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| New Hampshire result throws up more questions than answers for Republicans New Hampshire result throws up more questions than answers for Republicans | |
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| Top Republicans had hoped New Hampshire would winnow the field of candidates, shorten a seemingly endless campaign and finally bring their party closer to the White House with anyone not named Donald Trump. Instead, American conservatives woke up on Wednesday to a wide-open race even more uncertain than the day before. | Top Republicans had hoped New Hampshire would winnow the field of candidates, shorten a seemingly endless campaign and finally bring their party closer to the White House with anyone not named Donald Trump. Instead, American conservatives woke up on Wednesday to a wide-open race even more uncertain than the day before. |
| “Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents,” the mantra went, until grassroots movements frustrated parties’ control over the election year – frustration that reached a new peak in the sweeping victories on Tuesday by Trump and Bernie Sanders, two men campaigning as outsiders who mean to shake up the status quo. | “Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents,” the mantra went, until grassroots movements frustrated parties’ control over the election year – frustration that reached a new peak in the sweeping victories on Tuesday by Trump and Bernie Sanders, two men campaigning as outsiders who mean to shake up the status quo. |
| Solidifying the anti-establishment mood was a stronger-than-expected showing here on Tuesday by Ted Cruz, the Texas senator who won the Iowa caucuses. Until now, New Hampshire’s social moderates had typically rebuked the ideological choices of Iowa’s evangelical electorate. | Solidifying the anti-establishment mood was a stronger-than-expected showing here on Tuesday by Ted Cruz, the Texas senator who won the Iowa caucuses. Until now, New Hampshire’s social moderates had typically rebuked the ideological choices of Iowa’s evangelical electorate. |
| The night was supposedly meant for Marco Rubio, who landed in the state last week fresh off a relatively successful performance in Iowa. The Florida senator exceeded expectations in the caucuses, placing third behind Trump by a razor-thin margin. | The night was supposedly meant for Marco Rubio, who landed in the state last week fresh off a relatively successful performance in Iowa. The Florida senator exceeded expectations in the caucuses, placing third behind Trump by a razor-thin margin. |
| But a brutal moment in Saturday night’s Republican debate, in which Rubio parroted a talking point – verbatim, three times – during an exchange with New Jersey governor Chris Christie, threw his standing into question. Rubio’s rivals have long sought to pin him as a scripted package who relies too much on prepared lines, a reputation he played into just as New Hampshire’s late-deciding voters were making up their minds. | But a brutal moment in Saturday night’s Republican debate, in which Rubio parroted a talking point – verbatim, three times – during an exchange with New Jersey governor Chris Christie, threw his standing into question. Rubio’s rivals have long sought to pin him as a scripted package who relies too much on prepared lines, a reputation he played into just as New Hampshire’s late-deciding voters were making up their minds. |
| The other establishment alternatives – Ohio governor John Kasich, former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Christie – had spent the greater part of 2015 imploring voters in New Hampshire to choose record over rhetoric, seemingly to little avail. They were, in their own words, the adults in the room. Kasich’s month of campaigning in New Hampshire at least paid off – he came in second place with almost 16% – but he lacks recognition and appeal in the primary states to come. | The other establishment alternatives – Ohio governor John Kasich, former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Christie – had spent the greater part of 2015 imploring voters in New Hampshire to choose record over rhetoric, seemingly to little avail. They were, in their own words, the adults in the room. Kasich’s month of campaigning in New Hampshire at least paid off – he came in second place with almost 16% – but he lacks recognition and appeal in the primary states to come. |
| Christie derided Rubio and Cruz as first-term senators belonging more to a student government body than inside the Oval Office. Kasich made a quieter pitch rooted in practicality, drawing largely on his success in balancing the budget in Ohio. And Bush, whose campaign struggled to take off despite his famous family, assumed the role of chief attack dog against Trump as part of an attempt to regain control of a party losing its way. | Christie derided Rubio and Cruz as first-term senators belonging more to a student government body than inside the Oval Office. Kasich made a quieter pitch rooted in practicality, drawing largely on his success in balancing the budget in Ohio. And Bush, whose campaign struggled to take off despite his famous family, assumed the role of chief attack dog against Trump as part of an attempt to regain control of a party losing its way. |
