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| Is Donald Trump unstoppable or can more mainstream rivals reel him in? | Is Donald Trump unstoppable or can more mainstream rivals reel him in? |
| (1 day later) | |
| The battle to stop Donald Trump from winning the Republican presidential nomination is sometimes compared, vividly, to a bucket of crabs. | The battle to stop Donald Trump from winning the Republican presidential nomination is sometimes compared, vividly, to a bucket of crabs. |
| Inside, a seething maul of establishment conservatives are all desperately fighting to climb their way out to where the voters can see them. | Inside, a seething maul of establishment conservatives are all desperately fighting to climb their way out to where the voters can see them. |
| Whenever one of them looks like making it to the rim, up comes a claw from below to yank them back down. | Whenever one of them looks like making it to the rim, up comes a claw from below to yank them back down. |
| Florida senator Marco Rubio came closest to daylight last week after a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses briefly made him favourite to emerge as a serious national challenger. | Florida senator Marco Rubio came closest to daylight last week after a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses briefly made him favourite to emerge as a serious national challenger. |
| Former Florida governor Jeb Bush tried to stop him, spending heavily on attack ads in Iowa, but it was New Jersey’s pugnacious crustacean Chris Christie who succeeded: ruining Rubio’s chances in the New Hampshire primary with a devastating putdown in the pre-election debate. | Former Florida governor Jeb Bush tried to stop him, spending heavily on attack ads in Iowa, but it was New Jersey’s pugnacious crustacean Chris Christie who succeeded: ruining Rubio’s chances in the New Hampshire primary with a devastating putdown in the pre-election debate. |
| It did nothing to help Christie, who has collapsed exhausted at the bottom of the bucket alongside other once-serious contenders like Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. | It did nothing to help Christie, who has collapsed exhausted at the bottom of the bucket alongside other once-serious contenders like Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. |
| Instead, attention is focused now on Governor John Kasich of Ohio, who became the latest to make it a few inches up the side with a strong showing in New Hampshire, but performs weakest of all of them in national polls. | Instead, attention is focused now on Governor John Kasich of Ohio, who became the latest to make it a few inches up the side with a strong showing in New Hampshire, but performs weakest of all of them in national polls. |
| So, to the biggest question of the 2016 race: can Trump, the blustering xenophobe with a shell thicker than an Alaskan king crab, actually win this thing? | |
| The mood is gloomy among the big backers and party chiefs of the Republican establishment but there is reassurance for them in the knowledge that Trump cannot continue to bask alone in the sunlight of national media attention. | The mood is gloomy among the big backers and party chiefs of the Republican establishment but there is reassurance for them in the knowledge that Trump cannot continue to bask alone in the sunlight of national media attention. |
| Related: Donald Trump's campaign simply tells angry people what they want to hear | Sam Thielman | Related: Donald Trump's campaign simply tells angry people what they want to hear | Sam Thielman |
| The first reason – and the last use of a strained metaphor – is that eventually only one of the crabs will be left alive. Already 10 have dropped out of the race and Ben Carson looks certain to follow. Whoever does eventually make it out of the bucket is going to be pretty battle-hardened. | The first reason – and the last use of a strained metaphor – is that eventually only one of the crabs will be left alive. Already 10 have dropped out of the race and Ben Carson looks certain to follow. Whoever does eventually make it out of the bucket is going to be pretty battle-hardened. |
| Crucially, whether it is Rubio, Kasich or Bush who wins the establishment battle, they are also likely to pick up supporters from the losers. | Crucially, whether it is Rubio, Kasich or Bush who wins the establishment battle, they are also likely to pick up supporters from the losers. |
| In New Hampshire, the combined support for all three exceeded the 35.3% of voters who plumped for Trump by more than three points. Throw in the votes for Christie and Carly Fiorina too, and the establishment crowd actually had enough votes between them to construct a slender overall majority. | In New Hampshire, the combined support for all three exceeded the 35.3% of voters who plumped for Trump by more than three points. Throw in the votes for Christie and Carly Fiorina too, and the establishment crowd actually had enough votes between them to construct a slender overall majority. |
