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| Eastern Europe Cautiously Welcomes Larger U.S. Military Presence | Eastern Europe Cautiously Welcomes Larger U.S. Military Presence |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| BUDAPEST — The Obama administration’s plans to quadruple military spending in Central and Eastern Europe, largely in response to recent aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, was greeted warmly but warily on Tuesday in the region, where the news seemed to catch many officials and analysts by surprise. | |
| “It is not only the right decision, it is necessary to protect Central Europe from Putin’s expansionistic lust,” said Radko Hokovsky, director of European Values, research organization in Prague. | “It is not only the right decision, it is necessary to protect Central Europe from Putin’s expansionistic lust,” said Radko Hokovsky, director of European Values, research organization in Prague. |
| Mr. Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and his continued support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine — along with provocative incursions into Ukraine’s airspace, increased submarine patrols and large-scale military maneuvers near its western borders — have unsettled many of the former Communist states in the region and have led to increasing demands for a concrete Western response. | |
| There was little immediate reaction from government officials in the region — or in Russia — to the news from Washington, with spokesmen in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltics and elsewhere saying their governments needed time to absorb the proposal and learn its details before offering a concrete response. | There was little immediate reaction from government officials in the region — or in Russia — to the news from Washington, with spokesmen in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltics and elsewhere saying their governments needed time to absorb the proposal and learn its details before offering a concrete response. |
| In Russia, while there was also no immediate official response, the military buildup was expected to draw a harsh reaction from the Kremlin and cause Mr. Putin to respond with a buildup of his own, although analysts doubted that it would inspire a fresh arms race. | In Russia, while there was also no immediate official response, the military buildup was expected to draw a harsh reaction from the Kremlin and cause Mr. Putin to respond with a buildup of his own, although analysts doubted that it would inspire a fresh arms race. |
| “Russia will not welcome the strengthening of the American contingent in Europe at the time when regardless of the overall political difficulties, there is no risk of a direct military confrontation with NATO,” said Igor Korotchenko, editor in chief of the magazine National Defense. “This will make the system in Europe more unbalanced. It is one thing when the Americans deploy their forces in Spain, but it is very different when they deploy them in Poland, Romania or the Baltic States.” | “Russia will not welcome the strengthening of the American contingent in Europe at the time when regardless of the overall political difficulties, there is no risk of a direct military confrontation with NATO,” said Igor Korotchenko, editor in chief of the magazine National Defense. “This will make the system in Europe more unbalanced. It is one thing when the Americans deploy their forces in Spain, but it is very different when they deploy them in Poland, Romania or the Baltic States.” |
| Still, Mr. Korotchenko said, “the response will not be hysteric.” | Still, Mr. Korotchenko said, “the response will not be hysteric.” |
| Some action along these lines had been expected since Western officials announced plans at a NATO summit meeting in Wales last summer to build military supply bases and station troops in the region to response rapidly in the event of Russian aggression. | Some action along these lines had been expected since Western officials announced plans at a NATO summit meeting in Wales last summer to build military supply bases and station troops in the region to response rapidly in the event of Russian aggression. |
| That the Obama administration was proposing more than $3.4 billion in military spending next year — far above the $786 million in the current budget — put some heft behind what had been a vague goal, but questions about where the equipment and troops would be stationed were left unanswered. | That the Obama administration was proposing more than $3.4 billion in military spending next year — far above the $786 million in the current budget — put some heft behind what had been a vague goal, but questions about where the equipment and troops would be stationed were left unanswered. |
| American officials told The New York Times that the intention was to have new equipment — available to both United States and NATO forces — positioned in the region as well as having a full armored combat brigade deployed somewhere in the region, on a rotating basis, at all times. | American officials told The New York Times that the intention was to have new equipment — available to both United States and NATO forces — positioned in the region as well as having a full armored combat brigade deployed somewhere in the region, on a rotating basis, at all times. |
