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| Saudi executions put ball of regional tension in Iran's court | Saudi executions put ball of regional tension in Iran's court |
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| The consequences of Saudi Arabia’s mass execution of 47 people will be felt far beyond its Eastern Province, which was home to Nimr al-Nimr, the leading Shia Muslim cleric who was the most prominent figure among those to die on Friday. | The consequences of Saudi Arabia’s mass execution of 47 people will be felt far beyond its Eastern Province, which was home to Nimr al-Nimr, the leading Shia Muslim cleric who was the most prominent figure among those to die on Friday. |
| Unlike many of the Sunni Muslims executed for alleged complicity in al-Qaida terrorism, Nimr was an advocate of non-violent resistance to the unelected Saudi regime. He was arrested in 2012 for criticising the royal family. | Unlike many of the Sunni Muslims executed for alleged complicity in al-Qaida terrorism, Nimr was an advocate of non-violent resistance to the unelected Saudi regime. He was arrested in 2012 for criticising the royal family. |
| Related: Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr: Shia cleric was a thorn in Saudi regime's side | Related: Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr: Shia cleric was a thorn in Saudi regime's side |
| His plight reflected the trials and tribulations of Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority, which accounts for 15% of the country’s 29 million people and has suffered, historically, from institutionalised discrimination and periodic security crackdowns. | His plight reflected the trials and tribulations of Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority, which accounts for 15% of the country’s 29 million people and has suffered, historically, from institutionalised discrimination and periodic security crackdowns. |
| The al-Qatif governorate of Eastern Province, bordering the Gulf, has been the setting for anti-regime agitation since at least 1979, when Saudi Shias demonstrated in support of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, whose Islamic revolution in Iran that year toppled the shah. Trouble erupted again in 2011-13, triggered by the Arab Spring uprising of the Shia majority in nearby Bahrain and its subsequent brutal, Saudi-assisted suppression. | The al-Qatif governorate of Eastern Province, bordering the Gulf, has been the setting for anti-regime agitation since at least 1979, when Saudi Shias demonstrated in support of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, whose Islamic revolution in Iran that year toppled the shah. Trouble erupted again in 2011-13, triggered by the Arab Spring uprising of the Shia majority in nearby Bahrain and its subsequent brutal, Saudi-assisted suppression. |
| This time last year there were protests in Nimr’s home town, al-Awamiyah, over the killing of four men in a raid by security forces. The authorities said the dead were terrorists but residents said the random shootings were typical of continuing official attempts to deny Shia rights and freedoms. | This time last year there were protests in Nimr’s home town, al-Awamiyah, over the killing of four men in a raid by security forces. The authorities said the dead were terrorists but residents said the random shootings were typical of continuing official attempts to deny Shia rights and freedoms. |
| Nimr’s imprisonment and the prospect of mass executions brought calls in Britain and elsewhere for clemency, amid claims by Human Rights Watch campaigners that the trials of the suspects were deeply unjust. | Nimr’s imprisonment and the prospect of mass executions brought calls in Britain and elsewhere for clemency, amid claims by Human Rights Watch campaigners that the trials of the suspects were deeply unjust. |
| Nimr’s case also became a cause celebre across the Shia world, framed in geopolitical as well as humanitarian terms. His fate was linked to the broader, region-wide struggle for power and influence between the Sunni sphere, championed by the House of Saud, on the one hand, and the theocrats of Iran, the most powerful majority Shia state, on the other. Iran repeatedly demanded Nimr’s release, warning Riyadh in October, when his death sentence was confirmed, that executing him would place a “heavy price on Saudi Arabia”. | Nimr’s case also became a cause celebre across the Shia world, framed in geopolitical as well as humanitarian terms. His fate was linked to the broader, region-wide struggle for power and influence between the Sunni sphere, championed by the House of Saud, on the one hand, and the theocrats of Iran, the most powerful majority Shia state, on the other. Iran repeatedly demanded Nimr’s release, warning Riyadh in October, when his death sentence was confirmed, that executing him would place a “heavy price on Saudi Arabia”. |
| Until the last moment, King Salman, the Saudi monarch, had the power to commute Nimr’s sentence or issue a pardon. He did neither. Instead, the executions went ahead, apparently timed to coincide with the western New Year holiday break, when public attention might be expected to be distracted. Some of those executed were shot by firing squad, others were beheaded, in a total of 12 different locations. The bodies of some of the accused were hung from gibbets in public, the most severe form of punishment under Saudi-administered sharia law and similar to crucifixion. It was not immediately known whether Nimr was among them. | Until the last moment, King Salman, the Saudi monarch, had the power to commute Nimr’s sentence or issue a pardon. He did neither. Instead, the executions went ahead, apparently timed to coincide with the western New Year holiday break, when public attention might be expected to be distracted. Some of those executed were shot by firing squad, others were beheaded, in a total of 12 different locations. The bodies of some of the accused were hung from gibbets in public, the most severe form of punishment under Saudi-administered sharia law and similar to crucifixion. It was not immediately known whether Nimr was among them. |
