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| Political spotlight swings to famously slow-to-decide independents of N.H. | Political spotlight swings to famously slow-to-decide independents of N.H. |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| DERRY, N.H. — They’re unpredictable. Stubborn. Many, if not most, still don’t know whom they’re going to vote for — some don’t even know whether it’ll be a Republican or a Democrat. | |
| They are the famed New Hampshire independents — a bloc of swing voters who make up 40 percent of the electorate here and who are being intensively targeted by several candidates in both parties. | They are the famed New Hampshire independents — a bloc of swing voters who make up 40 percent of the electorate here and who are being intensively targeted by several candidates in both parties. |
| Cate Sides, 43, a graphic designer, is one of them. She has stopped answering the phone because of the incessant appeals, and she does not believe what she reads on all the fliers she’s received. | Cate Sides, 43, a graphic designer, is one of them. She has stopped answering the phone because of the incessant appeals, and she does not believe what she reads on all the fliers she’s received. |
| “It all comes down to character to me, somebody who has a proven record and can get the job done,” said Sides, who has narrowed her selection to a choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. “Hillary has a ton of experience. And Donald Trump, he’s a businessman. He knows how to accomplish what he needs to.” | “It all comes down to character to me, somebody who has a proven record and can get the job done,” said Sides, who has narrowed her selection to a choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. “Hillary has a ton of experience. And Donald Trump, he’s a businessman. He knows how to accomplish what he needs to.” |
| Sides said she will decide after watching the two debates — the Democrats’ on Thursday night and the Republicans’ on Saturday night. | |
| “It’s all about trustworthiness,” she said. “It’s all a gut feeling.” | “It’s all about trustworthiness,” she said. “It’s all a gut feeling.” |
| Top operatives on Democratic and Republican campaigns said that Sides is typical: Even after months in which candidates have spent millions of dollars trying to analyze, dissect and appeal to the whims of independents, those voters remain a highly volatile group with just five days to go. | Top operatives on Democratic and Republican campaigns said that Sides is typical: Even after months in which candidates have spent millions of dollars trying to analyze, dissect and appeal to the whims of independents, those voters remain a highly volatile group with just five days to go. |
| “They are unpredictable, they’re generally late deciders, and they can make emotive decisions as often as they make decisions based on practical political positioning,” said John Weaver, a strategist for Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) who has decades of experience targeting New Hampshire independents. | “They are unpredictable, they’re generally late deciders, and they can make emotive decisions as often as they make decisions based on practical political positioning,” said John Weaver, a strategist for Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) who has decades of experience targeting New Hampshire independents. |
| In January, a WBUR-MassInc poll found that 44 percent of undeclared voters said they were likely to vote in the Republican primary, while 35 percent said they planned to vote in the Democratic contest. Twenty-one percent were unsure of the contest in which they would vote, and many more said they could change their minds. | In January, a WBUR-MassInc poll found that 44 percent of undeclared voters said they were likely to vote in the Republican primary, while 35 percent said they planned to vote in the Democratic contest. Twenty-one percent were unsure of the contest in which they would vote, and many more said they could change their minds. |
| The survey found that on the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont stood to benefit the most from independents, while on the Republican side, Trump had the most support, followed by Kasich, Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) and former Florida governor Jeb Bush. But polling, especially of independents, can be unreliable, and small changes of opinion among the group could send some candidates forward and others home. | The survey found that on the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont stood to benefit the most from independents, while on the Republican side, Trump had the most support, followed by Kasich, Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) and former Florida governor Jeb Bush. But polling, especially of independents, can be unreliable, and small changes of opinion among the group could send some candidates forward and others home. |
| One theory here is that Sanders, who has captivated many independents across the country with his populist, outsider rhetoric, will dominate independents, just as he did in Iowa on Monday. In that race, Clinton eked out a narrow victory with the support of 56 percent of Democrats, but Sanders surged with the backing of nearly 70 percent of independents. If he repeats those numbers in New Hampshire, he would be likely to score a crushing victory there over Clinton. | One theory here is that Sanders, who has captivated many independents across the country with his populist, outsider rhetoric, will dominate independents, just as he did in Iowa on Monday. In that race, Clinton eked out a narrow victory with the support of 56 percent of Democrats, but Sanders surged with the backing of nearly 70 percent of independents. If he repeats those numbers in New Hampshire, he would be likely to score a crushing victory there over Clinton. |
