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| Tonight’s GOP debate features Trump vs. Cruz, and then the rest | Tonight’s GOP debate features Trump vs. Cruz, and then the rest |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Republican presidential candidates will gather for their sixth set of debates tonight, with the race having split into two bitter mini-battles. One is between Iowa front-runners Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, whose old truce unravelled into insult-trading this week. The other is between everybody else. | Republican presidential candidates will gather for their sixth set of debates tonight, with the race having split into two bitter mini-battles. One is between Iowa front-runners Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, whose old truce unravelled into insult-trading this week. The other is between everybody else. |
| The rest of the field — highly accomplished, great-on-paper candidates like Ohio Gov. John Kasich, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and former Florida governor Jeb Bush — are all relying on some variant of the same strategy: Survive long enough for voters to come to their senses. | The rest of the field — highly accomplished, great-on-paper candidates like Ohio Gov. John Kasich, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and former Florida governor Jeb Bush — are all relying on some variant of the same strategy: Survive long enough for voters to come to their senses. |
| The main debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern time in North Charleston, S.C. It will be preceded by an “undercard” debate, with three low-polling candidates, at 6 p.m. | The main debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern time in North Charleston, S.C. It will be preceded by an “undercard” debate, with three low-polling candidates, at 6 p.m. |
| Both debates will be televised on Fox Business Network. | Both debates will be televised on Fox Business Network. |
| The debate could bring a revealing, in-person faceoff between Trump and Cruz. They are two “outsider” candidates (though one is a golf-course-owning billionaire and the other is a U.S. senator) with a gift for biting insults. But, for weeks, they gave each other a pass. | The debate could bring a revealing, in-person faceoff between Trump and Cruz. They are two “outsider” candidates (though one is a golf-course-owning billionaire and the other is a U.S. senator) with a gift for biting insults. But, for weeks, they gave each other a pass. |
| Now, they can’t both win Iowa. | Now, they can’t both win Iowa. |
| So Cruz has begun to say that Trump is unserious. | So Cruz has begun to say that Trump is unserious. |
| And Trump has begun to say that Cruz is . . . Canadian. | And Trump has begun to say that Cruz is . . . Canadian. |
| “Ted Cruz: Is he a natural-born citizen?” Trump yelled during a rally in Reno, Nev., on Sunday. It was a reference to the fact that Cruz was born in Canada, though his mother is a U.S. citizen. | “Ted Cruz: Is he a natural-born citizen?” Trump yelled during a rally in Reno, Nev., on Sunday. It was a reference to the fact that Cruz was born in Canada, though his mother is a U.S. citizen. |
| The crowd yelled back: “No!” | The crowd yelled back: “No!” |
| “I don’t know,” Trump said. “Honestly, we don’t know. Who the hell knows.” | “I don’t know,” Trump said. “Honestly, we don’t know. Who the hell knows.” |
| [The conservative media’s civil war over Ted Cruz ‘birtherism’] | [The conservative media’s civil war over Ted Cruz ‘birtherism’] |
| Trump has continued to bring up Cruz’s eligibility on the campaign trail this week, but he said in an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett on Wednesday that he will not bring the issue up at the debate. | Trump has continued to bring up Cruz’s eligibility on the campaign trail this week, but he said in an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett on Wednesday that he will not bring the issue up at the debate. |
| Cruz, in the past, had seemed reluctant to attack Trump — perhaps hoping that he would inherit Trump’s anti-establishment coalition if Trump himself faded. Now, the Texas Republican seems to have given up on that — or, perhaps, he is trying to hasten Trump’s fade a bit faster. | Cruz, in the past, had seemed reluctant to attack Trump — perhaps hoping that he would inherit Trump’s anti-establishment coalition if Trump himself faded. Now, the Texas Republican seems to have given up on that — or, perhaps, he is trying to hasten Trump’s fade a bit faster. |
| “The Donald seems to be a little bit rattled,” he said on WRKO in Boston. | “The Donald seems to be a little bit rattled,” he said on WRKO in Boston. |
