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Slothful and slapdash: the housing bill tells us everything about the Tories Slothful and slapdash: the housing bill tells us everything about the Tories
(7 months later)
Politics is a Darwinian business, and failure can be cruelly punished. But so can success, as the Conservatives are now finding out. The party rode into the election with an enviably minimalist campaign message – you remember it, rhymes with “long-term economic flan” – and a laundry list of eyecatching policies that they would, oh so regretfully, ditch at the merest whiff of coalition negotiations.Politics is a Darwinian business, and failure can be cruelly punished. But so can success, as the Conservatives are now finding out. The party rode into the election with an enviably minimalist campaign message – you remember it, rhymes with “long-term economic flan” – and a laundry list of eyecatching policies that they would, oh so regretfully, ditch at the merest whiff of coalition negotiations.
And then they won an overall majority. Their backbenchers were thrilled; those pesky Liberal Democrats had been crushed, and now the country would see the full glorious might of a full-bore Conservative government. Sunlit uplands, good times, boogie.And then they won an overall majority. Their backbenchers were thrilled; those pesky Liberal Democrats had been crushed, and now the country would see the full glorious might of a full-bore Conservative government. Sunlit uplands, good times, boogie.
Only, it hasn’t worked out like that. A sticky autumn, thanks to the tax credits fiasco, has turned into a sluggish spring. This week I’ve been texting round policy wonks and specialist journalists to see if there is anything interesting coming up in terms of legislation that has passed me by. Is there a long-term non-economic plan? “There’s a white paper due soon,” said my education mole, before adding: “Whether it’s interesting is another matter.” What about welfare? “Well, there’s WASPI [the campaign against state pension inequality for women],” said my designated DWP-er. “And of course the rollout of universal credit.” We both paused to reflect that Godot will probably arrive before universal credit.Only, it hasn’t worked out like that. A sticky autumn, thanks to the tax credits fiasco, has turned into a sluggish spring. This week I’ve been texting round policy wonks and specialist journalists to see if there is anything interesting coming up in terms of legislation that has passed me by. Is there a long-term non-economic plan? “There’s a white paper due soon,” said my education mole, before adding: “Whether it’s interesting is another matter.” What about welfare? “Well, there’s WASPI [the campaign against state pension inequality for women],” said my designated DWP-er. “And of course the rollout of universal credit.” We both paused to reflect that Godot will probably arrive before universal credit.
‘Well, I suppose Cameron kept the seat warm’ is no one’s idea of a great political epitaph‘Well, I suppose Cameron kept the seat warm’ is no one’s idea of a great political epitaph
Over at health, meanwhile, the focus is on resolving the junior doctors’ contract and preventing further strikes; Channel 4’s Jon Snow complains that Jeremy Hunt hasn’t agreed to an interview since July 2013 to talk about wider issues in the NHS. At defence, it’s all about scheduling the Trident renewal vote to cause maximum pain to Labour. And while David Cameron made a big speech about prison reform this week, behind the scenes Michael Gove is mostly occupied with unpicking the work of his predecessor as justice secretary. Can you call that reform? That’s un-form, surely.Over at health, meanwhile, the focus is on resolving the junior doctors’ contract and preventing further strikes; Channel 4’s Jon Snow complains that Jeremy Hunt hasn’t agreed to an interview since July 2013 to talk about wider issues in the NHS. At defence, it’s all about scheduling the Trident renewal vote to cause maximum pain to Labour. And while David Cameron made a big speech about prison reform this week, behind the scenes Michael Gove is mostly occupied with unpicking the work of his predecessor as justice secretary. Can you call that reform? That’s un-form, surely.
This all bolsters my hunch that somewhere in the bowels of Whitehall is George Osborne’s 2016 Year Planner, which is empty save for a Post-it note that reads “Argue about Europe”. But here again, the government is currently a victim of its own success. The leave campaign is not looking enough of a dead cert to persuade some of the more faint-hearted Conservative MPs to swing behind it, while the more ebullient Eurosceptics can no longer gesture to the spectre of Ukip – as they did so successfully in the last parliament – to gain concessions from the top. The Ukip threat is not quite so terrifying now it only has one MP who is trapped in a loveless marriage with a leader who didn’t make it to the Commons.This all bolsters my hunch that somewhere in the bowels of Whitehall is George Osborne’s 2016 Year Planner, which is empty save for a Post-it note that reads “Argue about Europe”. But here again, the government is currently a victim of its own success. The leave campaign is not looking enough of a dead cert to persuade some of the more faint-hearted Conservative MPs to swing behind it, while the more ebullient Eurosceptics can no longer gesture to the spectre of Ukip – as they did so successfully in the last parliament – to gain concessions from the top. The Ukip threat is not quite so terrifying now it only has one MP who is trapped in a loveless marriage with a leader who didn’t make it to the Commons.
