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Litvinenko murder: it may sound brutal but the UK government has moved on Litvinenko murder: it may sound brutal but the UK government has moved on
(7 months later)
From a British diplomatic point of view, the Litvinenko affair has long been viewed as murky water under the bridge. Punishments had already been meted out in 2006 and no one in British government circles needed a high court judge to convince them that Alexander Litvinenko’s murder might have happened with Vladimir Putin’s knowledge.From a British diplomatic point of view, the Litvinenko affair has long been viewed as murky water under the bridge. Punishments had already been meted out in 2006 and no one in British government circles needed a high court judge to convince them that Alexander Litvinenko’s murder might have happened with Vladimir Putin’s knowledge.
The British government did not want Sir Robert Owen’s inquiry to be established in the first place and would certainly never have wanted its explosive findings, implicating the Russian president, to be published at a such an excruciatingly sensitive time. As brutal as it may sound, Syria, Ukraine and the state of the world economy all take priority over a decade-old death.The British government did not want Sir Robert Owen’s inquiry to be established in the first place and would certainly never have wanted its explosive findings, implicating the Russian president, to be published at a such an excruciatingly sensitive time. As brutal as it may sound, Syria, Ukraine and the state of the world economy all take priority over a decade-old death.
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As a result, the severity of Theresa May’s rhetoric in the Commons on Monday was not matched by equally strong action. The aim is to contain the argument and hope that Russia – which has plenty of its own problems, not least the rouble hitting all-time lows – will take a similar view.As a result, the severity of Theresa May’s rhetoric in the Commons on Monday was not matched by equally strong action. The aim is to contain the argument and hope that Russia – which has plenty of its own problems, not least the rouble hitting all-time lows – will take a similar view.
For now, Britain and the west find themselves cast in the role of Russia’s supplicant. Putin’s unexpected military intervention in Syria in September has transformed the political and military balance in the country. The west, probably more than Russia, wants the UN peace talks due to start in Geneva on Monday to go ahead.For now, Britain and the west find themselves cast in the role of Russia’s supplicant. Putin’s unexpected military intervention in Syria in September has transformed the political and military balance in the country. The west, probably more than Russia, wants the UN peace talks due to start in Geneva on Monday to go ahead.
Indeed there is probably no higher public policy priority in any western capital than these talks. An end to the Syrian civil war would not only end untold suffering but also relax the migratory pressures that are threatening the future of the EU and deal a blow to the Islamic State terror group which flourishes amid the chaos.Indeed there is probably no higher public policy priority in any western capital than these talks. An end to the Syrian civil war would not only end untold suffering but also relax the migratory pressures that are threatening the future of the EU and deal a blow to the Islamic State terror group which flourishes amid the chaos.
A huge amount has been invested in preparing for these talks, but the invitations have yet to be sent out by the UN. An agreement on the agenda, the composition of the opposition delegation and any preconditions that need to be met before the talks can start is proving elusive. Russia, as the sponsor of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, holds the key, and at the moment it is insisting on certain groups being present among the opposition, much to the consternation of Turkey, France and the US who say Moscow is trying to overturn an agreed process.A huge amount has been invested in preparing for these talks, but the invitations have yet to be sent out by the UN. An agreement on the agenda, the composition of the opposition delegation and any preconditions that need to be met before the talks can start is proving elusive. Russia, as the sponsor of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, holds the key, and at the moment it is insisting on certain groups being present among the opposition, much to the consternation of Turkey, France and the US who say Moscow is trying to overturn an agreed process.
The fear is that Russia does not feel truly invested in the peace talks because it feels it is winning in Syria on the ground and in the air. Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European reform, argues: “Putin is trying to trying to clear the middle ground. The aim is clear everyone off the battle field, save Daesh [another term for Isis] and Assad, and he can then say, ‘Assad may be up to his neck in blood but he is not going to come after you in your cities.’”The fear is that Russia does not feel truly invested in the peace talks because it feels it is winning in Syria on the ground and in the air. Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European reform, argues: “Putin is trying to trying to clear the middle ground. The aim is clear everyone off the battle field, save Daesh [another term for Isis] and Assad, and he can then say, ‘Assad may be up to his neck in blood but he is not going to come after you in your cities.’”
Related: Putin's disturbing message for the west: your rules don't apply
Bond adds: “Putin is trying to show the west he may not be able to solve the Syria crisis, but he can still make it worse for the west.” Recent UNHCR refugee flows show that since the Russians began their bombing campaign, the numbers moving from the targeted areas are rising sharply.Bond adds: “Putin is trying to show the west he may not be able to solve the Syria crisis, but he can still make it worse for the west.” Recent UNHCR refugee flows show that since the Russians began their bombing campaign, the numbers moving from the targeted areas are rising sharply.
Bond argues “the collateral damage to Europe of the migration crisis may not have been part of Russia’s original intentions but it is certainly quite welcome”. At the same time, Putin is making it harder for the coalition to launch independent operations by introducing a lot more anti-aircraft systems in Syria.Bond argues “the collateral damage to Europe of the migration crisis may not have been part of Russia’s original intentions but it is certainly quite welcome”. At the same time, Putin is making it harder for the coalition to launch independent operations by introducing a lot more anti-aircraft systems in Syria.
The British view is that, with existing sanctions against Russia over Ukraine retaining only fragile support in the EU, this is not the time to open another front.The British view is that, with existing sanctions against Russia over Ukraine retaining only fragile support in the EU, this is not the time to open another front.
But one suspects David Cameron has learned a painful lesson. At the outset of his premiership, he believed he had struck a strong personal relationship with Putin. There was a belief Putin was not loyal to Assad. Now there is nothing but disillusionment.But one suspects David Cameron has learned a painful lesson. At the outset of his premiership, he believed he had struck a strong personal relationship with Putin. There was a belief Putin was not loyal to Assad. Now there is nothing but disillusionment.
The prime minister is aware of the scale of Russian cybercrime, feels he was personally lied to over Ukraine and sees Putin’s defence of Assad as destructive. In future he promises he will treat Putin only with “clear eyes and a cold heart”.The prime minister is aware of the scale of Russian cybercrime, feels he was personally lied to over Ukraine and sees Putin’s defence of Assad as destructive. In future he promises he will treat Putin only with “clear eyes and a cold heart”.