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Alarmingly for pollsters, EU referendum poll results depend heavily on methods Alarmingly for pollsters, EU referendum poll results depend heavily on methods
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One event is set to loom above all others in this new political year: the EU referendum. It is an opportunity for pollsters to redeem themselves after their failure to predict the result of 2015’s UK general election but, as things stand, they are giving very mixed signals.One event is set to loom above all others in this new political year: the EU referendum. It is an opportunity for pollsters to redeem themselves after their failure to predict the result of 2015’s UK general election but, as things stand, they are giving very mixed signals.
Of the 21 most recent polls, 13 show the “remain” camp ahead, four suggest the “leave” camp has it, and another four point to a tie. Averaging across all these surveys, the lead for remaining in the EU is four percentage points, which is a real advantage, but a sufficiently small gap to leave a lot to play for.Of the 21 most recent polls, 13 show the “remain” camp ahead, four suggest the “leave” camp has it, and another four point to a tie. Averaging across all these surveys, the lead for remaining in the EU is four percentage points, which is a real advantage, but a sufficiently small gap to leave a lot to play for.
Alarmingly for the polling industry, however, the result substantially depends on the method used. Nineteen of the 21 polls were done online, and among these the average advantage for “remain” shrivels to a dangerously slim two points. But the two telephone surveys that have been undertaken point to far bigger pro-EU leads of 17 and 21 points. Alarmingly for the polling industry, however, the result substantially depends on the method used. Nineteen of the 21 polls were done online, and among these the average advantage for remain shrivels to a dangerously slim two points. But the two telephone surveys that have been undertaken point to far bigger pro-EU leads of 17 and 21 points.
Related: 2016 in British politics: questions of leadership approach their answersRelated: 2016 in British politics: questions of leadership approach their answers
In the general election, the average error on the final telephone polls was only a fraction of a percentage point smaller than with online, so the two methods looked similarly flawed. But if the huge differences between online and telephone surveys persist, one method or the other can expect to face a bruising referendum, because they cannot both be right.In the general election, the average error on the final telephone polls was only a fraction of a percentage point smaller than with online, so the two methods looked similarly flawed. But if the huge differences between online and telephone surveys persist, one method or the other can expect to face a bruising referendum, because they cannot both be right.
Meanwhile, ICM has been testing the appetite for a British departure across the rest of Europe. It found strong support for the UK’s continuing membership, with an average of 53% of respondents favouring Britain’s continuing membership across nine other countries surveyed, as against 20% who favoured British exit. The majority for Britain remaining a member ran at:Meanwhile, ICM has been testing the appetite for a British departure across the rest of Europe. It found strong support for the UK’s continuing membership, with an average of 53% of respondents favouring Britain’s continuing membership across nine other countries surveyed, as against 20% who favoured British exit. The majority for Britain remaining a member ran at:
Only in Norway, which is not a member of the European Union, would a slight plurality, of 34% to 27%, prefer to see the UK leave and join it outside the club.Only in Norway, which is not a member of the European Union, would a slight plurality, of 34% to 27%, prefer to see the UK leave and join it outside the club.
ICM also investigated the appetite in all these countries to call time on their own membership, in the event that their country staged an in/out referendum. The overall majority for all the other eight EU countries remaining in is 59%-25% – almost identical to the average majority in favour of the UK staying in. There is some interesting variation, with smaller pro-EU majorities in the Scandanavian countries, which shrinks to just two points in Sweden, where 42% of respondents would want to remain in the EU and 40% would want to leave. ICM also investigated the appetite in all these countries to call time on their own membership, in the event that their country staged an in/out referendum. The overall majority for all the other eight EU countries remaining in is 59%-25% – almost identical to the average majority in favour of the UK staying in.
There is some interesting variation, with smaller pro-EU majorities in the Scandanavian countries, which shrinks to just two points in Sweden, where 42% of respondents would want to remain in the EU and 40% would want to leave.
ICM interviewed a representative sample of at least 1000 adults online in each of nine European countries on 15 and 30 November 2015. Interviews in each country have been weighted to the profile of adults living within it. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.