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The Observer view on Europe’s migration problem The Observer view on Europe’s migration problem
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Europe is worth saving. But can Europe save itself? This is the existential quandary that confronts the 28 member governments of the European Union as they struggle with three linked crises that threaten to unravel the work of 70 years. One of these problems – the future of the euro and the eurozone – is in abeyance, for now, after last year’s Greek bailout. But fundamental weakness, arising from largely unaddressed high levels of indebtedness, could upset the apple cart again. There can be no doubt that the integrity of the eurozone, a totemic EU achievement, may be one of the first casualties if the current volatility in world markets triggers a lasting global economic downturn.Europe is worth saving. But can Europe save itself? This is the existential quandary that confronts the 28 member governments of the European Union as they struggle with three linked crises that threaten to unravel the work of 70 years. One of these problems – the future of the euro and the eurozone – is in abeyance, for now, after last year’s Greek bailout. But fundamental weakness, arising from largely unaddressed high levels of indebtedness, could upset the apple cart again. There can be no doubt that the integrity of the eurozone, a totemic EU achievement, may be one of the first casualties if the current volatility in world markets triggers a lasting global economic downturn.
The second crisis facing the EU is more pressing, but has yet to come to a head: the question of institutional reform and the related issue of Britain’s forthcoming in-out referendum. As we have argued here before, disenchantment with Brussels is by no means confined to Tory home county heartlands. The 2014 European parliamentary elections revealed massive, continent-wide dissatisfaction with politics as usual. But even so, nothing much changed. Partly as a result, last year saw the accelerating rise of protest parties of left and right across Europe and, in several instances, the simultaneous fragmentation of two-party consensus politics.The second crisis facing the EU is more pressing, but has yet to come to a head: the question of institutional reform and the related issue of Britain’s forthcoming in-out referendum. As we have argued here before, disenchantment with Brussels is by no means confined to Tory home county heartlands. The 2014 European parliamentary elections revealed massive, continent-wide dissatisfaction with politics as usual. But even so, nothing much changed. Partly as a result, last year saw the accelerating rise of protest parties of left and right across Europe and, in several instances, the simultaneous fragmentation of two-party consensus politics.
The shared yearning for a responsive European commission and parliament that understand the pain caused by austerity and unemployment and act to ameliorate such woes is surely something David Cameron, in pursuit of EU reform, should be able to build upon. The sad irony is that the prime minister, worried about going too far, has not gone nearly far enough, either for Eurosceptics at home or for the numerous voters, notably in eastern Europe, who agree the EU is too prescriptive and bureaucratic and want it to be more relevant to ordinary people’s lives. As matters stand, polls suggest Cameron’s mishandling of the European question is pushing Britain closer to the exit.The shared yearning for a responsive European commission and parliament that understand the pain caused by austerity and unemployment and act to ameliorate such woes is surely something David Cameron, in pursuit of EU reform, should be able to build upon. The sad irony is that the prime minister, worried about going too far, has not gone nearly far enough, either for Eurosceptics at home or for the numerous voters, notably in eastern Europe, who agree the EU is too prescriptive and bureaucratic and want it to be more relevant to ordinary people’s lives. As matters stand, polls suggest Cameron’s mishandling of the European question is pushing Britain closer to the exit.
How the third, most immediate crisis confronting Europe is resolved, if it is resolved at all, may determine whether there is still an EU for Britain to leave, at least as currently constituted. Its cause is the widening impact of unchecked mass migration, principally from Syria. Last week, Manuel Valls, France’s prime minister, became the latest leader to warn that continuing failure to agree a common asylum policy was destabilising the EU and threatened the European project in its entirety. But plans floated in Brussels to enforce community-wide refugee quotas, scrap the Dublin agreement on registering asylum seekers at the first port of entry and create an expanded force of EU border guards with the power to take control of national frontiers are deeply contentious.How the third, most immediate crisis confronting Europe is resolved, if it is resolved at all, may determine whether there is still an EU for Britain to leave, at least as currently constituted. Its cause is the widening impact of unchecked mass migration, principally from Syria. Last week, Manuel Valls, France’s prime minister, became the latest leader to warn that continuing failure to agree a common asylum policy was destabilising the EU and threatened the European project in its entirety. But plans floated in Brussels to enforce community-wide refugee quotas, scrap the Dublin agreement on registering asylum seekers at the first port of entry and create an expanded force of EU border guards with the power to take control of national frontiers are deeply contentious.
The present situation is not sustainable – meaning, at most, a couple of months. Having thrown open Germany’s borders in an act of humanitarian goodwill, Angela Merkel is struggling to cope with 1 million new refugees, with an estimated, additional 1 million on their way this year. Fairly or not, reaction to the shocking events in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, when hundreds of women were abused by men with migrant backgrounds, has underscored how socially corrosive and politically divisive unstructured immigration can be.The present situation is not sustainable – meaning, at most, a couple of months. Having thrown open Germany’s borders in an act of humanitarian goodwill, Angela Merkel is struggling to cope with 1 million new refugees, with an estimated, additional 1 million on their way this year. Fairly or not, reaction to the shocking events in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, when hundreds of women were abused by men with migrant backgrounds, has underscored how socially corrosive and politically divisive unstructured immigration can be.
Far from slowing during the winter months, the influx continues apace, with 35,000 people arriving in the first three weeks of 2016. Many suffer terribly; at least 42 people drowned off Greece on Friday. Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, whose country holds the EU presidency, said migration problems were pushing Europe to breaking point and suggested the Schengen agreement on free movement of people, which underpins the EU single market, was close to collapse. “We can’t cope with the numbers any longer. We need to get a grip on this,” he said.Far from slowing during the winter months, the influx continues apace, with 35,000 people arriving in the first three weeks of 2016. Many suffer terribly; at least 42 people drowned off Greece on Friday. Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, whose country holds the EU presidency, said migration problems were pushing Europe to breaking point and suggested the Schengen agreement on free movement of people, which underpins the EU single market, was close to collapse. “We can’t cope with the numbers any longer. We need to get a grip on this,” he said.
Rutte is right. But Merkel urging Turkey to do more to stem the flow, when last October’s initial deal with Ankara has yet to be honoured, is no solution. Hoping for a sudden Syrian peace talks breakthrough in Geneva this week seems unrealistic. Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president, is pressing for an emergency migration summit next month. This meeting could prove a turning point for Europe. If common ground cannot be found on effective, EU-wide migration controls, it seems inevitable Europe’s doors will start slamming shut – and the linked crises of a crippled single market, chronic eurozone weakness and a possible British exit will intensify.Rutte is right. But Merkel urging Turkey to do more to stem the flow, when last October’s initial deal with Ankara has yet to be honoured, is no solution. Hoping for a sudden Syrian peace talks breakthrough in Geneva this week seems unrealistic. Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president, is pressing for an emergency migration summit next month. This meeting could prove a turning point for Europe. If common ground cannot be found on effective, EU-wide migration controls, it seems inevitable Europe’s doors will start slamming shut – and the linked crises of a crippled single market, chronic eurozone weakness and a possible British exit will intensify.
EUROPE