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Islamic State bombing sends a message to Turkey Islamic State bombing sends a message to Turkey
(about 17 hours later)
ISTANBUL — A week before Nabil Fadli blew himself up among a group of German tourists, killing 10 people in Turkey’s largest city, he walked into an immigration office and registered as a Syrian refugee.ISTANBUL — A week before Nabil Fadli blew himself up among a group of German tourists, killing 10 people in Turkey’s largest city, he walked into an immigration office and registered as a Syrian refugee.
Dressed in a black jacket and black-and-white sneakers, the 28-year-old removed his woolen hat for photographs. He gave his fingerprints. Dressed in a black jacket and black-and-white sneakers, the ­28-year-old removed his woolen hat for photographs. He gave his fingerprints.
This seemingly purposeful encounter with Turkish authorities appears counterintuitive for a soon-to-be suicide bomber in a nation awash with undocumented Syrians. But analysts say it may have been aimed at fomenting a backlash in a country that is home to more than 2 million refugees.This seemingly purposeful encounter with Turkish authorities appears counterintuitive for a soon-to-be suicide bomber in a nation awash with undocumented Syrians. But analysts say it may have been aimed at fomenting a backlash in a country that is home to more than 2 million refugees.
Their presence is just one of many pressure points in Turkey that the militants can focus on if they try to create chaos. In the country’s southeast, where separatists have fought a decades-long war for autonomy for Turkey’s ethnic Kurds, violence has also been escalating. Their presence is just one of many pressure points in Turkey that the militants can exploit if they try to create chaos. In the country’s southeast, where separatists have fought a long war for autonomy for Turkey’s ethnic Kurds, violence has also been escalating.
“Turkey is now very vulnerable,” said Nihat Ali Ozcan, a security expert at the Ankara-based think tank Tepav. The Islamic State can exacerbate existing instability and “push Turkey toward ethnic or sectarian war,” he said. “Turkey is now very vulnerable,” said Nihat Ali Ozcan, a security expert at the think tank Tepav, based in Ankara. The Islamic State can exacerbate existing instability and “push Turkey toward ethnic or sectarian war,” he said.
[Deadly suicide blast in Istanbul tourist area is linked to the Islamic State][Deadly suicide blast in Istanbul tourist area is linked to the Islamic State]
Since the Islamic State’s formation two years ago, the militants and the Turkish state have avoided direct confrontation.Since the Islamic State’s formation two years ago, the militants and the Turkish state have avoided direct confrontation.
The Islamic State has largely steered clear of provoking Turkey as it used the country as a logistical base, ferrying fighters and smuggling oil and supplies across its border with Syria. The Islamic State has largely steered clear of provoking Turkey as it uses the country as a logistical base, ferrying fighters and smuggling oil and supplies across its border with Syria.
Meanwhile, the Turkish state was accused of not doing enough to clamp down on the group.Meanwhile, the Turkish state was accused of not doing enough to clamp down on the group.
“Now the picture has changed,” Ozcan said. The Islamic State is steadily losing ground in Syria and Iraq, where the militants were pushed out of the western city of Ramadi last month.“Now the picture has changed,” Ozcan said. The Islamic State is steadily losing ground in Syria and Iraq, where the militants were pushed out of the western city of Ramadi last month.
A bombing in the southern Turkish town of Suruc in July prompted a shift. Turkey vowed to strike Islamic State targets and allowed the U.S.-led international coalition use of the Incirlik base in the country’s south for its air campaign. A bombing in the southern Turkish town of Suruc in July prompted a shift. Turkey vowed to strike Islamic State targets and allowed the U.S.-led international coalition the use of Incirlik air base in the country’s south for its air campaign.
But so far, attacks have not directly targeted the Turkish state, focusing instead on Kurdish or leftist gatherings. But so far, Islamic State attacks have not directly targeted the Turkish state, focusing instead on Kurdish or leftist gatherings.
A bombing at a peace rally in Ankara in October, attended largely by pro-Kurdish activists, killed 100 people — the deadliest of its kind on Turkish soil — leading Kurdish groups to criticize the government. Authorities blamed Islamic State for the attack. A bombing in Ankara at an October peace rally, attended largely by pro-Kurdish activists, killed 100 people — the deadliest of its kind on Turkish soil — leading Kurdish groups to criticize the government. Authorities blamed the Islamic State for the attack.
“ISIS has had a deliberate strategy of avoiding targeting pro-government Turks,” said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “They try to exploit existing fault lines.” “ISIS has had a deliberate strategy of avoiding targeting pro-government Turks,” said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “They try to exploit existing fault lines.”