| “The Bernie message — the Wall Street establishment, the rigged economy — is very powerful with these independent voters, and that’s true on both sides of the aisle,” Sanders strategist Tad Devine said. “A lot of what Trump is seeing is because of that.” | “The Bernie message — the Wall Street establishment, the rigged economy — is very powerful with these independent voters, and that’s true on both sides of the aisle,” Sanders strategist Tad Devine said. “A lot of what Trump is seeing is because of that.” |
| Another theory is that Trump — the brash outsider who has rallied the frustrated and angry masses who feel silenced by the power structure of both parties — will become a magnet for independent voters. | Another theory is that Trump — the brash outsider who has rallied the frustrated and angry masses who feel silenced by the power structure of both parties — will become a magnet for independent voters. |
| “Personality is something that undeclared voters focus on,” said Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College. “I talk to a lot of groups and they say, ‘I’m for Trump.’ I say, ‘If Trump weren’t on the ballot, who would you vote for?’ And they say, ‘Bernie Sanders.’ It’s an anti-Washington, anti-business-as-usual vote.” | “Personality is something that undeclared voters focus on,” said Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College. “I talk to a lot of groups and they say, ‘I’m for Trump.’ I say, ‘If Trump weren’t on the ballot, who would you vote for?’ And they say, ‘Bernie Sanders.’ It’s an anti-Washington, anti-business-as-usual vote.” |
| And then there’s a counter-theory to that theory, which goes like this: Independents who might otherwise be drawn to Sanders will choose to vote in the Republican primary because they are disgusted by Trump. | And then there’s a counter-theory to that theory, which goes like this: Independents who might otherwise be drawn to Sanders will choose to vote in the Republican primary because they are disgusted by Trump. |
| “Does all this attention around Trump draw people who sometimes vote in Republican primaries to make sure they go to the polls, pick up a Republican ballot and keep Trump from taking over the Republican Party? It could,” said Grant Bosse, editorial page editor at the Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper, which has been in Trump’s crosshairs for its anti-Trump editorials and its endorsement of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. | “Does all this attention around Trump draw people who sometimes vote in Republican primaries to make sure they go to the polls, pick up a Republican ballot and keep Trump from taking over the Republican Party? It could,” said Grant Bosse, editorial page editor at the Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper, which has been in Trump’s crosshairs for its anti-Trump editorials and its endorsement of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. |
| The WBUR-MassInc survey found that if undeclared voters flock to the Republican primary, Trump’s support could fall. Although he performs well among independents who are likely to vote in the Republican race, those who are undecided about which primary to vote in are less supportive of Trump and more supportive of Kasich and Bush. | The WBUR-MassInc survey found that if undeclared voters flock to the Republican primary, Trump’s support could fall. Although he performs well among independents who are likely to vote in the Republican race, those who are undecided about which primary to vote in are less supportive of Trump and more supportive of Kasich and Bush. |
| With his town hall meetings, advertising and field organizing, Kasich is striving to persuade these voters to lift him on the Republican side. For instance, he is highlighting his expansion of Medicaid in Ohio under President Obama’s health-care law. This is considered an apostasy by many conservative Republicans, but the Kasich campaign’s internal polling shows that the position is overwhelmingly popular with undeclared New Hampshire voters. | With his town hall meetings, advertising and field organizing, Kasich is striving to persuade these voters to lift him on the Republican side. For instance, he is highlighting his expansion of Medicaid in Ohio under President Obama’s health-care law. This is considered an apostasy by many conservative Republicans, but the Kasich campaign’s internal polling shows that the position is overwhelmingly popular with undeclared New Hampshire voters. |
| “They get that he’s someone different than a normal Republican,” Weaver said. “They’re attracted to him because they see he’s a guy that cares about average Americans, the people who live in the shadows and don’t have a voice.” | “They get that he’s someone different than a normal Republican,” Weaver said. “They’re attracted to him because they see he’s a guy that cares about average Americans, the people who live in the shadows and don’t have a voice.” |
| There is historic precedent for independent voters being determinative in New Hampshire primaries. In 2000, John McCain entranced so many of them with his anti-establishment, straight-talk campaign that independents voted overwhelmingly in the Republican primary, costing insurgent Bill Bradley enough votes in the Democratic primary to let then-Vice President Al Gore squeak by with a win. | There is historic precedent for independent voters being determinative in New Hampshire primaries. In 2000, John McCain entranced so many of them with his anti-establishment, straight-talk campaign that independents voted overwhelmingly in the Republican primary, costing insurgent Bill Bradley enough votes in the Democratic primary to let then-Vice President Al Gore squeak by with a win. |
