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UK government borrowing falls in December | UK government borrowing falls in December |
(35 minutes later) | |
The government borrowed £7.5bn in December, £4.3bn lower than the year before, official figures show. | The government borrowed £7.5bn in December, £4.3bn lower than the year before, official figures show. |
The figure takes borrowing for the financial year to date to £74.2bn, £11bn lower than at this point in 2014. | The figure takes borrowing for the financial year to date to £74.2bn, £11bn lower than at this point in 2014. |
The running total is already above the £68.9bn forecast for the whole fiscal year by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. | The running total is already above the £68.9bn forecast for the whole fiscal year by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. |
However, government finances usually record a surplus in January as a large number of tax bills are paid then. | |
In the 2014-15 financial year, borrowing was £89.1bn. | |
The latest borrowing figures mean total public sector net debt - excluding support for public sector banks - is now £1.54 trillion, or 81.0% of GDP. | |
Chancellor George Osborne's overall plan is to eliminate the annual gap between government spending and revenue by the end of this decade. | Chancellor George Osborne's overall plan is to eliminate the annual gap between government spending and revenue by the end of this decade. |
Target | Target |
Both October and November's monthly borrowing figures had been higher than expected, leading some economists to doubt that the OBR's borrowing forecast for the current financial year would be met. | Both October and November's monthly borrowing figures had been higher than expected, leading some economists to doubt that the OBR's borrowing forecast for the current financial year would be met. |
This December's figure was lower than last year partly because last year the UK made a one-off payment to the European Union to reflect revised estimates to gross national income. | This December's figure was lower than last year partly because last year the UK made a one-off payment to the European Union to reflect revised estimates to gross national income. |
Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at analysts Capital Economics said the chancellor still looked likely to miss the OBR's target: "Today's figures left the cumulative borrowing total for the fiscal year so far at £74.2bn, above the OBR's forecast of £68.9bn for the fiscal year as a whole. | Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at analysts Capital Economics said the chancellor still looked likely to miss the OBR's target: "Today's figures left the cumulative borrowing total for the fiscal year so far at £74.2bn, above the OBR's forecast of £68.9bn for the fiscal year as a whole. |
"Granted, January typically sees a big surplus which should bring the total closer to this estimate. But borrowing still looks likely to overshoot the target this year, possibly by as much as £10.0bn." | "Granted, January typically sees a big surplus which should bring the total closer to this estimate. But borrowing still looks likely to overshoot the target this year, possibly by as much as £10.0bn." |
Market volatility | |
David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said it was still possible the chancellor would meet the target - although the latest drop in the oil price could make that harder. | |
"After November's setback, the marked improvement in December makes it likely that public finances will show an overall improvement in the current financial year, and there is a chance that the OBR's forecast made in the Autumn Statement will be met." | |
But he added there was "no room for complacency". | |
"The weaker financial sector and depleted oil and gas output mean that the UK's ability to generate tax receipts has experienced a long-term decline," Mr Kern said. | |
Conversely, Michael Martins, an economist at the Institute of Directors, said the recent volatility in the financial markets could provide a short-term boost for the government by lowering the cost of borrowing. | |
In times of market turbulence, investors often turn to government bonds, a move that lowers the interest rates payable by the government on them. |