| In recent days, for example, Cruz took direct aim at Trump on several fronts: tying the billionaire to Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, questioning his ability to win a general election, casting doubt on his ability to serve as commander in chief and disputing his “New York values.” (Trump has responded by saying he’s proud to have “New York values,” citing the city’s sacrifices on Sept. 11, 2001). | In recent days, for example, Cruz took direct aim at Trump on several fronts: tying the billionaire to Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, questioning his ability to win a general election, casting doubt on his ability to serve as commander in chief and disputing his “New York values.” (Trump has responded by saying he’s proud to have “New York values,” citing the city’s sacrifices on Sept. 11, 2001). |
| Cruz also took aim at Trump’s competence. “Does a potential commander in chief know what the nuclear triad is, much less is he or she prepared and able to strengthen it and keep this country safe?” Cruz asked on “The Hugh Hewitt Show.” | Cruz also took aim at Trump’s competence. “Does a potential commander in chief know what the nuclear triad is, much less is he or she prepared and able to strengthen it and keep this country safe?” Cruz asked on “The Hugh Hewitt Show.” |
| In a Republican debate last month, Trump was asked about the nuclear triad — the submarines, bombers and land-based missiles that could deliver the nation’s nuclear weapons — and had trouble with the explanation. | In a Republican debate last month, Trump was asked about the nuclear triad — the submarines, bombers and land-based missiles that could deliver the nation’s nuclear weapons — and had trouble with the explanation. |
| For Cruz, the risk is that he will provoke Trump’s gift for insults: The billionaire has managed to isolate his rivals’ weaknesses and call them out in a way that sticks. | For Cruz, the risk is that he will provoke Trump’s gift for insults: The billionaire has managed to isolate his rivals’ weaknesses and call them out in a way that sticks. |
| During a campaign rally in Pensacola, Fla., on Wednesday night, Trump bragged that rivals who have attacked him in the past have seen their poll numbers tank, sometimes to the point of being pushed out of the race. | During a campaign rally in Pensacola, Fla., on Wednesday night, Trump bragged that rivals who have attacked him in the past have seen their poll numbers tank, sometimes to the point of being pushed out of the race. |
| “Now, we have another debate tomorrow. They’ll all be attacking me — like, you know, they attack. Whatever. Right? Whatever. What-ever,” Trump said, pursing his lips and shaking his head, as some in the crowd started chanting: We want Trump! We want Trump! | “Now, we have another debate tomorrow. They’ll all be attacking me — like, you know, they attack. Whatever. Right? Whatever. What-ever,” Trump said, pursing his lips and shaking his head, as some in the crowd started chanting: We want Trump! We want Trump! |
| “They attack,” Trump said, “but they don’t understand that unlike this country, I attack back.” | “They attack,” Trump said, “but they don’t understand that unlike this country, I attack back.” |
| [Still don’t think Donald Trump can win? This chart should convince you.] | [Still don’t think Donald Trump can win? This chart should convince you.] |
| Cruz may also hear criticism from Trump and the other candidates over a loans from Citibank and Goldman Sachs, which helped him finance his run for the Senate in 2012. The loans themselves were not against campaign-finance rules, but Cruz failed to disclose them in his campaign filings at the time. The loan was first reported by the New York Times. Cruz has said it was an inadvertent oversight. | |
| Thursday’s main-event debate will be the smallest of this crowded campaign so far: just seven candidates onstage, down from the high of 11 during a debate in September. | Thursday’s main-event debate will be the smallest of this crowded campaign so far: just seven candidates onstage, down from the high of 11 during a debate in September. |
| Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), the libertarian-leaning candidate who battled with Rubio and Christie over their hawkish foreign policies, is sitting this one out. Paul’s polling numbers were so low, he was relegated to the undercard debate. He then refused to show up at all, saying he was not running an undercard kind of campaign. He also has asked Fox to reconsider and put him on the main stage. | |
