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| Syrian refugees in Jordan: 'If they cut the coupons, we will probably die' | Syrian refugees in Jordan: 'If they cut the coupons, we will probably die' |
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| “Just look at how we’re living,” says Umm Majd, a Syrian who fled to Jordan. She stands in a tiny single-room apartment in Amman, the capital. It lies deep underground, next to a subterranean car park, and measures just two metres by two and a half. It is here that she, her husband and their two sons live out their exile. | “Just look at how we’re living,” says Umm Majd, a Syrian who fled to Jordan. She stands in a tiny single-room apartment in Amman, the capital. It lies deep underground, next to a subterranean car park, and measures just two metres by two and a half. It is here that she, her husband and their two sons live out their exile. |
| “Just look,” says Umm Majd, gesturing at the room. “That’s enough to understand what’s happening to Syrians here in Jordan.” | “Just look,” says Umm Majd, gesturing at the room. “That’s enough to understand what’s happening to Syrians here in Jordan.” |
| There are between 630,000 and 1.27 million Syrian refugees in the country, depending on whose estimate you believe. Like most of them, Umm Majd’s husband does not have the right to work – so he works illegally as a carwasher for 100 Jordanian dinars a month (about £100, half the minimum wage). The family collectively receives 40 dinars in food coupons from the UN – down from 80 a year ago. Their rent is 50 dinars, leaving them just 90 each month for any other living expenses. | There are between 630,000 and 1.27 million Syrian refugees in the country, depending on whose estimate you believe. Like most of them, Umm Majd’s husband does not have the right to work – so he works illegally as a carwasher for 100 Jordanian dinars a month (about £100, half the minimum wage). The family collectively receives 40 dinars in food coupons from the UN – down from 80 a year ago. Their rent is 50 dinars, leaving them just 90 each month for any other living expenses. |
| “Right now we’re not thinking of going to Europe,” says Umm Majd’s husband. “But if they cut our funding again then we’ll have to. If they cut the coupons we’d probably die.” | “Right now we’re not thinking of going to Europe,” says Umm Majd’s husband. “But if they cut our funding again then we’ll have to. If they cut the coupons we’d probably die.” |
| Umm Majd, 23, and her family are exactly the sort of people whose woes Britain hopes to alleviate at a much-hyped aid conference in London on Thursday. The Support Syria conference, co-hosted by the British government, has been touted as a means of stemming the European refugee crisis. “In the absence of an end to the civil war, it is the only way to solve this problem,” Justine Greening, the international development secretary, said last week. | Umm Majd, 23, and her family are exactly the sort of people whose woes Britain hopes to alleviate at a much-hyped aid conference in London on Thursday. The Support Syria conference, co-hosted by the British government, has been touted as a means of stemming the European refugee crisis. “In the absence of an end to the civil war, it is the only way to solve this problem,” Justine Greening, the international development secretary, said last week. |
| Related: 10 ways to manage the migration crisis | Related: 10 ways to manage the migration crisis |
| Ministers hope the pledging of significant aid and investment in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey – the countries where the vast majority of Syrian refugees still live – will encourage those states to improve the lives of Syrians. In particular, the west hopes refugees will be given the right to work, providing them with an incentive to stay in the Middle East. | Ministers hope the pledging of significant aid and investment in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey – the countries where the vast majority of Syrian refugees still live – will encourage those states to improve the lives of Syrians. In particular, the west hopes refugees will be given the right to work, providing them with an incentive to stay in the Middle East. |
| Both sides are talking a big game. In exchange for $1.6bn (£1.1bn) in aid, Jordan’s prime minister, Abdullah Ensour, claims he could eventually give 150,000 Syrians access to legal work. The central plank of his plan involves the creation of five new “special economic zones”: industrial parks bestowed with low export tariffs to Europe – where between 50-70% of jobs would be given to Syrians, and the remainder to Jordanians. | Both sides are talking a big game. In exchange for $1.6bn (£1.1bn) in aid, Jordan’s prime minister, Abdullah Ensour, claims he could eventually give 150,000 Syrians access to legal work. The central plank of his plan involves the creation of five new “special economic zones”: industrial parks bestowed with low export tariffs to Europe – where between 50-70% of jobs would be given to Syrians, and the remainder to Jordanians. |
| “What’s being offered in Jordan is quite interesting,” says Andrew Harper, head of the UN refugee agency in Jordan. “It’s a complete reform of the economic structure in Jordan [that will] enhance its ability to compete in Europe – in a way that will also incorporate the needs of refugees.” | “What’s being offered in Jordan is quite interesting,” says Andrew Harper, head of the UN refugee agency in Jordan. “It’s a complete reform of the economic structure in Jordan [that will] enhance its ability to compete in Europe – in a way that will also incorporate the needs of refugees.” |
