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China closes 2% higher but other markets fall after US jobs data – as it happened | China closes 2% higher but other markets fall after US jobs data – as it happened |
(6 days later) | |
5.59pm GMT | 5.59pm GMT |
17:59 | 17:59 |
And in Europe the FTSEurofirst 300 fell 7% over the course of the week, marking its worst weekly performance since August 2011 amid the eurozone crisis. | And in Europe the FTSEurofirst 300 fell 7% over the course of the week, marking its worst weekly performance since August 2011 amid the eurozone crisis. |
On that, gloomy, note it’s time to close the blog after what has been a tumultuous week. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back on Monday to cover all the week’s financial developments. | On that, gloomy, note it’s time to close the blog after what has been a tumultuous week. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back on Monday to cover all the week’s financial developments. |
Updated | Updated |
at 6.01pm GMT | at 6.01pm GMT |
5.47pm GMT | 5.47pm GMT |
17:47 | 17:47 |
To add to the New Year market gloom, the FTSE 100 has made its worst weekly start to the year since 2000. The Dow Jones Industrial had already recorded its worst ever 4-day opening at the start of the year and the modest rise so far on Friday is unlikely to improve things, unless there is a major revival before the close. | To add to the New Year market gloom, the FTSE 100 has made its worst weekly start to the year since 2000. The Dow Jones Industrial had already recorded its worst ever 4-day opening at the start of the year and the modest rise so far on Friday is unlikely to improve things, unless there is a major revival before the close. |
Updated | Updated |
at 5.48pm GMT | at 5.48pm GMT |
5.23pm GMT | 5.23pm GMT |
17:23 | 17:23 |
European markets end a bad week on a low note | European markets end a bad week on a low note |
A poor week for global stock markets finished in negative fashion despite earlier hopes of a recovery. The volatility and chaos caused by disappointing Chinese data and the failed attempt to control the country’s stock market with circuit breakers had sent investors running for the hills this week. But a 2% rise in the Chinese market earlier on Friday, following the abandonment of the circuit breakers and some support from the authorities for the yuan, gave some hope that a better day was in prospect. | A poor week for global stock markets finished in negative fashion despite earlier hopes of a recovery. The volatility and chaos caused by disappointing Chinese data and the failed attempt to control the country’s stock market with circuit breakers had sent investors running for the hills this week. But a 2% rise in the Chinese market earlier on Friday, following the abandonment of the circuit breakers and some support from the authorities for the yuan, gave some hope that a better day was in prospect. |
Better than expected US jobs figures put an end to that, prompting talk of further US rate rises and pushing the dollar higher, and by extension the oil price lower. With all the other geopolitical problems - North Korea’s possible hydrogen bomb, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran - as well as Chinese inflation data this Saturday, traders decided to take their money off the table ahead of the weekend. | Better than expected US jobs figures put an end to that, prompting talk of further US rate rises and pushing the dollar higher, and by extension the oil price lower. With all the other geopolitical problems - North Korea’s possible hydrogen bomb, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran - as well as Chinese inflation data this Saturday, traders decided to take their money off the table ahead of the weekend. |
Market analyst Tony Cross at Trustnet Direct said: | Market analyst Tony Cross at Trustnet Direct said: |
A degree of calm in Chinese markets overnight has done little to placate sentiment, whilst better than expected employment data out of the US is also adding to woes. As global growth projections are trimmed whilst the Federal Reserve eyes the next interest rate hike, across the board it seems as if the economy will now face sustained headwinds. | A degree of calm in Chinese markets overnight has done little to placate sentiment, whilst better than expected employment data out of the US is also adding to woes. As global growth projections are trimmed whilst the Federal Reserve eyes the next interest rate hike, across the board it seems as if the economy will now face sustained headwinds. |
So Brent crude is currently down 1.6% at $33.18 a barrel, pushing commodity companies lower again. | So Brent crude is currently down 1.6% at $33.18 a barrel, pushing commodity companies lower again. |
The FTSE 100 has lost nearly £85bn in value this week, recording its biggest weekly fall (5.28%) since August last year when the Chinese (yes, them again) sent ructions through global markets by devaluing the yuan. | The FTSE 100 has lost nearly £85bn in value this week, recording its biggest weekly fall (5.28%) since August last year when the Chinese (yes, them again) sent ructions through global markets by devaluing the yuan. |
