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Lessons from Iowa: real caucus victory comes from beating expectations Lessons from Iowa: real caucus victory comes from beating expectations
(7 months later)
The hoary old cliche in politics is that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. This is false. After all, polls have become the lifeblood of measuring who is up and who is down in the frantic 24-hour news cycle that now defines American presidential elections. They are so central that the current Republican frontrunner devotes time in every rally to reading out his poll numbers. But what polls don’t have is the blunt force of reality. Polls are ephemeral. Actual votes are fixed, hard numbers.The hoary old cliche in politics is that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. This is false. After all, polls have become the lifeblood of measuring who is up and who is down in the frantic 24-hour news cycle that now defines American presidential elections. They are so central that the current Republican frontrunner devotes time in every rally to reading out his poll numbers. But what polls don’t have is the blunt force of reality. Polls are ephemeral. Actual votes are fixed, hard numbers.
With the Iowa caucuses on Monday, candidates will face actual returns from actual voters. Neither the candidates nor the pundits can dismiss the figures, which means everything changes.With the Iowa caucuses on Monday, candidates will face actual returns from actual voters. Neither the candidates nor the pundits can dismiss the figures, which means everything changes.
Winning in Iowa has the potential to transform also-rans into frontrunners, especially among Democrats. Barack Obama’s 2008 win in the Hawkeye state gave him a lead over Hillary Clinton that he never relinquished. John Kerry’s win in 2004 had the same effect. Although Kerry didn’t win the presidency, it helped make him the Democratic nominee.Winning in Iowa has the potential to transform also-rans into frontrunners, especially among Democrats. Barack Obama’s 2008 win in the Hawkeye state gave him a lead over Hillary Clinton that he never relinquished. John Kerry’s win in 2004 had the same effect. Although Kerry didn’t win the presidency, it helped make him the Democratic nominee.
In 2012, though, a win in Iowa didn’t quite have the same impact for Rick Santorum. The state wasn’t called for him until weeks later after a counting error mistakenly gave the victory to Mitt Romney on caucus night. This delay cost Santorum momentum, though he still managed to finish second in the primary and won 11 states despite being severely outspent.In 2012, though, a win in Iowa didn’t quite have the same impact for Rick Santorum. The state wasn’t called for him until weeks later after a counting error mistakenly gave the victory to Mitt Romney on caucus night. This delay cost Santorum momentum, though he still managed to finish second in the primary and won 11 states despite being severely outspent.
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In 2008, Mike Huckabee used a win in Iowa to firmly establish himself in the upper tier of GOP candidates. Although he did well in the primaries, the continued presence of Fred Thompson in the South Carolina primaries denied Huckabee the conservative support he needed in the state.In 2008, Mike Huckabee used a win in Iowa to firmly establish himself in the upper tier of GOP candidates. Although he did well in the primaries, the continued presence of Fred Thompson in the South Carolina primaries denied Huckabee the conservative support he needed in the state.
But winning isn’t everything in Iowa. It’s all about “beating expectations”. In 2012, what appeared to be a win for Romney on caucus night but eventually ended being a close second was a huge boost to his campaign. Romney tried hard to underplay expectations in the Iowa, where polling had long been volatile throughout the 2012 GOP primary. But even if the excited Bud Light-fueled cheers of his staffers proved to be premature, it was more than enough for him to firm up his role as a frontrunner.But winning isn’t everything in Iowa. It’s all about “beating expectations”. In 2012, what appeared to be a win for Romney on caucus night but eventually ended being a close second was a huge boost to his campaign. Romney tried hard to underplay expectations in the Iowa, where polling had long been volatile throughout the 2012 GOP primary. But even if the excited Bud Light-fueled cheers of his staffers proved to be premature, it was more than enough for him to firm up his role as a frontrunner.
A second place finish in a crowded field isn’t always a victory, however. In 2008, John Edwards finished second after camping out in Iowa for years. His silver medal in effect spelled the end of the former North Carolina senator’s campaign. Romney himself was deeply wounded by finishing second in Iowa during his first bid for the White House in 2008, and it allowed John McCain to elbow him out of the way to establish himself as the champion of the Republican establishment.A second place finish in a crowded field isn’t always a victory, however. In 2008, John Edwards finished second after camping out in Iowa for years. His silver medal in effect spelled the end of the former North Carolina senator’s campaign. Romney himself was deeply wounded by finishing second in Iowa during his first bid for the White House in 2008, and it allowed John McCain to elbow him out of the way to establish himself as the champion of the Republican establishment.
But their failures in Iowa didn’t end their campaigns. However, the casualty list from past Iowa caucuses is long. Disappointing finishes in Iowa in 2012 ended the campaigns of Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry and, in 2008, these had the same impact on Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd.But their failures in Iowa didn’t end their campaigns. However, the casualty list from past Iowa caucuses is long. Disappointing finishes in Iowa in 2012 ended the campaigns of Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry and, in 2008, these had the same impact on Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd.
It’s still unclear what will happen on caucus night. With Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton neck and neck, it’s likely whatever candidate pulls out a win will be given a huge burst of momentum going into New Hampshire and the same phenomenon will hold on the Republican side as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz battle for a win.It’s still unclear what will happen on caucus night. With Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton neck and neck, it’s likely whatever candidate pulls out a win will be given a huge burst of momentum going into New Hampshire and the same phenomenon will hold on the Republican side as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz battle for a win.
For underdog candidates like Democrat Martin O’Malley or Republican Mike Huckabee, a strong performance is needed to keep their campaigns alive. Both have staked their political fortunes in Iowa and a poor performance on caucus night will likely end their ambitions for the White House.For underdog candidates like Democrat Martin O’Malley or Republican Mike Huckabee, a strong performance is needed to keep their campaigns alive. Both have staked their political fortunes in Iowa and a poor performance on caucus night will likely end their ambitions for the White House.