Related: David Cameron’s mother has spoken out against cuts - will her son finally listen? | Patrick Butler
Those two factors mean the promised Tory civil war is more like a fight in a pub car park: messy, yes, but contained. There are valiant efforts to talk up the split – not least from leftwingers who want to distract from Labour’s own divisions over Trident – but an existential threat to the future of the Conservative party has not yet materialised. There’s a yawning gap in the national conversation where minor acts of disloyalty and the subsequent application of thumbscrews were supposed to go.Those two factors mean the promised Tory civil war is more like a fight in a pub car park: messy, yes, but contained. There are valiant efforts to talk up the split – not least from leftwingers who want to distract from Labour’s own divisions over Trident – but an existential threat to the future of the Conservative party has not yet materialised. There’s a yawning gap in the national conversation where minor acts of disloyalty and the subsequent application of thumbscrews were supposed to go.
Perhaps all this will change when David Cameron finally comes back from Brussels brandishing an underwhelming renegotiation deal and his ministers are allowed to question it in public. Perhaps most voters won’t mind if it feels like the government is not pursuing a grand vision. After all, perpetual revolution is usually associated with the kind of regime that goes big on gold statues and renaming Thursdays after the president.Perhaps all this will change when David Cameron finally comes back from Brussels brandishing an underwhelming renegotiation deal and his ministers are allowed to question it in public. Perhaps most voters won’t mind if it feels like the government is not pursuing a grand vision. After all, perpetual revolution is usually associated with the kind of regime that goes big on gold statues and renaming Thursdays after the president.
But there is a danger for any government that ends up with a legislative programme of odds and ends, and no big theme to tie it together – not least the affront it presents to any leader with even a smidgen of ego about how he will be remembered.But there is a danger for any government that ends up with a legislative programme of odds and ends, and no big theme to tie it together – not least the affront it presents to any leader with even a smidgen of ego about how he will be remembered.
That’s why the hunt is on for a “legacy” programme, to be pursued once the EU referendum is over, which will make us associate the Cameron era with more than grinding austerity. (“Well, I suppose he kept the seat warm”, is no one’s idea of a great political epitaph.)That’s why the hunt is on for a “legacy” programme, to be pursued once the EU referendum is over, which will make us associate the Cameron era with more than grinding austerity. (“Well, I suppose he kept the seat warm”, is no one’s idea of a great political epitaph.)
That said, many of the people I spoke to said that they preferred glacial boredom to the government’s other setting – inexplicably rushed reform. “Sometimes I think they forget about the fixed-term parliament act,” one opposition politician told me. “They are still running for the tape.”That said, many of the people I spoke to said that they preferred glacial boredom to the government’s other setting – inexplicably rushed reform. “Sometimes I think they forget about the fixed-term parliament act,” one opposition politician told me. “They are still running for the tape.”
Related: Experts say housing bill signals end of the road for affordable housing
The housing bill passing through parliament at the moment is an obvious example. It is notable mainly for the paucity of its ambition (it does not solve the fundamental cause of the housing crisis, which is the lack of supply) and the downright counter-productive nature of many of its proposals.The housing bill passing through parliament at the moment is an obvious example. It is notable mainly for the paucity of its ambition (it does not solve the fundamental cause of the housing crisis, which is the lack of supply) and the downright counter-productive nature of many of its proposals.
Once more, this about the Tories being undone by their own victory, as they’ve ended up committed to a scattergun set of policies which add up to a bleak picture for anyone who doesn’t own their own home. The extension of right to buy to social housing, announced during the election campaign with an immense flourish, has turned into a long, nitpicking row with housing associations, which don’t want to sell off properties they don’t believe they can replace.Once more, this about the Tories being undone by their own victory, as they’ve ended up committed to a scattergun set of policies which add up to a bleak picture for anyone who doesn’t own their own home. The extension of right to buy to social housing, announced during the election campaign with an immense flourish, has turned into a long, nitpicking row with housing associations, which don’t want to sell off properties they don’t believe they can replace.
“Pay to stay” – the idea that households earning more than £30,000 outside London, and £40,000 within it, should pay market rates rather than social rents – will force 60,000 “hard-working families” out of their council homes, according to the Local Government Association. And then there’s the plan to take housing benefit away from 18- to 21-year-olds, which it’s hard to see as anything other than a punishment for the crime of not voting at the same rate as their parents and grandparents. Some of those affected will undoubtedly end up homeless, and could even cost the state more as a result.“Pay to stay” – the idea that households earning more than £30,000 outside London, and £40,000 within it, should pay market rates rather than social rents – will force 60,000 “hard-working families” out of their council homes, according to the Local Government Association. And then there’s the plan to take housing benefit away from 18- to 21-year-olds, which it’s hard to see as anything other than a punishment for the crime of not voting at the same rate as their parents and grandparents. Some of those affected will undoubtedly end up homeless, and could even cost the state more as a result.
William Hague once said that the Conservative party had two states: complacency and panic. So far, their second term has done nothing to disprove that claim. But really, what an unappealing prospect – a government that is alternately slothful and slapdash. Surely we deserve better.William Hague once said that the Conservative party had two states: complacency and panic. So far, their second term has done nothing to disprove that claim. But really, what an unappealing prospect – a government that is alternately slothful and slapdash. Surely we deserve better.