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Clinton v Sanders: Who came out on top? Clinton v Sanders: The rhetoric and the stakes rise
(about 5 hours later)
This was a spirited, substantive debate, much more heated than the last three Democratic debates but still more civil than anything we've seen on the Republican side. Two weeks until the Iowa caucuses and the American media has been full of headlines about Clinton campaign drama. Is this a repeat of 2008 when Hillary Clinton underestimated her opponent, Barack Obama, and ended up in third place?
Bernie Sanders was on the offensive, buoyed by his recent gains in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton still has a double-digit lead nationally and, by most accounts in the US media, won the debate. Should the Clinton campaign have pushed for more debates, a format she excels at, instead of settling for six debates, most of which are taking place at times when viewership is low, like the last debate this Sunday night, on a long holiday weekend?
Martin O'Malley was nowhere to be seen, but Mrs Clinton and Mr Sanders worked hard to sharpen the differences between them, particularly on gun control and healthcare. There is cause for concern. Mrs Clinton's main challenger Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has closed in on her in Iowa, the state that kicks off the nomination race with caucuses on 1 February. The race is now too close to call. In New Hampshire, which will hold its primary on 9 February, Mr Sanders is leading in the polls.
On foreign policy, the contrast was down to Mrs Clinton's experience as secretary of state and deep knowledge of the issues. There has been much hand-wringing by unnamed aides and allies quoted in newspaper articles about the unlikely challenge mounted by a 74-year-old socialist. But as early in the race as July last year, a senior Clinton aide told me the campaign was already looking at the possibility that the former secretary of state could lose Iowa and New Hampshire (which borders Vermont) and was working on building a firewall in the southern states to stop Mr Sanders in his tracks.
Mr Sanders' call for "aggressively" normalising ties with Iran was odd and out of sync, not only with geopolitics but also with the mood in the US. Losing ground
One Clinton aide called her performance solid, while another said Mr Sanders was making things up as he went along because he gave details of his healthcare plan only two hours before the debate. Mrs Clinton still has a two-digit lead in the national polls and if she is nervous about her vulnerability in the two early voting states, she did not show it on the debate stage. She came prepared to emphasise her differences with Mr Sanders in a debate that was the most heated so far on the Democratic side.
The Vermont senator is gaining momentum in the north but is struggling to connect with the African-American community and minorities. The two clashed often on the issues of healthcare, gun control and Mrs Clinton's ties to Wall Street. The third candidate, former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley was barely a blip on the radar.
In the spin room after the debate, one of the surrogates for the Sanders campaign was African American hip-hop artist Killer Mike, who gave a passionate defence of the 74-year-old socialist. But Mrs Clinton did not try to match Mr Sanders' populism or lurch further left out of fear that she was losing ground (except on gun control, where she has been to the left of Mr Sanders since the start of the race).
But it'll take more than that to win the vote in the South. Her performance was anchored in pragmatism and incremental change. Mostly it was about continuity: She embraced President Barack Obama's legacy warmly and repeatedly.
The president's approval rating among Democrats stands at 78%.
By tying herself to the president, Mrs Clinton was also reinforcing her ties with African-American voters, a crucial constituency for her.
Her performance seemed designed to imply confidence that she would win the nomination while appealing to voters in the general election in November.
But Mr Sanders also made a very strong pitch, describing his campaign as "a political revolution to not only elect the president, but to transform this country".
When he was asked about his troubles connecting with minorities, especially African-Americans, Mr Sanders said that the more they got to know him, the more they would support him.
"We have the momentum, we're on a path to a victory," he said.
But it will be hard climb, because of the firewall that Mrs Clinton worked hard to build in the south, starting with South Carolina (SC), the first state to vote in the south on 27 February.
The Clintons have deep ties and a long history in the south. In an election where "New York values" have been hurled at brash Republican candidate Donald Trump as an insult, Mr Sanders' Brooklyn upbringing does not sit well with everybody in this area.
"Bernie is a great guy, he's got a great personality, but Hillary Clinton will win South Carolina, no doubt about it," said Don Baker, a Charleston architect who was attending a predominantly African American Democratic Party gathering on Saturday where all three candidates spoke.
"Her mannerisms are more likeable to southerners. Bernie is too straight to it."
Chairman of the SC Democratic party, Jaime Harrison, agreed without taking sides in the race.
"Unless Bernie figures out how to pull African-American women to his side, it's going to be tough," he said.
Mr Harrison urged Mr Sanders to visit salons, barbershops and churches to connect with voters.
On 1 March, 12 southern states will hold their primaries and the black vote will be key for Mrs Clinton. In between, Nevada will hold its caucuses, a state where she has been heavily courting the Latino vote.
Even if Mr Sanders does not make it to victory, his campaign has managed to inject energy and enthusiasm into the race, especially among young voters. Mrs Clinton's aides insist they always wanted a competitive race.
But there has been something unpredictable in this race, on both sides. After having been dismissed as a joke, with predictions that his campaign would implode, Republican candidate Donald Trump is not only leading in the national polls, but doing so with a double-digit lead.
On both extremes of the political spectrum, Mr Trump and Mr Sanders are connecting with a deep-seated anxiety among voters. Although their messages and solutions are polar opposites, their appeal to disillusioned Americans has helped fill huge auditoriums with supporters, more than all the other candidates combined.
Victories for Mr Trump and Mr Sanders in either or both of the early states could create a momentum for the more revolutionary, angry mood in both parties.
Clinton aides did not want to speculate on the impact this dynamic could have on the former secretary of state's campaign.
In the spin room after the Charleston debate, Mrs Clinton's campaign manager Robby Mook said they were working hard for every vote and were ''ready to go deep'' in the map to win the nomination.
For now, all the focus is on Iowa and New Hampshire, with both Mrs Clinton and Mr Sanders campaigning relentlessly in the two states in the next two weeks.