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Surviving candidates seek to take elusive momentum to New Hampshire Surviving candidates seek to take elusive momentum to New Hampshire
(about 2 hours later)
Related: Iowa caucus results: track the votes live, county by countyRelated: Iowa caucus results: track the votes live, county by county
The counting was still going on in Iowa when most of the 2016 presidential candidates landed in New Hampshire in the early hours of Tuesday morning, anxious to carry whatever momentum they could muster into the second state to pick party nominees in a week’s time.The counting was still going on in Iowa when most of the 2016 presidential candidates landed in New Hampshire in the early hours of Tuesday morning, anxious to carry whatever momentum they could muster into the second state to pick party nominees in a week’s time.
Some did not survive the transition: Martin O’Malley on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee for the Republicans are gone; Rick Santorum, the evangelical who pushed Mitt Romney closest in 2012, will surely be next.Some did not survive the transition: Martin O’Malley on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee for the Republicans are gone; Rick Santorum, the evangelical who pushed Mitt Romney closest in 2012, will surely be next.
But for the bulk of the trailing Republican pack with more establishment credentials, New Hampshire offers one last chance of redemption.But for the bulk of the trailing Republican pack with more establishment credentials, New Hampshire offers one last chance of redemption.
So what lessons are to be drawn from Iowa, looking into the New Hampshire contest?So what lessons are to be drawn from Iowa, looking into the New Hampshire contest?
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and the former Florida governor Jeb Bush barely registered in Iowa, but will be hoping for a third place next Tuesday to prove they have enduring appeal among more moderate voters. Anything less and they could be done. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and former Florida governor Jeb Bush barely registered in Iowa, but will be hoping for a third place next Tuesday to prove they have enduring appeal among more moderate voters. Anything less and they could be done.
Related: All Donald Trump does is win – until he doesn't. Now what happens?Related: All Donald Trump does is win – until he doesn't. Now what happens?
The favoured Republican in the New Hampshire primary, according to pre-Iowa polling at least, remains the bombastic New York real estate magnate Donald Trump. But his aura of invincibility was badly tarnished by defeat on Monday at the hands of Texas conservative Ted Cruz, and no one knows what happens to a self-appointed winner when he is not winning.The favoured Republican in the New Hampshire primary, according to pre-Iowa polling at least, remains the bombastic New York real estate magnate Donald Trump. But his aura of invincibility was badly tarnished by defeat on Monday at the hands of Texas conservative Ted Cruz, and no one knows what happens to a self-appointed winner when he is not winning.
Both will be eyeing one man more nervously still, however: the Florida senator Marco Rubio, whose surprisingly solid third place performance in Iowa brought him within a whisker of catching Trump. Both will be eyeing one man more nervously still, however: the Florida senator Marco Rubio, whose surprisingly solid third-place performance in Iowa brought him within a whisker of catching Trump.
The charismatic young Rubio is seen as perhaps the biggest threat to Democrats in November’s general election, but he needs a strong performance in New Hampshire to stop Cruz romping away when the battle turns again to more conservative “Super Tuesday” states on 1 March.The charismatic young Rubio is seen as perhaps the biggest threat to Democrats in November’s general election, but he needs a strong performance in New Hampshire to stop Cruz romping away when the battle turns again to more conservative “Super Tuesday” states on 1 March.
This too is the dynamic driving the two remaining candidates in the Democratic primary.This too is the dynamic driving the two remaining candidates in the Democratic primary.
Bernie Sanders did far better than anyone expected by holding Hillary Clinton to a virtual draw in Iowa. He is also up to 20 points ahead in the New Hampshire polling, but he needs to translate that into resounding victory if he is to gain enough speed to break through Clinton’s so-called southern firewall.Bernie Sanders did far better than anyone expected by holding Hillary Clinton to a virtual draw in Iowa. He is also up to 20 points ahead in the New Hampshire polling, but he needs to translate that into resounding victory if he is to gain enough speed to break through Clinton’s so-called southern firewall.
The Vermont senator remains a largely unknown quantity to Democratic voters in the south, particularly African Americans who will vote in large numbers in South Carolina on 27 February and states such as Alabama on 1 March. The senator from Vermont remains a largely unknown quantity to Democratic voters in the south, particularly African Americans who will vote in large numbers in South Carolina on 27 February and states such as Alabama on 1 March.
Two strong performances against Clinton and a chance of a win in Nevada on 23 February could change all that fast and give him the momentum to challenge the former secretary of state all the way through to the party convention this summer.Two strong performances against Clinton and a chance of a win in Nevada on 23 February could change all that fast and give him the momentum to challenge the former secretary of state all the way through to the party convention this summer.
Related: The fractures in America’s political landscape have been exposed | Gary YoungeRelated: The fractures in America’s political landscape have been exposed | Gary Younge
For her part, Clinton is likely to take an urgent look at a defensive campaign strategy that failed to inspire many younger voters in Iowa and could prove her achilles heel against someone like Senator Rubio.For her part, Clinton is likely to take an urgent look at a defensive campaign strategy that failed to inspire many younger voters in Iowa and could prove her achilles heel against someone like Senator Rubio.
There will be pressure on her to duck out of some campaigning in New Hampshire, where she is unlikely to catch the neighbouring senator from Vermont on home turf, and concentrate on Nevada instead.There will be pressure on her to duck out of some campaigning in New Hampshire, where she is unlikely to catch the neighbouring senator from Vermont on home turf, and concentrate on Nevada instead.
But Clinton may have locked herself into a debate showdown with Sanders in New Hampshire on Thursday and a televised town hall on Wednesday.But Clinton may have locked herself into a debate showdown with Sanders in New Hampshire on Thursday and a televised town hall on Wednesday.
Running to Nevada may also look like panic for a campaign that is desperate to continue projecting an aura of inevitability. Expect furious paddling beneath the water as she changes course to tackle Sanders’ appeal to those under 50, and serene smiles on the surface. Running to Nevada may also look like panic for a campaign that is desperate to continue projecting an aura of inevitability. Expect furious paddling beneath the water as she changes course to tackle Sanders’ appeal to those younger than 50, and serene smiles on the surface.