| Of the others on the main stage, the candidate under the most attack might be Rubio, who has tried to run in both the outsider and insider “lanes” of this campaign and angered the candidates in both. | Of the others on the main stage, the candidate under the most attack might be Rubio, who has tried to run in both the outsider and insider “lanes” of this campaign and angered the candidates in both. |
| Christie, in particular, has portrayed Rubio as a truant schoolboy because of Rubio’s frequent absences during Senate votes. | Christie, in particular, has portrayed Rubio as a truant schoolboy because of Rubio’s frequent absences during Senate votes. |
| Rubio, who tends to counterpunch with policy criticisms, has said Christie’s record on guns, education and Planned Parenthood doesn’t align with modern conservatives. | Rubio, who tends to counterpunch with policy criticisms, has said Christie’s record on guns, education and Planned Parenthood doesn’t align with modern conservatives. |
| [Christie hits back: Rubio can’t ‘slime his way to the White House’] | [Christie hits back: Rubio can’t ‘slime his way to the White House’] |
| Kasich has shown surprisingly good results in New Hampshire lately, raising his hopes that he will be the “establishment” candidate who survives to take on Trump and Cruz. | Kasich has shown surprisingly good results in New Hampshire lately, raising his hopes that he will be the “establishment” candidate who survives to take on Trump and Cruz. |
| Now, his job will be to improve upon past debate performances, in which Kasich often seemed peevish or too aggressive. After a November debate, when the Ohio governor repeatedly jumped in to answer or interject thoughts about other candidates’ questions, a focus group convened by Frank Luntz gave him one of the lowest scores the Republican strategist had ever seen. | Now, his job will be to improve upon past debate performances, in which Kasich often seemed peevish or too aggressive. After a November debate, when the Ohio governor repeatedly jumped in to answer or interject thoughts about other candidates’ questions, a focus group convened by Frank Luntz gave him one of the lowest scores the Republican strategist had ever seen. |
| “Look, I don’t know what I’m going to do tomorrow,” Kasich said on Wednesday. “I will tell you that we’re second in New Hampshire and doing very well.” | “Look, I don’t know what I’m going to do tomorrow,” Kasich said on Wednesday. “I will tell you that we’re second in New Hampshire and doing very well.” |
| After taking (and dodging) a few more questions about what might come up, Kasich grinned and commented on the very process of politics. | After taking (and dodging) a few more questions about what might come up, Kasich grinned and commented on the very process of politics. |
| “Most people, they get kind of loose and have fun once they lose, and everybody asks: Why didn’t they have fun before they lost?” he said. “I’m having fun right now.” | “Most people, they get kind of loose and have fun once they lose, and everybody asks: Why didn’t they have fun before they lost?” he said. “I’m having fun right now.” |
| [Who’s got the best ground game in New Hampshire? We may never know.] | [Who’s got the best ground game in New Hampshire? We may never know.] |
| Then there is Bush: once this race’s front-runner, now one of its longer shots. | Then there is Bush: once this race’s front-runner, now one of its longer shots. |
| Once again, he is hoping for a debate performance that will reset the race. That has not gone well in the past: In a previous debate where Bush badly wanted a breakout, he picked a fight over Rubio’s voting and attendance record in the Senate and provoked a damaging verbal takedown. | Once again, he is hoping for a debate performance that will reset the race. That has not gone well in the past: In a previous debate where Bush badly wanted a breakout, he picked a fight over Rubio’s voting and attendance record in the Senate and provoked a damaging verbal takedown. |
| This time, Bush seems determined not to overthink it. | This time, Bush seems determined not to overthink it. |
| He may be overthinking it anyway. | He may be overthinking it anyway. |
| “We don’t have really much of a strategy. It’s just stop thinking of it as a debate. Don’t call it a debate — that gets me thinking the wrong way,” Bush said in Iowa this week. It’s a performance, it’s a chance for me to express my views about things that I think are important for our country. There may be some comparin’ and contrastin’ -- I’ve noticed that since January started that the fur is starting to fly that people are starting to go after each other a bit.” | “We don’t have really much of a strategy. It’s just stop thinking of it as a debate. Don’t call it a debate — that gets me thinking the wrong way,” Bush said in Iowa this week. It’s a performance, it’s a chance for me to express my views about things that I think are important for our country. There may be some comparin’ and contrastin’ -- I’ve noticed that since January started that the fur is starting to fly that people are starting to go after each other a bit.” |
