This article is from the source 'independent' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/iowa-caucus-results-winner-polls-republican-democrats-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-ted-cruz-bernie-a6847146.html
The article has changed 7 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Cruz soars to victory in Iowa as Democrats' race goes down to the wire | |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| Donald Trump has congratuled Ted Cruz as polls in Iowa showed the Texas senator sailing to victory. With 90 per cent of precints reporting, Mr Cruz led Mr Trump by 28 to 24, with Senator Marco Rubio third on 23 per cent. The Democratic race was too close to call with Hillary Clinton on 50 points, and Bernie Sanders on 49.5. | |
| Voters are about to go to the polls in the Iowa caucuses, the first test of the US Republicans’ and Democrats’ prospective presidential candidates. | Voters are about to go to the polls in the Iowa caucuses, the first test of the US Republicans’ and Democrats’ prospective presidential candidates. |
| Voting will begin in the Iowa caucus, which kicks off the first official voting of the election, takes place at 7pm on 1 February. | Voting will begin in the Iowa caucus, which kicks off the first official voting of the election, takes place at 7pm on 1 February. |
| Primaries and caucuses will take place across the US until 14 June, in which they will finish with a primary in the District of Columbia. | Primaries and caucuses will take place across the US until 14 June, in which they will finish with a primary in the District of Columbia. |
| The Iowa caucus is huge in the US media calendar. | The Iowa caucus is huge in the US media calendar. |
| It marks the first time in the election that the people have their say, putting an end to the polls and speculation that inevitably take place in the weeks and months before the elections really get going. | It marks the first time in the election that the people have their say, putting an end to the polls and speculation that inevitably take place in the weeks and months before the elections really get going. |
| If you’re wondering whether the Iowa caucus is really a big deal in the grand scheme of the four months of voting to come, then the past two presidents could be considered a testament to this. | If you’re wondering whether the Iowa caucus is really a big deal in the grand scheme of the four months of voting to come, then the past two presidents could be considered a testament to this. |
| President’s Barack Obama and George W Bush both won the Iowa caucus in their first term, and capitalised on the momentum gained throughout the remainder of their election campaigns. | President’s Barack Obama and George W Bush both won the Iowa caucus in their first term, and capitalised on the momentum gained throughout the remainder of their election campaigns. |
| In 2012, however, a counting error mistakenly gave the Republican victory to Mitt Romney on the nigh. Two weeks late, when all the votes had been counted, it was discovered that the actual winner was Rick Santorum. | In 2012, however, a counting error mistakenly gave the Republican victory to Mitt Romney on the nigh. Two weeks late, when all the votes had been counted, it was discovered that the actual winner was Rick Santorum. |
| Mr Santorum’s campaign never really gained the momentum it could have, although he still won 11 states despite being considerably outspent. | Mr Santorum’s campaign never really gained the momentum it could have, although he still won 11 states despite being considerably outspent. |
| The results for the caucuses and primaries are usually declared within a few hours, but these are sometimes amended at a later date. | The results for the caucuses and primaries are usually declared within a few hours, but these are sometimes amended at a later date. |
| An extreme example of this is the 2012 Iowa caucus where Mitt Romney was mistakenly given a double-digit lead over his Republican co-runner Rick Santorum, and the result was amended sixteen days later to show that Mr Santorum had, in fact, won. | An extreme example of this is the 2012 Iowa caucus where Mitt Romney was mistakenly given a double-digit lead over his Republican co-runner Rick Santorum, and the result was amended sixteen days later to show that Mr Santorum had, in fact, won. |
| However, the reality is that the Iowa caucus chooses just one per cent of the delegates who will go on to vote for the presidential nominees. | However, the reality is that the Iowa caucus chooses just one per cent of the delegates who will go on to vote for the presidential nominees. |
| So it could be argued that the result is not nearly as important as the opportunity to gain positive media attention, and that exceeding expectations is the best outcome, regardless of where the candidate comes. | So it could be argued that the result is not nearly as important as the opportunity to gain positive media attention, and that exceeding expectations is the best outcome, regardless of where the candidate comes. |
