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| A sigh of relief in Northern Virginia as Trump falls short in Iowa | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Mike Swiger, 60, a lawyer in Ashburn, Va., and a Republican, awoke Tuesday to what he hoped would be the first day of the After Trump phase of the 2016 campaign. | Mike Swiger, 60, a lawyer in Ashburn, Va., and a Republican, awoke Tuesday to what he hoped would be the first day of the After Trump phase of the 2016 campaign. |
| The real estate tycoon and reality-show celebrity had lost Iowa. Other important headlines came out of the Iowa caucuses, including the triumph of Ted Cruz, and Hillary Clinton’s arguably too-narrow victory over Bernie Sanders. But for Swiger and many other people interviewed Tuesday morning in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, the big news was what Donald Trump failed to do: He didn’t win. | The real estate tycoon and reality-show celebrity had lost Iowa. Other important headlines came out of the Iowa caucuses, including the triumph of Ted Cruz, and Hillary Clinton’s arguably too-narrow victory over Bernie Sanders. But for Swiger and many other people interviewed Tuesday morning in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, the big news was what Donald Trump failed to do: He didn’t win. |
| “I’m very pleased it was not a runaway Trump victory. I think Trump is a disaster for the Republican party,” Swiger said as he sat in the café of the Wegman’s supermarket in Sterling, Va., an aging exurb at the heart of the swingiest district in swing-state Virginia. | “I’m very pleased it was not a runaway Trump victory. I think Trump is a disaster for the Republican party,” Swiger said as he sat in the café of the Wegman’s supermarket in Sterling, Va., an aging exurb at the heart of the swingiest district in swing-state Virginia. |
| His only fear is that Trump could run as an independent: “He may just tell the Republican Party, ‘You’re fired’.” | His only fear is that Trump could run as an independent: “He may just tell the Republican Party, ‘You’re fired’.” |
| Votes, of all things, are the true game-changers in a long national election. After more than a year of campaigning, polling and punditry, some voters have now weighed in, albeit solely in a single state in the Corn Belt. Now the presidential primaries and caucuses will arrive weekly. In just four weeks, on March 1, Virginia voters will go to the polls as part of Super Tuesday. | Votes, of all things, are the true game-changers in a long national election. After more than a year of campaigning, polling and punditry, some voters have now weighed in, albeit solely in a single state in the Corn Belt. Now the presidential primaries and caucuses will arrive weekly. In just four weeks, on March 1, Virginia voters will go to the polls as part of Super Tuesday. |
| Trump’s defeat was welcomed by establishment-oriented 10th-district Republicans for reasons beyond their distaste for the man or their sense that he could prove unelectable in the fall. They also fear that his nomination would prove toxic to Republican candidates further down the ballot in November, potentially diminishing the GOP’s majorities in Congress. | Trump’s defeat was welcomed by establishment-oriented 10th-district Republicans for reasons beyond their distaste for the man or their sense that he could prove unelectable in the fall. They also fear that his nomination would prove toxic to Republican candidates further down the ballot in November, potentially diminishing the GOP’s majorities in Congress. |
| [Donald Trump’s surprisingly un-Trump-like Iowa concession] | [Donald Trump’s surprisingly un-Trump-like Iowa concession] |
| U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), a first-term congresswoman who represents the 10th District and is preparing for a potentially difficult re-election bid, is one of those people. | U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), a first-term congresswoman who represents the 10th District and is preparing for a potentially difficult re-election bid, is one of those people. |
| “What we need to do is have someone who can unite the party,” Comstock said Tuesday morning as she exited a House GOP caucus meeting on Capitol Hill. “We need everybody that we have in the party, we want them involved, and then we want to grow it.” | “What we need to do is have someone who can unite the party,” Comstock said Tuesday morning as she exited a House GOP caucus meeting on Capitol Hill. “We need everybody that we have in the party, we want them involved, and then we want to grow it.” |
| Iowa caucus results have often been over-interpreted (ask President Huckabee about that). Trump still leads by a significant margin in New Hampshire polls, as well as nationally. | Iowa caucus results have often been over-interpreted (ask President Huckabee about that). Trump still leads by a significant margin in New Hampshire polls, as well as nationally. |
