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| The Bank of England is at risk of sleepwalking into a financial crisis | The Bank of England is at risk of sleepwalking into a financial crisis |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| The credibility of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England in general, and that of its governor, Mark Carney, in particular, is now seriously in question. The concern is that they may have already missed a significant downturn. Brent crude has just fallen below $28 a barrel. Commodity prices are tumbling and global markets are approaching bear territory – and there is no sign of a floor. The US and the UK are both slowing fast. But the MPC has been asleep at the wheel. | |
| Related: UK unemployment falls but wage growth weakens | Related: UK unemployment falls but wage growth weakens |
| First, there was Carney’s “forward guidance” in 2013 when he explained that the MPC intended to keep the Bank rate at 0.5%, at least until the unemployment rate fell to 7% or below. As the unemployment rate has continued to fall – to 5.1% as announced by the Office for National Statistics today – the Bank rate remains unchanged. | First, there was Carney’s “forward guidance” in 2013 when he explained that the MPC intended to keep the Bank rate at 0.5%, at least until the unemployment rate fell to 7% or below. As the unemployment rate has continued to fall – to 5.1% as announced by the Office for National Statistics today – the Bank rate remains unchanged. |
| But Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada who was hired by George Osborne on a vast salary, didn’t learn from his hopeless forward guidance missive. In August last year, at the annual shindig of central bankers organised by the Kansas City Fed at Jackson Hole in Wyoming, he said that “sustained momentum” in the UK economy and rising inflation would “likely put the decision as to when to start the process of gradual monetary policy normalisation into sharper relief around the turn of this year”. | But Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada who was hired by George Osborne on a vast salary, didn’t learn from his hopeless forward guidance missive. In August last year, at the annual shindig of central bankers organised by the Kansas City Fed at Jackson Hole in Wyoming, he said that “sustained momentum” in the UK economy and rising inflation would “likely put the decision as to when to start the process of gradual monetary policy normalisation into sharper relief around the turn of this year”. |
| The US and the UK are both slowing fast. But the Monetary Policy Committee has been asleep at the wheel | The US and the UK are both slowing fast. But the Monetary Policy Committee has been asleep at the wheel |
| But the UK economy continues to slow – and inflation hasn’t picked up at all. So this week in a speech at London University’s Queen Mary college,, the governor had to about-turn once again. “It is clear to me that since last summer,” Carney said, “progress has been insufficient along these dimensions to warrant a tightening of monetary policy.” | But the UK economy continues to slow – and inflation hasn’t picked up at all. So this week in a speech at London University’s Queen Mary college,, the governor had to about-turn once again. “It is clear to me that since last summer,” Carney said, “progress has been insufficient along these dimensions to warrant a tightening of monetary policy.” |
| Markets aren’t expecting a rate rise until at least 2017, and no longer seem to believe a word the governor says. The MPC also has a major problem with the credibility of its forecasts, which have been overly optimistic. It has shown no sign of learning from its past mistakes. For example, the committee has been forecasting increasing wage growth; in November 2014, they forecast wage growth of 3.25% for 2015 – and currently they are forecasting wage growth of 3.75% in both 2016 and 2017, rising to 4% in 2018. That isn’t going to happen. The latest data for December 2015 was 2%. | Markets aren’t expecting a rate rise until at least 2017, and no longer seem to believe a word the governor says. The MPC also has a major problem with the credibility of its forecasts, which have been overly optimistic. It has shown no sign of learning from its past mistakes. For example, the committee has been forecasting increasing wage growth; in November 2014, they forecast wage growth of 3.25% for 2015 – and currently they are forecasting wage growth of 3.75% in both 2016 and 2017, rising to 4% in 2018. That isn’t going to happen. The latest data for December 2015 was 2%. |
| Related: Davos 2016: FTSE 100 in bear market as global economic fears grow - live | Related: Davos 2016: FTSE 100 in bear market as global economic fears grow - live |
| The concern is that the MPC may well be repeating its major macro error from 2008, when it missed the Great Recession. Mervyn King argued that the UK had decoupled from the US, so didn’t spot that the slowing there would have major implications for the UK and the global economy. Carney has suggested that a slowing China is likely to have little impact on the UK, which also looks wrong. Chinese growth rates this week were the lowest for 25 years and the IMF has lowered its forecast for growth in the Chinese economy for the next two years. Even that may well be too optimistic. | The concern is that the MPC may well be repeating its major macro error from 2008, when it missed the Great Recession. Mervyn King argued that the UK had decoupled from the US, so didn’t spot that the slowing there would have major implications for the UK and the global economy. Carney has suggested that a slowing China is likely to have little impact on the UK, which also looks wrong. Chinese growth rates this week were the lowest for 25 years and the IMF has lowered its forecast for growth in the Chinese economy for the next two years. Even that may well be too optimistic. |
| It is hard to identify when a country is entering a downturn. The UK economy went into recession in the second quarter of 2008, but the first estimate in July 2008 was for quarterly growth of +0.2%. The true figure was -0.6%. The “cocktail of threats” identified by the chancellor already appears to be hitting the UK. The optimistic autumn statement is already toast. The slowing of the world’s biggest economy caused big problems in 2008 – and the concern is that the slowing of its second largest may cause a comparable downdraught in 2016. I suspect the next move of the MPC will be a cut rather than a rise. It may even have to go negative. | It is hard to identify when a country is entering a downturn. The UK economy went into recession in the second quarter of 2008, but the first estimate in July 2008 was for quarterly growth of +0.2%. The true figure was -0.6%. The “cocktail of threats” identified by the chancellor already appears to be hitting the UK. The optimistic autumn statement is already toast. The slowing of the world’s biggest economy caused big problems in 2008 – and the concern is that the slowing of its second largest may cause a comparable downdraught in 2016. I suspect the next move of the MPC will be a cut rather than a rise. It may even have to go negative. |