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| Europe offers Britain a deal to stay in the E.U. | |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| LONDON — A draft agreement aimed at keeping Britain in the European Union was unveiled Tuesday, opening two weeks of intense negotiations and possibly paving the way for an early referendum on E.U. membership in June. | LONDON — A draft agreement aimed at keeping Britain in the European Union was unveiled Tuesday, opening two weeks of intense negotiations and possibly paving the way for an early referendum on E.U. membership in June. |
| Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, sent the proposals to all 28 members of bloc after what he had called “crucial” talks with the British Prime Minister David Cameron. | Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, sent the proposals to all 28 members of bloc after what he had called “crucial” talks with the British Prime Minister David Cameron. |
| “To be, or not to be together, that is the question . . . My proposal for a new settlement,” tweeted Tusk, channeling his inner Shakespeare and linking to the proposal. | “To be, or not to be together, that is the question . . . My proposal for a new settlement,” tweeted Tusk, channeling his inner Shakespeare and linking to the proposal. |
| Cameron told the BBC it offered “real progress” on his four broad demands, but added that there was still “detail to be nailed down.” | Cameron told the BBC it offered “real progress” on his four broad demands, but added that there was still “detail to be nailed down.” |
| [Chances for a “Brexit” may have just gone up] | [Chances for a “Brexit” may have just gone up] |
| But some critics dismissed the draft provisions as not going far enough to address key issues such as reducing the immigration flow from the rest of the European Union. | But some critics dismissed the draft provisions as not going far enough to address key issues such as reducing the immigration flow from the rest of the European Union. |
| Cameron is trying to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s relationship with the European Union ahead of a promised in-or-out referendum before the end of 2017. If the deal on the table is approved at a Brussels summit on Feb. 18-19, it could lead to a referendum as early as June. | Cameron is trying to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s relationship with the European Union ahead of a promised in-or-out referendum before the end of 2017. If the deal on the table is approved at a Brussels summit on Feb. 18-19, it could lead to a referendum as early as June. |
| On the all-important issues of immigration and welfare benefits, a so-called “emergency brake” was offered that would allow Britain to curb benefit payments to E.U. citizens for up to four years immediately after a referendum. But it remained unclear as to how exactly how such a plan would operate. | On the all-important issues of immigration and welfare benefits, a so-called “emergency brake” was offered that would allow Britain to curb benefit payments to E.U. citizens for up to four years immediately after a referendum. But it remained unclear as to how exactly how such a plan would operate. |
| [Britain to E.U. parnters: We need to talk] | [Britain to E.U. parnters: We need to talk] |
| Cameron’s Conservative government wants to dramatically slash the number of migrants arriving from other E.U. nations, but one of the fundamental principles of the 28-nation bloc is the right to live and work in other member states. Cameron believes that restricting benefits will reduce the incentives to move to Britain. | Cameron’s Conservative government wants to dramatically slash the number of migrants arriving from other E.U. nations, but one of the fundamental principles of the 28-nation bloc is the right to live and work in other member states. Cameron believes that restricting benefits will reduce the incentives to move to Britain. |
| Welfare changes were not the only ones on offer. | Welfare changes were not the only ones on offer. |
| The package on the table addressed Britain’s other three “baskets” of demands: an increase of national sovereignty; safeguards for countries not using the common euro currency; and measures to make the European Union more competitive. | The package on the table addressed Britain’s other three “baskets” of demands: an increase of national sovereignty; safeguards for countries not using the common euro currency; and measures to make the European Union more competitive. |
| One of the proposals includes a “red card veto” that would give national governments the ability to block E.U. legislation if they won support from at least 55 percent of the countries in the bloc. | One of the proposals includes a “red card veto” that would give national governments the ability to block E.U. legislation if they won support from at least 55 percent of the countries in the bloc. |