| Nimr’s merciless dispatch will thus be seen as deliberate Saudi defiance of western opinion and international human rights concerns and, possibly, as a direct challenge to Tehran. Iran’s leadership may now feel duty bound to pick up the gauntlet. This is why the outrage and condemnation currently being expressed by Iraqi, Lebanese and Yemeni Shia politicians is essentially background noise. Likewise the limited, spontaneous street protests in Bahrain that followed the executions. Shias in Saudi Arabia and across the region will wait to see what Iran decides. They will take their lead from Tehran. | Nimr’s merciless dispatch will thus be seen as deliberate Saudi defiance of western opinion and international human rights concerns and, possibly, as a direct challenge to Tehran. Iran’s leadership may now feel duty bound to pick up the gauntlet. This is why the outrage and condemnation currently being expressed by Iraqi, Lebanese and Yemeni Shia politicians is essentially background noise. Likewise the limited, spontaneous street protests in Bahrain that followed the executions. Shias in Saudi Arabia and across the region will wait to see what Iran decides. They will take their lead from Tehran. |
| At the very least, Iran can be expected to exploit these events diplomatically, stepping up its propaganda campaign against what it habitually terms the illegitimate and irresponsible Saudi regime. Countries such as Britain and the US, closely allied to Riyadh, are already embarrassed by Saudi human rights abuses. Public disgust will increase their discomfort, though they will not abandon their strategic Saudi alliance for one dead Shia cleric. | At the very least, Iran can be expected to exploit these events diplomatically, stepping up its propaganda campaign against what it habitually terms the illegitimate and irresponsible Saudi regime. Countries such as Britain and the US, closely allied to Riyadh, are already embarrassed by Saudi human rights abuses. Public disgust will increase their discomfort, though they will not abandon their strategic Saudi alliance for one dead Shia cleric. |
| Iranian verbal attacks, if purposefully stepped up (and backed with smuggled weapons, as the Saudis allege), may further inflame opinion in Eastern Province and Bahrain, leading to bigger, destabilising demonstrations. Tehran may also seek to exacerbate reported divisions within the Saudi royal family. King Salman is seen in some quarters as weak and ailing, and in thrall to his hawkish son, the defence minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman. | |
| By ordering the executions, King Salman may have been trying to dispel this image of personal political weakness. If Tehran hardliners get their way, Salman will be hoisted by his own petard. Iran can choose to increase economic pressure on Riyadh, which is already running big current account deficits, by flooding the international market with cheap oil. After last July’s nuclear deal with Tehran, many western embargoes, including on oil exports, are due to be relaxed soon. Ever lower long-term prices could definitively scatter the Saudi house of cards, with unforeseeable consequences. | By ordering the executions, King Salman may have been trying to dispel this image of personal political weakness. If Tehran hardliners get their way, Salman will be hoisted by his own petard. Iran can choose to increase economic pressure on Riyadh, which is already running big current account deficits, by flooding the international market with cheap oil. After last July’s nuclear deal with Tehran, many western embargoes, including on oil exports, are due to be relaxed soon. Ever lower long-term prices could definitively scatter the Saudi house of cards, with unforeseeable consequences. |
| Tehran might also decide to retaliate by stepping up military support for Houthi Shia rebels in Yemen, who are fighting a Saudi-led alliance. Coincidentally or not, Riyadh announced on Saturday it was ending a partial ceasefire in Yemen that began last month. Hostilities are expected to intensify despite a new round of peace talks. | Tehran might also decide to retaliate by stepping up military support for Houthi Shia rebels in Yemen, who are fighting a Saudi-led alliance. Coincidentally or not, Riyadh announced on Saturday it was ending a partial ceasefire in Yemen that began last month. Hostilities are expected to intensify despite a new round of peace talks. |
| More worryingly, perhaps, for Syrian civilians and refugees and EU countries, the furore over Nimr’s death could sabotage western attempts to induce Iran and Saudi Arabia to collaborate in bringing an end to Syria’s civil war. Iranian spokesmen were quick to draw a link between executions of alleged terrorists and alleged Saudi support for Salafist Sunni terror groups in Syria. Despite reports it has recently been pulling back, Tehran still has the option of stepping up operations inside Syria by its Revolutionary Guard units and its Lebanese militia ally, Hezbollah, against Saudi-backed anti-government forces. Iran has recently been making conciliatory noises, saying it wants to cooperate with the western powers in ending the Syrian nightmare. Its national interest suggests a calm, measured response to the latest events in Saudi Arabia would be best advised. | More worryingly, perhaps, for Syrian civilians and refugees and EU countries, the furore over Nimr’s death could sabotage western attempts to induce Iran and Saudi Arabia to collaborate in bringing an end to Syria’s civil war. Iranian spokesmen were quick to draw a link between executions of alleged terrorists and alleged Saudi support for Salafist Sunni terror groups in Syria. Despite reports it has recently been pulling back, Tehran still has the option of stepping up operations inside Syria by its Revolutionary Guard units and its Lebanese militia ally, Hezbollah, against Saudi-backed anti-government forces. Iran has recently been making conciliatory noises, saying it wants to cooperate with the western powers in ending the Syrian nightmare. Its national interest suggests a calm, measured response to the latest events in Saudi Arabia would be best advised. |
| But there is no unity of view in Tehran. If hardliners succeed in portraying Nimr’s execution as a deliberate, national provocation that must be forcefully avenged, hopes of Syrian peace this year could be seriously damaged. | But there is no unity of view in Tehran. If hardliners succeed in portraying Nimr’s execution as a deliberate, national provocation that must be forcefully avenged, hopes of Syrian peace this year could be seriously damaged. |