According to CNBC, the global market as measured by the S&P Global Broad Market Index has lost more than $2trn this week. The final scores for the day showed: | According to CNBC, the global market as measured by the S&P Global Broad Market Index has lost more than $2trn this week. The final scores for the day showed: |
On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 62 points or 0.38%. | On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 62 points or 0.38%. |
4.10pm GMT | 4.10pm GMT |
16:10 | 16:10 |
One of the reasons for the decline in markets since the initial enthusiasm for the US jobs data is the feeling that the strong figures make a rate rise more likely. The disappointing wages growth might mitigate against an early rise, but the general feeling seems to be that even dearer borrowing costs are now more likely. Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, said: | One of the reasons for the decline in markets since the initial enthusiasm for the US jobs data is the feeling that the strong figures make a rate rise more likely. The disappointing wages growth might mitigate against an early rise, but the general feeling seems to be that even dearer borrowing costs are now more likely. Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, said: |
Heading into the close, the FTSE 100 has given up all its gains for the day, finishing a tough week on a miserable note. | Heading into the close, the FTSE 100 has given up all its gains for the day, finishing a tough week on a miserable note. |
After a passable performance overnight for the Chinese market, hopes were high that stock markets in Europe and the US could claw back some of their own losses. So far on this side of the pond, that has not been the case. | After a passable performance overnight for the Chinese market, hopes were high that stock markets in Europe and the US could claw back some of their own losses. So far on this side of the pond, that has not been the case. |
Equity traders have been left bereft of reasons to be optimistic this week, and it looks like the China fears of the past few days will remain with us as we head into a new week. US job numbers kicked off 2016 in fine form, well ahead of estimates, but the lack of wage growth was the fly in the ointment. The fear now is that such good numbers, even with inflation worries, will encourage the Fed to continue with its planned four hikes this year, putting fresh pressure on equity markets. | Equity traders have been left bereft of reasons to be optimistic this week, and it looks like the China fears of the past few days will remain with us as we head into a new week. US job numbers kicked off 2016 in fine form, well ahead of estimates, but the lack of wage growth was the fly in the ointment. The fear now is that such good numbers, even with inflation worries, will encourage the Fed to continue with its planned four hikes this year, putting fresh pressure on equity markets. |
3.36pm GMT | 3.36pm GMT |
15:36 | 15:36 |
Larry Elliott | Larry Elliott |
Here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on the US jobs data: | Here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on the US jobs data: |
It seems just like the good old days. Almost 300,000 jobs were added to payrolls in America in the last month of 2015, continuing the upward trend of recent months. The US is once again living up to its reputation for being a gigantic jobs machine. | It seems just like the good old days. Almost 300,000 jobs were added to payrolls in America in the last month of 2015, continuing the upward trend of recent months. The US is once again living up to its reputation for being a gigantic jobs machine. |
Well, perhaps. Jobs are certainly being created at a good lick and the US has an unemployment rate – 5% – that the eurozone, at 10.5%, would die for. There are signs that people who had given up hope of finding work are being encouraged back into the labour market. | Well, perhaps. Jobs are certainly being created at a good lick and the US has an unemployment rate – 5% – that the eurozone, at 10.5%, would die for. There are signs that people who had given up hope of finding work are being encouraged back into the labour market. |
Inevitably, this will lead to speculation that the Federal Reserve has left it too late to start raising interest rates and will now be forced to play catch up with a more rapid increase in the cost of borrowing than Wall Street is expecting. There is already talk of the Fed repeating December’s rate hike in March. | Inevitably, this will lead to speculation that the Federal Reserve has left it too late to start raising interest rates and will now be forced to play catch up with a more rapid increase in the cost of borrowing than Wall Street is expecting. There is already talk of the Fed repeating December’s rate hike in March. |
The markets may be getting ahead of themselves. Employment and unemployment are lagging indicators: they provide a guide to what has happened to an economy in the past rather than what is happening now or what will happen in the future. Some of the forward-looking indicators – for manufacturing, for example – have been worryingly weak. | The markets may be getting ahead of themselves. Employment and unemployment are lagging indicators: they provide a guide to what has happened to an economy in the past rather than what is happening now or what will happen in the future. Some of the forward-looking indicators – for manufacturing, for example – have been worryingly weak. |