| Matthew Elliott, chief executive of the Vote Leave campaign, called the proposals “gimmicks” and said that threshold for the “red card” proposal was so high as to make its use “incredibly unlikely.” | Matthew Elliott, chief executive of the Vote Leave campaign, called the proposals “gimmicks” and said that threshold for the “red card” proposal was so high as to make its use “incredibly unlikely.” |
| Lucy Thomas, a spokeswoman for the campaign group Britain Stronger In Europe, tweeted that “red card” would “give U.K. more power to block unwanted E.U. rules.” | Lucy Thomas, a spokeswoman for the campaign group Britain Stronger In Europe, tweeted that “red card” would “give U.K. more power to block unwanted E.U. rules.” |
| Cameron has said he would like to see an agreement at the Brussels summit later this month, but has stressed he won’t rush into it if he doesn’t believe he has secured a good deal. But many think Downing Street is keen to hold the referendum sooner rather than later. | Cameron has said he would like to see an agreement at the Brussels summit later this month, but has stressed he won’t rush into it if he doesn’t believe he has secured a good deal. But many think Downing Street is keen to hold the referendum sooner rather than later. |
| Mujtaba Rahman, a Europe analyst with Eurasia Group, wrote in a recent commentary to his clients that a referendum held after June “would open the door to a host of negative forces including the seasonal uptick in migrant flows, French and German electoral cycles and a dissipation of political momentum.” | Mujtaba Rahman, a Europe analyst with Eurasia Group, wrote in a recent commentary to his clients that a referendum held after June “would open the door to a host of negative forces including the seasonal uptick in migrant flows, French and German electoral cycles and a dissipation of political momentum.” |
| He also said that it would risk “higher-level defections among cabinet ministers who currently appear ready to back a reasonable deal.” | He also said that it would risk “higher-level defections among cabinet ministers who currently appear ready to back a reasonable deal.” |
| Cameron is allowing Euroskeptic ministers to campaign to leave the European Union, or “Brexit” as it is known, but they aren’t allowed to speak out until a deal is finalized. | Cameron is allowing Euroskeptic ministers to campaign to leave the European Union, or “Brexit” as it is known, but they aren’t allowed to speak out until a deal is finalized. |
| It’s unclear if all of the 27 other E.U. members will rubber stamp the deal. While keen for Britain to remain in the club, their support is not unconditional. | It’s unclear if all of the 27 other E.U. members will rubber stamp the deal. While keen for Britain to remain in the club, their support is not unconditional. |
| “This negotiation with the U.K. cannot be at any price,” Pervenche Beres, a French Member of the European Parliament told the BBC, “to help Cameron to win this referendum, we cannot do it at the price of destroying all the rest of what is our thinking.” | “This negotiation with the U.K. cannot be at any price,” Pervenche Beres, a French Member of the European Parliament told the BBC, “to help Cameron to win this referendum, we cannot do it at the price of destroying all the rest of what is our thinking.” |
| Poland and other Eastern European countries have already signalled their resistance to the “emergency brake” proposal, while France is jittery about the proposals over the protection of non-euro zone countries. | Poland and other Eastern European countries have already signalled their resistance to the “emergency brake” proposal, while France is jittery about the proposals over the protection of non-euro zone countries. |
| Not only is the future of the E.U. at stake — no country has ever left the bloc — but existential questions about Britain itself have surfaced. | Not only is the future of the E.U. at stake — no country has ever left the bloc — but existential questions about Britain itself have surfaced. |
| Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, recently said that it was “highly likely” that a vote to leave the E.U. would trigger a second Scottish referendum on independence. Last year, Scots voted to remain with the rest of United Kingdom — England, Wales and Northern Ireland. | Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, recently said that it was “highly likely” that a vote to leave the E.U. would trigger a second Scottish referendum on independence. Last year, Scots voted to remain with the rest of United Kingdom — England, Wales and Northern Ireland. |
| Opinion polls currently predict a tight race. A recent poll by YouGov showed that 38 percent would vote to “remain” and 42 percent would vote to “leave” the European Union. | Opinion polls currently predict a tight race. A recent poll by YouGov showed that 38 percent would vote to “remain” and 42 percent would vote to “leave” the European Union. |