| “I think Trump should have done a little better,” said Mike Youssef, 62, a Trump supporter in Leesburg. Youssef thinks Trump will do better in New Hampshire, because he thinks people in the Northeast will appreciate Trump’s business acumen more than the Iowans did. | “I think Trump should have done a little better,” said Mike Youssef, 62, a Trump supporter in Leesburg. Youssef thinks Trump will do better in New Hampshire, because he thinks people in the Northeast will appreciate Trump’s business acumen more than the Iowans did. |
| Still, Trump’s sagging Iowa finish, behind Cruz and barely ahead of Marco Rubio, may mean that the nominating process will no longer be trapped in the billionaire’s gravitational field. He looked visibly deflated in his surprisingly brief speech to campaign workers Monday night. | Still, Trump’s sagging Iowa finish, behind Cruz and barely ahead of Marco Rubio, may mean that the nominating process will no longer be trapped in the billionaire’s gravitational field. He looked visibly deflated in his surprisingly brief speech to campaign workers Monday night. |
| “Trump wears thin after a while,” said retired federal worker Joe Menickelly, 80, an independent in Ashburn, another 10th-District exurb. He said Trump is sinking and is now becoming an “interesting sidebar” to the contest. “It’s been wonderfully entertaining watching him abuse everyone,” he said. | “Trump wears thin after a while,” said retired federal worker Joe Menickelly, 80, an independent in Ashburn, another 10th-District exurb. He said Trump is sinking and is now becoming an “interesting sidebar” to the contest. “It’s been wonderfully entertaining watching him abuse everyone,” he said. |
| [Candidates craft N.H. end games after Iowa results tighten races] | [Candidates craft N.H. end games after Iowa results tighten races] |
| In Leesburg, James and Katie Murphy, who are evangelical Christians, said they were pleased to see Trump have a mediocre night. | In Leesburg, James and Katie Murphy, who are evangelical Christians, said they were pleased to see Trump have a mediocre night. |
| “I’m not sure how conservative Trump really is,” James Murphy said. | “I’m not sure how conservative Trump really is,” James Murphy said. |
| Financial adviser Mark Radcliffe, a Republican who likes Cruz, was also delighted by Trump’s 24-percent showing. | Financial adviser Mark Radcliffe, a Republican who likes Cruz, was also delighted by Trump’s 24-percent showing. |
| “He’s a pig. I don’t like the way he talks about women,” Radcliffe said. | “He’s a pig. I don’t like the way he talks about women,” Radcliffe said. |
| He said he’s tired of seeing Trump constantly on TV. Iowa’s results may temper the Trump media obsession. One obvious consequence of the all-Trump-all-the-time media coverage is that many ordinary people simply don’t know a lot about the other candidates. | He said he’s tired of seeing Trump constantly on TV. Iowa’s results may temper the Trump media obsession. One obvious consequence of the all-Trump-all-the-time media coverage is that many ordinary people simply don’t know a lot about the other candidates. |
| Most people are not obsessed with politics, and some, amazingly, had things to do Monday night other than watch the Iowa returns. They certainly know Trump at this point, and they know Hillary Clinton, because she’s been just about the most famous woman in America for nearly a quarter of a century. But they’re still learning about Cruz, Rubio and Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders, and working through their first impressions of the candidates. | Most people are not obsessed with politics, and some, amazingly, had things to do Monday night other than watch the Iowa returns. They certainly know Trump at this point, and they know Hillary Clinton, because she’s been just about the most famous woman in America for nearly a quarter of a century. But they’re still learning about Cruz, Rubio and Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders, and working through their first impressions of the candidates. |
| “He just looks so young and inexperienced,” said Elizabeth Freeman, 46, a retail manager and a Republican, speaking of Rubio. “His little baby face scares me a little.” | “He just looks so young and inexperienced,” said Elizabeth Freeman, 46, a retail manager and a Republican, speaking of Rubio. “His little baby face scares me a little.” |
| Wegman’s is a giant store off Route 28, smack in the middle of the 10th District — a sloppy brush stroke across the northern tier of the state, stretching from inside the Beltway all the way across the Shenandoah Valley to the West Virginia state line. | Wegman’s is a giant store off Route 28, smack in the middle of the 10th District — a sloppy brush stroke across the northern tier of the state, stretching from inside the Beltway all the way across the Shenandoah Valley to the West Virginia state line. |