| The second reason Trump does not have this election all to himself just yet is someone who does not fit neatly into any mainstream narrative: Ted Cruz. | The second reason Trump does not have this election all to himself just yet is someone who does not fit neatly into any mainstream narrative: Ted Cruz. |
| The maverick Texan senator has shown he is ready for primetime by beating Trump into second place in Iowa, with a strong performance among the powerful evangelical and Tea Party wings of the party, and an impressive third-place showing in the less religious state of New Hampshire. | The maverick Texan senator has shown he is ready for primetime by beating Trump into second place in Iowa, with a strong performance among the powerful evangelical and Tea Party wings of the party, and an impressive third-place showing in the less religious state of New Hampshire. |
| Though he remains nine points behind Trump in current averages of national polling, the primary is not a national election, rather, a series of state contests of differing size, shape and significance. | Though he remains nine points behind Trump in current averages of national polling, the primary is not a national election, rather, a series of state contests of differing size, shape and significance. |
| In South Carolina, the next primary up, on 20 February, Trump may well triumph again. His 16-point polling lead over Cruz is better than the national average, although the Texan has been closing it steadily since September. | In South Carolina, the next primary up, on 20 February, Trump may well triumph again. His 16-point polling lead over Cruz is better than the national average, although the Texan has been closing it steadily since September. |
| Similarly in Nevada, where the Republicans hold a caucus on 23 February, Trump is ahead of Cruz by about 13 points – although there has been little polling of either party since Christmas. | Similarly in Nevada, where the Republicans hold a caucus on 23 February, Trump is ahead of Cruz by about 13 points – although there has been little polling of either party since Christmas. |
| Related: John Kasich has been billed as moderate candidate, but his record is anything but | Related: John Kasich has been billed as moderate candidate, but his record is anything but |
| But all of these initial states – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada – are mere buildup to the huge test to follow on 1 March, known as Super Tuesday for its monumental importance. | |
| The 130 delegates on offer in those first four states are dwarfed by the 155 up for grabs in Texas alone on 1 March. There is also voting in highly populated southern states such as Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama and a number of important “purple” states – those that swing between parties in national elections – such as Colorado and Virginia. | The 130 delegates on offer in those first four states are dwarfed by the 155 up for grabs in Texas alone on 1 March. There is also voting in highly populated southern states such as Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama and a number of important “purple” states – those that swing between parties in national elections – such as Colorado and Virginia. |
| In total, 641 delegates are up for grabs in one night – more than half the 1,237 needed to win the nomination when the caravan pulls into the Republican convention held in Cleveland in mid-July. | In total, 641 delegates are up for grabs in one night – more than half the 1,237 needed to win the nomination when the caravan pulls into the Republican convention held in Cleveland in mid-July. |
| Public polling in these 13 Super Tuesday states is so far even harder to come by than it is in Nevada, but candidates have been taking the temperature behind the scenes. | Public polling in these 13 Super Tuesday states is so far even harder to come by than it is in Nevada, but candidates have been taking the temperature behind the scenes. |
| Cruz in particularly is feeling very confident about what has been dubbed the SEC primary – after the Southeastern Conference in college sports – because of the high proportion of religious conservatives in the south. Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and Oklahoma each have a higher percentage of evangelical Christians than Iowa, so they provide a natural audience for Cruz. | Cruz in particularly is feeling very confident about what has been dubbed the SEC primary – after the Southeastern Conference in college sports – because of the high proportion of religious conservatives in the south. Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and Oklahoma each have a higher percentage of evangelical Christians than Iowa, so they provide a natural audience for Cruz. |
| Trump may do better in some of the northern states voting at the same time, particularly among working-class white voters who worry about jobs and feel let down by globalisation and drawn to his anti-free-trade rhetoric. What little polling there is puts him 25 points ahead of Rubio in Massachusetts, and 18 points up in Michigan. | Trump may do better in some of the northern states voting at the same time, particularly among working-class white voters who worry about jobs and feel let down by globalisation and drawn to his anti-free-trade rhetoric. What little polling there is puts him 25 points ahead of Rubio in Massachusetts, and 18 points up in Michigan. |
