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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| UK unemployment falls but wage growth weakens | UK unemployment falls but wage growth weakens |
| (7 months later) | |
| Wage growth slowed in November to its lowest rate since February 2015 in the latest signal that the pace of Britain’s recovery is rapidly cooling down. | Wage growth slowed in November to its lowest rate since February 2015 in the latest signal that the pace of Britain’s recovery is rapidly cooling down. |
| Wages grew at 2% in the three months to November, down from 2.4% in the previous month, after breaking through the 3% barrier in the summer. | Wages grew at 2% in the three months to November, down from 2.4% in the previous month, after breaking through the 3% barrier in the summer. |
| The weaker picture came despite a fall in unemployment to 5.1%, its lowest since 2006 and a drop from 5.2% in October. Employment was buoyant, reaching a new record with the number of people in work hitting 31.39 million, 74% of the workforce. | The weaker picture came despite a fall in unemployment to 5.1%, its lowest since 2006 and a drop from 5.2% in October. Employment was buoyant, reaching a new record with the number of people in work hitting 31.39 million, 74% of the workforce. |
| Inflation remains low at just 0.2%, allowing living standards to continue rising, on average. But analysts said the trend for weakening wage growth reinforced their view that the Bank of England will delay increasing interest rates until later in the year, or in 2017. | Inflation remains low at just 0.2%, allowing living standards to continue rising, on average. But analysts said the trend for weakening wage growth reinforced their view that the Bank of England will delay increasing interest rates until later in the year, or in 2017. |
| The Bank’s governor, Mark Carney, on Tuesday ruled out any early rise, saying UK growth was still too weak and pointing to recent turmoil in the global financial markets. | The Bank’s governor, Mark Carney, on Tuesday ruled out any early rise, saying UK growth was still too weak and pointing to recent turmoil in the global financial markets. |
| Ruth Miller, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Today’s UK labour market figures showed a further slowdown in wage growth, suggesting that an interest rate hike is still some way off.” | Ruth Miller, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Today’s UK labour market figures showed a further slowdown in wage growth, suggesting that an interest rate hike is still some way off.” |
| John Philpott, director of the Jobs Economist consultancy, said the Bank of England committee that sets interest rates needed to go back to the drawing board to explain how a rise in employment can be coupled with a fall in wage growth. | John Philpott, director of the Jobs Economist consultancy, said the Bank of England committee that sets interest rates needed to go back to the drawing board to explain how a rise in employment can be coupled with a fall in wage growth. |
| He said: “We need to rethink what we mean by a ‘tight labour market’. Unemployment may now have to fall to a very low rate, perhaps below 4%, before we see strong upward pressure on pay.” | He said: “We need to rethink what we mean by a ‘tight labour market’. Unemployment may now have to fall to a very low rate, perhaps below 4%, before we see strong upward pressure on pay.” |
| Average weekly wages remain £27 below their 2007 peak of £490, the Resolution Foundation said, emphasising the inability to translate a strong demand for workers into a boost in take-home pay. | Average weekly wages remain £27 below their 2007 peak of £490, the Resolution Foundation said, emphasising the inability to translate a strong demand for workers into a boost in take-home pay. |
| George Osborne welcomed an influx of women and young people to the workforce over the past year. “Employment is at its highest rate in our history; there are more women in work than ever before and 130,000 fewer young people unemployed than this time last year,” he said. | George Osborne welcomed an influx of women and young people to the workforce over the past year. “Employment is at its highest rate in our history; there are more women in work than ever before and 130,000 fewer young people unemployed than this time last year,” he said. |
| “What’s more, full-time employees make up the majority of the increase in employment over the past year and wages are growing even before our new ‘national living wage’ takes effect in April. | “What’s more, full-time employees make up the majority of the increase in employment over the past year and wages are growing even before our new ‘national living wage’ takes effect in April. |
| But the chancellor added: “As I have said, there is a dangerous cocktail of new risks this year in the global economy, so it’s more important than ever we must stick to our plan to fix the public finances and move Britain back into the black.” | But the chancellor added: “As I have said, there is a dangerous cocktail of new risks this year in the global economy, so it’s more important than ever we must stick to our plan to fix the public finances and move Britain back into the black.” |
| The jobless total dropped to 1.68 million, 99,000 fewer than for June to August 2015 and 239,000 fewer than for a year earlier. | The jobless total dropped to 1.68 million, 99,000 fewer than for June to August 2015 and 239,000 fewer than for a year earlier. |
| Employment growth accelerated, with the 267,000 quarterly rise in the three months to November up from a 207,000 increase in October. | Employment growth accelerated, with the 267,000 quarterly rise in the three months to November up from a 207,000 increase in October. |
| The Office for National Statistics said: “The employment rate has been generally increasing since early 2012 and, for the latest time period, September to November 2015, it reached a record high of 74.0%.” | The Office for National Statistics said: “The employment rate has been generally increasing since early 2012 and, for the latest time period, September to November 2015, it reached a record high of 74.0%.” |
| The ONS prefers to measure wages using a rolling three-month figure to offset volatile pay awards, but it also publishes month-on-month wages figure that rose to 2.1% from 1.6% in the previous month, excluding bonuses. Adjusted for inflation, regular pay increased by 1.9% and total pay increased by 2.1% | The ONS prefers to measure wages using a rolling three-month figure to offset volatile pay awards, but it also publishes month-on-month wages figure that rose to 2.1% from 1.6% in the previous month, excluding bonuses. Adjusted for inflation, regular pay increased by 1.9% and total pay increased by 2.1% |
| Taking a longer view, the ONS said average total pay for employees increased from £311 a week in January 2000 to £494 a week in November 2015; an increase of 58.7%. Over the same period, prices have increased by 39.3%. | Taking a longer view, the ONS said average total pay for employees increased from £311 a week in January 2000 to £494 a week in November 2015; an increase of 58.7%. Over the same period, prices have increased by 39.3%. |
| A rise in the number of people gaining full-time employment was coupled with a jump in the number of self-employed to a new record of 4.6 million. | A rise in the number of people gaining full-time employment was coupled with a jump in the number of self-employed to a new record of 4.6 million. |
| David Kern, the chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the UK was blessed with a ”vibrant and dynamic labour market” but warned of continuing problems for young people in gaining a job. “While the youth unemployment rate is now lower than it was before the 2008 downturn, it is still much higher than the national average,” he said. | David Kern, the chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the UK was blessed with a ”vibrant and dynamic labour market” but warned of continuing problems for young people in gaining a job. “While the youth unemployment rate is now lower than it was before the 2008 downturn, it is still much higher than the national average,” he said. |
| The youth jobless rate remained almost two and a half times the average unemployment rate after nudging down to 13.7% from 13.8% in October. | The youth jobless rate remained almost two and a half times the average unemployment rate after nudging down to 13.7% from 13.8% in October. |