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| Donald Trump promises ‘very powerful endorsement today' – campaign live | Donald Trump promises ‘very powerful endorsement today' – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.18pm GMT | |
| 16:18 | |
| The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui is on the Marco Rubio trail in Iowa this morning. They’ve been to Pella and to Oskaloosa so far. | |
| Here’s an elegant symmetry from Sabrina’s morning. At the Pella event, Rubio spoke about the millions spent on attack ads against him: | |
| Rubio tells Iowans over $20 million in attack ads have been spent against him: "You don't get that money from $50 grassroots donations." | |
| Then, in Oskaloosa, Rubio ran into a voter who confronted him about something she saw in one of the ads, on his record on immigration: | |
| Voter asks Rubio to clarify his work on Gang of 8. "When I'm president ... that's not the way we're going to do it," he says. | |
| The woman said she was confused by a super PAC ad attacking his immigration record. https://t.co/aSWztP2hhk | |
| Negative ads in Iowa aren’t limited to anti-Rubio Super Pacs nor even Super Pacs. The Ted Cruz campaign has taken direct aim at Donald Trump in a new ad with the tagline “Donald Trump. New York values, not ours”: | |
| Our new TV ad starts airing statewide in Iowa tomorrow... #IACaucus https://t.co/ntbfiNKtZx | |
| New study reveals that tackling improves odds to win football games. Some teams decide to try it out. https://t.co/SN1IpjfFAx | |
| 4.03pm GMT | |
| 16:03 | |
| There are a couple good new Donald Trump Twitter parody accounts going at the moment. | |
| England, France, they are taking advantage of us because our leaders have been stupid. That will change. | |
| .@TrumpRetweeps tweets out the Twitter bio of anyone @realDonaldTrump retweets. https://t.co/1WOhhxQ3VP | |
| Just a regular Joe, with a regular job. Your average white, suburbanite slob. | |
| 4.01pm GMT | |
| 16:01 | |
| Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon who ran strong for president in early November of last year, has tweeted out a vote of confidence in his candidacy that ran in the Des Moines Register, the influential news outlet serving the influential early-voting state. | |
| It’s a letter to the editor. Jim Wiese of Iowa City has “met Dr. Carson on three different occasions and I can assure you that he is a great American patriot who truly loves his country,” he writes. Click through for more. | |
| "Ben Carson has skills needed to unite Americans" https://t.co/FtIcyrn3yB via @DMRegister | |
| 3.58pm GMT | |
| 15:58 | |
| Bernie does Bernie | |
| Lucia Graves | |
| Meet the new Bernie Sanders: he’s now a real candidate, against Clinton’s robot, writes Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves: | |
| When you come at Bernie Sanders on how old he is, you’d better, as they say in Brooklyn, come correct. | |
| So when the CNN moderator sat down right next to the socialist turned real-life presidential frontrunner on Monday evening in Iowa and, after mistaking his age for 75, initially kind of half-joked – in that TV personality kind of way – that the 74-year-old senator was going on 75, well, the old man’s picked up some campaign-trail charm, now hasn’t he? | |
| “I’m GOING on 75,” came the legitimately endearing faux-exasperation. “So are you!” | |
| Then the moderator followed him across the stage at CNN’s faux-debate and purported to be tired. Sanders, as if inhabiting Larry David’s Saturday Night Live caricature because he smelled the votes a yuk away, deadpanned: “If you followed me around today, you’d be a lot more tired.” | |
| Oh, yeah, the still-a-socialist candidate also lectured tirelessly about his hard-left agenda in first-in-the-nation flyover country. “We will raise taxes,” Sanders declared. “Yes we will.” | |
| But meet the new Bernie Sanders: still lecturing, only now with a human course correction that could beat an increasingly robotic and vulnerable Hillary Clinton with less than a week to go before people actually – finally – start voting for a new American president. | |
| Read the full piece here: | |
| Related: Meet the new Bernie Sanders: he's now a real candidate, against Clinton's robot | Lucia Graves | |
| 3.39pm GMT | 3.39pm GMT |
| 15:39 | 15:39 |
| Trump has boasted of a “very powerful endorsement” today. | Trump has boasted of a “very powerful endorsement” today. |
| Could he mean South Carolina state senator Jake Knotts, who is to appear with the Donald at a rally in Lexington, S.C., on Wednesday? | Could he mean South Carolina state senator Jake Knotts, who is to appear with the Donald at a rally in Lexington, S.C., on Wednesday? |