The Fed will certainly be looking closely at the rate of job creation in the US, but it is equally interested in what is happening to wages. And the story here is that pay pressures are extremely muted. Average hourly earnings were flat in December and were up by just 2.5% over the year as a whole, a much weaker outcome than Wall Street had been anticipating. | The Fed will certainly be looking closely at the rate of job creation in the US, but it is equally interested in what is happening to wages. And the story here is that pay pressures are extremely muted. Average hourly earnings were flat in December and were up by just 2.5% over the year as a whole, a much weaker outcome than Wall Street had been anticipating. |
His full analysis is here: | His full analysis is here: |
Related: US employment is up, wages are static. Ring any bells? | Related: US employment is up, wages are static. Ring any bells? |
3.30pm GMT | 3.30pm GMT |
15:30 | 15:30 |
Markets are flagging after the initial burst of enthusiasm following the US jobs data. On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 51 points, the FTSE 100 is just 2 points higher while Germany’s Dax is down 42 points. | Markets are flagging after the initial burst of enthusiasm following the US jobs data. On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 51 points, the FTSE 100 is just 2 points higher while Germany’s Dax is down 42 points. |
Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said: | Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said: |
Initially buoyed by a bombastic non-farm figure the global indices couldn’t sustain their surge, the US open ending up not being the white knight the European markets were looking for. | Initially buoyed by a bombastic non-farm figure the global indices couldn’t sustain their surge, the US open ending up not being the white knight the European markets were looking for. |
Perhaps the superb non-farm figure (at 292,000 against the 203,000 expected and an upwards revised 252,000 last month) was tempered by falling wage growth (at 0.0% against the 0.2% forecast) and an unchanged unemployment rate. Or perhaps investors aren’t willing to take too much risk into the weekend, especially with the prospect of another awful start to Monday on the cards. Either way the Dow couldn’t manage to match the gains its futures were promising, at points flagging in the same way the European indices have done for much of the day. | Perhaps the superb non-farm figure (at 292,000 against the 203,000 expected and an upwards revised 252,000 last month) was tempered by falling wage growth (at 0.0% against the 0.2% forecast) and an unchanged unemployment rate. Or perhaps investors aren’t willing to take too much risk into the weekend, especially with the prospect of another awful start to Monday on the cards. Either way the Dow couldn’t manage to match the gains its futures were promising, at points flagging in the same way the European indices have done for much of the day. |
Chinese inflation figures are due over the weekend which could prompt further market ructions next week, given what has happened in the past few days. | Chinese inflation figures are due over the weekend which could prompt further market ructions next week, given what has happened in the past few days. |
3.09pm GMT | 3.09pm GMT |
15:09 | 15:09 |
Here’s something to put the latest US jobs figures in context: | Here’s something to put the latest US jobs figures in context: |
US Unemployment Rate Dec 2015: 5% Dec 2007: 5% Full Time Jobs 2015: 122.8m 2008: 123.2m Population +15m BLS data (2) | US Unemployment Rate Dec 2015: 5% Dec 2007: 5% Full Time Jobs 2015: 122.8m 2008: 123.2m Population +15m BLS data (2) |
3.03pm GMT | 3.03pm GMT |
15:03 | 15:03 |
Back with China, and here’s a graphic showing all the recent intervention in the country’s stock market: | Back with China, and here’s a graphic showing all the recent intervention in the country’s stock market: |
What else can the PBOC do? 🤔 How China has intervened in its stock market: https://t.co/EzMRSeYKRf $ASHR $FXI pic.twitter.com/1grfJwMHMq | What else can the PBOC do? 🤔 How China has intervened in its stock market: https://t.co/EzMRSeYKRf $ASHR $FXI pic.twitter.com/1grfJwMHMq |
2.58pm GMT | 2.58pm GMT |
14:58 | 14:58 |
IG’s Joshua Mahony is not surprised by the fluctuations in the dollar following the non-farm payroll report: | IG’s Joshua Mahony is not surprised by the fluctuations in the dollar following the non-farm payroll report: |
That dollar rally didnt last too long. Fully expected to see any big move revert back to square one as is so often the case on jobs day #NFP | That dollar rally didnt last too long. Fully expected to see any big move revert back to square one as is so often the case on jobs day #NFP |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.58pm GMT | at 2.58pm GMT |
2.55pm GMT | 2.55pm GMT |
14:55 | 14:55 |
But not everyone agrees. Economist Nina Skero at the Centre for Economics and Business Research does expect a US rate rise, but perhaps not until the third quarter of the year: | But not everyone agrees. Economist Nina Skero at the Centre for Economics and Business Research does expect a US rate rise, but perhaps not until the third quarter of the year: |