| Many hopefuls will build their strategy around this notion, for example it could be argued that Ted Cruz coming second by a small margin would be of less benefit than Marco Rubio coming comfortably third, because of the expectations already placed upon them. | Many hopefuls will build their strategy around this notion, for example it could be argued that Ted Cruz coming second by a small margin would be of less benefit than Marco Rubio coming comfortably third, because of the expectations already placed upon them. |
| The battle to see who will go head-to-head in the US presidential election begins in earnest on 1 February. | The battle to see who will go head-to-head in the US presidential election begins in earnest on 1 February. |
| Candidates have been debating, running adverts, and making public statements, but not a single vote has yet been cast. | Candidates have been debating, running adverts, and making public statements, but not a single vote has yet been cast. |
| On 1 February voters in the prairie state of Iowa will attend meet-ups called “caucuses” where they discuss the available candidates and make their choices. | On 1 February voters in the prairie state of Iowa will attend meet-ups called “caucuses” where they discuss the available candidates and make their choices. |
| The main reason the Iowa Caucuses are important is because it is the first state in the US where a ballot is cast. | The main reason the Iowa Caucuses are important is because it is the first state in the US where a ballot is cast. |
| Despite being tiny, atypical of the rest of the US, and providing about 1 per cent of the nation’s delegates, the state is the first indicator of whether a prospective presidential candidate’s support is holding up. | Despite being tiny, atypical of the rest of the US, and providing about 1 per cent of the nation’s delegates, the state is the first indicator of whether a prospective presidential candidate’s support is holding up. |
| The media interest generated by the timing of what would otherwise be a fairly insignificant part of the race to the White House means candidates can secure disproportionate positive coverage for a smaller amount of effort. | The media interest generated by the timing of what would otherwise be a fairly insignificant part of the race to the White House means candidates can secure disproportionate positive coverage for a smaller amount of effort. |
| The early timing also means that candidates have more room to adjust their messages and programmes in response to the results – giving the state disproportionate influence. | The early timing also means that candidates have more room to adjust their messages and programmes in response to the results – giving the state disproportionate influence. |
| About half of the winners of the Iowa Caucus go on to win their party’s nomination for the presidency – meaning it isn’t a very good predictor of who will actually get the nomination. | About half of the winners of the Iowa Caucus go on to win their party’s nomination for the presidency – meaning it isn’t a very good predictor of who will actually get the nomination. |
| Where the race is a better predictor is showing who is likely to get absolutely nowhere. A campaign with no real support makes contact with the electorate in Iowa for the first time, and it often isn’t pretty. | Where the race is a better predictor is showing who is likely to get absolutely nowhere. A campaign with no real support makes contact with the electorate in Iowa for the first time, and it often isn’t pretty. |
| Since 1972 no Democratic of Republican candidate who finished worth than fourth place in the Iowa Caucus has gone on to win their party’s nomination. | Since 1972 no Democratic of Republican candidate who finished worth than fourth place in the Iowa Caucus has gone on to win their party’s nomination. |
| Do not be surprised if a few of the many Republicans running this years drop out not too soon after Iowa. | Do not be surprised if a few of the many Republicans running this years drop out not too soon after Iowa. |
| The caucus is the oldest method of choosing delegates. | The caucus is the oldest method of choosing delegates. |
| Registered members of a political party in a town, city or county meet, usually in a place in the community, such as a school or church, to elect delegates to be put forward for presidential elections. | Registered members of a political party in a town, city or county meet, usually in a place in the community, such as a school or church, to elect delegates to be put forward for presidential elections. |
| Although once more common, caucuses these days only take place in a few states, notably Iowa, Nevada and Alaska. | Although once more common, caucuses these days only take place in a few states, notably Iowa, Nevada and Alaska. |
| While Republican voters cast secret ballots, Democrats vote publicly in a slightly more unusual process, in which their candidates need the support of 15% of voters. Should a candidate fall below this threshold, the voter can choose another candidate. | While Republican voters cast secret ballots, Democrats vote publicly in a slightly more unusual process, in which their candidates need the support of 15% of voters. Should a candidate fall below this threshold, the voter can choose another candidate. |