| South Carolina is the third state to go in the American nominating bonanza. There’s not much polling in the state, but Trump has always looked strong there and the state’s conservative, pro-military but not pro-immigrant Republican electorate seems a fit with him. | South Carolina is the third state to go in the American nominating bonanza. There’s not much polling in the state, but Trump has always looked strong there and the state’s conservative, pro-military but not pro-immigrant Republican electorate seems a fit with him. |
| So who is Jake Knotts? In 2010 he called Nikki Haley, the Indian-American governor of the state, “a raghead,” the Washington Post reminds us. | So who is Jake Knotts? In 2010 he called Nikki Haley, the Indian-American governor of the state, “a raghead,” the Washington Post reminds us. |
| Trumpian to a T. | Trumpian to a T. |
| 3.23pm GMT | 3.23pm GMT |
| 15:23 | 15:23 |
| Trump outdoes himself in new polls | Trump outdoes himself in new polls |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Another day, another batch of numbers, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi: | Another day, another batch of numbers, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi: |
| And as is so often the case, the polls seem to be sending different messages about who’s up and who’s down. Here are a few words of analysis that might help you make sense of it all. | And as is so often the case, the polls seem to be sending different messages about who’s up and who’s down. Here are a few words of analysis that might help you make sense of it all. |
| 1 | 1 |
| A CNN/ORC poll out today shows Donald Trump polling at 41% nationally while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz trails at a mere 19%. | A CNN/ORC poll out today shows Donald Trump polling at 41% nationally while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz trails at a mere 19%. |
| Change: This is the highest level of support Trump has received since CNN/ORC began polling this Republican nomination. | Change: This is the highest level of support Trump has received since CNN/ORC began polling this Republican nomination. |
| Method: A random national sample of 1,002 adults contacted by telephone January 21-24 | Method: A random national sample of 1,002 adults contacted by telephone January 21-24 |
| Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points. | Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points. |
| 2 | 2 |
| Today’s Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa voters has Trump polling at 31% and Cruz at 29%. | Today’s Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa voters has Trump polling at 31% and Cruz at 29%. |
| Change: Virtually no change since their last poll earlier this month. | Change: Virtually no change since their last poll earlier this month. |
| Method: 651 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants were contacted January 18-24 by real people via landlines and cell phones. | Method: 651 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants were contacted January 18-24 by real people via landlines and cell phones. |
| Margin of error: +/- 3.8 percentage points. | Margin of error: +/- 3.8 percentage points. |
| 3 | 3 |
| A national poll from the Washington Post/ABC News gives Trump 37% of support while Cruz comes in second with 21 percent. | A national poll from the Washington Post/ABC News gives Trump 37% of support while Cruz comes in second with 21 percent. |
| Change: Trump’s support is steady with what it was a month ago. | Change: Trump’s support is steady with what it was a month ago. |
| Method: 356 Republican-leaning registered voters were contacted January 21-24 | Method: 356 Republican-leaning registered voters were contacted January 21-24 |
| Margin of error: +/- 5.5 percentage points. | Margin of error: +/- 5.5 percentage points. |
| That CNN/ORC poll might sound like the best of the bunch (decent number of respondents, low margin of error), but when you take a closer look it gets tricky. That’s because the topline numbers about Republican candidates are only based on 405 registered voters who are Republicans or Republican-leaning. Suddenly, the margin of error jumps to 5.0 percentage points. | That CNN/ORC poll might sound like the best of the bunch (decent number of respondents, low margin of error), but when you take a closer look it gets tricky. That’s because the topline numbers about Republican candidates are only based on 405 registered voters who are Republicans or Republican-leaning. Suddenly, the margin of error jumps to 5.0 percentage points. |