Overall, the data add to the view that the US economic recovery steams ahead as wage gains and the unemployment rate approach long-run norms and as job creation figures, which admittedly can be rather volatile, remain high. | Overall, the data add to the view that the US economic recovery steams ahead as wage gains and the unemployment rate approach long-run norms and as job creation figures, which admittedly can be rather volatile, remain high. |
In the aftermath of December’s historic Federal Open Market Committee decision and this week’s data releases perhaps the question on the minds of many is what is the future of US monetary policy? It is important to keep in mind that as one swallow does not a summer make, one rate hike does not a normalized monetary policy make. Even with the December rise interest rates in the US remain low and although the committee has restated its intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy, it is reasonable to expect further hikes in 2016 – an expectation further strengthened by today’s strong labour market data. | In the aftermath of December’s historic Federal Open Market Committee decision and this week’s data releases perhaps the question on the minds of many is what is the future of US monetary policy? It is important to keep in mind that as one swallow does not a summer make, one rate hike does not a normalized monetary policy make. Even with the December rise interest rates in the US remain low and although the committee has restated its intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy, it is reasonable to expect further hikes in 2016 – an expectation further strengthened by today’s strong labour market data. |
However, this is not to say that sources of risk which could slow down the recovery do not exist, both domestically and globally. Today’s labour-market release shows a participation rate of 62.6% - well below pre-crisis levels. On the global front, equity markets turmoil and the slowdown in China are among the greatest concerns. | However, this is not to say that sources of risk which could slow down the recovery do not exist, both domestically and globally. Today’s labour-market release shows a participation rate of 62.6% - well below pre-crisis levels. On the global front, equity markets turmoil and the slowdown in China are among the greatest concerns. |
The exact pace and extent of further interest rate hikes is difficult to predict given that the FOMC itself maintains that it is data-dependent and that it will continue to make interest rate decisions based on a series of indicators that it is monitoring rather than on a pre-set schedule. | The exact pace and extent of further interest rate hikes is difficult to predict given that the FOMC itself maintains that it is data-dependent and that it will continue to make interest rate decisions based on a series of indicators that it is monitoring rather than on a pre-set schedule. |
Keeping in mind that the US economy is expected to perform strongly in 2016, but also that December minutes show that the FOMC wants to observe the potentially delayed impact of the rate rise before making further hikes, Cebr expects interest rates to rise to 0.75% in the third quarter of 2016. | Keeping in mind that the US economy is expected to perform strongly in 2016, but also that December minutes show that the FOMC wants to observe the potentially delayed impact of the rate rise before making further hikes, Cebr expects interest rates to rise to 0.75% in the third quarter of 2016. |
2.48pm GMT | 2.48pm GMT |
14:48 | 14:48 |
Here’s someone who thinks the Federal Reserve could raise US interest rates at its March meeting despite the uninspiring wage data. Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit Research said: | Here’s someone who thinks the Federal Reserve could raise US interest rates at its March meeting despite the uninspiring wage data. Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit Research said: |
Average hourly earnings were only flat between November and December. But thanks to a positive basis effect, the year on year rate ticked up to 2.5% from 2.3%. But while the Fed has said at a number of recent occasions that it puts more emphasis on the actual development of inflation rates when determining the appropriate path for short-term interest rates, we think that the unambiguous display of strength in the labor market will continue to bolster the confidence of FOMC members that (a) consumer spending will continue to power the US economy ahead – despite global headwinds, and (b) that faster wage gains will eventually lift domestic inflation rates. Accordingly, we continue to expect three rate hikes for 2016, with the next one coming at the March meeting. | Average hourly earnings were only flat between November and December. But thanks to a positive basis effect, the year on year rate ticked up to 2.5% from 2.3%. But while the Fed has said at a number of recent occasions that it puts more emphasis on the actual development of inflation rates when determining the appropriate path for short-term interest rates, we think that the unambiguous display of strength in the labor market will continue to bolster the confidence of FOMC members that (a) consumer spending will continue to power the US economy ahead – despite global headwinds, and (b) that faster wage gains will eventually lift domestic inflation rates. Accordingly, we continue to expect three rate hikes for 2016, with the next one coming at the March meeting. |