| Administration officials argued that the rotating nature of this deployment would keep the United States in compliance with the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, under which both sides promised not to station large numbers of troops along their borders. | Administration officials argued that the rotating nature of this deployment would keep the United States in compliance with the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, under which both sides promised not to station large numbers of troops along their borders. |
| Government leaders in Poland and the Baltic nations have argued strenuously that Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine had already violated the act, and urged American leaders to ignore it and station permanent troops in the region. Poland’s new right-wing government, in particular, has made the permanent deployment of NATO troops in the region a major foreign policy goal. | Government leaders in Poland and the Baltic nations have argued strenuously that Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine had already violated the act, and urged American leaders to ignore it and station permanent troops in the region. Poland’s new right-wing government, in particular, has made the permanent deployment of NATO troops in the region a major foreign policy goal. |
| This summer’s NATO summit will be held in Warsaw, so this proposal provides some response to such demands that might have dominated the summit. | This summer’s NATO summit will be held in Warsaw, so this proposal provides some response to such demands that might have dominated the summit. |
| “It’s important for our self-confidence to see that the United States finally takes European security seriously again,” said Petr Kolar, a former Czech ambassador to both the United States and Russia. “At the same, time I wish that the European allies would do their homework as well. It’s not fair to expect the U.S. to save us all the time, when we don’t take our protection seriously enough.” | “It’s important for our self-confidence to see that the United States finally takes European security seriously again,” said Petr Kolar, a former Czech ambassador to both the United States and Russia. “At the same, time I wish that the European allies would do their homework as well. It’s not fair to expect the U.S. to save us all the time, when we don’t take our protection seriously enough.” |
| Mr. Hokovsky, the analyst in Prague, agreed. “Europeans really need to step up their defense efforts so that they are not like a child always waiting for an American mom to come save them because they are so lazy to spend their wealth on their own security,” he said. | Mr. Hokovsky, the analyst in Prague, agreed. “Europeans really need to step up their defense efforts so that they are not like a child always waiting for an American mom to come save them because they are so lazy to spend their wealth on their own security,” he said. |
| Despite Russian aggression, overall European military spending has been dropping. Although NATO asks its member states to contribute 2 percent of gross domestic product to military purposes, only a few countries in Europe actually do so. According to the NATO 2015 Annual Report, the European part of the alliance devoted to military spending 1.51 percent of G.D.P. in 2013, 1.47 percent in 2014 and 1.43 percent last year. | Despite Russian aggression, overall European military spending has been dropping. Although NATO asks its member states to contribute 2 percent of gross domestic product to military purposes, only a few countries in Europe actually do so. According to the NATO 2015 Annual Report, the European part of the alliance devoted to military spending 1.51 percent of G.D.P. in 2013, 1.47 percent in 2014 and 1.43 percent last year. |
| Obama administration officials said that the American proposal was largely a reaction to recent aggression by Mr. Putin, but also cited other goals, including providing forces capable of fighting potential threats from Islamic extremists and reacting to the influx of migrants from Syria, Afghanistan and elsewhere. | Obama administration officials said that the American proposal was largely a reaction to recent aggression by Mr. Putin, but also cited other goals, including providing forces capable of fighting potential threats from Islamic extremists and reacting to the influx of migrants from Syria, Afghanistan and elsewhere. |
| “Both politicians and regular people are very likely to support any enhancements to Romania’s security landscape,” said Radu Madgin, a political analyst in Bucharest. “Russia is still strongly perceived as a threat and bolder U.S. moves and capabilities would be most welcomed. Let us not forget that Romania is also pushing diplomatically for a permanent NATO fleet on the Black Sea in order to increase regional security.” | “Both politicians and regular people are very likely to support any enhancements to Romania’s security landscape,” said Radu Madgin, a political analyst in Bucharest. “Russia is still strongly perceived as a threat and bolder U.S. moves and capabilities would be most welcomed. Let us not forget that Romania is also pushing diplomatically for a permanent NATO fleet on the Black Sea in order to increase regional security.” |
| Poland, Romania and the Baltics have been especially vocal in criticizing Russia’s seizure of Crimea and its ongoing support of separatists in eastern Ukraine. Poland, in particular, has made numerous international appeals under both this new right-wing government and the previous, center-right one, for NATO troops to be stationed in the region. | Poland, Romania and the Baltics have been especially vocal in criticizing Russia’s seizure of Crimea and its ongoing support of separatists in eastern Ukraine. Poland, in particular, has made numerous international appeals under both this new right-wing government and the previous, center-right one, for NATO troops to be stationed in the region. |