| That doesn’t change the fact that Trump appears to be significantly ahead of Cruz nationally (although the margin could be much narrower at 36-24) but it does show the fragility of these numbers that are based on such a small number of US voters. | That doesn’t change the fact that Trump appears to be significantly ahead of Cruz nationally (although the margin could be much narrower at 36-24) but it does show the fragility of these numbers that are based on such a small number of US voters. |
| Here’s another thing that’s worth keeping in mind: It’s easy to focus on answers to the rather simplistic (and very hypothetical) question “If the primary or caucus in your state were today, for whom would you vote?”. But it’s every bit as interesting to consider what people say when they’re asked who they definitely wouldn’t vote for and who they might vote for. | Here’s another thing that’s worth keeping in mind: It’s easy to focus on answers to the rather simplistic (and very hypothetical) question “If the primary or caucus in your state were today, for whom would you vote?”. But it’s every bit as interesting to consider what people say when they’re asked who they definitely wouldn’t vote for and who they might vote for. |
| In a write-up of their poll, the Washington Post added up respondents’ first and second choices and found that the race tightened a little, with Trump at 49% and Cruz at 39%. | In a write-up of their poll, the Washington Post added up respondents’ first and second choices and found that the race tightened a little, with Trump at 49% and Cruz at 39%. |
| One last point to keep in mind: Research has repeatedly shown that one of the best ways to predict whether someone will vote is to look at whether they have voted in the past. As Ryan Struyk at ABC points out, those Quinnipiac polling numbers look very different when you only take previous voting attendance into account. | One last point to keep in mind: Research has repeatedly shown that one of the best ways to predict whether someone will vote is to look at whether they have voted in the past. As Ryan Struyk at ABC points out, those Quinnipiac polling numbers look very different when you only take previous voting attendance into account. |
| From new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa: Previously attended (67%): Cruz 31, Trump 28, Rubio 12. First-timers (33%): Trump 38, Cruz 25, Rubio 15. | From new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa: Previously attended (67%): Cruz 31, Trump 28, Rubio 12. First-timers (33%): Trump 38, Cruz 25, Rubio 15. |
| Still, whichever way you slice these numbers, there’s one clear takeaway: Trump is doing great. | Still, whichever way you slice these numbers, there’s one clear takeaway: Trump is doing great. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.25pm GMT | at 3.25pm GMT |
| 2.59pm GMT | 2.59pm GMT |
| 14:59 | 14:59 |
| Hilarious Rubio football video | Hilarious Rubio football video |
| This is great. Independent Journal Review revisits the time last year when Marco Rubio bonked a kid in a head with a football. Here Rubio completes the pass. | This is great. Independent Journal Review revisits the time last year when Marco Rubio bonked a kid in a head with a football. Here Rubio completes the pass. |
| But then it gets really playful and really good. Have a look. Amazing Ben Carson cameo. Talk about Gifted Hands: | But then it gets really playful and really good. Have a look. Amazing Ben Carson cameo. Talk about Gifted Hands: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.13pm GMT | at 3.13pm GMT |
| 2.46pm GMT | 2.46pm GMT |
| 14:46 | 14:46 |
| Thrice-elected Republican governor of New York and nonstarter 2016 presidential candidate George Pataki has thrown his support behind Florida senator Marco Rubio. | Thrice-elected Republican governor of New York and nonstarter 2016 presidential candidate George Pataki has thrown his support behind Florida senator Marco Rubio. |
| George Pataki just endorsed @marcorubio on Fox News. | George Pataki just endorsed @marcorubio on Fox News. |
| The biggest endorsement news since nonstarter 2016 presidential candidate Rick Perry endorsed Ted Cruz yesterday? Inarguably. | The biggest endorsement news since nonstarter 2016 presidential candidate Rick Perry endorsed Ted Cruz yesterday? Inarguably. |
| 1.15pm GMT | 1.15pm GMT |
| 13:15 | 13:15 |
| Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Did you watch the Democratic candidates’ forum last night? Hillary Clinton faced an uncomfortable question from the audience about why she does not inspire young people, and Bernie Sanders had to grovel for calling Planned Parenthood “establishment”. | Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Did you watch the Democratic candidates’ forum last night? Hillary Clinton faced an uncomfortable question from the audience about why she does not inspire young people, and Bernie Sanders had to grovel for calling Planned Parenthood “establishment”. |
