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U.S. peace hopes for Syria on the line in Munich Progress reported in Munich talks on cease-fire in Syria
(about 3 hours later)
MUNICH — Secretary of State John F. Kerry searched Thursday for common ground amid stalled Syrian peace efforts, holding meetings with a key Syrian opposition envoy and Russia’s foreign minister even as Moscow pressed ahead with airstrikes to aid its ally in Damascus. MUNICH — Efforts to reach a cease-fire in Syria’s civil war appeared to be making progress late Thursday, as international leaders here considered a plan that would include staged implementation next week of Russian airdrops of relief supplies to at least 15 besieged towns and cities, humanitarian access by the United Nations on the ground, and a stop to Russian and Syrian government airstrikes.
Kerry’s outreach faces considerable challenges. Russia and the Syrian opposition appear far apart, threatening the wider efforts to find a political path to end five years of conflict in Syria. It remained unclear whether Russia, which had proposed a cease-fire by March 1, would agree to an earlier time frame.
Riyad Hijab, the former Syrian prime minister who heads the opposition negotiating committee, has said key demands must be met before the group could consider talks with the Russian-backed Syrian government. They include a halt to Russian airstrikes on rebel-held and civilian zones and the opening of humanitarian corridors to allow safe passage of aid to besieged areas. After a day of consultations among various participants, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov huddled with his counterpart from Iran, Russia’s ally in backing the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad, and Secretary of State John F. Kerry sat down with allies backing the Syrian opposition, before all parties gathered for a joint meeting Thursday night.
Russia, which began airstrikes last year to help Syria’s government, claims the attacks aim to clear Aleppo, a major city in western Syria, of what Moscow calls terrorist fighters. The effort is considered a last chance to stop the carnage in Syria that has left hundreds of thousands dead and sent millions fleeing from the country. What was already a desperate situation in Syria has greatly worsened over the past few weeks, as massive Russian bombardment in and around the city of Aleppo has scattered opposition fighters and driven tens of thousands of civilians toward the barricaded Turkish border.
Tens of thousands of Syrians fleeing the attacks have streamed toward Turkey, but they have encountered a barricaded border as Turkish leaders engage in a showdown with Western allies over the refugees and steps to end the Syrian crisis.
[Syrians stranded between airstrikes and locked border fence][Syrians stranded between airstrikes and locked border fence]
“We’re going to have a serious conversation about all aspects about what’s happening in Syria,” Kerry said before a closed-door session with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Participants said they had noted a new resolve in U.S. willingness to stand up to the Russians, who agreed in December to a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire in conjunction with peace negotiations.
“Obviously, at some point in time,” Kerry continued, “we want to make progress on the issues of humanitarian access and cease-fire.” The administration has been under pressure from its allies to stop the flow into Europe of what are now nearly 1 million refugees. Partners in the Middle East have also openly despaired of what they see as declining U.S. leadership in the region.
Lavrov told reporters that Russia had already proposed a “quite specific” cease-fire plan. Beyond its recent appearance of allowing Russia to act with impunity, the administration has long resisted calls from regional partners to increase its relatively low level of military aid and training to opposition forces, even as President Obama insisted that Assad would have to step down. Failure of the Munich effort would present the administration with a decision on whether to reverse course and increase its involvement.
“We will wait for the American response before we take it to” the International Syria Support Group of 17 nations that plans to meet in Munich later Thursday. Some diplomats here noted that the Russians may now be more amenable to an early cease-fire, since the airstrikes and Iran-aided ground operations have achieved their goal of regaining control for Assad over much of the country’s western population centers. This month’s bombing has driven opposition forces out of areas of Aleppo and the surrounding province they had occupied almost since the civil war began in earnest four years ago.
U.S. officials have said that the Russian plan, conveyed to Washington earlier in the week, proposed a March 1 deadline for a cease-fire. It further seeks agreement that there will be no international monitoring on the ground or attempts to adjudicate blame for pre-cease-fire actions. “Everybody’s calculations have shifted” following events of the past few weeks, one diplomat said. The diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the still-tentative plan and closed-door negotiations.