On the jobs numbers themselves he said: | On the jobs numbers themselves he said: |
To be sure, the labor market in the fourth quarter of 2015 most likely benefited from two special factors. First, there was a technical rebound in October, after the August and September numbers disappointed (in part due to seasonal adjustment issues). And in November and December, the unusually mild winter weather clearly supported employment in weather-sensitive areas, notably construction. | To be sure, the labor market in the fourth quarter of 2015 most likely benefited from two special factors. First, there was a technical rebound in October, after the August and September numbers disappointed (in part due to seasonal adjustment issues). And in November and December, the unusually mild winter weather clearly supported employment in weather-sensitive areas, notably construction. |
There is, however, in our view no reason at all to question the underlying message of today’s and the previous couple of employment reports: The US labor market continues to be red-hot despite daily reports of global economic headwinds and financial market turmoil. The reason for this resilience – as highlighted at several occasions – is that most of the value added and of the job creation in the US occurs in the services sector, which is barely affected by global developments. And this trend strengthened further in 2015. After in 2014 81% of jobs were created in services, this number rose to a whopping 94% in 2015; with another 10% coming from the construction sector! That leaves a very small share of the labor market exposed to the adverse impacts of global economic headwinds and low oil prices. | There is, however, in our view no reason at all to question the underlying message of today’s and the previous couple of employment reports: The US labor market continues to be red-hot despite daily reports of global economic headwinds and financial market turmoil. The reason for this resilience – as highlighted at several occasions – is that most of the value added and of the job creation in the US occurs in the services sector, which is barely affected by global developments. And this trend strengthened further in 2015. After in 2014 81% of jobs were created in services, this number rose to a whopping 94% in 2015; with another 10% coming from the construction sector! That leaves a very small share of the labor market exposed to the adverse impacts of global economic headwinds and low oil prices. |
2.33pm GMT | 2.33pm GMT |
14:33 | 14:33 |
#Commodities (even #gold) unfazed by strong US jobs report: big #NFP gains suggest growth fears overdone, but wage data won't yet worry Fed. | #Commodities (even #gold) unfazed by strong US jobs report: big #NFP gains suggest growth fears overdone, but wage data won't yet worry Fed. |
2.33pm GMT | 2.33pm GMT |
14:33 | 14:33 |
Wall Street opens higher | Wall Street opens higher |
As expected after the better than expected US jobs figures, Wall Street has moved ahead in early trading. | As expected after the better than expected US jobs figures, Wall Street has moved ahead in early trading. |
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has added 110 points or 0.6% while the S&P 500 is up 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.7%. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average has added 110 points or 0.6% while the S&P 500 is up 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.7%. |
2.25pm GMT | 2.25pm GMT |
14:25 | 14:25 |
Here’s our story on the US non-farm payrolls: | Here’s our story on the US non-farm payrolls: |
Related: US jobs report: economy adds 292,000 positions in strong finish to 2015 | Related: US jobs report: economy adds 292,000 positions in strong finish to 2015 |
2.24pm GMT | 2.24pm GMT |
14:24 | 14:24 |
More detail on the US jobs: | More detail on the US jobs: |
On the mining sector, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said: | On the mining sector, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said: |
Employment in mining continued to decline in December (-8,000). After adding 41,000 jobs in 2014, mining lost 129,000 jobs in 2015, with most of the loss in support activities for mining. | Employment in mining continued to decline in December (-8,000). After adding 41,000 jobs in 2014, mining lost 129,000 jobs in 2015, with most of the loss in support activities for mining. |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.29pm GMT | at 2.29pm GMT |
2.18pm GMT | 2.18pm GMT |
14:18 | 14:18 |
Further consideration of the wages data - and the implications for the Federal Reserve to hold fire on another rate rise - has seen the dollar lose some of its initial strength in the wake of the figures. | Further consideration of the wages data - and the implications for the Federal Reserve to hold fire on another rate rise - has seen the dollar lose some of its initial strength in the wake of the figures. |
