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Key players' conflicting views undermine Syria peace efforts Key players' conflicting views undermine Syria peace efforts
(7 months later)
Syria’s war is about barrel bombs, sieges and atrocities. But words matter, too. That is especially true in Munich as the countries most involved – the 20-strong International Syria Support Group (ISSG) – meet on Thursday for another high-stakes session to try to hammer out ways to end the crisis. Profound differences bedevil those efforts. Failure could mean the disaster spinning even further out of control. Here we look at the positions of the main players.Syria’s war is about barrel bombs, sieges and atrocities. But words matter, too. That is especially true in Munich as the countries most involved – the 20-strong International Syria Support Group (ISSG) – meet on Thursday for another high-stakes session to try to hammer out ways to end the crisis. Profound differences bedevil those efforts. Failure could mean the disaster spinning even further out of control. Here we look at the positions of the main players.
United StatesUnited States
Washington is pushing for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian relief. But Barack Obama and John Kerry face mounting criticism that they have abandoned calls for a political transition in Damascus, avoiding the thorny issue of Bashar al-Assad’s future. Kerry is accused of naively believing that Russia can be trusted. Talk of a plan B hints at expanded US-led military action. But that has little domestic support or international credibility. The US has only acted itself against Islamic State and provided sporadic, mostly secret and now diminishing support to mainstream rebels.Washington is pushing for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian relief. But Barack Obama and John Kerry face mounting criticism that they have abandoned calls for a political transition in Damascus, avoiding the thorny issue of Bashar al-Assad’s future. Kerry is accused of naively believing that Russia can be trusted. Talk of a plan B hints at expanded US-led military action. But that has little domestic support or international credibility. The US has only acted itself against Islamic State and provided sporadic, mostly secret and now diminishing support to mainstream rebels.
Related: State Department says Russia's claims of US air strikes in Aleppo are 'false'
RussiaRussia
Moscow has offered to support a ceasefire from 1 March. Vladimir Putin insists he is fighting “terrorism” but since last October has in fact been using his air force to defeat the anti-Assad opposition and help the Syrian leader regain control of his borders with Turkey and Jordan. Russia ignores charges that its strategy is a deliberate attempt to sabotage prospects for a political solution to end the five-year war. Two more weeks of unchallenged airstrikes around Aleppo could go a long way to achieving that undeclared but increasingly obvious goal.Moscow has offered to support a ceasefire from 1 March. Vladimir Putin insists he is fighting “terrorism” but since last October has in fact been using his air force to defeat the anti-Assad opposition and help the Syrian leader regain control of his borders with Turkey and Jordan. Russia ignores charges that its strategy is a deliberate attempt to sabotage prospects for a political solution to end the five-year war. Two more weeks of unchallenged airstrikes around Aleppo could go a long way to achieving that undeclared but increasingly obvious goal.
United NationsUnited Nations
UN plans agreed in Vienna last October include a timetable for intra-Syrian peace talks, a new constitution and elections. Three days of indirect talks in Geneva were suspended because of demands by the Syrian opposition for the implementation of UN security council resolution 2254, which calls for an end to airstrikes, the release of detainees and unimpeded humanitarian access to besieged areas. A ceasefire would still allow attacks on Isis and Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaida’s Syrian affiliate, as the groups are banned by the UN.UN plans agreed in Vienna last October include a timetable for intra-Syrian peace talks, a new constitution and elections. Three days of indirect talks in Geneva were suspended because of demands by the Syrian opposition for the implementation of UN security council resolution 2254, which calls for an end to airstrikes, the release of detainees and unimpeded humanitarian access to besieged areas. A ceasefire would still allow attacks on Isis and Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaida’s Syrian affiliate, as the groups are banned by the UN.
