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Facing Allies’ Doubt, John Kerry Voices Confidence in Syria Cease-Fire Facing Allies’ Doubt, John Kerry Voices Confidence in Syria Cease-Fire
(about 1 hour later)
MUNICH — Secretary of State John Kerry, facing both anger and skepticism from European allies about the willingness of the United States to intervene more deeply in the Syrian civil war, promised on Saturday to help close off the routes migrants are taking to Europe and warned Russia that its military effort to prop up President Bashar al-Assad of Syria would ultimately fail. MUNICH — Secretary of State John Kerry, facing both anger and skepticism from European allies about the willingness of the United States to intervene more deeply in the Syrian civil war, promised on Saturday to help close off the routes migrants were taking to Europe and warned Russia that its military effort to prop up President Bashar al-Assad of Syria would ultimately fail.
Mr. Kerry’s comments came a day after he announced an agreement to send humanitarian relief to besieged cities in Syria and a “cessation of hostilities” within a week. Mr. Kerry’s comments at the annual Munich Security Conference here came a day after he announced an agreement to send humanitarian relief to besieged cities in Syria and a “cessation of hostilities” within a week.
On Saturday, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, an annual meeting of security officials and experts from Europe and beyond, he said “the trucks are loaded and ready to go” and said the only reason for a delay in the cease-fire was to work out details and communicate them to the many different forces, so the cease-fire does not begin with a breach. Whether the accord will halt Russian bombing in Syria is unclear, stirring deep doubt among Western allies and some nations in the Mideast. Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia added to the questions with a belligerent speech in which he recalled a famously sour address about the West’s treatment of Russia delivered by President Vladimir V. Putin to the security conference nine years ago.
But many officials involved in the formation of the agreement expressed skepticism that it would work — and if it did, that it would last. Meanwhile, Mr. Kerry found himself defending the United States against the charge that it has let Russia dominate Syria’s skies and reinsert itself as the central outside force in the Syrian war, rather than the United States. The world, Mr. Medvedev said, has “slipped into the era of a new Cold War.” He and other Russian speakers at the conference insisted that NATO was to blame, saying that the Western alliance was now speaking and acting as if Russia was an aggressor.
On Saturday, while meeting President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan, Mr. Kerry was overheard offering reassurances that his fragile plan would succeed. “We will make it work,” he said. He then said that he had heard that his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, had put the chances of success at 49 percent at an open meeting of the security conference here. Mr. Kerry, who is supposed to monitor compliance of the accord on Syria with Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, told leaders at the conference that delivery of humanitarian aid could start immediately. “The trucks are loaded and ready to go,” he said. The only reason for any delay in the cease-fire was to work out details and communicate them to the many different forces, so the cease-fire does not begin with a breach.
“I like his optimism,” Mr. Kerry said sarcastically. But many officials involved in the agreement expressed skepticism that it would work — and that if it did, that it would last. Meanwhile, Mr. Kerry found himself defending the United States against the charge that it has let Russia dominate Syria’s skies and reinsert itself as the central outside force in the Syrian war.
Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia on Saturday denied that his country had bombed civilians in its many sorties over Syria in recent weeks — directly contradicting the findings of many human rights groups. On Saturday, while meeting President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan, Mr. Kerry was overheard offering reassurances that his fragile plan would succeed. “We will make it work,” he said. He then said that he had heard that Mr. Lavrov had put the chances of success at 49 percent at an open meeting of the conference.
In a speech, Mr. Medvedev recalled a brusque appearance at the Munich conference in 2007 by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and dismissed what he termed accusations that Russia was bombing civilians. Both Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Lavrov gave speeches laced with warnings that the divisions between Russia and the West that seemed to evaporate after the fall of the Berlin Wall had returned. “I like his optimism,” Mr. Kerry said, with a note of sarcasm.
“We are slipping into the era of the Cold War,” Mr. Medvedev said, adding to a gloomy mood at the conference, which assembles hundreds of political leaders, diplomats, military and defense experts. Mr. Medvedev denied that his country had bombed civilians in its many sorties over Syria in recent weeks, directly contradicting the findings of many human rights groups.
Mr. Kerry’s more immediate agenda was reassuring the Europeans that the United States understood the huge stresses created by the arrival of a million refugees in Germany, many of whom passed through the main Munich train station, less than a mile from where Mr. Kerry spoke. “We in the United States aren’t sitting across the pond thinking somehow we’re immune,” he said. “The United States of America understands the near existential nature of this threat to the politics and fabric of life in Europe.” Alexander V. Grushko, Russia’s envoy to NATO, later suggested that Russia was not violating its commitment to hit only terrorist groups designated by the United Nations. Michael Fallon, the British defense minister, shot back that Mr. Grushko’s lengthy intervention “might have been more worthwhile” if “he had told us this bombing of innocent civilians is going to stop.”
Mr. Kerry noted that the Obama administration had decided to join a NATO mission to help intercept migrants at sea, mostly as they headed to Turkey. That is an effort to shut off the flow of migrants pouring into Germany, and the political upheaval that could cause. The exchanges added to a gloomy mood at the conference, with leaders deeply skeptical about Europe’s unity, its ability to cope with refugees, to stop the war in Syria or even defend its own borders.