| This is nevertheless only a best-case scenario. Interviews with refugees and officials in Jordan and Lebanon indicate that the strategy is no magic bullet, will take time to implement, and needs to be introduced alongside other approaches – including the formal resettlement of refugees within western countries. | This is nevertheless only a best-case scenario. Interviews with refugees and officials in Jordan and Lebanon indicate that the strategy is no magic bullet, will take time to implement, and needs to be introduced alongside other approaches – including the formal resettlement of refugees within western countries. |
| Pushed for details, one of the Jordanian officials overseeing the project suggests that the special economic zones are likely to provide only 2,000-30,000 jobs, at least a third of which would be reserved for Jordanians. | Pushed for details, one of the Jordanian officials overseeing the project suggests that the special economic zones are likely to provide only 2,000-30,000 jobs, at least a third of which would be reserved for Jordanians. |
| “It’s very difficult to tell,” says Saleh al-Kharabsheh, secretary general at Jordan’s ministry for planning and international cooperation. “Let’s assume you succeed in attracting investments of $200m – maybe you wouldn’t be able to generate more than 2,000 jobs. But if you attract new investments of $2bn, then maybe you would be able to create tens of thousands of jobs.” | “It’s very difficult to tell,” says Saleh al-Kharabsheh, secretary general at Jordan’s ministry for planning and international cooperation. “Let’s assume you succeed in attracting investments of $200m – maybe you wouldn’t be able to generate more than 2,000 jobs. But if you attract new investments of $2bn, then maybe you would be able to create tens of thousands of jobs.” |
| Most problematically, the scale of the investments will not be known for months. The EU has not yet agreed to give Jordan preferential import tariffs, while even a pilot zone is not expected until the summer – by which point another 300,000 refugees may have reached Europe. | Most problematically, the scale of the investments will not be known for months. The EU has not yet agreed to give Jordan preferential import tariffs, while even a pilot zone is not expected until the summer – by which point another 300,000 refugees may have reached Europe. |
| Then there is the issue of salaries. Kharabsheh says the monthly minimum wage at the zones would be 200 dinars. This would appeal to someone like Umm Majd’s husband, who is currently paid only half as much, and who would also welcome the prospect of legal work. But other Syrian interviewees point out that they already earn in the region of 200 dinars on the black market, meaning that a job in a new economic zone would not make a significant impact on their long-term plans. | Then there is the issue of salaries. Kharabsheh says the monthly minimum wage at the zones would be 200 dinars. This would appeal to someone like Umm Majd’s husband, who is currently paid only half as much, and who would also welcome the prospect of legal work. But other Syrian interviewees point out that they already earn in the region of 200 dinars on the black market, meaning that a job in a new economic zone would not make a significant impact on their long-term plans. |
| “It all depends on the salary,” says Abu Moatamen, a Syrian chef who already struggles to pay his 175 dinar rent with a 200 dinar wage. “If the salary is still low, how can we survive? How can we pay for rent? If they’re going to open factories, we need 400-450 dinars. But if it’s 200-250 – what can we do with that?” | “It all depends on the salary,” says Abu Moatamen, a Syrian chef who already struggles to pay his 175 dinar rent with a 200 dinar wage. “If the salary is still low, how can we survive? How can we pay for rent? If they’re going to open factories, we need 400-450 dinars. But if it’s 200-250 – what can we do with that?” |
| Some aid workers also doubt that Jordan genuinely wants to open the wider labour market to Syrians. While Jordan claims to be ready to offer 150,000 work permits to Syrians, sceptics see this as pre-conference bluster. Jordan has little to gain from anything that would make Syrians more likely to stay, and push Jordanians out of work, argues Rozan Khalifeh, a project leader at one of the country’s biggest refugee camps. | Some aid workers also doubt that Jordan genuinely wants to open the wider labour market to Syrians. While Jordan claims to be ready to offer 150,000 work permits to Syrians, sceptics see this as pre-conference bluster. Jordan has little to gain from anything that would make Syrians more likely to stay, and push Jordanians out of work, argues Rozan Khalifeh, a project leader at one of the country’s biggest refugee camps. |
| “I don’t think this is going to happen – and if it does happen it will take years,” says Khalifeh. “Will they give work permits for free? I don’t think so. Then all Syrians would work, and then what would Jordanians do? Jordan really does not want them to stay here for ever.” | “I don’t think this is going to happen – and if it does happen it will take years,” says Khalifeh. “Will they give work permits for free? I don’t think so. Then all Syrians would work, and then what would Jordanians do? Jordan really does not want them to stay here for ever.” |
