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| Revealed: tax credit data exposes limits of Cameron's 'emergency brake' | Revealed: tax credit data exposes limits of Cameron's 'emergency brake' |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| A total of 84,000 EU migrant families on tax credits would have been affected by David Cameron’s “emergency brake” if it had been introduced four years ago, official figures reveal. | A total of 84,000 EU migrant families on tax credits would have been affected by David Cameron’s “emergency brake” if it had been introduced four years ago, official figures reveal. |
| The number – released by HMRC six months after it was first requested by the Guardian – appears far smaller than had been suggested by the prime minister in previous public statements justifying the plan. | The number – released by HMRC six months after it was first requested by the Guardian – appears far smaller than had been suggested by the prime minister in previous public statements justifying the plan. |
| “The number of EU families that claimed tax credits in 2013/14 and had been issued a NINO [national insurance number] during the previous four years was 84,000,” HMRC said. | “The number of EU families that claimed tax credits in 2013/14 and had been issued a NINO [national insurance number] during the previous four years was 84,000,” HMRC said. |
| Related: Migration 'brake' won't work, say critics on both sides of EU divide | Related: Migration 'brake' won't work, say critics on both sides of EU divide |
| On Tuesday, Cameron endorsed an EU proposal to introduce an “emergency brake” that would allow the UK to restrict the payment of tax credits and other in-work benefits to EU immigrants in the first four years after their arrival. | On Tuesday, Cameron endorsed an EU proposal to introduce an “emergency brake” that would allow the UK to restrict the payment of tax credits and other in-work benefits to EU immigrants in the first four years after their arrival. |
| The HMRC disclosure reveals that, if the brake had been introduced four years ago, 84,000 families would have had some or all of their benefits restricted. | The HMRC disclosure reveals that, if the brake had been introduced four years ago, 84,000 families would have had some or all of their benefits restricted. |
| Previously, Cameron had appeared to indicate that many more families would be affected. Speaking in November last year, he claimed 40% of recent EU migrants access in-work benefits – a claim he repeated in the Commons on Wednesday. | |
| The claim was made on the back of Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) calculations, also released in November, that estimated the number of European people that have resided in the UK for four years or less and are supported by in-work benefits is between 128,700 and 155,100. | |
| At the time, the government refused to explain the way the figures had been calculated, and a detailed breakdown of the figure cited. The UK statistics authority said the way those figures were presented by the DWP was “unsatisfactory”. | |
| A spokesperson for No 10 said on Thursday: “The proposal is designed to address the unnatural draw of our welfare system, which provides an additional incentive for people to move to the UK to work. As the DWP release in November demonstrated, 2013 data showed between 37% and 45% of all EU migrants are supported by the benefits system. Tax credits are just one part.” | A spokesperson for No 10 said on Thursday: “The proposal is designed to address the unnatural draw of our welfare system, which provides an additional incentive for people to move to the UK to work. As the DWP release in November demonstrated, 2013 data showed between 37% and 45% of all EU migrants are supported by the benefits system. Tax credits are just one part.” |
| Jonathan Portes, principal research fellow at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, said: “This new data shows that the prime minister’s claim that 40% of recently arrived European migrants were dependent on benefits was at best selective and misleading.” | Jonathan Portes, principal research fellow at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, said: “This new data shows that the prime minister’s claim that 40% of recently arrived European migrants were dependent on benefits was at best selective and misleading.” |
| Portes said the claim rates of newly arrived migrants were low and the overwhelming majority who applied for national insurance numbers were not on benefits. | Portes said the claim rates of newly arrived migrants were low and the overwhelming majority who applied for national insurance numbers were not on benefits. |
| This showed, he said, that “the PM’s focus on this issue is misguided – the ‘emergency brake’ will have only a modest impact on benefit receipt, and is highly unlikely to have a significant impact on migration flows.” | This showed, he said, that “the PM’s focus on this issue is misguided – the ‘emergency brake’ will have only a modest impact on benefit receipt, and is highly unlikely to have a significant impact on migration flows.” |
| Related: EU deal key points: what Cameron wanted and what he got | Related: EU deal key points: what Cameron wanted and what he got |
| A second set of figures – also obtained on Thursday four months after they were first requested – show that one in 10 “migrant couples” on tax credits actually include one UK national. HMRC considers a family to be an EU migrant family when at least one member of that family is a migrant from elsewhere in the EU. | |
| Because of this broad definition, it remains unclear how many British nationals and their children could be hit by an emergency brake targeted at “migrant families”. | |
| However, Number 10 said this was not the intent. “Our policy is to reduce the pull factor of our welfare system, not to affect British nationals,” a spokesman said. | |
| Downing Street is also facing questions about how its “emergency brake” on benefits for EU migrants will work, as campaigners on both sides of the referendum debate claimed it would have no impact. | |
| When asked how much the brake would reduce migration, whether it would apply to EU citizens already in the UK, and how it would affect the household claims of British nationals who marry EU migrants, Cameron’s deputy official spokesman acknowledged that many details about the mechanism had yet to be worked out. | When asked how much the brake would reduce migration, whether it would apply to EU citizens already in the UK, and how it would affect the household claims of British nationals who marry EU migrants, Cameron’s deputy official spokesman acknowledged that many details about the mechanism had yet to be worked out. |
| “We have a deal on the table and there is clearly some detail still to be filled in, and that is what we are doing over the next couple of weeks,” the No 10 aide said. | “We have a deal on the table and there is clearly some detail still to be filled in, and that is what we are doing over the next couple of weeks,” the No 10 aide said. |
| The figures were obtained through freedom of information requests to HMRC.The Guardian finally received both sets of information following a complaint to the Information Commissioner’s Office. | |