| However, all these states that vote early share an important factor in common, which may prevent either Trump or Cruz from building up a commanding lead. | However, all these states that vote early share an important factor in common, which may prevent either Trump or Cruz from building up a commanding lead. |
| Under Republican party rules designed to prevent early states exerting undue influence on the process, only those voting after 15 March are allowed to award all their delegates to the winning candidate. | Under Republican party rules designed to prevent early states exerting undue influence on the process, only those voting after 15 March are allowed to award all their delegates to the winning candidate. |
| The proportional representation in place until then means, for example, that Marco Rubio has almost the same number of delegates so far as Ted Cruz even though he came in third and a lowly fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively rather than first and third. | The proportional representation in place until then means, for example, that Marco Rubio has almost the same number of delegates so far as Ted Cruz even though he came in third and a lowly fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively rather than first and third. |
| Donald Trump may be out in front for now, but even if he keeps it up over the next month, he will be a long way short of the 50% of delegates he needs to secure victory. | Donald Trump may be out in front for now, but even if he keeps it up over the next month, he will be a long way short of the 50% of delegates he needs to secure victory. |
| By the time the process does move to the winner-takes-all stage on 15 March, large and purple states like Florida and Ohio could prove as decisive as they do in general elections. | By the time the process does move to the winner-takes-all stage on 15 March, large and purple states like Florida and Ohio could prove as decisive as they do in general elections. |
| No Republican has ever been elected to the White House without winning Ohio in a general election, while Florida proved vital to the last winner, George W Bush. | No Republican has ever been elected to the White House without winning Ohio in a general election, while Florida proved vital to the last winner, George W Bush. |
| It is no surprise therefore that candidates from both states remain among the dwindling band who could still stop Trump. | It is no surprise therefore that candidates from both states remain among the dwindling band who could still stop Trump. |
| Above all, it is the property billionaire’s unpopularity with many more moderate swing voters that could prove his undoing, even in the primary. | Above all, it is the property billionaire’s unpopularity with many more moderate swing voters that could prove his undoing, even in the primary. |
| While some Cruz conservatives might prefer another outsider if their man stumbles after 1 March, it would still not be enough of an anti-establishment coalition to make up for Trump’s poor net favourability ratings among almost everyone else in the Republican family. | While some Cruz conservatives might prefer another outsider if their man stumbles after 1 March, it would still not be enough of an anti-establishment coalition to make up for Trump’s poor net favourability ratings among almost everyone else in the Republican family. |
| Trump has already forced the pundits to rip up tracts of received wisdom from elections past. And the public musings of veteran Republicans like Bob Dole, have revealed that the party might reluctantly swing behind him as a potential winner rather than get saddled with the reviled Cruz. | Trump has already forced the pundits to rip up tracts of received wisdom from elections past. And the public musings of veteran Republicans like Bob Dole, have revealed that the party might reluctantly swing behind him as a potential winner rather than get saddled with the reviled Cruz. |
| Yet, while attacking minorities and cursing at opponents may have ensured loyalty among hardcore Republicans, polling shows it has put off many more. | Yet, while attacking minorities and cursing at opponents may have ensured loyalty among hardcore Republicans, polling shows it has put off many more. |
| The tycoon/celebrity might be top of the charts right now, but the third of Republicans who currently say they will vote for him may prove to be the upper limit of peak Trump. | The tycoon/celebrity might be top of the charts right now, but the third of Republicans who currently say they will vote for him may prove to be the upper limit of peak Trump. |
| When a champion eventually emerges from the bottom of the crab bucket, the edifice may not look so unscalable either. | When a champion eventually emerges from the bottom of the crab bucket, the edifice may not look so unscalable either. |