| Who won? It’s a forum, everybody wins! Read our full coverage here. Here’s the Clinton moment: | Who won? It’s a forum, everybody wins! Read our full coverage here. Here’s the Clinton moment: |
| ‘Very powerful endorsement today’, quoth Trump | ‘Very powerful endorsement today’, quoth Trump |
| Donald Trump is saying he’s got another big fish in the net. Sarah Palin was just a “special guest”, so who’s “very powerful”? Here’s video of the audio (because this is how we do TV now) of Trump’s boast: | Donald Trump is saying he’s got another big fish in the net. Sarah Palin was just a “special guest”, so who’s “very powerful”? Here’s video of the audio (because this is how we do TV now) of Trump’s boast: |
| VIDEO: @realDonaldTrump announces 'a very powerful endorsement' will be coming today. https://t.co/cJsMBcVcdY | VIDEO: @realDonaldTrump announces 'a very powerful endorsement' will be coming today. https://t.co/cJsMBcVcdY |
| Low whistle | Low whistle |
| New ABC/WaPo poll: 64% of Republicans now expect Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee, up sharply in last two months: pic.twitter.com/Xp1W7lwF8d | New ABC/WaPo poll: 64% of Republicans now expect Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee, up sharply in last two months: pic.twitter.com/Xp1W7lwF8d |
| There is a slew of new polling out this morning, and it all looks good for Trump, especially nationally where a CNN/ORC poll has him at 41%, followed by Texas senator Ted Cruz at 19%. | There is a slew of new polling out this morning, and it all looks good for Trump, especially nationally where a CNN/ORC poll has him at 41%, followed by Texas senator Ted Cruz at 19%. |
| But what about Iowa, which caucuses on Monday? The race between Cruz and Trump in Iowa remains tight, the way Quinnipiac sees it. And Jeb! is up a point! | But what about Iowa, which caucuses on Monday? The race between Cruz and Trump in Iowa remains tight, the way Quinnipiac sees it. And Jeb! is up a point! |
| Trump, Cruz Go Down To The Wire In GOP #Iowa Caucus Poll https://t.co/OjrPo806Vt #Election2016 #IAcaucus pic.twitter.com/FXLBflwNOw | Trump, Cruz Go Down To The Wire In GOP #Iowa Caucus Poll https://t.co/OjrPo806Vt #Election2016 #IAcaucus pic.twitter.com/FXLBflwNOw |
| As for the Democrats, an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll has Hillary Clinton holding a large national lead of 51-37 over Sanders, which is right in line with the polling averages. | As for the Democrats, an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll has Hillary Clinton holding a large national lead of 51-37 over Sanders, which is right in line with the polling averages. |
| Isn’t it strange how the first time Trump says something you kind of dismiss it, but then he does that trick where he says it again right away and then you catch yourself thinking: “Huh, Ted Cruz. Seems kind of nervous. Huh, America, we never win anymore. Huh, deals, why does Obama make such stupid deals.” | Isn’t it strange how the first time Trump says something you kind of dismiss it, but then he does that trick where he says it again right away and then you catch yourself thinking: “Huh, Ted Cruz. Seems kind of nervous. Huh, America, we never win anymore. Huh, deals, why does Obama make such stupid deals.” |
| Trump on Cruz: “He really does lie. He’s so nervous. I saw him the other day, he’s so nervous." | Trump on Cruz: “He really does lie. He’s so nervous. I saw him the other day, he’s so nervous." |
| Here’s how some of the Guardian politics team is deployed today: | Here’s how some of the Guardian politics team is deployed today: |
| Dan Roberts will be with Bernie Sanders in Des Moines, Iowa, where the senator is to meet with steel workers. Later in the day he’ll catch Hillary Clinton in Iowa as well, and even later in the day, Sabrina Siddiqui will catch Clinton again. | Dan Roberts will be with Bernie Sanders in Des Moines, Iowa, where the senator is to meet with steel workers. Later in the day he’ll catch Hillary Clinton in Iowa as well, and even later in the day, Sabrina Siddiqui will catch Clinton again. |
| Sabrina will also cross paths with Ted Cruz in Iowa today, while Ben Jacobs has his sights on a Donald Trump rally this afternoon. David Smith reports today from the White House. | Sabrina will also cross paths with Ted Cruz in Iowa today, while Ben Jacobs has his sights on a Donald Trump rally this afternoon. David Smith reports today from the White House. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.13pm GMT | at 2.13pm GMT |