But the Istanbul attack took aim at the country’s vital tourism industry. It came as the United States pressures Ankara to deprive the Islamic State of its last foothold on the Turkish border, a 60-mile stretch between Kilis, Turkey, and Jarabulus, Syria.But the Istanbul attack took aim at the country’s vital tourism industry. It came as the United States pressures Ankara to deprive the Islamic State of its last foothold on the Turkish border, a 60-mile stretch between Kilis, Turkey, and Jarabulus, Syria.
The bombing was a “warning” to Turkey, Cagaptay said. “They are saying we can blow people up in the middle of Istanbul, and we will if things continue on this track.” The bombing was a “warning” to Turkey, Cagaptay said. “They are saying, ‘We can blow people up in the middle of Istanbul, and we will if things continue on this track.’ ”
Turkish police estimate that there are around 3,000 individuals linked to the Islamic State inside the country’s borders, according to IHS, a firm that offers global risk analysis. A further 700 to 1,000 Turks are estimated to be fighting for the group in Iraq and Syria, it said. Turkish police estimate that there are about 3,000 individuals linked to the Islamic State inside the country’s borders, according to IHS, a firm that offers global risk analysis. An additional 700 to 1,000 Turks are estimated to be fighting for the group in Iraq and Syria, it said.
[What the Islamic State gains from the Istanbul terror attack][What the Islamic State gains from the Istanbul terror attack]
In the wake of the Istanbul attack, Turkish politicians have raised concerns about the security risk of the large Syrian refugee population, given Fadli’s refugee status. After the Istanbul attack, Turkish politicians have raised concerns about the security risk of the large Syrian refugee population, given Fadli’s refugee status.
Analysts speculated that, in a move similar to Fadli’s registration in Istanbul, the Islamic State ensured that a Syrian passport was found at the scene of one of the bombings during the Paris attacks in November, in a move to stoke discord. Analysts speculated that, in a move similar to Fadli’s registration in Istanbul, the Islamic State ensured that a Syrian passport was found at the scene of one of the bombings during the Paris attacks in November, in an attempt to stoke discord.
“There are 2 million Syrians in Turkey, these people can do anything, it’s very dangerous,” said one Turkish shopkeeper as he watched tourists lay tributes at the bomb site last week. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Turkish state had ordered a blackout on the reporting of the bombing in Istanbul. But his criticism was largely rounded at Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for allowing the radical Islamist threat to grow. “There are 2 million Syrians in Turkey. These people can do anything. It’s very dangerous,” one Turkish shopkeeper said as he watched tourists lay tributes at the bomb site last week. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Turkish state had ordered a blackout on the reporting of the bombing in Istanbul. But his criticism was largely directed at Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for allowing the radical Islamist threat to grow.
“Erdogan is the king of ISIS,” he said.“Erdogan is the king of ISIS,” he said.
In a news conference last week, Turkey’s interior minister said the government is acting against the Islamic State, detaining 220 people with suspected links to the group just in the week before the attack. In a news conference last week, Turkey’s interior minister said the government is acting against the Islamic State, detaining 220 people with suspected links to the group in the week before the Istanbul attack.
But the government still considers Kurdish separatists with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as its biggest security threat, analysts say. But the government still considers Kurdish separatists with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) its biggest security threat, analysts say.
In the wake of the Suruc bombing, Turkey also opened a new front against the PKK. Claiming that both campaigns are part of the fight against terrorism, it launched dozens of airstrikes on PKK hideouts in northern Iraq.In the wake of the Suruc bombing, Turkey also opened a new front against the PKK. Claiming that both campaigns are part of the fight against terrorism, it launched dozens of airstrikes on PKK hideouts in northern Iraq.
Following the Istanbul attack, Erdogan blamed the Islamic State, but he devoted most of his time to condemning the PKK.Following the Istanbul attack, Erdogan blamed the Islamic State, but he devoted most of his time to condemning the PKK.
Still, Turkey is increasingly fighting on two fronts. Turkish artillery has bombarded Islamic State positions in Syria and Iraq in response to the attack.Still, Turkey is increasingly fighting on two fronts. Turkish artillery has bombarded Islamic State positions in Syria and Iraq in response to the attack.
The “real war,” however, will start only when the Islamic State begins to attack the state more directly, which is likely as the United States and Turkey increasingly see eye-to-eye on Syria, Cagaptay said. “Turkey will come down with full vengeance when ISIS decides to go after government targets,” he said. The “real war,” however, will start only when the Islamic State begins to attack the state more directly, which is likely as the United States and Turkey increasingly see eye to eye on Syria, Cagaptay said. “Turkey will come down with full vengeance when ISIS decides to go after government targets,” he said.
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