Against the pound, the US currency is at $1.4572 compared to $1.4556 earlier. | Against the pound, the US currency is at $1.4572 compared to $1.4556 earlier. |
2.11pm GMT | 2.11pm GMT |
14:11 | 14:11 |
On the wages figures, Alex Lydall at Foenix Partners said: | On the wages figures, Alex Lydall at Foenix Partners said: |
Not all components were positive in today’s payroll print with Average Hourly Earnings being a particular concern falling 0.2% below forecasts. More jobs being created can only be seen as good news, but with hourly earnings lagging, labour cost inflation is still a slight concern to Janet Yellen. | Not all components were positive in today’s payroll print with Average Hourly Earnings being a particular concern falling 0.2% below forecasts. More jobs being created can only be seen as good news, but with hourly earnings lagging, labour cost inflation is still a slight concern to Janet Yellen. |
2.09pm GMT | 2.09pm GMT |
14:09 | 14:09 |
The strong payrolls number has vindicated the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates in December, said Rob Carnell at ING Bank, but the next increase may not come until June. He said: | The strong payrolls number has vindicated the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates in December, said Rob Carnell at ING Bank, but the next increase may not come until June. He said: |
However, aside from this strong headline, there is not much else to get too excited about. The unemployment rate stood unchanged at 5.0%, still very low by any standards. | However, aside from this strong headline, there is not much else to get too excited about. The unemployment rate stood unchanged at 5.0%, still very low by any standards. |
One considerable disappointment in this survey, and perhaps a more important one as far as the pace of future fed hikes is concerned, is the wages figures. These grew at only a 2.5% year on year rise, and were flat over the month in December. Consensus had been looking for a modest 0.2% month on month increase, which would have taken wages into a range they had not inhabited since before the financial crisis. Instead, wages still seem to be struggling to rise. There was also no change in the average workweek, which tends to support the notion that wage pressures remain subdued, as increased hours frequently indicate a tight labour market and building wage pressures. | One considerable disappointment in this survey, and perhaps a more important one as far as the pace of future fed hikes is concerned, is the wages figures. These grew at only a 2.5% year on year rise, and were flat over the month in December. Consensus had been looking for a modest 0.2% month on month increase, which would have taken wages into a range they had not inhabited since before the financial crisis. Instead, wages still seem to be struggling to rise. There was also no change in the average workweek, which tends to support the notion that wage pressures remain subdued, as increased hours frequently indicate a tight labour market and building wage pressures. |
Consequently, and even with the strong headline payrolls figure, we don’t think these figures support a March rate hike, talk of which had been building over the past week following strong non-manufacturing ISM and ADP data. Our house forecast for the next hike in June is still, we think, a more likely outcome. | Consequently, and even with the strong headline payrolls figure, we don’t think these figures support a March rate hike, talk of which had been building over the past week following strong non-manufacturing ISM and ADP data. Our house forecast for the next hike in June is still, we think, a more likely outcome. |
Updated | Updated |
at 3.59pm GMT | at 3.59pm GMT |
2.04pm GMT | 2.04pm GMT |
14:04 | 14:04 |
Wages in the US were also on the rise, the figures show, but perhaps not enough for another interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. | Wages in the US were also on the rise, the figures show, but perhaps not enough for another interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. |
The year on year gain was 2.5% in December compares to 2.3% in November, and is expected to pick up further as employment increases. However the average hourly earnings figure dropped a cent in December. | The year on year gain was 2.5% in December compares to 2.3% in November, and is expected to pick up further as employment increases. However the average hourly earnings figure dropped a cent in December. |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.50pm GMT | at 2.50pm GMT |
1.57pm GMT | 1.57pm GMT |
13:57 | 13:57 |
The full US jobs report is here. | The full US jobs report is here. |
1.55pm GMT | 1.55pm GMT |
13:55 | 13:55 |
Here are the charts showing the US job gains and unemployment rate: | Here are the charts showing the US job gains and unemployment rate: |
1.40pm GMT | 1.40pm GMT |
13:40 | 13:40 |
The jobs data may well have vindicated the Fed’s rate decision, but there is no reason to be complacent, suggests Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com. He said: | The jobs data may well have vindicated the Fed’s rate decision, but there is no reason to be complacent, suggests Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com. He said: |
