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Assessing the Road to the Syrian Peace Talks Assessing the Road to the Syrian Peace Talks
(about 11 hours later)
UNITED NATIONS — Diplomats have been working nonstop this week to try to set the groundwork for Syrian peace talks that they hope to begin on Monday in Geneva. On Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, met in Zurich to discuss the matter, but the meeting broke up inconclusively. UNITED NATIONS — Diplomats have been working nonstop this week to set the groundwork for Syrian peace talks that were scheduled to, but will not, begin on Monday in Geneva. On Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, met in Zurich to discuss the matter, but the meeting broke up inconclusively. On Thursday, Mr. Kerry said that the talks would take place soon, delayed by a day or two, but that the rivals would not sit in the same room. It was a stark measure of the gulf between them.
Q. Why is it so hard to get the talks started?Q. Why is it so hard to get the talks started?
A. The latest hurdle is to decide who should represent the opposition. A coalition of disparate rebel and civilian opposition groups, with blessings from Saudi Arabia, insists that it alone can represent the opposition. Russia and Iran, allies of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, are not keen to see a united opposition bloc and want to add people who they say represent a broader section of society — but who the Saudi-backed group sees as closer to Mr. Assad’s government — along with Kurdish fighters, to whom a crucial backer, Turkey, objects. A. The latest hurdle is to decide who should represent the opposition. A coalition of disparate rebel and civilian opposition groups, with blessings from Saudi Arabia, insists that it alone can do so. Russia and Iran, allies of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, are not eager to see a united opposition bloc. They want to add groups that they say represent a broader section of society, but that the Saudi-backed coalition sees as closer to Mr. Assad’s government. Frederic C. Hof, a fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former Obama administration official who has called for greater American aid to the rebels, described the groups as “Potemkin opponents of the Assad regime.”
Diplomats say the United States and Russia are hoping to get the talks started soon, if not as early as Monday. Whether they can get their regional partners on board is another matter. At the moment, both sides are wary of the other trying to load the conference in their allies’ favor. Russia and Iran also want to add certain Kurdish representatives, an idea that is anathema to Turkey, a crucial backer of the opposition.
As long as the slate of attendees remains unclear, the Monday start date for the talks is still in jeopardy. The push to have the talks is driven by both hope and fear: hope because the regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran have, in principle, agreed to a road map for talks, and fear because a new dispute between the two countries could topple the negotiations altogether. The apprehension was voiced, albeit diplomatically, by the European Union foreign minister, Federica Mogherini, in a Twitter post this week: “Window of opportunity won’t be open forever. We cannot miss this chance.”
The slate of attendees is still unclear.
Mr. Kerry confirmed Thursday that there would be a delay, but played down its importance. “When you say a delay, it may be a day or two for invitations, but there is not going to be a fundamental delay,” he told reporters in Davos, Switzerland, after meeting with the United Nations mediator for Syria, Staffan de Mistura.
Q. What exactly can be achieved around the negotiating table?Q. What exactly can be achieved around the negotiating table?
A. The talks, if and when they start, were originally aimed at getting representatives of the Syrian government and the opposition to discuss a broad national cease-fire and negotiate a political transition, ending with elections. Those goals have been tamped down. A. The talks, if and when they start, were originally aimed at getting representatives of the Syrian government and the opposition to discuss a broad national cease-fire and to negotiate a political transition, ending with elections. Those goals have been tamped down.
Diplomats now say they have more modest goals: a reduction in the fighting, the ability to deliver food and medicines to besieged towns, and the opportunity to evacuate the wounded, starving and sick. Diplomats now speak of more modest goals: a reduction in the fighting, the ability to deliver food and medicines to besieged towns, and the opportunity to evacuate the wounded, starving and sick.
Whether the regional powers will go along even with that limited agenda remains a mystery. Saudi Arabia, which has long sought the Mr. Assad’s exit, is seen as the most resistant. Without assurance that the Syrian leader will step down as part of the transition, said Philip H. Gordon, a former White House adviser on Syria and now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, it is unclear whether the opposition and its principal backer in the region, Saudi Arabia, will agree even to such so-called confidence-building measures. Whether the regional powers will go along with even that limited agenda remains a mystery. Saudi Arabia, which has long sought Mr. Assad’s exit, is seen as the most resistant. Without assurance that the Syrian leader will step down as part of the transition, said Philip H. Gordon, a former White House adviser on Syria and now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, it is unclear whether the opposition and its principal backer in the region, Saudi Arabia, will agree even to so-called confidence-building measures.
“They need some clarity on Assad before they are willing to de-escalate the conflict or negotiate interim steps,” Mr. Gordon said. Mr. Kerry is due to meet with Saudi officials on Saturday. “They need some clarity on Assad before they are willing to de-escalate the conflict or negotiate interim steps,” Mr. Gordon said.
Q. Who are the dueling sets of opposition delegates?Q. Who are the dueling sets of opposition delegates?
A. One group, selected last month at a meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, includes antigovernment fighters and civilian political figures. The civilians are drawn mainly from the exile dissidents and businesspeople who have represented the opposition at international conferences from the beginning. It has the backing of Washington as well as Riyadh. A. One group, selected last month at a meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, includes antigovernment fighters and civilian political figures. The civilians are drawn mainly from the exile dissidents and businesspeople who have represented the opposition at international conferences from the beginning. It also has the backing of Washington.