| Given this complex context, supporters of the economic zones say they are at least a step in the right direction. “Creating an economic zone [for Syrians] is a pragmatic second-best solution,” says Alexander Betts, the head of Oxford University’s Refugee Studies Centre, who helped brainstorm and promote the concept of Jordanian economic zones. “The real solution is for refugees to have full access to work in host countries – but politically and pragmatically there are many barriers to that.” | Given this complex context, supporters of the economic zones say they are at least a step in the right direction. “Creating an economic zone [for Syrians] is a pragmatic second-best solution,” says Alexander Betts, the head of Oxford University’s Refugee Studies Centre, who helped brainstorm and promote the concept of Jordanian economic zones. “The real solution is for refugees to have full access to work in host countries – but politically and pragmatically there are many barriers to that.” |
| Related: Increasing aid for Syrian refugees is not the only option. Here are four more | |
| In the absence of any better system, he said the zones “can play an important pragmatic role in moving forward economic and educational opportunities, particularly the right to work, for Syrians in their region of origin”. | In the absence of any better system, he said the zones “can play an important pragmatic role in moving forward economic and educational opportunities, particularly the right to work, for Syrians in their region of origin”. |
| It is nevertheless only one element of a comprehensive response to the refugee crisis, Betts stressed. “It is not … going to dramatically reduce the numbers of people moving from the Middle East to Europe to seek asylum … Lots of European governments are presenting economic development as an alternative to asylum in Europe,” he said. “My argument is that we shouldn’t see it that way, and it is dangerous to see it that way.” | It is nevertheless only one element of a comprehensive response to the refugee crisis, Betts stressed. “It is not … going to dramatically reduce the numbers of people moving from the Middle East to Europe to seek asylum … Lots of European governments are presenting economic development as an alternative to asylum in Europe,” he said. “My argument is that we shouldn’t see it that way, and it is dangerous to see it that way.” |
| In Lebanon, where nearly one in five of the country’s estimated 5.5 million people is a Syrian refugee, the government is even less disposed towards liberalising its labour laws. | In Lebanon, where nearly one in five of the country’s estimated 5.5 million people is a Syrian refugee, the government is even less disposed towards liberalising its labour laws. |
| Lebanon’s social affairs minister, Rashid Derbas, agreed that the west needs to invest heavily in his country to help it deal with the crisis. But Derbas rejected Britain’s suggestion that Lebanon should change existing Syrian labour legislation, arguing that the absorption of such a high number of newcomers to an already underemployed local workforce would spark social unrest. | Lebanon’s social affairs minister, Rashid Derbas, agreed that the west needs to invest heavily in his country to help it deal with the crisis. But Derbas rejected Britain’s suggestion that Lebanon should change existing Syrian labour legislation, arguing that the absorption of such a high number of newcomers to an already underemployed local workforce would spark social unrest. |
| “We refuse categorically to change a single Lebanese law,” says Derbas, speaking by phone from Beirut. “Right now the Lebanese community suffers from poverty – there are 500,000 Lebanese in unemployment. It’s equally important to create jobs for them otherwise there will be a very dangerous situation between the Lebanese and the Syrians.” | “We refuse categorically to change a single Lebanese law,” says Derbas, speaking by phone from Beirut. “Right now the Lebanese community suffers from poverty – there are 500,000 Lebanese in unemployment. It’s equally important to create jobs for them otherwise there will be a very dangerous situation between the Lebanese and the Syrians.” |
| Job creation is also no substitute for other responses to the refugee crisis, Derbas adds. “I absolutely agree that [western] investment must be accompanied by the welcoming of 500,000 Syrians – at least – from the Middle East, and also the creation of a no-fly zone in Syria,” Derbas says. | Job creation is also no substitute for other responses to the refugee crisis, Derbas adds. “I absolutely agree that [western] investment must be accompanied by the welcoming of 500,000 Syrians – at least – from the Middle East, and also the creation of a no-fly zone in Syria,” Derbas says. |
| But in the short term, the west may struggle even to agree on whether and how to increase aid to countries like Lebanon and Jordan. For all the pre-conference hype, there are concerns in the humanitarian community that Thursday’s summit in London may not live up to its billing. | But in the short term, the west may struggle even to agree on whether and how to increase aid to countries like Lebanon and Jordan. For all the pre-conference hype, there are concerns in the humanitarian community that Thursday’s summit in London may not live up to its billing. |
| “What we have to do is ensure that all the effort and cost which has gone into London actually comes up with something more substantive than a communique, or some vague indication of intention,” says Harper. “If you are a refugee or the Jordanian government, communiques and broad intentions are not going to give you much confidence that something will follow in the foreseeable future.” | “What we have to do is ensure that all the effort and cost which has gone into London actually comes up with something more substantive than a communique, or some vague indication of intention,” says Harper. “If you are a refugee or the Jordanian government, communiques and broad intentions are not going to give you much confidence that something will follow in the foreseeable future.” |
| Additional reporting: Kotaiba al-Abdullah | Additional reporting: Kotaiba al-Abdullah |