It’s far too soon to know definitively if Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Co. made the right decision in raising interest rates last month. However, December’s well above expected non-farm payroll figures will confirm her assessment that the world’s biggest economy is in rude health. | It’s far too soon to know definitively if Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Co. made the right decision in raising interest rates last month. However, December’s well above expected non-farm payroll figures will confirm her assessment that the world’s biggest economy is in rude health. |
Despite the positive jobs figures, there are plenty of challenges on the horizon for Yellen to navigate, not least depressed oil prices and the Chinese economy playing havoc with exchanges the world over. Observers will be hoping that next week’s US retail sales figures show a bumper holiday trading period. | Despite the positive jobs figures, there are plenty of challenges on the horizon for Yellen to navigate, not least depressed oil prices and the Chinese economy playing havoc with exchanges the world over. Observers will be hoping that next week’s US retail sales figures show a bumper holiday trading period. |
Updated | Updated |
at 1.57pm GMT | at 1.57pm GMT |
1.37pm GMT | 1.37pm GMT |
13:37 | 13:37 |
The better than expected US jobs data could well prompt further rate rises this year, and this has pushed the dollar higher again. | The better than expected US jobs data could well prompt further rate rises this year, and this has pushed the dollar higher again. |
Sterling has hit the day’s low of $1.4556 , down from $1.4590 beforehand, while the euro has fallen around 1%. | Sterling has hit the day’s low of $1.4556 , down from $1.4590 beforehand, while the euro has fallen around 1%. |
Markets seem to like the news. The FTSE 100 is now up 47 points and is back over 6000, Germany’s Dax has climbed 0.3% and France’s Cac has come off its lows, down 0.16%. | Markets seem to like the news. The FTSE 100 is now up 47 points and is back over 6000, Germany’s Dax has climbed 0.3% and France’s Cac has come off its lows, down 0.16%. |
US futures are now showing a 147 point opening on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. | US futures are now showing a 147 point opening on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. |
Updated | Updated |
at 1.44pm GMT | at 1.44pm GMT |
1.32pm GMT | 1.32pm GMT |
13:32 | 13:32 |
The jobless rate however has come in line with forecasts at 5%. | The jobless rate however has come in line with forecasts at 5%. |
1.31pm GMT | 1.31pm GMT |
13:31 | 13:31 |
November’s jobs figure has been revised up from 211,000 to 252,000 and October’s from 298,000 to 307,000. | November’s jobs figure has been revised up from 211,000 to 252,000 and October’s from 298,000 to 307,000. |
1.30pm GMT | 1.30pm GMT |
13:30 | 13:30 |
US jobs beat expectations | US jobs beat expectations |
The non-farm payroll numbers for December showed a 292,000 rise compared to expectations of 200,000. | The non-farm payroll numbers for December showed a 292,000 rise compared to expectations of 200,000. |
That seems to back up the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates last month. | That seems to back up the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates last month. |
1.29pm GMT | 1.29pm GMT |
13:29 | 13:29 |
Unless we added more than 500,000 new #jobs in December, 2015 will mark a slowdown in job growth from 2014. | Unless we added more than 500,000 new #jobs in December, 2015 will mark a slowdown in job growth from 2014. |
1.27pm GMT | 1.27pm GMT |
13:27 | 13:27 |
Our Financial editor, Nils Pratley, has kicked the tires on Sports Direct’s profit warning. | Our Financial editor, Nils Pratley, has kicked the tires on Sports Direct’s profit warning. |
His verdict - the City is changing its view of Mike Ashley’s empire, fast. And can the weather really be blamed? | His verdict - the City is changing its view of Mike Ashley’s empire, fast. And can the weather really be blamed? |
Should a mild winter really upset trading at a sportswear chain? Sports Direct is not in the coats and jumpers business in the way that Marks & Spencer and Next are. Warm temperatures, in theory, might even encourage better sales of trainers and tracksuits than freezing conditions. | Should a mild winter really upset trading at a sportswear chain? Sports Direct is not in the coats and jumpers business in the way that Marks & Spencer and Next are. Warm temperatures, in theory, might even encourage better sales of trainers and tracksuits than freezing conditions. |
Doesn’t Sports Direct have a strong online business to capture the switch to online shopping? And surely the weather hasn’t changed radically since management said four weeks ago it remained confident of achieving top-line profits of £420m in the current financial year; now it says anything between £380m and £420m is possible. | Doesn’t Sports Direct have a strong online business to capture the switch to online shopping? And surely the weather hasn’t changed radically since management said four weeks ago it remained confident of achieving top-line profits of £420m in the current financial year; now it says anything between £380m and £420m is possible. |
Related: Sports Direct's story of easy growth seems to be over | Related: Sports Direct's story of easy growth seems to be over |