| In 2008, New Hampshire independents were a critical element of McCain’s come-from-behind victory, which propelled him to the Republican nomination. | In 2008, New Hampshire independents were a critical element of McCain’s come-from-behind victory, which propelled him to the Republican nomination. |
| Clinton, the national Democratic front-runner, has trailed Sanders significantly in recent polls in New Hampshire and might benefit if independents opt to vote in the Republican primary. | Clinton, the national Democratic front-runner, has trailed Sanders significantly in recent polls in New Hampshire and might benefit if independents opt to vote in the Republican primary. |
| “If the Republican race turns really hot and somebody catches fire — like a Kasich, for example — there might be a movement of the undeclareds to vote in the Republican primary, and that would probably help Hillary,” said Terry Shumaker, a prominent New Hampshire Democrat and Clinton supporter. | “If the Republican race turns really hot and somebody catches fire — like a Kasich, for example — there might be a movement of the undeclareds to vote in the Republican primary, and that would probably help Hillary,” said Terry Shumaker, a prominent New Hampshire Democrat and Clinton supporter. |
| Clinton’s campaign officials would not go so far in their analysis. They said that Clinton’s message and the campaign’s outreach efforts are aimed at independent voters as well as registered Democrats. | Clinton’s campaign officials would not go so far in their analysis. They said that Clinton’s message and the campaign’s outreach efforts are aimed at independent voters as well as registered Democrats. |
| “We target the whole universe of the electorate,” said Mike Vlacich, Clinton’s New Hampshire state director. “Independents will self-select where they want to go.” | “We target the whole universe of the electorate,” said Mike Vlacich, Clinton’s New Hampshire state director. “Independents will self-select where they want to go.” |
| At a rally Tuesday morning in Derry, Clinton touted her decades of advocacy for progressive policies and her agenda on pocketbook economic concerns, college affordability and gun control. Clinton’s advisers said these issues resonate especially with independent voters here. | At a rally Tuesday morning in Derry, Clinton touted her decades of advocacy for progressive policies and her agenda on pocketbook economic concerns, college affordability and gun control. Clinton’s advisers said these issues resonate especially with independent voters here. |
| “The reality is that we know we have an uphill climb in New Hampshire,” Vlacich said. “She wasn’t trying to hide that. But she’s also saying to folks that it’s worth fighting for, no matter what. Our hope is that independents will appreciate that that’s the kind of candidate she is and ultimately the kind of president she’ll be.” | “The reality is that we know we have an uphill climb in New Hampshire,” Vlacich said. “She wasn’t trying to hide that. But she’s also saying to folks that it’s worth fighting for, no matter what. Our hope is that independents will appreciate that that’s the kind of candidate she is and ultimately the kind of president she’ll be.” |
| The Sanders campaign is trying to set up New Hampshire as a case study of both Democratic candidates’ ability to win over independent voters in the general election. His advisers hope that a victory by Sanders in next Tuesday’s primary can convince Democratic establishment leaders, who have been critical if not outright hostile to Sanders’s candidacy, that he could be a credible standard bearer for the party. | The Sanders campaign is trying to set up New Hampshire as a case study of both Democratic candidates’ ability to win over independent voters in the general election. His advisers hope that a victory by Sanders in next Tuesday’s primary can convince Democratic establishment leaders, who have been critical if not outright hostile to Sanders’s candidacy, that he could be a credible standard bearer for the party. |
| “If she loses here, it raises critical questions about her ability to attract independent voters, which will be a key to the general election,” Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said. | “If she loses here, it raises critical questions about her ability to attract independent voters, which will be a key to the general election,” Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said. |
| This indecision weighs on voters. Emilie Major, 25, a business owner in New London, still does not know whether she will cast a Democratic or a Republican ballot. | This indecision weighs on voters. Emilie Major, 25, a business owner in New London, still does not know whether she will cast a Democratic or a Republican ballot. |
| She leans toward Republicans and would like to oppose Trump. “He’s a loose cannon,” she said. “A pinless grenade.” | She leans toward Republicans and would like to oppose Trump. “He’s a loose cannon,” she said. “A pinless grenade.” |
| But Major also is drawn to Sanders and plans to attend one of his events this week to hear more from him. | But Major also is drawn to Sanders and plans to attend one of his events this week to hear more from him. |
| “I’m not feeling the Bern,” Major said. “But I think he could force a change, and that could be a good thing.” | “I’m not feeling the Bern,” Major said. “But I think he could force a change, and that could be a good thing.” |
| Scott Clement in Washington, John Wagner in Concord, N.H., Abby Phillip in Derry, N.H., and Rosalind S. Helderman in New London, N.H., contributed to this report. | Scott Clement in Washington, John Wagner in Concord, N.H., Abby Phillip in Derry, N.H., and Rosalind S. Helderman in New London, N.H., contributed to this report. |