will stunt interest in finding exceptions. | Last, but maybe most important in this era of instant opinion, Cousins arrived in a period when a ton of the best quarterbacks were stars — or close to it — from Year 1. Nobody said “definition of a career backup” about them. The list: Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger (13-0 as a rookie). A strong trend will stunt interest in finding exceptions. |
| Recently, the NFL put a microphone on Cousins during a game and overheard him saying to a teammate, “WWDB . . . What would Drew Brees do?” | Recently, the NFL put a microphone on Cousins during a game and overheard him saying to a teammate, “WWDB . . . What would Drew Brees do?” |
| The super-accurate Brees, who once trounced an Olympic archer — footballs vs. arrows at a bull’s-eye set at 20, 30 and 40 yards away — is known as a quick-release dart thrower very adept at reading defenses. He has missed only three games in the past 12 years despite being only 209 pounds. He senses pressure well, resets the pocket or moves up in it as needed and can scramble if necessary. | The super-accurate Brees, who once trounced an Olympic archer — footballs vs. arrows at a bull’s-eye set at 20, 30 and 40 yards away — is known as a quick-release dart thrower very adept at reading defenses. He has missed only three games in the past 12 years despite being only 209 pounds. He senses pressure well, resets the pocket or moves up in it as needed and can scramble if necessary. |
| Those who see a high ceiling for Cousins often compare his skill-set to a young Brees. But then they usually add about 20 qualifiers and hedges, implying that he must improve enormously to do it. | Those who see a high ceiling for Cousins often compare his skill-set to a young Brees. But then they usually add about 20 qualifiers and hedges, implying that he must improve enormously to do it. |
| I’ve subtracted a whole lot of my qualifiers. But I’ll just keep a few hedges for warmth. | I’ve subtracted a whole lot of my qualifiers. But I’ll just keep a few hedges for warmth. |
| The Internet allows you to study 100 quarterbacks and scan hundreds more in hours, not days. And you can even change your mind. Cousins may prove to be another Magic Man Majkowski. | The Internet allows you to study 100 quarterbacks and scan hundreds more in hours, not days. And you can even change your mind. Cousins may prove to be another Magic Man Majkowski. |
| But it’s more likely that Cousins will be a first-rate quarterback, at the least, for quite a while. | But it’s more likely that Cousins will be a first-rate quarterback, at the least, for quite a while. |
| Without question, since Oct. 25 he has been playing at exactly that kind of exceptional level. That’s the day he led Washington back against Tampa Bay from a 24-0 deficit to a 31-30 win in the final moments. And then he yelled. | Without question, since Oct. 25 he has been playing at exactly that kind of exceptional level. That’s the day he led Washington back against Tampa Bay from a 24-0 deficit to a 31-30 win in the final moments. And then he yelled. |
| You know what he yelled. If you have those three words emblazoned on a T-shirt, history says that you shouldn’t be afraid to wear it. | You know what he yelled. If you have those three words emblazoned on a T-shirt, history says that you shouldn’t be afraid to wear it. |
| For more by Thomas Boswell, visit washingtonpost.com/boswell. | For more by Thomas Boswell, visit washingtonpost.com/boswell. |
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| Four starters miss practice with injuries; four others are limited | Four starters miss practice with injuries; four others are limited |
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| More NFL: Redskins | Around the league | Bog on Redskins | Fantasy | More NFL: Redskins | Around the league | Bog on Redskins | Fantasy |
| Follow: @MikeJonesWaPo | @lizclarketweet | @MasterTes | @Insider | Follow: @MikeJonesWaPo | @lizclarketweet | @MasterTes | @Insider |