| “It’s a very significant increase, which needs to be viewed as a positive step,” said Marian Majer, director of the Slovak Security Policy Institute in Bratislava. | “It’s a very significant increase, which needs to be viewed as a positive step,” said Marian Majer, director of the Slovak Security Policy Institute in Bratislava. |
| The buildup did not come as a surprise, Mr. Majer said, as it has been a topic of discussion in security circles in the region in recent months. But the size of the increase and the context, coming in the midst of an American presidential election, will bolster confidence that the United States is eager to demonstrate its commitment to the region’s security. | The buildup did not come as a surprise, Mr. Majer said, as it has been a topic of discussion in security circles in the region in recent months. But the size of the increase and the context, coming in the midst of an American presidential election, will bolster confidence that the United States is eager to demonstrate its commitment to the region’s security. |
| Not everyone will react positively to a larger American military presence, analysts said. In some countries, like the Czech Republic, where some leaders have increasingly made overtures to Moscow, the move may be seen as counterproductive. | Not everyone will react positively to a larger American military presence, analysts said. In some countries, like the Czech Republic, where some leaders have increasingly made overtures to Moscow, the move may be seen as counterproductive. |
| “The tone in the country is increasingly being set by the president, Milos Zeman, who speaks openly of ending the sanctions against Russia and would see this as a step in the opposite direction,” said Erik Best, the American-born author of Prague’s Fleet Sheet, an online political and business journal. | “The tone in the country is increasingly being set by the president, Milos Zeman, who speaks openly of ending the sanctions against Russia and would see this as a step in the opposite direction,” said Erik Best, the American-born author of Prague’s Fleet Sheet, an online political and business journal. |
| In Moscow, analysts tried on Tuesday morning to predict Mr. Putin’s reaction. They agreed that it will almost certainly involve a beefing up of troops and equipment along the country’s western fringe, including the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland and not contiguous with the rest of Russia. | In Moscow, analysts tried on Tuesday morning to predict Mr. Putin’s reaction. They agreed that it will almost certainly involve a beefing up of troops and equipment along the country’s western fringe, including the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland and not contiguous with the rest of Russia. |
| “What will happen is that, on the one hand, Russia will further develop its military infrastructure in the western regions that was underdeveloped only five years ago,” said Rusian Pukhov, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “On the other, the new weapons will be deployed in Russia’s west, instead of east.” | “What will happen is that, on the one hand, Russia will further develop its military infrastructure in the western regions that was underdeveloped only five years ago,” said Rusian Pukhov, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “On the other, the new weapons will be deployed in Russia’s west, instead of east.” |
| He also predicted that Mr. Putin will opt to deploy Russia’s Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile system as well as the S-400 antiaircraft system, “not to mention tactical nuclear weapons.” | He also predicted that Mr. Putin will opt to deploy Russia’s Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile system as well as the S-400 antiaircraft system, “not to mention tactical nuclear weapons.” |
| Mr. Korotchenko agreed that these systems will now likely be deployed in the region, but he did not expect there to be a major increase in Russian military spending — something the Kremlin might be hard-pressed to support with low oil prices and international sanctions already hobbling the country’s economy. | Mr. Korotchenko agreed that these systems will now likely be deployed in the region, but he did not expect there to be a major increase in Russian military spending — something the Kremlin might be hard-pressed to support with low oil prices and international sanctions already hobbling the country’s economy. |
| “Russia will not participate in the arms race,” Mr. Korotchenko said. “Nobody will do anything excessive. Any reaction will be based on the fact that Russia has tactical nuclear weapons.” | “Russia will not participate in the arms race,” Mr. Korotchenko said. “Nobody will do anything excessive. Any reaction will be based on the fact that Russia has tactical nuclear weapons.” |
| If necessary, military spending simply will be diverted from other areas to pay for all of this, he said. | If necessary, military spending simply will be diverted from other areas to pay for all of this, he said. |
| “We remember well how the arms race ended for the Soviet Union,” Mr. Korotchenko said. “We will not make the same mistake twice.” | “We remember well how the arms race ended for the Soviet Union,” Mr. Korotchenko said. “We will not make the same mistake twice.” |