| [Bush and his super PAC are on the attack – but aiming at different targets] | [Bush and his super PAC are on the attack – but aiming at different targets] |
| Bush arrived in Charleston Wednesday with his wife and three grown children in tow, all of whom plan to be in attendance on Thursday night. He will keep to his predebate ritual of attending a Catholic Mass and having lunch with his family, aides said. | Bush arrived in Charleston Wednesday with his wife and three grown children in tow, all of whom plan to be in attendance on Thursday night. He will keep to his predebate ritual of attending a Catholic Mass and having lunch with his family, aides said. |
| Ahead of the debate, Bush once again seemed to telegraph his plans, telling Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker in an interview that if a question posed to him begins with something like “You’ve said Trump isn’t a serious candidate,” “I’m going to go after him,” Bush said. “The problem is there’s too much low-hanging fruit.” | Ahead of the debate, Bush once again seemed to telegraph his plans, telling Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker in an interview that if a question posed to him begins with something like “You’ve said Trump isn’t a serious candidate,” “I’m going to go after him,” Bush said. “The problem is there’s too much low-hanging fruit.” |
| The other candidate in the main debate will be retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, whose oddball campaign — which included days-long debates about whether, as a young man, he really stabbed a friend in the stomach or menaced his mother with a hammer — now seems to be fading. | The other candidate in the main debate will be retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, whose oddball campaign — which included days-long debates about whether, as a young man, he really stabbed a friend in the stomach or menaced his mother with a hammer — now seems to be fading. |
| Carson has indicated that he will try to seem more aggressive during the debate — with a little “pep in my step” — with hopes of reversing the impression that he is too weak to be the president. “You’re going to see me not being quite so polite as to never say anything unless somebody asks me something,” Carson told CNN Tuesday. | Carson has indicated that he will try to seem more aggressive during the debate — with a little “pep in my step” — with hopes of reversing the impression that he is too weak to be the president. “You’re going to see me not being quite so polite as to never say anything unless somebody asks me something,” Carson told CNN Tuesday. |
| [After a dramatic fade, can Ben Carson hang on in Iowa?] | [After a dramatic fade, can Ben Carson hang on in Iowa?] |
| There will be just three candidates in the “undercard” debate that begins at 6 p.m. — a group that, as the Iowa caucuses approach, seems to be running out of straws to grasp. | There will be just three candidates in the “undercard” debate that begins at 6 p.m. — a group that, as the Iowa caucuses approach, seems to be running out of straws to grasp. |
| The three will include the last two winners of the Iowa caucuses, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. Both have tried to re-create their magic — which, in both cases, involved a surge among evangelical voters — without success. | The three will include the last two winners of the Iowa caucuses, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. Both have tried to re-create their magic — which, in both cases, involved a surge among evangelical voters — without success. |
| The third candidate in the early evening will be former tech executive Carly Fiorina, whose sharp performance in the first undercard propelled her briefly into the top tier of candidates. But now, she is back to where she started. | The third candidate in the early evening will be former tech executive Carly Fiorina, whose sharp performance in the first undercard propelled her briefly into the top tier of candidates. But now, she is back to where she started. |
| Jose A. DelReal, Sean Sullivan and Ed O’Keefe contributed to this report. | Jose A. DelReal, Sean Sullivan and Ed O’Keefe contributed to this report. |