Prominent positions in the Riyadh group, the Syrian High Negotiations Committee, were given to Asaad al-Zoubi, a defected army colonel who leads United States-backed nationalist fighters in southern Syria, and Mohammad Alloush, a representative of the Army of Islam, a large Islamist faction that is powerful in the insurgent-held Damascus suburbs. Prominent positions in the group, the Syrian High Negotiations Committee, were given to Asaad al-Zoubi, a defected army colonel who leads United States-backed nationalist fighters in southern Syria, and Mohammad Alloush, a representative of the Army of Islam, a large Islamist faction that is powerful in the insurgent-held Damascus suburbs.
The other group, calling itself the Democratic Council of Syria, consists mainly of Kurdish organizations and secular, nonviolent opposition groups. It includes dissidents who have spent years in jail for opposing the Assad government. Some, but not all, of its members are on yet another list of opposition delegates proposed by Russia, by far Syria’s most powerful ally. Russia wants several additional participants, including one former member of Mr. Assad’s cabinet. The Riyadh-backed group objects.
The Riyadh group objects to some of the members of the council, like a representative of the main Kurdish militia, the Y.P.G., which controls large portions of territory in the northeast and works closely with the United States fighting the Islamic State. Its objection is that the Kurds are not directly fighting Mr. Assad’s government. It also objects to others on Russia’s list who belong to officially tolerated opposition groups and have even served in Mr. Assad’s cabinet. The Riyadh group objects to the inclusion of representatives of the main Kurdish militia, the Y.P.G., which controls large portions of territory in the northeast and works closely with the United States in fighting the Islamic State. Its objection is that the Kurds are not directly fighting Mr. Assad’s government.
Q. What are their demands? The Riyadh group insists on being the sole delegation. In an interview on Thursday, Mr. Alloush, who was named as the group’s chief negotiator, said the opposition was willing to welcome other members under its umbrella, but not to sit alongside a second opposition delegation approved by Russia.
A. The Democratic Council wants to be included as its own delegation. It argues that it represents a gray area of mostly secular Syrians who support neither Mr. Assad nor the insurgent groups and who are underrepresented, they say, in groups with backing from regional powers like Saudi Arabia. Some of the people Russia wants to include are “pro-regime,” Mr. Alloush said, “so let them be represented in the regime’s delegation.”
But the Riyadh group insists on being the sole delegation. In an interview on Thursday, Mr. Alloush, who was named as the group’s chief negotiator, said the opposition was willing to welcome other members under its umbrella, but not to sit alongside a second opposition delegation approved by Russia. Russia has insisted on several additional representatives.
Some of the people Russia wants to include are “pro-regime,” he said, “so let them be represented in the regime’s delegation.”
To be included as opposition, he said, they should agree with the Riyadh group’s main demand: the formation of a transitional government and the departure of Mr. Assad.
“Me,” he said, “I’m not in a rush to go to Geneva.”“Me,” he said, “I’m not in a rush to go to Geneva.”
United Nations diplomats say privately that they want to avoid a reprise of the last round of Syria peace talks, in January 2014. One Security Council diplomat said there would be a strong push to hold the talks in January. The United Nations mediator, Mr. de Mistura, pointedly told the Security Council that it was up to him to select participants in the talks, but he has refrained from issuing invitations until the world powers can come to an agreement.
“We don’t want stillborn talks,” said the diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the diplomatic negotiations. “But the second factor is that we want to maintain the momentum.” Q. Who will represent the government?
A. The government’s chief negotiator is the Syrian ambassador to the United Nations, Bashar al-Jaafari. He was also the government’s chief negotiator when the warring parties last met, in January 2014. There was plenty of vitriol then, and no agreement on local cease-fires.
The choice of Mr. Jaafari led one Western diplomat to wonder, “Is he there to make a show, or is he there to make concessions on behalf of the government?”
Q. What if the talks fail?Q. What if the talks fail?
A. Even as American and Russian officials press their proxies to start negotiating an end to the war in Syria, both countries are stepping up military activities, with Russia intensifying airstrikes to shore up the government of Mr. Assad and the Pentagon shipping weapons to opposition fighters. A. Even as American and Russian officials press their proxies to start negotiating an end to the war in Syria, both countries are increasing their military activities, with Russia intensifying airstrikes to strengthen the government of Mr. Assad and the Pentagon shipping weapons to opposition fighters.
The backers of both the government and the rebels are likely to continue to bolster their surrogates on the battlefield to gain the greatest leverage at the negotiating table.The backers of both the government and the rebels are likely to continue to bolster their surrogates on the battlefield to gain the greatest leverage at the negotiating table.
“The reality is that it is a recipe for continuing the conflict,” Mr. Gordon said. “Proponents of escalation on behalf of the opposition should realize that, so far, escalation has not led to regime capitulation, but has led to more escalation by Russia and Iran.” “The reality is that it is a recipe for continuing the conflict,” Mr. Gordon said.