| Even so, neither candidate was able to break through a crowded field, raising anxiety among party elites over an early failure to coalesce around an alternative to Trump and Cruz. Despite the spin quickly emerging out of this second test, many feared that little – even the return of George W Bush or millions left in the bank – could stop the billionaire or senator. | Even so, neither candidate was able to break through a crowded field, raising anxiety among party elites over an early failure to coalesce around an alternative to Trump and Cruz. Despite the spin quickly emerging out of this second test, many feared that little – even the return of George W Bush or millions left in the bank – could stop the billionaire or senator. |
| Indeed, little changed on Tuesday: Kasich’s strong second-place finish was accompanied by doubts over his ability to capitalize; Bush lived to see another day but still faces an uphill battle; and Rubio crashed and burned at what could be a turning point for his campaign. Christie returned to New Jersey to “take a deep breath”. | Indeed, little changed on Tuesday: Kasich’s strong second-place finish was accompanied by doubts over his ability to capitalize; Bush lived to see another day but still faces an uphill battle; and Rubio crashed and burned at what could be a turning point for his campaign. Christie returned to New Jersey to “take a deep breath”. |
| Rubio’s supporters insisted on Tuesday that he remains best placed to unify the party, drawing on his popularity among grassroots conservatives and equal admiration from the so-called “establishment” wing. But the senator now heads to South Carolina in the wake of a bruising defeat, stunting the momentum Rubio and his allies had labored to create after Iowa. | Rubio’s supporters insisted on Tuesday that he remains best placed to unify the party, drawing on his popularity among grassroots conservatives and equal admiration from the so-called “establishment” wing. But the senator now heads to South Carolina in the wake of a bruising defeat, stunting the momentum Rubio and his allies had labored to create after Iowa. |
| “I want to tell you that disappointment is not on you,” Rubio told supporters who packed into a hotel ballroom on Tuesday night. “It’s on me. It’s on me.” | “I want to tell you that disappointment is not on you,” Rubio told supporters who packed into a hotel ballroom on Tuesday night. “It’s on me. It’s on me.” |
| “I did not do well on Saturday night. So listen to this: that will never happen again.” | “I did not do well on Saturday night. So listen to this: that will never happen again.” |
| Kasich spent more time in New Hampshire than any other candidate, but he also stood the most to gain following Rubio’s robotic debate performance. In a state where many voters historically choose their candidate just before primary day, the Ohio governor emerged as the anybody-but-Trump alternative and finished with 15.9% of the New Hampshire vote. | Kasich spent more time in New Hampshire than any other candidate, but he also stood the most to gain following Rubio’s robotic debate performance. In a state where many voters historically choose their candidate just before primary day, the Ohio governor emerged as the anybody-but-Trump alternative and finished with 15.9% of the New Hampshire vote. |
| His state director in New Hampshire, Bruce Burke, said the key to Kasich’s surge “was really the governor’s message of staying positive, running a great campaign and having a great ground game”. | His state director in New Hampshire, Bruce Burke, said the key to Kasich’s surge “was really the governor’s message of staying positive, running a great campaign and having a great ground game”. |
| “Maybe there were some last-minute deciders,” Burke told the Guardian, “but this campaign began back in July with its first town hall, and he had 106. It was just a long grind – town hall after town hall, meeting after meeting – laying the foundation for a solid organization and message in the state.” | “Maybe there were some last-minute deciders,” Burke told the Guardian, “but this campaign began back in July with its first town hall, and he had 106. It was just a long grind – town hall after town hall, meeting after meeting – laying the foundation for a solid organization and message in the state.” |
| Kasich’s chief strategist, John Weaver, said the campaign was “fantastically happy” with finishing second in New Hampshire. Kasich said in his own version: “The light overcame the darkness of negative campaigning” after “tens of millions spent against us.” | Kasich’s chief strategist, John Weaver, said the campaign was “fantastically happy” with finishing second in New Hampshire. Kasich said in his own version: “The light overcame the darkness of negative campaigning” after “tens of millions spent against us.” |