While U.S. officials said the extended deadline was unacceptable, they said they had not responded yet with specifics. Kerry met with Lavrov earlier in the day for nearly 90 minutes. “We’re going to have a serious conversation about all aspects about what’s happening in Syria,” he said before reporters were ushered out of the room. “Obviously, at some point in time,” he said, “we want to make progress on the issues of humanitarian access and cease-fire.”
In Moscow, a Kremlin spokesman refused to address reports that Russia had offered a March 1 bombing stop. The plan, drafted by United Nations envoy Staffan de Mistura, in consultation with Kerry and the Syrian opposition, assumes that Assad’s government, which is not represented here, would be pressed by Russia to agree. Parties to the talks said that the first relief drops could occur as early as this weekend.
[U.S. official tours Syrian devastation][U.S. official tours Syrian devastation]
A U.N. resolution in December called for a cease-fire and humanitarian access. Before meeting Lavrov, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, urged Russia and other backers of the resolution to “stick to their own commitments.” Opposition leaders said they were optimistic after talks with Kerry and others. “We’ll wait two days and see if all the promises they made are kept,” said Salem al-Meslet, spokesman for a negotiating team appointed by the Syrian opposition to open U.N.-sponsored talks with the government. “Hopefully, we’ll see something by Monday.”
“It’s not just for the sake of diplomacy or the sake of geopolitics,” Mogherini said. “We’re not talking about numbers here, we’re talking about people.” Meslet said the opposition would return to talks with the government if the plan is implemented. But, he said, “we have to see something — food go to children who are starving to death. Then we’ll go sit at the same table” with the government.
Russia’s Defense Ministry was defiant about its intervention in Syria, saying it would not yield to Western entreaties to stop an effort that has given President Bashar al-Assad powerful momentum on the battlefield. “I can’t stop Putin,” he said of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Can you say no to Putin?” he said, referring to the United States and its allies.
Western efforts at “political transitions” — the subject of the Support Group meeting in Munich — led to bloodshed and refugees, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, a Defense Ministry spokesman, told reporters in Moscow. The initial session of the negotiations was suspended last week after the opposition protested the lack of humanitarian access and that escalated Russian airstrikes near Aleppo.
Konashenkov said Russian military planes have flown 510 combat missions in the last week, destroying “1,888 terrorist facilities.” He gave no indication that Russia plans to stop anytime soon. Under the draft plan as it stood early Thursday, Russia would take responsibility for humanitarian airdrops, avoiding potential problems of U.S. or allied military aircraft flying over combat zones in sovereign Syrian territory. Although the United States and its allies have conducted thousands of airstrikes over Syria in the past 18 months, all have targeted the Islamic State in areas beyond the government’s control, and with its tacit acceptance.
He denied that Russia was bombing civilians, saying that “no matter how long one baits terrorists, they will not become opposition members.” Two committees would be formed of the 17 countries that are part of the so-called International Syrian Support Group, or ISSG, formed in November at Kerry’s urging. The group, including Russia and Iran in addition to U.S. allies in Europe and the region surrounding Syria, developed a formula for peace talks between the Syrian government and the opposition, with a U.N. resolution mandating its terms for a cease-fire, formation of a transition government and eventual negotiations.
Responding to a charge Wednesday from Col. Steve Warren, the Baghdad-based spokesmen for coalition operations in Iraq and Syria, that Russian planes had bombed two hospitals in Aleppo, Konashenkov said two U.S. planes were actually responsible. The Munich meeting, the fourth the group has held, was initially intended to bless and monitor talks that were supposed to start early this month. Instead, it has turned into an emergency session to put the process back on track.
“There were no coalition airstrikes in or near Aleppo on Wednesday, Feb 10. Any claim that the coalition had aircraft in the area is a fabrication,” Warren countered on Thursday.
