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Syria war cessation deal relies on something in short supply: trust Syria war cessation deal relies on something in short supply: trust
(35 minutes later)
International agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Syria and the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid has been greeted by scepticism and hostility. Even John Kerry, the US secretary of state, who announced the Munich deal early on Friday morning, sounded dubious about “paper commitments”. International agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Syria and the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid has been greeted with scepticism and hostility. Even John Kerry, the US secretary of state, who announced the Munich deal early on Friday morning, sounded dubious about “paper commitments”.
Eight hours of diplomatic haggling in the Bavarian capital produced less than the “all or nothing” outcome Kerry had promised. The International Syria Support Group settled for a fragile outcome based on the lowest common denominator – hardly surprising for a body composed of the staunchest supporters and bitterest enemies of Bashar al-Assad. Eight hours of diplomatic haggling in the Bavarian capital produced less than the “all or nothing” outcome that Kerry had promised. The International Syria Support Group (ISSG) settled for a fragile outcome based on the lowest common denominator – hardly surprising for a body composed of the staunchest supporters and bitterest enemies of Bashar al-Assad.
Not only is a cessation of hostilities less solid than a formal ceasefire, there is also no provision for monitoring or enforcement. And even that was deferred for a week – albeit sooner than the 1 March date Moscow had floated. But there was no mention of the Russian airstrikes that have brought Syrian rebels to the point of despair. Not only is a cessation of hostilities less solid than a formal ceasefire, there is no provision for monitoring or enforcement. And even that was deferred for a week – albeit sooner than the 1 March date that Moscow had floated. But there was no mention of the Russian airstrikes that have brought Syrian rebels to the point of despair.
Related: 'No one believes it': Aleppo losing hope amid doubts over ceasefireRelated: 'No one believes it': Aleppo losing hope amid doubts over ceasefire
Working out the modalities for a cessation involves some thorny questions: Islamic State (Isis) and Jabhat al-Nusra are formally excluded from any ceasefire, so that requires a “ceasefire task force” chaired by the US and Russia to delineate territory held by them. Working out the modalities for a cessation involves some thorny questions: Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra are formally excluded from any ceasefire, so that requires a “ceasefire taskforce” chaired by the US and Russia to delineate territory held by them.
Free Syrian Army units will likely be asked to provide intelligence on Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaida, which often holds adjacent sectors to them on the front lines. The Americans will pass the intelligence on to the Russians to agree on location and targeting. “That’s an invitation to civil war,” one Syrian analyst warned. Free Syrian Army units will likely be asked to provide intelligence on al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaida, which often holds adjacent sectors to them on the frontlines. The Americans will pass the intelligence on to the Russians to agree on location and targeting. “That’s an invitation to civil war,” one Syrian analyst warned.
Nusra, with a strong presence in west Aleppo and Idlib, will be the main sticking point. “It will be hard to actually produce ceasefires where it most counts – or for the west to meaningfully pressure Russia on this front,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Al-Nusra, with a strong presence in west Aleppo and Idlib, will be the main sticking point. Julien Barnes-Dacey of the European Council on Foreign Relations said: “It will be hard to actually produce ceasefires where it most counts – or for the west to meaningfully pressure Russia on this front.”
Related: Syrian opposition greets news of truce with guarded optimismRelated: Syrian opposition greets news of truce with guarded optimism
Non-compliance could lead to “the exclusion of parties from arrangements for the cessation of hostilities and the protection it affords them”, the ISSG said. That could mean other rebel units being legitimately attacked by Syrian government or allied forces. Nusra may also draw support away from other groups that have been discredited by agreeing to negotiate. Non-compliance could lead to “the exclusion of parties from arrangements for the cessation of hostilities and the protection it affords them”, the ISSG said. That could mean other rebel units being legitimately attacked by Syrian government or allied forces. Al-Nusra may also draw support away from other groups that have been discredited by agreeing to negotiate.
Nor is it clear how these conditions might be imposed on Hezbollah or Iranian and Shia militia forces fighting on Assad’s side; or, on the other side of the divide, whether Saudi Arabia and Turkey would apply any pressure to the powerful Islamist groups they support, such as Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam.Nor is it clear how these conditions might be imposed on Hezbollah or Iranian and Shia militia forces fighting on Assad’s side; or, on the other side of the divide, whether Saudi Arabia and Turkey would apply any pressure to the powerful Islamist groups they support, such as Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam.
Aid deliveries are the most detailed part of the ISSG plan – balanced to include areas besieged by Isis, mainstream rebels and government forces. ISSG members are to “use their influence with all parties on the ground” to allow access. The UN, criticised in the past for not being forceful enough, will play the central role.Aid deliveries are the most detailed part of the ISSG plan – balanced to include areas besieged by Isis, mainstream rebels and government forces. ISSG members are to “use their influence with all parties on the ground” to allow access. The UN, criticised in the past for not being forceful enough, will play the central role.
Another big question is whether Russia’s commitments will bind Assad. One of the enduring themes of the Syrian crisis is a belief in the west that Moscow will somehow “deliver” Damascus. It hasn’t happened yet in any significant way.Another big question is whether Russia’s commitments will bind Assad. One of the enduring themes of the Syrian crisis is a belief in the west that Moscow will somehow “deliver” Damascus. It hasn’t happened yet in any significant way.
And trust is in short supply. “My suspicion is that Russians will try to do just enough to put the onus on the opposition to implement a cessation of hostilities,” said one western diplomat. “And when the opposition can’t do it fully, the Russians will use that as an excuse to scale up their operations again. And trust is in short supply. One western diplomat said: “My suspicion is that [the] Russians will try to do just enough to put the onus on the opposition to implement a cessation of hostilities. And when the opposition can’t do it fully, the Russians will use that as an excuse to scale up their operations again.
Related: Syrian president Bashar al-Assad vows to retake whole country
“Essentially, what the Russians are doing is taking more territory on the ground for the regime, then dangling a cessation under worse circumstances, looking for an excuse to take more and then dangling another cessation. They’ll keep doing this to maximise the starting position for talks. Or until someone stands up to them.”“Essentially, what the Russians are doing is taking more territory on the ground for the regime, then dangling a cessation under worse circumstances, looking for an excuse to take more and then dangling another cessation. They’ll keep doing this to maximise the starting position for talks. Or until someone stands up to them.”
Mainstream rebel groups fear that, whatever nomenclature is used, a commitment to end violence is being “de-linked” from the negotiations they insist are necessary to bring about a political transition and, crucially, to remove Assad. Mainstream rebel groups fear that, whatever nomenclature is used, a commitment to end violence is being “de-linked” from the negotiations that they insist are necessary to bring about a political transition and, crucially, to remove Assad.
The first test of this highly conditional agreement will be on the ground in Syria, where tens of thousands of people are in desperate need of help. Hostilities will not end suddenly. Attention will quickly switch back to Geneva to see if enough has happened to allow a return to the suspended UN peace talks, and another effort to end the war as it approaches its fifth anniversary.The first test of this highly conditional agreement will be on the ground in Syria, where tens of thousands of people are in desperate need of help. Hostilities will not end suddenly. Attention will quickly switch back to Geneva to see if enough has happened to allow a return to the suspended UN peace talks, and another effort to end the war as it approaches its fifth anniversary.