| Whether he can survive an avalanche of attack ads in the weeks ahead, or fundraise in states where he was polling within the margin of error, remain the questions looming over his campaign. | Whether he can survive an avalanche of attack ads in the weeks ahead, or fundraise in states where he was polling within the margin of error, remain the questions looming over his campaign. |
| John Sununu, the former New Hampshire senator who supports Kasich, said the Ohio governor’s performance on Tuesday was “an enormous sign that he can put together a broad coalition, across the entire spectrum of Republican primary voters, and carry on, including adding resources in the south”. | John Sununu, the former New Hampshire senator who supports Kasich, said the Ohio governor’s performance on Tuesday was “an enormous sign that he can put together a broad coalition, across the entire spectrum of Republican primary voters, and carry on, including adding resources in the south”. |
| But waiting in the southern states will be Bush, whose brother George will join him on the campaign trail later this week, along with the power of his Super Pac. Cruz has also dug into his campaign’s deep pockets to pay for operations in South Carolina, which votes on 20 February, and in the 14 “Super Tuesday” states that vote on 1 March – including seven across the Bible belt. | But waiting in the southern states will be Bush, whose brother George will join him on the campaign trail later this week, along with the power of his Super Pac. Cruz has also dug into his campaign’s deep pockets to pay for operations in South Carolina, which votes on 20 February, and in the 14 “Super Tuesday” states that vote on 1 March – including seven across the Bible belt. |
| Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, Trump held a comfortable lead in South Carolina polling averages, trailed by Cruz, who has appealed to evangelicals, and then Rubio and Bush, who had a stronger showing than expected at 11% in New Hampshire. | Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, Trump held a comfortable lead in South Carolina polling averages, trailed by Cruz, who has appealed to evangelicals, and then Rubio and Bush, who had a stronger showing than expected at 11% in New Hampshire. |
| “While the reality TV star is still doing well, it looks like you all have reset the race,” Bush told supporters in Manchester. “This campaign is not dead. We’re going to South Carolina.” | “While the reality TV star is still doing well, it looks like you all have reset the race,” Bush told supporters in Manchester. “This campaign is not dead. We’re going to South Carolina.” |
| Outside a high school gym on Tuesday in Exeter, New Hampshire, Richard Pang said he had supported Rubio until the weekend debate, when he thought the senator stumbled – and Bush effectively held ground. “He really drew the blood of Donald Trump,” Pang said of Bush. | Outside a high school gym on Tuesday in Exeter, New Hampshire, Richard Pang said he had supported Rubio until the weekend debate, when he thought the senator stumbled – and Bush effectively held ground. “He really drew the blood of Donald Trump,” Pang said of Bush. |
| The prospect of a Sanders-Trump insurgency on the rise, with a side of Cruz, has also boiled the blood of another moderate Republican who could muddle the non-Trump field: Michael Bloomberg. The billionaire has threatened to run as an independent in a race he has so far found “distressingly banal, and an outrage and an insult to the voters”. | The prospect of a Sanders-Trump insurgency on the rise, with a side of Cruz, has also boiled the blood of another moderate Republican who could muddle the non-Trump field: Michael Bloomberg. The billionaire has threatened to run as an independent in a race he has so far found “distressingly banal, and an outrage and an insult to the voters”. |
| For one more night, though, many Republicans were left shrugging about the prospect of an increasingly drawn-out and volatile race. And Democrats, though contending with an “establishment versus outsider” matchup of their own, took a victory lap. | For one more night, though, many Republicans were left shrugging about the prospect of an increasingly drawn-out and volatile race. And Democrats, though contending with an “establishment versus outsider” matchup of their own, took a victory lap. |
| “Donald Trump’s victory tonight in New Hampshire should send a clear message to independent-minded and moderate Americans across the country,” Florida congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement. “The rise of extreme elements in the Republican primary isn’t just entertainment any more, it has overtaken the GOP.” | “Donald Trump’s victory tonight in New Hampshire should send a clear message to independent-minded and moderate Americans across the country,” Florida congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement. “The rise of extreme elements in the Republican primary isn’t just entertainment any more, it has overtaken the GOP.” |
| • Additional reporting by Tom McCarthy in Exeter and Paul Owen in Manchester | • Additional reporting by Tom McCarthy in Exeter and Paul Owen in Manchester |