Privately, Mr. Kerry has told his European colleagues that he is worried that the migrant crisis could pull apart the European Union. “He clearly is fearful that the great experiment of Europe could break on his watch,” one senior official who met him here said Saturday. As the highest ranking official from the United States, Mr. Kerry had the immediate task of reassuring the Europeans that the United States understood the huge stresses created by the arrival of a million refugees in Germany, many of whom passed through the main Munich train station less than a mile from where Mr. Kerry spoke.
Some American officials fear that Russia will allow through some humanitarian aid — mostly to relieve criticism of Moscow — but will continue airstrikes against Aleppo, which is partially encircled. “They may simply declare that Aleppo is filled with al Nusra terrorists,” said one senior administration official, referring to the Nusra Front, which the United States and Russia both consider a terrorist group, and keep “bombing just as they did last week.” “We in the United States aren’t sitting across the pond thinking somehow we’re immune,” he said. “The United States of America understands the near existential nature of this threat to the politics and fabric of life in Europe.”
Behind the scenes there was major tension between Mr. Kerry and Mr. Lavrov. The Russian foreign minister offered, once again, joint military operations to drop relief supplies and to conduct operations — a step the Pentagon is deeply concerned about taking. “Coordination” is impossible, they argued, at a time of sanctions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and efforts by Russia to intimidate the Baltic States, which the United States says it will spend more than $3 billion next year to counter. Mr. Kerry noted that the Obama administration had decided to join a NATO mission to help intercept migrants at sea, mostly as they headed across the Aegean Sea from Turkey to Greece. That is an effort to shut off the flow of migrants pouring into Germany, and the additional political upheaval that could cause.
Mr. Kerry, however, acknowledged that it was impossible to work without Russia, and he met Saturday afternoon with Mr. Lavrov. Mr. Kerry said in his speech that with Mr. Lavrov “we will work through where this targeting should take place, where it shouldn’t, how we work together in order to be effective so we don’t drive people away from the table. Because obviously, if people who are ready to be part of the political process are being bombed, we’re not going to have much of a conversation.” Privately, Mr. Kerry has told his European colleagues that he is worried that the migrant crisis could pull apart the European Union. “He clearly is fearful that the great experiment of Europe could break on his watch,” one senior official said Saturday.
Meanwhile, the United Nations mediator Staffan de Mistura said talks between the Syrian warring parties could resume only once the commitments made by the world powers two days ago can be verified. Talks began in early February in Geneva, only to be abruptly suspended a few days later, after the government and its allies refused the opposition’s demands to lift sieges. But most of the focus was on Russia, with a series of Western leaders suggesting that what is happening in Syria now is part of a continuum of Russian aggression, from Georgia in 2008 to Ukraine in 2014.
The Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, was perhaps the most direct critic of the American- Russian agreement. The problem, he said, is that the United States needs to go after Mr. Assad first. Once he relinquished power, he argues, it will be easier to focus on the Islamic State. Mr. Fallon was among the sharpest critics of Russia’s behavior, accusing it of “deliberately targeting civilians.”
Mr. Kerry also talked about the need for Mr. Assad to leave office, but he did not say when. “If that doesn’t stop, Russia should and will pay a price,” he said, warning that Moscow “risked becoming a pariah in the Middle East.”
Other leaders, including Mr. Kerry and the German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, were not as strident. But Mr. Medvedev’s speech, and a later appearance by Mr. Lavrov did nothing to dispel questions about Russia’s commitment to ceasing hostilities in Syria.
Some American officials fear that Russia will allow some humanitarian aid — mostly to relieve criticism of the Russian government — but will continue airstrikes against Aleppo, Syria, which is partially encircled. “They may simply declare that Aleppo is filled with Al Nusra terrorists,” said one senior administration official, referring to the Nusra Front, which is linked to Al Qaeda and which the United States and Russia both consider a terrorist group, and keep “bombing just as they did last week.” The official declined to speak on the record about internal discussions within the United States government.
Behind the scenes there was obvious tension between Mr. Kerry and Mr. Lavrov. The Russian foreign minister offered, once again, joint military operations to drop relief supplies and to conduct operations — a step the Pentagon is deeply concerned about taking. “Coordination” is impossible, American officials have argued, at a time of sanctions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, efforts by Russia to intimidate the Baltic States and the bombing of Syrian rebel groups that are receiving overt and covert support from the United States.
Mr. Kerry, however, acknowledged that it was impossible to work without Russia. In his speech, Mr. Kerry said that with Mr. Lavrov, “We will work through where this targeting should take place, where it shouldn’t, how we work together in order to be effective so we don’t drive people away from the table. Because obviously, if people who are ready to be part of the political process are being bombed, we’re not going to have much of a conversation.”
Meanwhile, the United Nations mediator, Staffan de Mistura, said talks among the Syrian warring parties could resume once the commitments made by the world powers two days ago were verified. Talks began this month in Geneva, only to be abruptly suspended a few days later after the Syrian government and its allies refused the opposition’s demand to lift military sieges.
The Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, was perhaps the most direct critic of the American-Russian agreement. The problem, he said, is that the United States needs to go after Mr. Assad first. Once he relinquished power, he argues, it will be easier to focus on the Islamic State.
“That is our objective, and we will achieve it,” he said. Mr. Kerry also talked about the need for Mr. Assad to leave office, but he did not say when.