| Primaries, on the other hand, are much more common, conducted in 34 US states. They are similar to elections in the UK, with voters casting their ballot at polls. | Primaries, on the other hand, are much more common, conducted in 34 US states. They are similar to elections in the UK, with voters casting their ballot at polls. |
| There are several types of primary, varying between both states and parties; closed, in which only a party’s registered members can vote; semi-closed where members and unaffiliated voters can participate; open, where any registered voter can participate; and semi-open, where any registered voter may take part but must request a party’s specific ballot. | There are several types of primary, varying between both states and parties; closed, in which only a party’s registered members can vote; semi-closed where members and unaffiliated voters can participate; open, where any registered voter can participate; and semi-open, where any registered voter may take part but must request a party’s specific ballot. |
| Once the primaries and caucuses are complete, the delegates go on to the National Conventions, which take place a week apart in July, Republican on 18-21 and Democratic on 25-28, when the presidential candidates are announced. | Once the primaries and caucuses are complete, the delegates go on to the National Conventions, which take place a week apart in July, Republican on 18-21 and Democratic on 25-28, when the presidential candidates are announced. |
| The Iowa caucuses are very difficult to poll. The nature of the elections – a time-consuming neighbourhood meeting and discussion between locals about the candidates, followed by a vote – means it can be difficult to even predict who will show up, never mind how they will vote. | The Iowa caucuses are very difficult to poll. The nature of the elections – a time-consuming neighbourhood meeting and discussion between locals about the candidates, followed by a vote – means it can be difficult to even predict who will show up, never mind how they will vote. |
| The polls with the best historical track record in past caucuses are published by local newspaper the Des Moines Register, which is based out of the state’s capital. That newspaper published its final poll of this year’s caucuses late last week. | The polls with the best historical track record in past caucuses are published by local newspaper the Des Moines Register, which is based out of the state’s capital. That newspaper published its final poll of this year’s caucuses late last week. |
| On the Republican side, the field is crowded. The frontrunner is Donald Trump, who leads likely caucus-goers with 28 per cent, according to the DMR. | On the Republican side, the field is crowded. The frontrunner is Donald Trump, who leads likely caucus-goers with 28 per cent, according to the DMR. |
| Ted Cruz is in second with 23 per cent and Marco Rubio is in third with 15 per cent. Ben Carson is in fourth with 10 per cent and all the other candidates have less than five percent. | Ted Cruz is in second with 23 per cent and Marco Rubio is in third with 15 per cent. Ben Carson is in fourth with 10 per cent and all the other candidates have less than five percent. |
| For the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 45 per cent, while Bernie Sanders is on 42 per cent. Martin O’Malley, the only other candidate, has three per cent. | For the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 45 per cent, while Bernie Sanders is on 42 per cent. Martin O’Malley, the only other candidate, has three per cent. |
| This year’s race is particularly difficult to poll, in part because of the nature of support for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. | This year’s race is particularly difficult to poll, in part because of the nature of support for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. |
| Both Trump and Sanders’ supporters have patchy records about whether they have attended a caucus before. | Both Trump and Sanders’ supporters have patchy records about whether they have attended a caucus before. |
| Caucuses are time-consuming and require a commitment to attend, unlike voting in a primary which takes five minutes at most. | Caucuses are time-consuming and require a commitment to attend, unlike voting in a primary which takes five minutes at most. |
| The DMR polls tend to discount the opinions people who aren’t likely to attend caucuses. The question is whether they have discounted the right people and by the right amount. | The DMR polls tend to discount the opinions people who aren’t likely to attend caucuses. The question is whether they have discounted the right people and by the right amount. |
| Trump and Sanders’ unconventional support bases could either cause a surge in attendance – giving either of them a better score than polls suggest – or it could just as easily underperform. The caucuses are therefore far from decided. | Trump and Sanders’ unconventional support bases could either cause a surge in attendance – giving either of them a better score than polls suggest – or it could just as easily underperform. The caucuses are therefore far from decided. |
| Follow this link for the latest coverage of the Iowa caucus. | Follow this link for the latest coverage of the Iowa caucus. |