SyriaSyria
The government in Damascus says it will not negotiate with enemies it says are all terrorists. It is not represented at the Munich talks. Nor are anti-Assad rebels who fear they are being abandoned by the US because a ceasefire and humanitarian aid convoys will neither address Syria’s political future nor hasten Assad’s departure. Mainstream opposition forces, including Islamist groups, risk losing credibility with their own people if political engagement does not produce results on the ground; their fear is that support will bleed away to Jabhat al-Nusra and Isis – reinforcing Assad’s narrative of a choice between him and jihadi fanaticism.The government in Damascus says it will not negotiate with enemies it says are all terrorists. It is not represented at the Munich talks. Nor are anti-Assad rebels who fear they are being abandoned by the US because a ceasefire and humanitarian aid convoys will neither address Syria’s political future nor hasten Assad’s departure. Mainstream opposition forces, including Islamist groups, risk losing credibility with their own people if political engagement does not produce results on the ground; their fear is that support will bleed away to Jabhat al-Nusra and Isis – reinforcing Assad’s narrative of a choice between him and jihadi fanaticism.
TurkeyTurkey
Ankara is talking tough about the crisis, hinting at military intervention or at least the creation of a border safe zone while refusing to take in refugees fleeing from the Aleppo area – having already accepted 2 million Syrians. It is especially alarmed by Russian and US backing for Syrian Kurds because of the effect on its own Kurdish minority, after insisting that Kurds be excluded from the Geneva talks. Turkey is working closely with Saudi Arabia but unlikely to act without Nato agreement.Ankara is talking tough about the crisis, hinting at military intervention or at least the creation of a border safe zone while refusing to take in refugees fleeing from the Aleppo area – having already accepted 2 million Syrians. It is especially alarmed by Russian and US backing for Syrian Kurds because of the effect on its own Kurdish minority, after insisting that Kurds be excluded from the Geneva talks. Turkey is working closely with Saudi Arabia but unlikely to act without Nato agreement.
Related: Britain accuses Russia of trying to carve out mini-state for Assad in Syria
Britain/EUBritain/EU
The UK is calling for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian access but insisting crucially on a parallel political process that leads to Assad’s eventual departure, as Philip Hammond told the Syrian opposition on Wednesday. Privately the UK fears the US has moved too far towards Russia’s position. France’s outgoing foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, was publicly scathing about the lack of US commitment. Angela Merkel and other EU leaders are increasingly preoccupied by the refugee crisis, which has catapulted Syria’s war to the top of their own domestic agendas.The UK is calling for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian access but insisting crucially on a parallel political process that leads to Assad’s eventual departure, as Philip Hammond told the Syrian opposition on Wednesday. Privately the UK fears the US has moved too far towards Russia’s position. France’s outgoing foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, was publicly scathing about the lack of US commitment. Angela Merkel and other EU leaders are increasingly preoccupied by the refugee crisis, which has catapulted Syria’s war to the top of their own domestic agendas.
IranIran
Iran, Assad’s chief regional ally, has been part of the ISSG since it was constituted in Vienna in November last year, but has shown no sign of decreasing its direct military and financial backing for Damascus or pressuring the Syrian president to make concessions. It too condemns all Syrian rebels as terrorists and claims to back calls for a ceasefire. It remains close to Russia’s position in style and substance. Its close ally, the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, has also been crucial to Assad’s military gains.Iran, Assad’s chief regional ally, has been part of the ISSG since it was constituted in Vienna in November last year, but has shown no sign of decreasing its direct military and financial backing for Damascus or pressuring the Syrian president to make concessions. It too condemns all Syrian rebels as terrorists and claims to back calls for a ceasefire. It remains close to Russia’s position in style and substance. Its close ally, the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, has also been crucial to Assad’s military gains.
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
The Saudis, generally in assertive mood, have declared their readiness to send ground forces to fight Isis in an effort to both advertise their own determination and stiffen wavering US resolve. The UAE and Bahrain, its allies in the war in Yemen, have followed suit. Washington has responded cautiously, fearing an attempt to draw it more deeply into the Syrian morass than Obama wishes in his final months in office. Riyadh’s deteriorating relations with Tehran have also made achieving broad diplomatic consensus even more difficult.The Saudis, generally in assertive mood, have declared their readiness to send ground forces to fight Isis in an effort to both advertise their own determination and stiffen wavering US resolve. The UAE and Bahrain, its allies in the war in Yemen, have followed suit. Washington has responded cautiously, fearing an attempt to draw it more deeply into the Syrian morass than Obama wishes in his final months in office. Riyadh’s deteriorating relations with Tehran have also made achieving broad diplomatic consensus even more difficult.