[Kerry’s struggles over Syria][Kerry’s struggles over Syria]
Kerry is trying to find a way to stop the fighting and resume U.N.-sponsored negotiations over a transition government in Syria that were suspended early this month. One of the new committees would monitor humanitarian access and deliveries, troubleshooting and adjudicating claims of interference. The second committee would monitor the cease-fire. Details of what some diplomats called a less-formal “cessation of hostilities” have still not been firmed up.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, who met with Kerry earlier in the week in Washington, and again Wednesday night in Munich, also attended the meeting with Hijab. The Saudis have closely advised opposition negotiators. The goal is to ensure that charges of violations would be directed to the committee, rather than responded to in kind. Any fighting group that signed on to and complied with a cease-fire would be exempt from airstrikes. It presumes that the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, considered by all parties to be terrorist groups, would not participate. Opposition groups embedded with al-Nusra in the anti-Assad fight would have to decide whether to sever those links and separate themselves geographically from the militants.
Along with Lavrov and Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, Kerry will chair a meeting with representatives of the 17 European and regional governments that are sponsoring the negotiations. Although isolated, small-scale fighting is likely to continue, the deal would ideally stop the use of heavy weapons, including tanks and antitank missiles. The United States and its partners would continue the current level of opposition training and equipping, so as not to leave the rebels at a disadvantage if the cease-fire collapses. Russia would presumably continue its support for the Syrian government.
If the group fails to agree on a way forward that is acceptable to the opposition, the peace process appears likely to collapse. Despite the diplomatic talks here, both real and verbal combat continued Thursday. Russia’s Defense Ministry was defiant about its intervention in Syria, saying it would not yield to Western entreaties to stop an effort that has given Assad powerful momentum on the battlefield.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose government also backs Assad, arrived Thursday in Munich to attend the meeting.
In Brussels, meanwhile, NATO leaders grappled on two fronts: the battle against the Islamic State and other militant factions in Syria and Iraq, and the waves of migrants fleeing Middle East violence.
NATO dispatched warships to patrol the eastern Aegean Sea, seeking to disrupt people-smuggling networks between Turkey and Greek islands.
[NATO to confront human-smuggling networks in Aegean][NATO to confront human-smuggling networks in Aegean]
Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter also met with defense ministers from the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State to ask for more contributions to the effort. Carter and Army Gen. Sean MacFarland, his top commander leading the effort from Baghdad, were scheduled to brief the group on the current situation and plans to eventually rout Islamic State forces from their headquarters in Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, in Syria. Western efforts at “political transitions” led to bloodshed and refugees, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, a Defense Ministry spokesman, told reporters in Moscow. He gave no indication that Russia plans to stop its combat air missions any time soon.
Asked how his push to accelerate the fight against the Islamic State might overlap with attempts in Munich to arrange a Syrian cease-fire, Carter indicated that he did not want to get out in front of Kerry. Konashenkov denied that Russia was bombing civilians, saying that “no matter how long one baits terrorists, they will not become opposition members.”
“Our focus here is going to be on counter-ISIL,” Carter said, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “It would certainly help to de-fuel extremism if the Syrian civil war came to an end.” Responding to a charge Wednesday from Col. Steve Warren, the Baghdad-based spokesmen for coalition operations in Iraq and Syria, that Russian planes had bombed two hospitals in Aleppo, Konashenkov said two U.S. planes were actually responsible.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among countries that have said they will contribute ground troops — most likely Special Operations forces — in Syria as part of a coalition plan against the Islamic State that they have said has not yet been forthcoming from the United States. “There were no coalition airstrikes in or near Aleppo on Wednesday, Feb 10. Any claim that the coalition had aircraft in the area is a fabrication,” Warren countered on Thursday.
U.S. allies have grown increasingly critical of the Obama administration’s strategy in the fight against the militants, as well as in negotiations to stop the civil war, now in its fourth year, between Assad’s forces and rebels seeking to overthrow his government.
Michael Birnbaum in Moscow, Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Griff Witte in Brussels and Brian Murphy in Washington contributed to this report.Michael Birnbaum in Moscow, Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Griff Witte in Brussels and Brian Murphy in Washington contributed to this report.