| It’s a Republican district that skews purple. Republican Frank R. Wolf represented the district for more than three decades, and then in 2014 Comstock won the election to succeed him. It’s a dynamic area, with a growing immigrant population and booming exurbs. Barack Obama carried the district in 2008 and narrowly lost it to Mitt Romney in 2012. | It’s a Republican district that skews purple. Republican Frank R. Wolf represented the district for more than three decades, and then in 2014 Comstock won the election to succeed him. It’s a dynamic area, with a growing immigrant population and booming exurbs. Barack Obama carried the district in 2008 and narrowly lost it to Mitt Romney in 2012. |
| The 10th District is the sort of seat the Democrats know they must win to reverse their precipitous decline in Congress, which has left them more deeply in the minority than at any point since the late 1940s. Democratic srategists want to beat Comstock early on in her tenure to keep her from developing a brand identity the way Wolf did, which allowed him to survive a number of brutal election years. | The 10th District is the sort of seat the Democrats know they must win to reverse their precipitous decline in Congress, which has left them more deeply in the minority than at any point since the late 1940s. Democratic srategists want to beat Comstock early on in her tenure to keep her from developing a brand identity the way Wolf did, which allowed him to survive a number of brutal election years. |
| Democrats also believe that their best chance in these suburban congressional districts is during a high-turnout election with a presidential race at the top of the ballot – and ideally one in which the Republicans nominate a polarizing candidate who drives independents into the Democratic fold. | Democrats also believe that their best chance in these suburban congressional districts is during a high-turnout election with a presidential race at the top of the ballot – and ideally one in which the Republicans nominate a polarizing candidate who drives independents into the Democratic fold. |
| This time around Democrats in the 10th are set to nominate Lu Ann Bennett, a successful real estate executive (and ex-wife of former congressman James P. Moran Jr.) who has never held political office and who is already trying to tie Comstock to Cruz and Trump in her campaign pronouncements. | This time around Democrats in the 10th are set to nominate Lu Ann Bennett, a successful real estate executive (and ex-wife of former congressman James P. Moran Jr.) who has never held political office and who is already trying to tie Comstock to Cruz and Trump in her campaign pronouncements. |
| Comstock has endorsed Rubio, campaigned for him, and made clear she doesn’t want to see the Republicans nominate someone who is divisive. | Comstock has endorsed Rubio, campaigned for him, and made clear she doesn’t want to see the Republicans nominate someone who is divisive. |
| Out in Leesburg, in the heart of Comstock’s district, some of her constituents opined that Hillary Clinton should have done better in Iowa than a “virtual tie” — Bernie Sanders’s term for Clinton’s 0.2 percent margin of victory. | Out in Leesburg, in the heart of Comstock’s district, some of her constituents opined that Hillary Clinton should have done better in Iowa than a “virtual tie” — Bernie Sanders’s term for Clinton’s 0.2 percent margin of victory. |
| “It’s technically an upset of Clinton,” said Michael Kinney, 52, an attorney. | “It’s technically an upset of Clinton,” said Michael Kinney, 52, an attorney. |
| “I was surprised by Bernie being so close to Hillary,” said Ashley Wang, 30, who is in the insurance business and was heading to lunch with two friends in the historic district of Leesburg. | “I was surprised by Bernie being so close to Hillary,” said Ashley Wang, 30, who is in the insurance business and was heading to lunch with two friends in the historic district of Leesburg. |
| “She thought it was going to be more of a runaway,” said her friend Venee Galloway, 30, a business development director. “People are looking for answers she just doesn’t have.” | “She thought it was going to be more of a runaway,” said her friend Venee Galloway, 30, a business development director. “People are looking for answers she just doesn’t have.” |
| “I think that Hillary is in trouble,” said Felicia Thorpe, 36, an insurance broker. “Bernie is not a typical candidate who should be in contention for the presidency.” | “I think that Hillary is in trouble,” said Felicia Thorpe, 36, an insurance broker. “Bernie is not a typical candidate who should be in contention for the presidency.” |