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U.S. and Russia Announce Plan for Humanitarian Aid and a Cease-Fire in Syria U.S. and Russia Announce Plan for Humanitarian Aid and a Cease-Fire in Syria
(about 2 hours later)
MUNICH — Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that they had agreed on the delivery over the next few days of desperately needed aid to besieged Syrian cities, to be followed by a cease-fire that is supposed to clear the way for renewed peace talks. MUNICH — Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that they had agreed on the delivery over the next few days of desperately needed aid to besieged Syrian cities, to be followed by a “cessation of hostilities” within a week on the way to a more formal cease-fire.
“We have agreed to implement a nationwide cessation of hostilities in one week’s time,” Mr. Kerry said. “That is ambitious.” “We have agreed to implement a nationwide cessation of hostilities in one week’s time,” Mr. Kerry said early Friday morning, after all-day meetings. “That is ambitious.”
“The real test is whether all the parties honor those commitments,” he said, sitting next to Mr. Lavrov. “The real test is whether all the parties honor those commitments,” he said, sitting next to Mr. Lavrov, the two men doing their best to appear cooperative after weeks of trading accusations over the accelerated Russian air campaign that has given new support to the government of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.
If executed, the agreement, forged by the International Syria Support Group, would mark the first sustained and formally declared halt to fighting in Syria since the civil war began in 2011, early in the Arab uprisings. But the cease-fire would be partial — it excludes the Islamic State and the Nusra group, both designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations — and highly fragile. If executed, the agreement, forged by the International Syria Support Group, would mark the first sustained and formally declared halt to fighting in Syria since the civil war began in 2011, early in the Arab uprisings. But even a formal cease-fire would be partial — it excludes the Islamic State and the Nusra Front, both designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations — and highly fragile.
Mr. Kerry and Mr. Lavrov could not say whether leaders of all the fractious rebel groups have agreed to go along. At moments during a nearly hourlong news conference Mr. Kerry and Mr. Lavrov used the phrase “cessation of hostilities” and “cease-fire” interchangeably. But Mr. Kerry acknowledged the first was more temporary, and “a cease-fire is more permanent,” a recognized series of steps in international law.
Of more concern to American officials, the cease-fire would essentially freeze in place the recent battlefield gains that President Bashar al Assad’s forces have made with the help of Russian airstrikes. The city of Aleppo, in rebel hands for four years, has been encircled by Mr. Assad’s troops and bombed by Russian aircraft. What he envisions a week from now, Mr. Kerry said, “is a pause.” But the practical effect should be “ending hostile activity” while food is airdropped and driven into war-torn areas. Most are held by the government, some by rebel groups.
There are many reasons to question whether either the relief effort or a meaningful cease-fire will come to pass, or achieve the goal of ending a five-year-long conflict.There are many reasons to question whether either the relief effort or a meaningful cease-fire will come to pass, or achieve the goal of ending a five-year-long conflict.
But the announcement early Friday in Munich marked the first time there was hope of a break in the violence since the civil war broke out in 2011. And it would mark the first large-scale aid to the country, from where millions have fled. But the announcement early Friday in Munich marked the first time there was hope of a break in the violence since the civil war began in 2011. And it would be the first large-scale aid to the country, from where 4.4 million have fled and millions more are displaced inside Syria.
In the daylong meetings, all the major players seemed to recognize that Syria had reached a breaking point. Yet neither Mr. Kerry nor Mr. Lavrov could say whether leaders of all the fractious rebel groups have agreed to go along, or how Mr. Assad’s government would comply. And it is clear that the two nations still have a sharp difference of opinion over which groups constitute “terrorists”; the Russians have been bombing some rebel groups that the United States has been supplying, arguing that they are linked to the Nusra Front or other terrorist organizations.
There is no evidence that difference has been resolved.
Timing is critical for all sides. Russia proposed earlier this week starting a cease-fire in early March. Some American officials say privately they are concerned that Russia would use the time to help Mr. Assad’s forces, aided by the Iranian military, to seize more territory.
Even if they did not, any formal cease-fire could essentially freeze in place the recent battlefield gains that Mr. Assad’s forces have made with the help of Russian airstrikes. In the city of Aleppo, divided for four years between government and insurgent forces, the rebel-held Eastern section has been bombed by Russian aircraft as government troops attempt to encircle it.
Mr. Kerry bristled at the suggestion that by agreeing to the cessation of hostilities in the next week now he was acceding to Mr. Assad’s recent territorial gains, or setting the stage for Mr. Assad to create a rump Syrian state comprised major population centers.
“Yes, I agree the bombing the of past few weeks has made a difference for Assad,” he said. “But that difference does not end the war.” The more territory Mr. Assad seizes, Mr. Kerry said, “the more successful he is in creating terrorists.”
Both the humanitarian aid and the cessation of hostilities will be monitored by task forces, the two men said. Mr. Kerry said he and Mr. Lavrov would chair the task force monitoring cease-fire activities, and receive reports of violations. An earlier Russian proposal contained no verification measures.
Mr. Lavrov, for his part, was defensive about accusations from human rights groups that Russian bombs have been hitting civilian targets, sending tens of thousands of people fleeing across the border in recent days. “Some do lie,” he said of the groups. He suggested some news organizations were bending the facts as well, but he did not name them.
He also said that the agreement announced early Friday called for more military cooperation between the Russian and American military, something the United States has resisted. But he did not elaborate on what form that cooperation would take.